Monmouth Poll: Cruz surges to the lead in Iowa

Christie doubles his support from 1% to 2%

Ted Cruz1A Monmouth University Poll released this morning puts Texas Senator Ted Cruz in the lead of the 2016 Republican Iowa Caucus with the support of 24% of Iowa voters likely to attend the February 1st caucus.

Cruz’s support appears to have come at the expense of Dr. Ben Carson, who dropped from 32% in an October Monmouth poll to 13% today.  Cruz was at only 10% in November.

Donald Trump and Florida Senator Marco Rubio are within 2 points of each other for second in today’s poll.  Trump has 19% and Rubio 17%.

Evangelical voters, who make up about half of the Iowa GOP caucus electorate, back Cruz (30%) over Trump (18%), Rubio (16%), and Carson (15%).  In October, Carson held the advantage with this group – garnering 36% support to 18% for Trump, 12% for Cruz, and 9% for Rubio.

Cruz also has an edge among voters who call themselves tea party supporters.  He commands 36% support among this group, compared to 20% for Trump, 17% for Carson, and 11% for Rubio.  In October, this group gave their vote to Carson (30%) over Trump (22%), Cruz (17%), and Rubio (8%).

There is a notable gender difference among caucusgoers’ preferences.  Men prefer Cruz (29%) and Trump (24%) over Rubio (12%) and Carson (12%).  Women support Rubio (23%) and Cruz (19%) over Carson (15%) and Trump (14%).

“This marks the first time Ted Cruz has held a lead in any of the crucial early states. As Ben Carson’s stock has fallen, Cruz has been able to corral most of those voters,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ. “Congressman King’s endorsement may not be the primary reason for this swing, but it certainly put a stamp on the Cruz surge in Iowa.”

King, who has been an ally of Governor Chris Christie since 2009, endorsed Cruz for President last month.  Christie’s support in Iowa moved from 1% in October to 2% today.

Posted: December 7th, 2015 | Author: | Filed under: 2016 Presidential Politics, Monmouth University Poll, Patrick Murray | Tags: , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

2 Comments on “Monmouth Poll: Cruz surges to the lead in Iowa”

  1. Republican in Name and Actions said at 12:30 pm on December 8th, 2015:

    Great. I love the guy and will vote for him if he wins the nomination.

    But can he win? I doubt that any Dems(moderates) will vote for him. He does not poll well with independents.

    Anyone that has any sense on how to win a Presidential election knows that you have to garner a good share of the independent votes and also get some of the Moderate Dem vote.

    These two groups are terrified of Cruz. I believe that he will not defeat Clinton.

    If you like polls here goes:
    Clinton defeats Trump 49-46
    Clinton defeats Cruz 50-47
    Clinton defeats Bush 49-47

    Rubio defeats Clinton 49-48
    Carson defeats Clinton 50-47

    Does the Party intend to nominate candidates that will lose to Clinton while they send down to nomination defeat those who have the greatest chance to beat her.

    You need to win elections to take back the Country.

    National elections are won by Candidates that can get crossover votes.

    Local elections can be won by Candidates that do not need crossover votes.

    We have to get in the door. A Conservative Republican legislature with a Presidential Candidate that can defeat Clinton is the way to go. Get your Conservative Congressman and Senators elected(that has happened) and please pick the presidential candidate that can WIN.


  2. Good points- said at 6:05 pm on December 8th, 2015:

    the guy is the smartest and best defender of the Constitution: which is rapidly being threatened every day by this rogue Administration. The establishment and RINOs have to remember we are 3 for 3 in losses,after having gone with the most lib of the field. ( Dole, McCain and Romney) Either we are confident in what we stand for, offering an alternative, and fight for what’s right, or we lose again. If we are within the margin of error right now running against somebody with 100% name I.D., there’s a good chance enough people will wake up and turn this ship of state around: there is so much to fix!