Kyrillos Has Menendez’s Attention

U.S. Senator Robert Menendez reacted to State Senator Joe Kyrillos’ formal campaign announcement with a statement of his own, issued to Politickernj.

“New Jersey’s voters will have a very clear choice if Senator Kyrillos becomes the Republican nominee- Senator Bob Menendez who fights every day for middle class New Jersey families or long-time Trenton insider Joe Kyrillos- who sides with corporations and special interests over working families and seniors and panders to the most extreme elements of the Washington Republicans,” Menendez campaign strategist Brad Lawrence said in an emailed statement today.

Clearly, Menendez has read the polls and knows his job is at risk.  Recent polls indicate that Kyrillos has low name recognition outside of Monmouth County.  For an incumbent Senator to react like he did guarantees that Kyrillos’ announcement will get press conference.  Menendez, knowing he is vulnerable, has decided to try to define Kyrillos at the risk of increasing his name ID.

Menendez’s recent reversal on Magistrate Patty’s Shwartz’s nomination to the Third Circut Court of Appeals and his back peddling on the Internet Censorship Bill he is a sponsor of, are other indications that he knows his support is soft at best with New Jersey voters.

Menendez’s use of senatorial courtesy to block Shwartz’s nomination to the Appeals Court was met with fierce opposition in the legal community and speculation in the media that he was acting punitively because Shwartz’s boyfriend was the prosecutor who investigated him during his first campaign for Senate.  The senator latter reversed himself, saying that after a second interview Shwartz was satisfactory after all.

After the enormous outcry this week against the Protect IP  Internet censorship bill sponsored by Menendez in the Senate, lead by Wikipedia, Google, Craigslist and other major web sites, he tweeted, ”

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Statement From Joe Kyrillos

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Kryillos Will Make Senate Bid Official Today

The dean of the Monmouth County legislative delegation is running for United States Senate.

MMM has confirmed that State Senator Joe Kyrillos has completed his exploratory activity and will announce his candidacy to replace Robert Menendez in the United States Senate today.

Kyrillos has represented northern Monmouth County in the state legislature for over two decades.  The close friend and advisor of Governor Chris Christie is also a former NJ GOP State Chairman.  He chaired Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign in New Jersey in 2008 and was Christie’s campaign chairman in 2009.

Kyrillos established an U.S. Senate Exploratory Comittee last June to evaluate the viability of a potential campaign to unseat Menendez in a presidential election year.  His announcement today is an indication not only that he and his senior supporters see a path to victory, but that the highest levels of the NJ GOP believe that New Jersey’s 14 electoral votes are in play during the presidential election.

New Jersey has not elected a Republican U.S. Senator in 40 years and has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush in 1988.

Republican pollster Adam Geller, who has consulted with the Kyrillos Exploratory Committee says Menedez is vulnerable.  Despite out polling Kyrillos, former Highlands Mayor Anna Little and a generic Republican, only 43% of New Jersey voters support the incumbent Senator.  “That is Jon Corzine territory,” Geller said in a memo to the Kyrillos committee last week.

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Adam Geller: Menendez is Corzine like vulnerable

Prominent Republican pollster and FoxNews analyst Adam Geller says that today’s FDU poll which has U.S. Senator Robert Menendez beating either Republican State Senator Joe Kyrillos or former Highlands Mayor Anna Little by a 43%-31%, is very bad news for Menendez.

In a memo to the Kyrillos for Senate Exploritory Committee obtained by MMM Geller said:

The takeaway from today’s FDU poll is Bob Menendez is very vulnerable and this is a real opportunity for a good candidate to defeat him. Any incumbent under 50% is in trouble and Menendez is under 45%, which means he is in major trouble.  That is Jon Corzine territory

Joe Kyrillos, even though not yet a candidate, would make a very strong opponent for Menendez because of his personal and fundraising base and his consistently strong fiscally conservative voting record in New Jersey.

I would also note that only 28% of voters think the country is headed in the right direction. That is a terrible number for an incumbent arguing that he ought to be re-elected. 

The bottom line of this poll is that if Joe Kyrillos were to jump into this race, Bob Menendez is in serious trouble.
 

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Republicans’ map favors minorities

John Farmer, the tie breaking member of the congressional redistricting commission, chose the Republicans’ map because, in his view, it created the possibility of two more minority districts than they Democratic map did, according to a report by Mark Magyar at NJSpotlight.

The new 9th district’s population is 53.1% minority.  Leaders of the minority community were pleased with the map, counting on it becoming a minority represented district once Bill Pascrell, who turns 75 this month, retires.  But Steve Rothman, 59, challenging Pascrell in the Democratic primary makes eventual minority representation less likely, which could lead to a minority challenger entering the 9th district Democratic primary.  That’s the point of Magyar’s piece.

The addition of all of Trenton and Plainfield in Rush Holt’s district, presumably makes the 12th the other potential minority district.

The NJGOP should identify and agressively recruit high quality minority candidates to run in these districts.   A Hispanic in 9 and an African American in 12.  Then the GOP should  raise the money to make those campaigns competive.

The GOP should recruit and fund an Asian American to challenge Frank Pallone in the 6th, while they are at it, unless Diane Gooch decides to run.

If running competively in the 9th, 12th and 6th is considered a pipedream, than it is also a pipedream that Joe Kyrillos can beat Robert Menendez for U.S. Senate or that the GOP presidential nominee can win New Jersey.

If the NJ GOP uses the same old playbook it will get the same old result.

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2012 Predictions

Serena DiMaso will be elected Monmouth County Freeholder at the Title 19 convention of the Monmouth GOP Committee on January 14.   Bob Walsh will withdraw during his speech before the convention.

Bill Spadea defeats Donna Simon and John Saccenti at a Title 19 convention of the 16th legislative district to fill the assembly seat vacated by the death of Peter Biondi.  After recounts and law suits, the November special election for the seat is declared a tie between Spadea and Democratic Princeton Committeewoman Sue Nemeth.  Another special election is scheduled for January of 2013.

Joe Oxley will be named Township Administrator and In House Attorney for Wall Township.  The appointment will forward a statewide trend of municipalities hiring either attorneys or engineers as their administrators as a cost saving measure.   Oxley is reelected GOP County Chairman by acclamation.  Senator Jennifer Beck will give the nominating speech.  Christine Hanlon will be Vice Chair.

Middletown will get a new Parks and Recreation Director.  It won’t be Linda Baum or Pam Brightbill.

Jim McGreevey is ordained an Episcopal priest.

Jon Corzine remembers where he put the $1.2 billion.

Senator Joe Kyrillos will be the GOP nominee for U.S. Senator, defeating Anna Little and Joseph Rudy Rullo in the primary. 

Congressman Steve Rothman defeats Congressman Bill Pascrell in the Democratic primary for the 9th Congressional District nomination.  In the only surprise of the primary, former Bergen County GOP Freeholder Anthony Cassano, who had agreed to take one for the team in the 9th, was defeated when the Bergen County Tea Party Group organized a write-in campaign for Anna Little.  Little was on the ballot as a U.S. Senate candidate.  Having lost the Senate nomination to Joe Kyrillos, Little accepts the nomination, asks Kyrillos to host a fundraiser for her, and promises to move into the district if she wins.   She doesn’t.

Maggie Moran defeats Vin Gopal and Frank “LaHornica” LaRocca in a close election for the Monmouth County Democratic Chairmanship.

James Hogan of Long Branch is the GOP nominee for Congress in New Jersey’s 6th Congressional District.  Frank Pallone is reelected by 8%.

Jordan Rickards of North Brunswick  is the GOP nominee for Congress in New Jersey’s 12th Congressional District.  Rush Holt is reelected by 15%.

On August 28, the second day of the Republican National Convention, the National Weather Service warns that Hurricane Chris is heading towards the Jersey Shore.  Acting Governor Kim Guadagno gets on TV and says, “Get the heck off of the beach please.”

Mitt Romney will be the GOP nominee for President of the United States.  New Jersey Governor Chris Christie will be the Vice Presidential nominee.

President Obama nominates Vice President Joe Biden to be Secretary of State.  Biden submits his resignation as VP effective upon both houses of congress confirming his successor.  President Obama nominates Hillary Clinton as Vice President.   Speaker of the House John Boehner refuses to schedule confirmation hearings for the VP nomination on the constitutional grounds that their is no vacancy in the office.   Obama makes them both recess appointments.  Clinton is nominated for VP at the Democratic National Convention and Secretary of State Biden spends October in China.

Despite losing their home states of Massachusetts and New Jersey, the Romney-Christie ticket wins the electoral college by one vote, 270-269.   The winning vote comes from Maine, one of two states that awards electoral votes by congressional district.  Romney-Christie lose Maine 3-1 but win the election.  Obama-Clinton file suit to challenge Maine’s method of awarding electoral votes.  Romney-Christie counter with a suit in Nebraska, which they won 4 electoral votes to 1, using the same arguments that Obama-Clinton use in Maine.  The U.S. Supreme Court decides both cases for the plaintiffs, 5-4, and determined that in all future presidential elections that electoral votes are awarded on a winner take all basis nationally.  Tea Party leader Dwight Kehoe calls for the impeachment of the Justices who voted affirmatively, claiming that they don’t understand the 10th Amendment.

Robert Menendez defeats Joe Kyrillos for U.S. Senate by 1%.

U. S. Senator Frank Lautenberg resigns.   In one of his last acts as Governor before ascending to the Vice Presidency, Chris Christie appoints Kyrillos to Lautenberg’s Senate seat.

What do you think will happen?

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MMM Year In Review – April

As is customary, April started with a joke.   This year the month of April ended with two jokes; the school board elections  and the President of the United States of America released his long form birth certificate.

After three years of study, Hopewell Township passed an ordinance regulating chicken sex.

A tongue in cheek post about who the Democrats could get to challenge Senator Joe Kyrillos when their endorsed candidate failed to submit his nominating petitions, generated more calls from Trenton than any other post of the year.

The worst joke of the month has consequences that will last at least a decade.  “Continuity of representation,” a political value in the mind of Rutgers professor Alan Rosenthal, trumped competitiveness and the state constitution in determining the lines of the new gerrymandered legislative map.

The stakes were so high that Governor Christie got personally involved in the negotiations regarding the map.  But Rosenthal’s was the only vote that counted.  The professor was not persuaded by the governor.

The map was so gerrymandered for the Democrats that Christie and the Republicans did not even try to win control of the legislature.  The governor, who came into office vowing to “turn Trenton upside down” transformed into the “compromiser in chief” in order to salvage what he could of his reform agenda.

While Rosenthal preserved the status quo for the Trenton trough swilling class, he unwittingly contributed to the creatation of a national Republican rock star, as Christie, freed up from having to work to win control of the legislature transferred his political attentions to the national stage.

The new map was no joke for many in Monmouth County. 

Senator Sean Kean of Wall was put into the same district as his friend, Senator Robert Singer of Lakewood.  After a few days of saber rattling about a primary for the seat, cooler heads prevailed as Kean agreed to go back to the Assembly to represent the safely Republican 30th district. 

Ocean County Republican Chairman George Gilmore told MMM that the Democrats put Singer and Kean in the same district in the hopes that the GOP would waste resources on a contentious primary in a safe district.  The real reason was that the Democrats were horrified at the prospect of Dan Jacobson returning to the legislature in the upper house.

Jacobson was preparing a fanatasy Republican primary challenge to Kean for Senate should Wall and Asbury Park remain in the same district.   The Democrats, who have never understood Monmouth County, didn’t realize the futility of such an endeavor.  But they knew Jacobson and they weren’t taking any chances.  So they put Senator Jennifer Beck in the same district as Jacobson, knowing that he would never challenge her in a primary.  Jacobson, through his newspaper, created Jennifer Beck.  Just ask him.

The new 11th district would be represented by Beck in the Senate and Mary Pat Angelini and Caroline Casagrande in the Assembly.  A district represented by three women.  A historic first. 

Assemblyman Dave Rible, formerly of the 11th,  was now in the 30th with Singer and Kean.

The new 12th district provided brief drama due to the fact that the lines created a senate vacancy.  Sam Thompson of Middlesex County and Ronald Dancer of Ocean County were the incumbent Assemblymen in the predominently Western Monmouth district.   The Monmouth GOP wanted to keep three senators.  Thompson wanted to move up. Freeholder Director Rob Clifton had long eyed Thompson’s seat in the assembly, but the senate vacancy presented an unexpected opportunity.  Always level headed and not one to needlessly rock the boat, Clifton let the Monmouth, Ocean, Middlesex and Burlington chairmen figure it out.  Thompson got the senate nod and Clifton joined the ticket with Dancer running for assembly.

The 13th district became even safer for Senator Joe Kyrillos.  Assemblyman Declan O’Scanlon of Little Silver joined Kyrillos and Assemblywoman Amy Handlon in representing the district.   Marlboro Mayor Jon Hornick, a Democrat, had his ambitions put on hold by the map makers who put Marlboro into the 13th.

The Democrats did the best they could, but only put up nominal opposition in the Monmouth legislative districts and on the county level.

Former Howell Chair Norine Kelly passed away in April.

Lt. Governor Kim Guadagno threw Carl Lewis off the 8th legislative district ballot for Senate.

A team of six Red Bank Regional High School students won the national Cyber Patriot III competition in applied defense technology.

The Monmouth County Freeholders established term limits for boards and commissions.

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Christie Administration Announces Contract Agreement With Third-Largest Public Employee Negotiations Unit

Financial Terms Recognize Fiscal Realities and Limitations as New Jersey Emerges from Recession

Trenton, NJ – The Christie Administration has reached a four-year contract agreement with a state employee collective negotiations unit representing more than 5,000 employees.  The financial terms of the agreement, which provide for no across the board salary increases in the first two years and small increases in the third and final years, are a practical recognition by both the negotiations unit and the Christie Administration of the strains on budget resources and state revenues and the continuing need to restrain costs as New Jersey emerges from recession.

The agreement, which requires ratification by the union memberships, was reached with the International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers (IFPTE), AFL-CIO Local 195, and the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), Local 518.  Both union locals are covered under one contract, and the new agreement will succeed the prior agreement which expired June 30, 2011.  The agreement was reached last week and is expected to be voted on by the locals’ respective memberships in the coming weeks.

The across the board salary increases in the agreement are as follows:  July 1, 2011 – 0 percent; July 1, 2012 – 0 percent; July 1, 2013 – 1 percent , and July 1, 2014 – 1.75 percent. 

“The financial terms of this agreement are, at best, similar to what most New Jerseyans in the private sector have experienced in recent years.  The same can be said for non-union state employees in the executive branch who have not seen a raise in over four years,” said Governor Christie.  “I thank both union locals for their recognition of the reality we all confront and for their honest and fair negotiations with my administration.  I can tell you that we have the same expectations for our other public employee contracts still being negotiated.”

IFPTE represents approximately 4,900 state employees throughout departments in the executive branch and at state colleges, with job titles falling into the categories of operations, maintenance and services; crafts (mechanics, engineers, plumbers, etc.); and inspection and security.  SEIU represents approximately 190 employees at the state Motor Vehicle Commission.  Together IFPTE/SEIU represents the third-largest state employee civilian negotiations unit.

The Christie Administration continues negotiations with 12 other public employee unions, the largest being the Communications Workers of America, representing approximately 35,000 state employees.

State Senator Joe Kyrillos (R- Monmouth/Middlesex) issued the following statement congratulating Governor Christie for coming to a contract agreement with state employees represented by the IFPTE and SEIU:

“The Governor promised that there would be someone fighting for the taxpayers at the negotiating table, and this contract makes good on that promise.”

“Through a commitment to collective bargaining, the contract agreed to by the Administration, SEIU, and IFPTE is fair to employees and taxpayers alike, and reflects the economic realities facing private sector workers across our state.”

“This approach to labor negotiations is a model that I hope future Administrations will follow, as it puts taxpayers’ interests first.”

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Judge Oxley?

The worst kept secret in Monmouth County politics became news today when Politickernj reported that “Monmouth County GOP Chairman Joe Oxley is poised to leave his chairmanship for a superior court judgeship.”

Politickernj’s story is premature.

“If it happens, it won’t be during this legislative session,” said State Senator Joe Kyrillos, “Joe is an excellent chairman.  Monmouth County is important to the party statewide going into 2012 and 2013.”

State Senator Jennifer Beck said she’d heard rumblings about an Oxley judicial nomination but assumed it was a rumor.  “Joe has never mentioned an interest in being a judge,” said Beck, “there are three Republican and one Democratic vacancy on the Monmouth Court now.  The workload is significant. About 60 lawyers have expressed interest in those positions, but the Chairman is not one of them.”

Rumors of Oxley moving to the Monmouth Vicinage were rampant in the legal community and among GOP politicos the week before Thanksgiving as several people who received calls from the State Police performing a background check on the former sheriff spread the word.

Oxley passed the background check, according to sources.  The bar association and the Monmouth Senate delegation still need to give their blessings before Governor Chris Christie will announce the nomination, which must be confirmed by the Senate.

“Nothing is official until the Governor makes his nomination,” Oxley told MMM in November, “as of now, I am completing my term and running for reelection as Chairman.”

Speculation for Oxley’s successor as chairman has centered around State GOP Committeewoman Christine Hanlon, State GOP Treasurer and former Senate President John Bennett, and former Assemblyman Steve Corodemus.

A source close to the former Assemblyman told MMM that Corodemus does not want the position.

Bennett and Hanlon could not be reached for comment.

Jim Giannell, the Kingmaker without a portfolio, told MMM that he won’t be a candidate for chairman should Oxley get benched.  Giannell ran for chairman against Adam Puharic in 2006.

Howell Chairman John Costigan, who challenged Oxley in 2010, also said that he would not be seeking the office.

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Could Congressional Redistricting Impact the U.S. Senate Race?

New Jersey’s congressional redistricting commission has a deadline of January 17 to determine the lines of the state’s 12 new districts.  One incumbent congressman will be out of a job as a result of the 2010 U.S. Census determination that New Jersey’s population did not grow enough over the last decade to retain its 13 members of congress.

The commission’s chairman, Rutgers Law School Dean and former New Jersey Attorney General John Farmer, has stated that he wants the commission’s work to be completed by Wednesday of this week.   The commission of 6 Democrats, 6 Republicans and Farmer is meeting today in New Brunswick.

While no one will say with certainty which incumbents will be pitted against each other, the most likely scenario according to several reports has the commission merging the 5th Congressional District, now represented by Republican Congressman Scott Garrett, and the 9th Congressional District, now represented by Democratic Congressman Steven Rothman.  Garrett lives in the Sussex County township of Wantage in the northwest corner of the state.  Rothman lives in the Bergen County borough of Fair Lawn.  Unless the commission creates a district that is more gerrymandered than the current 6th, it is hard to imagine a new district that combines the current 5th and 9th and that includes both Wantage and Fair Lawn, that is not predominantly currently represented by Garrett.

Despite that apparent advantage to Garrett, based on this scenario, conventional wisdom is that the advantage would be Rothman’s.

Here’s the question that no one is asking:  If Garrett is redistricted into a race against Rothman, would he forgo that battle in favor of seeking the GOP nomination to challenge Robert Menendez for New Jersey’s junior seat in the U.S. Senate?

If Garrett determines that his new district is unwinable or too close for comfort, why wouldn’t he take a shot at the Senate race?   As one of the most conservative members of congress and a Tea Party favorite, Garrett does not have close ties to New Jersey’s moderate GOP establishment.  That the party establishment has apparently lined up behind State Senator Joe Kyrillos for the U.S Senate nomination would not phase Garrett.

Garrett had $1.6 million in cash on hand in his congressional campaign kitty as of September 30.  As Chairman of the House Sub-committee on Capital Markets and Vice Chairman of the House Budget Committee, Garrett has a valuable fund raising Rolodex.  He would be a formidable primary opponent for Kyrillos.

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