Poll biases: It’s not just the sampling weights

As some national polls show President Obama widening his lead in his race for another term, much has been made about the sampling weights that pollsters use.  Analysts on the left insists the polls are accurate.  nalysts on the right say the polls are inaccurately favoring Obama by assuming his supporters will come out on election day in the same numbers as they did in 2008.

But its not just weighting that reveals a pollster’s bias.  The way the question is asked also makes a difference.

In a Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press  poll  about the 2013 New Jersey gubernatorial race released this morning, pollster Patrick Murray asked if voters were “bothered” with how Governor Chris Christie interacts with his critics and detractors.

Thinking about Chris Christie’s style and not his policies, does the way he speaks to or about people who disagree with him bother you personally or not bother you? [If BOTHER: Is that a lot or just a little?]

63% of respondents said they weren’t bothered by Christie’s style.  23% said they were bothered a LOT and 11% said they were bothered a LITTLE.  Given the way Murray asked the question, one could conclude that 74% of New Jersey voters are indifferent about Christie’s style.

In his narrative of the poll, which sets the tone for how much of the lazy lefty media covers it, Murray highlights his spin on Christie’s style.

“NEW JERSEY ON CHRISTIE’S STYLE: ‘MEH!’ ” is Murray’s headline.   His opening sentence:

Governor Chris Christie’s job approval rating has ticked up a few points in the latest Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press Poll and few New Jerseyans are particularly bothered by the way he deals with people who disagree with him.

Notice the use of the word few.

Christie’s numbers are the highest they ever been in a Monmouth poll. 55% of registered voters approve of the governor’s performance. 36% do not approve.

Yet Murray spins the results to read that a few people like him better and a few people are bothered about how he talks to people who don’t agree with him.  The few who are bothered take top billing over the fact disclosed but not reported that Christie’s numbers are better than ever in Murray’s poll.

What does that tell you?

The Asbury Park Press’s coverage of the poll leads with the “bothered” question.

The headline at NJ.com for an Associated Press story is Christie’s approval rating up slightly, poll says.

To their credit, PolitickerNJ cut through Murray’s spin and covers the poll results very well.   They reported the real news of the poll results;  New Jersey’s sagging economy is not hurting Christie’s popularity with voters and that of potential Democratic challengers in 2013, only Newark Mayor Cory Booker and former acting Governor Richard Codey have sufficient name recognition to be considered credible candidates for governor next year.

What if instead of asking if voters were bothered by Christie’s style, Murray asked if they liked his style?   If Murray had done that, the headline would be:

CHRISTIE’S APPROVAL AT ALL TIME HIGH

New Jersey voters like his style

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Monmouth Poll: In New Jersey, Obama leads Romney 50%-42%, Menendez leads Kyrillos 44%-35%

Likely New Jersey voters favor President Barack Obama over GOP nominee Mitt Romney by 8% and U.S. Senator Bob Menendez over State Senator Joe Kyrillos by 9%, according to a Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press poll released this morning.

Regarding the Senate race, Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray said, “There is certainly more room for a GOP upset in the Senate race than the presidential one here in New Jersey, but it’s a contest that few voters are taking an interest in.”

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Poll Dancing

Last month there was something of a controversy over the veracity of the Monmouth University vs the Quinnipiac University polls rating Governor Christie’s performance.  Within one week there was an 11 point swing in Christie’s approval ratings.  A Quinnipiac poll indicated a sky high 59%-36% approval rating for the Guv followed a week later by a down to earth 50%-38% rating produced by a Monmouth poll.  Monmouth University Polling Director Patrick Murray explained the difference by criticising the order in which Quinnipiac asked their questions while acknowledging that his poll is weighted to favor Democrats.

This morning’s Fairleigh Dickinson’s Public Mind Poll  asked the Christie approval question three ways and got three different answers in the same survey.

When asked “How would you rate the job that Chris Christie is doing as governor?” 49% said excellent or good. 49% said only fair or poor and 2% were unsure.

When asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable view of Christie, 51% said very favorable or somewhat favorable, 11% said unsure or mixed and 37% said very or somewhat unfavorable.

When given only two choices, approve or disapprove, 56% approve of Christie and 33% disapprove.  Only 11% were confused, mixed or unsure after taking that survey.

45% of the respondents identified themselves and Democratic or leaning that way, 23% were Independent, unsure or wouldn’t say, and 32% said they were Republican or lean that way.

34% of New Jersey voters are registered Democrats, 22% Republican and 45% are not affiliated with a major party.

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Monmouth Poll: Voters Like Christie, They Don’t Like Property Taxes

Patrick Murray has a new poll out this morning.

55% of New Jersey registered voters approve of Governor Chris Christie’s job performance. 37% disapprove.  Among men Christie has a 17% net positive rating.  Among women, net positive 6%

While still upside down, the state legislature’s ratings have improved.  39% disapprove of the legislature, the best rating they have had since 2007.  56% disapproved in April of 2010.  The legislature’s approval rating remained steady at 35%.  Murray didn’t say so, but it would stand to reason that voters feel better about the legislature due to Christie promoting how they have compromised with him.

Property taxes remain the most pressing concern of New Jersey residents.  Murray asked respondents to rank Trenton’s priorties on a 1-10 scale:

New Jersey‘s Pressing Issues

(rated on a 10 point scale)

Tier 1:

8.9 Reducing property taxes

Tier 2:

7.7 Reducing income taxes

7.6 Increasing minimum wage

7.4 Reforming teacher tenure

7.3 Raising millionaires tax

Tier 3:

7.0 Reforming drug sentencing laws

6.7 Restructuring higher education

Tier 4:

5.8 Expanding charter schools

5.1 Same sex marriage

While same sex marriage  is a low priority for New Jersey residents, 52% now favor allowing same sex couples to marry compared to 34% who oppose. For the first time since the question has been polled, residents who strongly favor same sex marriage exceed residents who strongly oppose by a 32% to 25% margin.

The poll, including data tables and Murray’s write up can be found here.

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A Case For Competitive Congressional Districts

By Art Gallagher

Giving credit where it is do, The Asbury Park Press Editorial Board got one right in their recent editorial lamenting the closure of Fort Monmouth’s commissary.  They give a quick summary of the disaster the closure of Fort Monmouth is and how the entire BRAC decision to close the fort was based on faulting economic and home security data.

Fort Monmouth’s closure and the move of its operations to Aberdeen Maryland was a huge waste of money that compromised national security.  An investigative series by Asbury Park Press reporters Bill Bowman and Keith Brown (which is no longer linkable) documented the waste and fraudulent numbers that BRAC gave Congress to justify the closure.

In their editorial, The Asbury Park Press accurately lays the blame:

The closing of the base was based on faulty economic and security research in the first place, and yet even with the facts on their side, Reps Frank Pallone and Rush Holt, along with Sens. Lautenberg and Menendez could not carry the day.

That is largely due to the fact that the faulty economic and security data was uncovered by Bowman and Brown after Congress had already voted to close the fort.  Pallone, Holt, Lautenberg and Menendez didn’t have the juice to uncover that data before or during the BRAC hearings when it might have made a difference.  Worse, the didn’t have the juice needed with their congressional colleagues to keep the fort in New Jersey.  Maryland’s delegation had the juice.

This latest insulting failure is just one in a decades, maybe centuries, long example of ineffective congressional representation from New Jersey.  Not just Pallone, Holt, Lautenberg and Menendez, but most of the delegation. Every two years during congressional elections challengers complain that New Jersey only gets a fraction of the money we send to Washington sent back, but it never changes.  Has there ever been a House Speaker from New Jersey?  Name on U.S. Senator from New Jersey who could be considered a historic figure.

As Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray indicated during his interview on the LaRossa and Gallagher Radio Show two weeks ago, New Jersey Congressmen have little incentive to represent the interests or philosophies of their constituents.  They vote how ever they want and work on, or don’t work on, whatever they want without regard for the good of their constituents because no matter what they do, their jobs are safe.  Historically, gerrymandering as assured that an incumbent member of congress will be reelected time after time except in the rarest or circumstances.

A competitive congressional district map could go a long way to improving the quality of representation New Jersey gets from the people we send to Washington.  Currently, Congressmen face no consequences for failures like the BRACing of Fort Monmouth.  Despite the rants of congressional challengers every two years about the about of money that New Jersey sends to Washington vs the amount of money that comes back, that situation never changes and our representitives have little incentive to work to change it.

If competitive congressional elections were the norm, rather than a rare exception, New Jersey would get better representation and better results.

New Jersey’s Redistricting Commission has a huge opportunity to create an environment that could lead to an major improvement in the quality of our representation in Washington over the next decade.  If past is prelude, the Democrats and Republicans on the commission will spend the process jockeying for influence with the “13th tie breaking” member.  The commission will predictably produce a winning map for one party which will be a losing map for the other party. 

For New Jersey to have a “winning map” would require at least one party to propose a competitive map based upon population and geography only without regard for the residency of incumbents or the historical voting trends of residents, and for the “13th member,” former Attorney General and Acting Governor for ninety minutes, John Farmer Jr, to do the right thing.

Otherwise, it won’t really matter much which party “wins” the redistricting battle.  New Jersey’s representation in Washington will not likely improve if the people will send there have little incentive to work for it.

By the way, Lautenberg and Pallone are scheduled to make a “surprise announcement” in Belmar tomorrow. 

Pray for rain. 

Maybe Lautenberg is announcing his retirement and endorsing Pallone to replace him.  Not likely, but one can hope.

More likely they will announce some legislation they are sponsoring that will probably never become law or some appropriation they are proposing or maybe even secured that will not have nearly postive impact on New Jersey that the negative impact that the closure of Fort Monmouth will have.

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Christie’s Polling Numbers Rise Significantly

Patrick Murray: Governor May Be Escaping Voters Dissatisfaction With Property Taxes, Managing Expectations

By Art Gallagher

Governor Christie on the Belmar boardwalk with vacationing teenagers from Pennsylvania. Photo credit: NJ.com

Governor Chris Christie’s polling numbers have improved significantly since May. 

A Monmouth University/NJ Press Media(Gannett) poll released this morning indicates that 50% of New Jersey registered voters approve of Christie’s performance while 41% disapprove.   A May18 poll by Monmouth University had the Governor with a 46% approval rating  and a 49% disapproval rating among registered voters.

This is a HUGE 12 point swing in only 3 months.  

Unfortunately, Monmouth Polling Director Patrick Murray’s narrative of the poll, and the subsequent mindless media coverage focused on the respondents dissatisfaction with property taxes and other issues, rather than their increasing satisfaction with Christie’s performance.

To his credit, Murray acknowledged as much in a candid phone interview with MMM. 

When asked why the Governor’s numbers improved so much Murray said, “I don’t know. I wasn’t expecting such a big swing, we should have asked different questions.”

You’ve got to appreciate Patrick’s candor.

Murray noted that the Governor’s ratings had a similar trend last year, declining during the budget debate and bouncing back after the budget was settled. “It could be that once the crying over the budget cuts is finished, people are more positive.”

Murray speculated that Christie may be able to rise above New Jersey residents dissatisfaction with property taxes and manage their expectations better than his predecessors. “He seems to be managing people’s expectations of how much can be done about property taxes.”

This poll should have been should have been broken up and reported as 1) Voters satisfaction with Chrisite and 2) Voters concerns over the issues that Christie is dealing with.   Voters concerns with property taxes, improving schools and the budget are ongoing issues that every governor deals with.  This poll tells us that voters are responding favorably to Christie, despite their frustration with the issues.  It doesn’t tell us why.

Elsewhere in the media you will read that voters are giving Christie only an average grade and that they are not happy with with how he is handling property taxes, education, etc.  

The media is missing the story.

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Does NJ Support Gay Marriage? It Depends

By Patrick Murray

A new PPP poll shows that a clear majority of New Jersey voters oppose gay marriage.

“Hang on a minute,” you say.  “All the media reports I saw on that poll say that New Jersey supports gay marriage.  Are you off your rocker, Murray?”

No, I’m not.  I just read the entire press release sent out by the pollster.  I found information in the very first paragraph that could lead a reasonable person – or at least an astute reporter – to conclude that this poll shows that most New Jerseyans do not support the recognition of gay marriage.

Here’s why.  The poll asked two questions.  The first question asked simply if “same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?”  And being a basically fair-minded lot, more New Jersey poll participants sided with making it legal by a not overly wide 47% to 42% margin.

However, the pollster followed that with a different question – one more reflective of the reality that exists in New Jersey right now.  If the choice was between gay marriage, civil unions and no recognition at all, the public evenly splits between gay marriage (41%) and civil unions (40%).

If you add the group who choose civil unions to the 17% of those polled who oppose any kind of legal standing for same sex couples, you arrive at a sizable 57% who oppose gay marriage when civil unions are an option, as they are in New Jersey.

To its credit, the polling firm, Public Policy Polling, not only asked both questions butreported the results for both in the first paragraph of their press release.  However, they presented this information under a headline claiming there is unequivocal public support for gay marriage in New Jersey.  And they semantically underplayed the apparent contradiction in the two questions’ results. 

 Hmmm, I wonder if this Democratic polling firm may have an agenda?  Fair enough.  They did clearly show all the results of their poll, after all. 

The real problem is that the media blithely went along with the storyline fed to them by the polling firm – even when contradictory evidence was put right in front of their eyes. See here, here (with a blatantly inaccurate headline claiming “even Republicans support same-sex marriage”), here (which bizarrely interprets 41% as a “majority” – no wonder we’re falling behind the rest of the world in math), and here.  [Note that the text of at least one of these online articles – although not the headline – has been modified after I contacted reporters about this.]

Usually when a poll has contradictory information or the pollster has an agenda, a critical observer really has to do some work to uncover the red flags.  That means reading deeply into the background information that a pollster is willing to provide, as one New Jersey columnist did recently (see the last two paragraphs).  Many times you don’t even get this information to review (in which case, don’t report the poll at all!)

For this poll on gay marriage, though, the conflicting information was presented with a flashing neon sign.  Yet, no reporter bothered to say, “How would I report these results if all I had was the question results without the pollster’s interpretation?”  If they had, I bet the headlines would have been less clear-cut about where the public stands on this issue.

And that would have reflected the reality that public opinion on gay marriage is not clear-cut.  As I wrote over a year ago, nearly a decade of polling on this subject in New Jersey and elsewhere shows that opinion on this issue is malleable.  The current poll underscores this fact.

When Democrats in the poll were asked the up or down marriage question, 64% supported it.  And when they were presented with the civil union option, a full 59% stood by their original position.  Republicans were similarly steadfast – only 23% supported same sex marriage in the limited option question and a similar 20% said the same when civil unions were added to the equation (although it’s worth noting that most Republicans do in fact support civil unions).

Independents, on the other hand, were swayed by the context of the question.  On the straight up or down marriage question they divided 46% for to 36% against.  But when civil unions were given as an option, support for same sex marriage declined by a sizable 13 points to just 33%.

Bottom line:  This poll provides clear evidence of the ‘softness” in public opinion on gay marriage in New Jersey.  About 4-in-10 are solidly for it and 4-in-10 are solidly against it, but the remainder are liable to change their opinion.  And with this changeable group rests the majority.  Therefore, as the public debate on this issue resumes, public opinion will continue to shift.

There.  that wasn’t so hard, was it?

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ICYMI: The LaRossa and Gallagher: Real Jersey Guys On The Radio

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Amy Handlin And Patrick Murray Will Be Guests Of LaRossa And Gallagher: Real Jersey Guys On The Radio

Assemblywoman Amy Handlin (R-13) will be the first guest tomorrow at 5PM on the LaRossa And Gallagher: Real Jersey Guys On The Radio Show on WIFIAM1460 on your radio dial and here on the Internet.

The show is sponsored by Repatriot Radio.

Handlin and her 13th district Assembly running mate Declan O’Scanlon are sponsors of the New Jersey “Right to Work Act” which prohibits payroll deductions for union dues and makes union membership voluntary.

In a May 31 OpEd piece, Handlin wrote, in part:

Imagine getting your dream job that pays well, offers generous benefits and is located a few miles from your home.

But there’s a condition: You must pay Harold Camping $75 every month to help spread the word about his next Doomsday prediction.

That’s probably not a problem for those who believed Judgment Day was May 21 and are now convinced it’s coming Oct. 21, but most would object to an employer telling us what we should believe and how we should spend our money.

In America, people are free to believe whatever they want and support their beliefs however they choose.

In New Jersey, and many other states, however, workers are forced to join unions and fund their political priorities, regardless of their wishes.

I support workers’ right to organize, but that should be a personal choice. Those who agree withtheir union representatives have every right to join, but others should have the freedom to work without subsidizing and endorsing a group they disagree with.

Just last week Handlin announced that she is drafting legislation to prohibit voluntary retirees who are collecting a pension from simultaneously collecting unemployment benefits.

Tune in for what promises to be an informative half hour. Those who have questioned Handlin’s conservative ethos should especially call in and learn something.  

Call in with questions and comments to 609-447-0237.

Patrick Murray, the founding director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute will be our guest for the second half hour of the show.  Murray’s media profile has risen in recent months as increasingly he has become a “go to” expert for both local and national new outlets for commentary on New Jersey government and politics.  We are pleased to have him on the show.

When Murray asked what I want to talk about I said, “whatever is current. We can talk about how the debt ceiling dealings in Washington will impact New Jersey politics, we can talk about Congressional Redistricting, and the upcoming legislative races.”  We’re not limited to those topics, and as always, your calls are welcome and encouraged.

Listen live between 5PM and 6PM here and call in to 609-447-0237.

If you miss the show, a recording will be posted here on MMM, hopefully by 9PM.

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Monmouth Poll: Christie’s Disapprove Numbers Up 9 points

By Art Gallagher

Monmouth University’s Patrick Murray has a new poll out this morning that indicates that while Governor Chris Christie’s approval numbers are steady at 47%, the percentage of New Jersey residents who disapprove of job the governor is doing has jumped from 40% in February to 49% today.

Murray noted that the poll was conducted before the latest state revenue projections were released.  MMM doubts the revenue numbers would have a postive impact on the governor’s numbers.  The positive news in the revenue reports of income taxes generated by Wall Street is offset by the lagging sales tax and corporate tax revenue results which point to a weak New Jersey economy.

Murray said that the increase in Christie’s disapproval numbers came from people who previously had no opinion of the governor’s performance.  In February 12% of the respondents did not express an opinion of Christie’s performance compared to 5% in the poll released today.

Christie support among Republicans slipped from 80% in February to 75% today. Among Independents Christie’s approval numbers rose from 49% to 53%.  72% of Democrats disapprove of Christie’s performance in today’s poll vs 61% in February.

Only 46% of New Jersey residents report having read or heard anything about the Christie’s Town Hall meetings.

Christie will hold a Town Hall meeting in Monroe Township this afternoon.

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