In the March Monmouth/APP poll, 55% of NJ voters said Booker deserves to be reelected. Today, only 44% say the former Newark Mayor deserves his own six year term in Washington. Booker was elected last October to fill the remainder of the late Senator Frank Lautenberg’s term. He faces off with Republican Jeff Bell in November.
Booker would beat Bell easily if the election where today, 43%-23%, but 15% say they would vote for a third party candidate and 17% are unsure. But the vast majority of voters, 82%, don’t know enough about Bell for express a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him. The GOP nominee for U.S. Senate against Bill Bradley in 1978, Bell scored a surprise victory in the GOP primary for Senate last month. Of those who do know enough about Bell to express an opinion, the overwhelming impression, 2-1, is favorable.
Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray responded to my post this morning, Patrick Murray is emphatic that his next poll will be negative for Christie, about his quote in Mark Magyar’s anti-Chistie spin piece on NJSpotlight with an email asserting that his analysis was mischaracteriszed.
Patrick Murray
Murray provided an email exchange between himself and Magyar wherein Magyar admits his mistake and promises to fix it.
Murray said:
My assessment of what is likely to happen to public opinion going forward was based on an analysis of the underlying dynamics of my own poll released on April 2 — specifically the public’s underlying initial skepticism of the Mastro report was in my own poll and my analysis of potential movement in that opinion. Mark, by his own admission, mischaracterized my analysis, which was based on actual public opinion data that I have collected and analyzed.
In the NJSpotlight piece, Magyar quoted Murray as follows:
A Quinnipiac Poll released last week showed that 56 percent of New Jerseyans regarded the report as a “whitewash” and only 36 percent believed it to be a “legitimate investigation.” Even more ominously, 65 percent of voters knew of the Hoboken case, and 57 percent of that group believe Zimmer’s allegation that the Christie administration improperly withheld Sandy aid from her city because she refused to support the Rockefeller Group development.
Murray said he expected to see similar results in his next Monmouth Poll. “It will be negative. This is not going to be positive,” Murray stated emphatically, asserting that the controversy over the Mastro report clearly resonated with voters. “The question now with Christie is, ‘Have we hit a floor where a certain percentage of people will defend him no matter what, and everyone else will attack him?’”
Murray corrected Magyar in a email at 9;32 this morning:
7 of 10 New Jersey residents expect that Governor Chris Christie will run for president and he would take the state’s 14 electoral college votes against former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton or New York Governor Andrew Cuomo if the presidential election were today, according to a Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press Poll released this morning.
A Republican has not won New Jersey in a presidential election since George H.W. Bush was elected in 1988.
Christie is favored by 46% of registered voters, including 19% of Democrats and 51% of Independents, against Clinton who is favored by43%. 3% prefer another candidate and 8% are undecided. Against Cuomo, Christie’s margin widens to 19% of NJ registered voters, 52% -33%.
The Monmouth University Polling Institute surveyed 802 adult New Jersey residents from December 4 to 8. Yesterday, Monmouth released a narrative of the same survey which indicated that 65% of New Jersey resident approved of the job that Christie is doing.
In a column on RollCall yesterday, Washington pundit Stu Rothenberg chastised conservative websites that are excited about Steve Lonegan’s internal poll numbers suggesting his race to replace the late Senator Frank Lautenberg is in single digits.
“Watch the people who matter, not the folks who don’t,” Rothenberg wrote.
In New Jersey, Patrick Murray matters. The Executive Director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, Murray told Capitol Quickies’ Bob Jordon that the debates could be decisive.
If Cory Booker tries to give the impression he’s above all this, he might up end up being on the short end of the debate because that would play into the impression that people are starting to get, which is that Booker is not fully engaged in this campaign and that he’s looking ahead to his national career.’’
Lonegan and Booker debate first this afternoon at 1PM at ABC’s Trenton Bureau. The debate will be live streamed here and broadcast on 6ABC (Philadelphia market) on Sunday, October 6 at 9:30 am and on 7ABC in the New York market at 11am. Noticias Univision 41 will air the debate in Spanish on Friday, October 11 at 11pm.
The second and final debate between Booker and Lonegan will be on Wednesday, October 9 at Rowan University in Glassboro.
Booker responded on social media. He’s a kind politician, not a new kind of politician.
Hmmm. This post might give New Jersey more insight into Booker’s foreign policy philosophy than the Lonegan campaign’s “silly and childish” tweet during a Democratic primary debate. Let’s be kind to terrorists and our foreign enemies. That fits with the Obama/HClinton/Kerry foreign policy of apologizing for America.
Patrick Murray’s poll of likely voters continues to show Booker beating GOP nominee Steve Lonegan by double digits. Today’s 54%-38% Booker lead is nearly identical to the pre-primary 53%-37% lead the Newark Mayor enjoyed in June. In other words, Lonegan has gained no ground by deploying his anti-Obama campaign strategy in the last two months.
But despite his huge victory, the Democratic primary took something of a toll on Booker’s favorability ratings, which have dropped 12 points net since June. Given how easy Congressmen Frank Pallone and Rush Holt went on Booker during the primary, a 12 point drop is significant.
photo via facebook
In order to close the gap and make the Special Senate Election competitive, Lonegan needs to scrap the idea of making the campaign a referendum on President Obama’s policies. We had that referendum last November and Obama won in New Jersey by 18 points. Lonegan has said that Obama’s numbers are going to drop. They have dropped a bit, only 49% of New Jersey likely voters told the Monmouth University poll that they approved of the President, while 43% disapprove. If those numbers suddenly plunge, Lonegan will benefit without trying. If Obama’s approval stays stubbornly positive, as they have through various scandals, Lonegan stands to gain little ground.
50% of those who said they have a favorable opinion of Booker also said they could change their minds. Booker’s favorables are soft. Obama’s have proven to be stubborn.
Christie’s overall approval rating is 63%, according to Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. The governor’s ratings are slightly stronger among registered voters, 65% of whom approve of his job performance. 86% of Republicans, 64% of Independents and 52% of give Christie high marks.
On the stump, Christie has been promoting how he has reduced the size of government in New Jersey since taking office. “There’s over 5000 fewer employees in state government today than when I took office, and over 20,000 fewer government employees across the state,” Christie says in a campaign video, “We promised to make government smaller, we’ve made government smaller.” Despite these facts, 54% of public workers approve of Christie’s job performance compared to 37% who do not.
Since Superstorm Sandy, there has been virtually no “gender gap” in Christie’s approval ratings as measured by the Monmouth Poll. In a poll released on September 27, 2012, one month before Sandy, men approved of Christie’s performance by a 61%-31% margin. Women approved by only 6 points, 47%-41%. In Murray’s first post Sandy poll on Christie, in December, the gender gap closed. 68% of men and 66% of women approved in December. The trend continued in the February poll with 69% of men and 70% of women approving of the governor. In today’s poll, the gender gap exceeded the statistical margin of error for the first time since Sandy, with the surprising result that women approve of Christie more than men do. Women approve by a 65%-26% margin and men approve by 61%-27%.
If Murray polled a head to head match up between Christie and the presumptive Democratic nominee for governor, State Senator Barbara Buono, he did not report the results today. He did report that 59% of registered voters think that Christie deserves a second term.
New Jersey voters either strongly disapprove of New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez and think he’s dishonest, or they really don’t care much about the news of his ongoing scandals, depending on which poll you trust.
This morning the Quinnipiac Polling Institute released a poll that indicates that Menendez approval rating is down 15 points in one month. By a 44%-28% margin, New Jersey voters say he is not honest or trustworthy. Menendez’s approval numbers are upside down with 41% of voters disapproving of him and only 36% approving.
Just a week ago, Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press released a poll with the headline Sen Menendez Unaffected By Donor Scandal . The Monmouth/APP poll says that 68% of New Jersey voters had heard about “the donor scandal” but that only 24% thought the senator was involved in any wrongdoing. The poll said that 65% either hadn’t formed an opinion or hadn’t heard enough. The Monmouth/APP poll said that Menendez’s approval ratings werre similar to prior ratings over the last two years. Last week, 41% of the voters approved of the job Menendez is doing and only 28% disapproved.
Menendez has been in Afghanistan and out of the news for most of the week between poll releases.
This time around, Murray’s poll release is flawed. His numbers are fine. It’s his spin, which determines how most news outlets report the poll, that is the problem.
A Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press Poll released this morning echoed the recent Quinnipiac and Rutgers-Eagleton Polls. Over 70% of New Jersey voters approve of Governor Chris Christie’s performance and over 60% favor his reelection. Christie is trouncing presumptive Democratic gubernatorial nominee Senator Barbara Buono by more than 40 points.
78% of voters haven’t heard enough of Buono to form an opinion about her. Polling Director Patrick Murray said the race is likely to narrow to a 20% gap in favor of Christie and the Democratic challenger becomes better known.
“There is a long history that shows horse race polling has little predictive value this far out from an election. This is especially true when there is a popular incumbent and a largely unknown challenger. The important number here is that 6-in-10 voters support Gov. Christie’s re-election,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “This suggests that the race should close in on a 20 point margin as the campaign progresses and Buono becomes better known. The question remains whether the challenger can peel off Christie supporters to shrink that gap even more.”
Murray says that jobs, property taxes, schools, storm recovery and gun control are very important issues to the New Jersey electorate. Minimum wage is an important issue with most voters supporting an increase. However, Christie’s conditional veto of a minimum wage increase has not hurt his support with most voters.
According to Murray’s analysis, Buono has the potential to motivate 7% of the electorate to switch from voting for Christie to voting for her. If she gets all of them, Christie still wins with over 50% of the vote.
Monmouth polling staff attempted to identify voters who could potentially be motivated to switch support from the incumbent because of this issue. This group includes voters who: feel Gov. Christie deserves re-election, are dissatisfied with his veto, say they will vote to support a minimum wage ballot measure, and report that the issue is very important to their vote for governor. Analysis shows that this group comprises about 7% of the total electorate. Hypothetically, if Sen. Buono were able to convince all of these voters to abandon their support for Christie, his re-election support would remain above the 50% mark.
Monmouth GOP Headquarters. Who's missing? Click on photo for full view
Anna Little’s congressional campaign has failed to respond to the Federal Election Commission’s demands for accurate information about the campaign’s finances.
As reported by MMM on September 12, the FEC wrote Little’s husband and campaign treasurer, Rob Little, three separate letters in late August regarding serious deficiencies in the campaign’s April 2012 quarterly report, the 12 day pre-primary report, and the June 2012 quarterly report. The April and pre-parimary reports lacked donor information. The July report, which reported a negative cash balance of over $11,000, did not jibe with the previous two reports. The FEC demanded that all of the reports be ammended and that they be filed electronically. The deadline for the April amendment was September 28. The pre-primary report amendment was due on October 1 and the July amendment was due yesterday. None of the amendments are posted in the FEC website.
The FEC’s letters stated in bold print that requests for extensions would not be considered and that failure to comply could result in audits and enforcement action.
The FEC analysts who wrote to Little referred MMM to the press office. The press office spokewoman told MMM that reports that are filed electronically are posted to the commission’s website “almost immediately.” Reports that are submitted via paper are posted “within 48 hours.” The spokeswoman twice suggested that MMM contact the campaign. “It will be interesting to hear what they have to say,” she said.
Rob Little told MMM that he received the letters and referred them to the campaign’s compliance officer. Little declined to give the name of the compliance officer, stating, “you’re going to twist whatever I say.”
Speaking of twisted….
The Little campaign yesterday emailed a fundraising appeal declaring that her race against Congressman Frank Pallone is winnable based on Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press polling data.
The email, signed by “Anna,” cited Monmouth University Polling Director Patrick Murray’s statewide poll released last week that measured the favorability ratings to potential Democratic gubernatorial challengers to Governor Chris Christie in 2013. Pallone scored a statewide favorability rating of 16% statewide (17% among Republicans), 9% unfavorable and 75% had no opinion. Little compared that poll to a October 2010 Monmouth survey of the old 6th congressional district that indicated Pallone was beating Little in that race by 53% to 41%.
Little’s email told her prospective donors:
THE RACE IS WINABLE
These polling numbers mean that the number of Registered voters that view Pallone as ‘favorable’ have droped 31% since we last sqaured (sic)off against him in 2010.
These polling results mean that we have 34 days to engage with the 75% of voters who are undecided and help them form an opinion about the self proclaimed author of Obamacare before they head to the polls on Nov. 6th
These polling results mean that victory in the 6th district will be awarded to the campaign that reaches that 75% first!
As some national polls show President Obama widening his lead in his race for another term, much has been made about the sampling weights that pollsters use. Analysts on the left insists the polls are accurate. nalysts on the right say the polls are inaccurately favoring Obama by assuming his supporters will come out on election day in the same numbers as they did in 2008.
But its not just weighting that reveals a pollster’s bias. The way the question is asked also makes a difference.
In a Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press poll about the 2013 New Jersey gubernatorial race released this morning, pollster Patrick Murray asked if voters were “bothered” with how Governor Chris Christie interacts with his critics and detractors.
Thinking about Chris Christie’s style and not his policies, does the way he speaks to or about people who disagree with him bother you personally or not bother you? [If BOTHER: Is that a lot or just a little?]
63% of respondents said they weren’t bothered by Christie’s style. 23% said they were bothered a LOT and 11% said they were bothered a LITTLE. Given the way Murray asked the question, one could conclude that 74% of New Jersey voters are indifferent about Christie’s style.
In his narrative of the poll, which sets the tone for how much of the lazy lefty media covers it, Murray highlights his spin on Christie’s style.
“NEW JERSEY ON CHRISTIE’S STYLE: ‘MEH!’ ” is Murray’s headline. His opening sentence:
Governor Chris Christie’s job approval rating has ticked up a few points in the latest Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press Polland few New Jerseyans are particularly bothered by the way he deals with people who disagree with him.
Notice the use of the word few.
Christie’s numbers are the highest they ever been in a Monmouth poll. 55% of registered voters approve of the governor’s performance. 36% do not approve.
Yet Murray spins the results to read that a few people like him better and a few people are bothered about how he talks to people who don’t agree with him. The few who are bothered take top billing over the fact disclosed but not reported that Christie’s numbers are better than ever in Murray’s poll.
To their credit, PolitickerNJ cut through Murray’s spin and covers the poll results very well. They reported the real news of the poll results; New Jersey’s sagging economy is not hurting Christie’s popularity with voters and that of potential Democratic challengers in 2013, only Newark Mayor Cory Booker and former acting Governor Richard Codey have sufficient name recognition to be considered credible candidates for governor next year.
What if instead of asking if voters were bothered by Christie’s style, Murray asked if they liked his style? If Murray had done that, the headline would be:
