“Weight” before you take the latest Monmouth University poll too seriously

Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray released a poll yesterday that, he says, indicates New Jersey’s Congressional Republicans are “facing hurricane force winds” and that all five New Jersey Republicans in the House of Representatives have a good chance of losing this year.

“This is pretty astounding. Not only are New Jersey Democrats doing better on the generic House ballot statewide, but the shift is coming almost entirely from districts currently held by the GOP. If these results hold, we could be down to just one or two — or maybe even zero — Republican members in the state congressional delegation after November.”

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Monmouth Poll: Clinton Opens Double Digit Lead Over Trump

Hillary Clinton has opened a double digit lead over Donald Trump in a nationwide poll of likely voters released by Monmouth University today.  Prior to the conventions, Clinton held a slim two point lead.

Both candidates remain unpopular, but the Democrat has a growing advantage on being seen as more temperamentally suited for the presidency.  Still, Clinton’s email use remains a problem for her, while voters are divided on the impact of Trump’s attitude toward Russia.  The poll also found that voters are less optimistic and enthusiastic about the 2016 election than they were one year ago.

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Analysis: What sunk Ted Cruz?

Cruz Zigged While the GOP Electorate Zagged

By Patrick Murray

The Cruz campaign’s attempt to coalesce the #NeverTrump movement around their candidate #NeverHappened.  In hindsight, the attempt to position him as the establishment alternative may not have been the wisest move.

Ted Cruz entered the 2016 presidential race with a reputation as the Senate Republican conference’s enfant terrible.  He ended his campaign as the establishment’s last hope to deny Donald Trump the party’s nomination.  The problem is that GOP voters’ desire for a political outsider intensified just as he was making this pivot.

Exit polls conducted by the national media’s National Election Pool asked voters in 24 different contests this year whether the next president should have experience in politics or be from outside the political establishment.

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Monmouth Poll: PUBLIC BALKS AT TRUMP MUSLIM PROPOSAL

But most say the government not doing enough to protect US

West Long Branch, NJ – Donald Trump’s proposal to ban Muslims from entering the US receives little public support in to the latest national Monmouth University Poll.  In fact, more Americans believe that radicalized US citizens pose a greater threat than terrorists who infiltrate our borders.  At the same time, a majority support sending US ground troops to the Middle East to fight ISIS.

Few Americans (32%) believe the US government is doing enough to prevent a future terrorist attack on American soil, while 59% say it is not doing enough.  The public was more divided in January, when 44% said the government was doing enough and 49% said it was not.  However, they are not persuaded by a number of proposals put forth in recent weeks to stop such attacks.

Donald Trump’s proposal to ban all Muslims from entering the United States generates little support, even among his fellow Republicans.  Just 26% of Americans are in favor of this idea while 67% are opposed.  Majorities of Democrats (83%), independents (64%), and Republicans (52%) oppose such a ban.  In fact, only those voters who specifically support Trump for the GOP nomination favor such a ban (61% to 29% opposed).  Among other Republicans and Republican-leaning voters, nearly 2-in-3 (65%) oppose a ban on Muslims entering the country, with only 26% in favor.

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Monmouth Poll: Trump Widens National Lead

Donald Trump will probably have nice things to say about the Monmouth University Poll again. Trump derided Patrick Murray’s poll last week that showed his support in Iowa slipping to Senator Ted Cruz. Previously, Trump has praised Monmouth polls that show him during well.

In a poll released today, Murray is 95% certain that Trump’s national support for the 2016 GOP Presidential nomination among Republican voters is between 36% and 46%.

Trump’s next closest competitor is Texas Senator Ted Cruz, with 9-19% support. (95% certainty).  Trump’s current support is up from 28% in the October Monmouth Poll that he said nice things about.

Murray surveyed 1006 randomly selected American adults.  358 of them self-identified as Republican or Republican leaning voters.

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Monmouth Poll: Cruz surges to the lead in Iowa

Christie doubles his support from 1% to 2%

A Monmouth University Poll released this morning puts Texas Senator Ted Cruz in the lead of the 2016 Republican Iowa Caucus with the support of 24% of Iowa voters likely to attend the February 1st caucus.

Cruz’s support appears to have come at the expense of Dr. Ben Carson, who dropped from 32% in an October Monmouth poll to 13% today.  Cruz was at only 10% in November.

Donald Trump and Florida Senator Marco Rubio are within 2 points of each other for second in today’s poll.  Trump has 19% and Rubio 17%.

Evangelical voters, who make up about half of the Iowa GOP caucus electorate, back Cruz (30%) over Trump (18%), Rubio (16%), and Carson (15%).  In October, Carson held the advantage with this group – garnering 36% support to 18% for Trump, 12% for Cruz, and 9% for Rubio.

Cruz also has an edge among voters who call themselves tea party supporters.  He commands 36% support among this group, compared to 20% for Trump, 17% for Carson, and 11% for Rubio.  In October, this group gave their vote to Carson (30%) over Trump (22%), Cruz (17%), and Rubio (8%).

There is a notable gender difference among caucusgoers’ preferences.  Men prefer Cruz (29%) and Trump (24%) over Rubio (12%) and Carson (12%).  Women support Rubio (23%) and Cruz (19%) over Carson (15%) and Trump (14%).

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Monmouth Poll: Clinton’s National Lead Shrinks

Non-candidate Biden makes gains

West Long Branch, NJ – Hillary Clinton’s lead in the Democratic field has shrunk over the past month, mainly due to increased support for a candidate who isn’t even in the race.  The latest national Monmouth University Poll of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters shows Joe Biden’s support rising as speculation swirls around his potential entry into the race.  The poll also found that the prospect of a Biden-Elizabeth Warren ticket appeals to many Bernie Sanders voters.

Hillary Clinton currently has the support of 42% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters nationwide, which is down from 52% just one month ago.  Joe Biden (22%) and Bernie Sanders (20%) are practically tied for second.  This represents an increase of 10 points in Biden’s support since August and a 4 point rise for Sanders over the same span.

In addition to the 22% who currently back Biden for the nomination, another 7% of Democrats say they would be very likely to consider voting for him if he does get into the race and a further 34% would be somewhat likely.  The total of 63% who either back Biden now or would support him if he ran is up from 56% who said the same in July.  Majorities of current Clinton (56%) and Sanders (56%) voters say they would be at least somewhat likely to consider switching their support to Biden if he jumps into the race.

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Monmouth Poll: Trump Holds National Lead, Carson 2nd

Trump tops all but Carson head-to-head

West Long Branch, NJ – Donald Trump has increased his GOP vote share since last month’s debate.  The latest Monmouth University Poll of Republican voters nationwide also finds Ben Carson moving into second place, Jeb Bush slipping to third, and Scott Walker fading into the background.  The poll also tested Trump directly against nine opponents in head-to-head match-ups and found that only Carson is able to get the better of him.

When Republicans and Republican-leaning voters are asked who they would support for the GOP nomination for president, Donald Trump leads the pack at 30%, which is up 4 points from early August before the first debate.  Ben Carson (18%) has increased his vote share by 13 points and now holds second place.  Jeb Bush (8%) has dropped by 4 points and now stands in a tie for third with Ted Cruz (8%).  Following behind are Marco Rubio (5%), Carly Fiorina (4%), and Mike Huckabee (4%).

Scott Walker (3%), who held third place in Monmouth’s August poll, has dropped 8 points since then.  Chris Christie, John Kasich, and Rand Paul each get 2%.  The remaining six candidates included in the poll score no higher than 1% each.

“None of the establishment candidates is having any success in getting an anti-Trump vote to coalesce around them.  In fact, any attempt to take on Trump directly only seems to make him stronger,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

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Monmouth Poll: Trump’s national lead in GOP presidential race widens

Christie is tied for 7th place, will likely make the “Top Ten” debate

click table for larger view

Donald Trump has a 2-1 lead over his next closest competitor, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie seems assured of a spot in the “Top Ten” prime time debate sponsored by FoxNews and facebook on Thursday evening, according to a Monmouth University Poll released this morning.

Pollster Patrick Murray also found that 74% of Republican primary voters do not like the “Top Ten” debate format designed by FoxNews. 45% would prefer to see two back to back debates with the candidates selected randomly and 29% would prefer to see all candidates in one debate.  Only 23% approve of the FoxNews formula.

Trump leads the 17 candidate field with 26% of the voters surveyed favoring him to be the 2016 GOP nominee. Bush is at 12.2% followed by Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker at 11.1%.  Christie is tied for seventh place with Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and Florida Senator Marco Rubio at 4.4.%  Ohio Governor John Kasich comfortably holds to 10th spot in the Monmouth Poll with 3.2%.

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This week in 2016 Presidential Polls – July 31, 2015

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