Christie doubles his support from 1% to 2%
A Monmouth University Poll released this morning puts Texas Senator Ted Cruz in the lead of the 2016 Republican Iowa Caucus with the support of 24% of Iowa voters likely to attend the February 1st caucus.
Cruz’s support appears to have come at the expense of Dr. Ben Carson, who dropped from 32% in an October Monmouth poll to 13% today. Cruz was at only 10% in November.
Donald Trump and Florida Senator Marco Rubio are within 2 points of each other for second in today’s poll. Trump has 19% and Rubio 17%.
Evangelical voters, who make up about half of the Iowa GOP caucus electorate, back Cruz (30%) over Trump (18%), Rubio (16%), and Carson (15%). In October, Carson held the advantage with this group – garnering 36% support to 18% for Trump, 12% for Cruz, and 9% for Rubio.
Cruz also has an edge among voters who call themselves tea party supporters. He commands 36% support among this group, compared to 20% for Trump, 17% for Carson, and 11% for Rubio. In October, this group gave their vote to Carson (30%) over Trump (22%), Cruz (17%), and Rubio (8%).
There is a notable gender difference among caucusgoers’ preferences. Men prefer Cruz (29%) and Trump (24%) over Rubio (12%) and Carson (12%). Women support Rubio (23%) and Cruz (19%) over Carson (15%) and Trump (14%).
“This marks the first time Ted Cruz has held a lead in any of the crucial early states. As Ben Carson’s stock has fallen, Cruz has been able to corral most of those voters,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ. “Congressman King’s endorsement may not be the primary reason for this swing, but it certainly put a stamp on the Cruz surge in Iowa.”
King, who has been an ally of Governor Chris Christie since 2009, endorsed Cruz for President last month. Christie’s support in Iowa moved from 1% in October to 2% today.