“Weight” before you take the latest Monmouth University poll too seriously

Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray released a poll yesterday that, he says, indicates New Jersey’s Congressional Republicans are “facing hurricane force winds” and that all five New Jersey Republicans in the House of Representatives have a good chance of losing this year.

“This is pretty astounding. Not only are New Jersey Democrats doing better on the generic House ballot statewide, but the shift is coming almost entirely from districts currently held by the GOP. If these results hold, we could be down to just one or two — or maybe even zero — Republican members in the state congressional delegation after November.”

Democrats are busy reprinting Murray’s narrative for their fund raising appeals and some Republicans are dropping their underwear off at Fluff and Fold.

NewJerseyGlobe is already speculating about who will run against the freshmen Representatives in 2020, if Murray is right.

Murray might end up being right.  New Jersey Republicans should be operating as if he is, but his numbers are wrong!

Here’s why:

Murray used the following weighted sample to determine that there has been an “astounding” shift in Republican congressional districts due to voters dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and the recent tax reform legislation:






21% Republican

22% Republican

41% Independent

39% Independent

38% Democrat

39% Democrat

He’s using his statewide weighted sample to draw conclusions about regional races.

A visit to the New Jersey division of elections’ website provided the following partisan demographics in the Republican congressional districts as of this month.

2nd District (Frank LoBiondo)

Republicans: 132, 294 (26.98%)
Democrat: 148,320 (30.24%)
Other: 209,757 (42.78%)
Total: 490,371
3rd District (Tom McArthur)
Republican: 143,770 (27.49%)
Democrat: 155,675 (29.76%)
Other: 223,569 (42.75%)
Total: 523,014
4th District (Chris Smith)
Republican: 149,978 (28.98%)
Democrat: 132,358 (25.57%)
Other: 235,210  (45.45%)
Total: 517,546
7th District (Leonard Lance)
Republican: 160,966 (30.38%)
Democrat: 149,782 (28.28%)
Other: 219,036 (41.34%)
Total: 529,784
11th District (Rodney Frelinghuysen)
Republican: 168,105 (30.87%)
Democrat: 158,223 (29.06%)
Other: 218,227 (40.07)
Total:  544,555

Murray has significantly under weighted Republicans. He shouldn’t be encouraging regional conclusions based on a statewide sample. 

Not only is Patrick’s narrative biased by TDS, his numbers are too.


Posted: April 17th, 2018 | Author: | Filed under: 2018 Elections, Monmouth University Poll, Patrick Murray | Tags: , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

3 Comments on ““Weight” before you take the latest Monmouth University poll too seriously”

  1. Davud said at 4:54 pm on April 17th, 2018:

    I really do not think tax reform will hurt Republicans in NJ. It does not adversely affect that many people in NJ and probably benefits many. Guadagno was an underfunded candidate tied to Christie and she won 9 counties. I see a good chance for Democratic pickups but I think Murphy is going to be a big issue.

  2. Mike Harmon said at 11:49 am on April 18th, 2018:

    Murray has become the national “face” of Monmouth University and that is a shame. He does not have an independent bone in his body. He is partisan and his polls show it. If the expected answer is bad for the Ds, he simply won’t ask the question. Right to the day before the election, his presidential forecasts were a study in herds and cliffs. He was calling for a Clinton landslide.

  3. Agree, Mike, said at 12:25 pm on April 18th, 2018:

    embarrassed at my Alma mater going the way of all libs: they all want to be sports magnates( whether they have the teams, or not, a la Rutgers’ foolish waste of money,) and they just keep on building, to be as big or bigger than the next school. In Monmouth’s case, enough is too much: soon there will only be glass and concrete and asphalt, rather than the beautiful Shadow Lawn they once were.. $$$ rules..soon the alums will have to do their wedding photos in the parking lot of the MAC/ gym, or whatever is sponsoring it, now.. sheesh!- The “sameness” in philosophy of lib education has expanded to the physical campuses, unfortunately..