Christie’s N.J. approval rating sinks to historic lows, poll finds

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Are New Jersey voters (that would be you) greedy jerks or just stupid and impressionable?

By Art Gallagher, [email protected]

New Jersey voters are either greedy jerks or stupid and impressionable buffoons if you buy The Star Ledger Editorial Board’s (Tom Moran’s) reading of the QuinnipiacPoll released on Thursday.  The poll reported that New Jerseyans favor wage freezes for state workers, by a 53-42 margin, and oppose an increase in the gasoline tax by a 65-33 percent margin.

Hundreds of middle-aged people looking for work at Brookdale Community College job fair. April 4, 2014

New Jersey voters are jerks. The new state motto: “Screw you, not me.”

That is how Moran starts off his rant. He finishes by cutting the poll respondents a break. Maybe we aren’t greedy jerks, maybe we’ve been led to think the way we do.

We’ll cut the folks responding to the Quinnipiac poll a break – they’ve been goaded in this direction. Despite widespread reforms to state workers’ pay and benefits during the past four years, not to mention budget cuts that led to historic layoffs of police, teachers and firefighters, Gov. Chris Christie used his annual budget address to continue to blame state worker compensation for our fiscal aches and pains.

Hmmm.  Moran’s frustration is showing.  As the editorial page editor of the state’s largest media outlet, Moran should be the most powerful opinion maker in New Jersey. How could his readers be so stupid?!

Insulting your customers (readers) is a interesting strategy to stop the bleeding of a company (media outlet) that is contracting rapidly and recently announced 167 layoffs which followed millions in concessions from the outlet’s unionized workers and a smaller round of layoffs.

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Quinnipiac Poll: New Jersey Voters Approve Of Christie More Than Obama, Menendez or Booker

New Jersey Voters Disapprove of the State Legislature, 36-48%

By Art Gallagher, [email protected]

Governor Chris Christie at Belmar Town Hall. photo by Art Gallagher

A Quinnipiac Poll released this morning indicates that, despite the beating he has been taking in the local and national media since January, Governor Chris Christie has higher approval ratings than President Barack Obama, Senator Bob Menendez and Senator Cory Booker, among New Jersey voters.

Quinnipiac didn’t spin the poll that way in their narrative, but that is what the numbers indicate.  Most of the media coverage about this poll will be negative for Christie. Too many reporters and editors read the spin and not the numbers.

There is bad news for Christie in this poll.  His approval rating has dropped to 49-44% since January when it was 55-38%.

82% of Republicans and 54% of Independents approve of Christie’s job performance. Only 23% of Democrats give the Guv love.

The Governor’s bully rating is higher than ever before. Voters are now evenly split 48-48 on whether he’s a leader or a bully. In January they said he was more of a leader by 54-40 margin.

56% of voters think the Mastro Report, the internal investigation commissioned by the Governor’s Office that exonerated Christie from any involvement in the Bridgegate scandal was a “whitewash.”  Voters are split 46-46 over whether the legislative investigation into Bridgegate lead by Assemblyman John Wisniewski and Senator Loretta Weinberg is a legitimate investigation or a political witch-hunt.

Voters have a net negative impression of the State Legislature that crosses all party lines. Republicans disapprove of legislature 40-45, Democrats 40-43 and Independents 33-53.  The Legislature’s overall approval numbers are negative 36-48.

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Christie comes closest to besting Clinton, Virginia poll finds

Christie comes closest to besting Clinton, Virginia poll finds (via NJ.com)

TRENTON — In the swing state of Virginia, Gov. Chris Christie is the Republican with the best chance of beating former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a presidential faceoff, a new poll shows, though her lead us shrinking. According to a Quinnipiac…

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Quinnipiac Poll: Bridgegate Takes Toll On Christie’s Presidential Poll Numbers

The Bridgegate controversy has had a significant negative effect on national voters opinions of Governor Chris Christie as a potential president, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

The governor’s net favorable ratings have taken a 26 point hit since the December 11, 2013 Q Poll. Today, American voters have a favorable opinion of Christie by 33%-30% with 34% reserving judgement.  In December, 47% had a favorable opinion of Christie, 23% unfavorable and 28% said they hadn’t heard enough.

With 65% support from Democratic voters, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has no significant competition for the 2016 Democratic nomination for president.

Clinton would beat Christie is the 2016 election were today, by a 46%-38% margin.  In the December poll, Christie edged Clinton by 1 point, 41%-40%.

Christie’s support has weakened with Republicans nationally as well.  In December he lead the crowded field and had a 4 point lead over his closest competitor, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul.  In today’s poll, Christie is in a statistical tie with Paul, Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan and former Florida governor Jeb Bush.

The survey of 1933 registered voters was taken from January 15-19.  Hoboken Mayor Dawn Zimmer’s allegations that the Christie Administration withheld Sandy Relief because he did not push through a development that Christie favored did not become public until the 18th and likely have little impact on today’s poll.

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Quinnipiac Poll: New Jersey Voters Don’t Believe Christie Ordered GWB Lane Closures

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FDU Poll: Christie Up By 19%, 40% Say They Are Republican

The biggest, perhaps only, surprise in the FDU Public Mind Poll of the New Jersey gubernatorial race released this morning is that 40% of the respondents identified themselves as Republicans. 47% said they are Democrats and only 13% said they are Independent or refused to identify their party.

The overall results in the FDU poll are in line with the other Independent/Academic polls of the race: Governor Christie is going to win.  The question is his margin.  Will it be 19% as FDU says this morning, 33% as Quinnipiac said on Tuesday or by 24% as the Monmouth University Poll measured two weeks ago.

In Quinnipiac’s October 29 poll, 30% of likely voters said they were Republican,  34% said they were Democrats and 31% said they were Independent.  Monmouth weighted it’s respondents, 38% Democratic, 28% Republican and 34% Independent.

If there is a surge in New Jersey voters considering themselves Republican, there could be unexpected coattails from Christie’s victory into the legislative races. If that happens, Trenton will have been turned upside down.

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Quinnipiac Poll: Women will put Booker of the top

Lonegan camp says its a 3 point race

GOP nominee for U.S. Senate Steve Lonegan is leading Democratic nominee Cory Booker among Independent voters, 50%-44%, and Republicans, 87%-10%, but women in all demographics are breaking strongly for Booker, 62%-31%, giving the Newark mayor an overall 12 point lead, 53%-41%, in the race to be New Jersey’s next U.S. Senator, according to a Quinnipiac poll of likely released this morning.

Booker’s lead is unchanged since a September 24 Quinnipiac poll that energized Lonegan supporters.  The 12 point lead in September revealed the race to be a lot closer the 30%+ margins most were expecting for Booker.

The poll of 899 likely voters was conducted between October 5 and 7.  If the Senatorial debate between the candidates moved the needle either way, it is not likely to be reflected in these numbers. The debate was held on the fourth, but not broadcast until the 6th.

There is some indication that Quinnipiac may be over weighting Democrats or under weighting Independents in their turnout assumptions. The poll indicates that NJ voters favor ObamaCare by a 51%-44% margin.  Yet Independents oppose ObamaCare by 56%-38%.  Democrats support ObamaCare, 92%-4%. Republicans oppose it 87%-8%. Lonegan has been campaigning against ObamaCare as strongly as he has been attacking Booker’s record in Newark.

In a general election, Independents are usually the largest percentage of voters.  With Independents breaking for Lonegan and against ObamaCare, it is surprising that Democratic voters are predicted to carry the day.  But nobody knows who will turnout for a Special Election on the third Wednesday in October.

Quinnipiac’s assumptions could be on the money.  Democratic turnout in the August 13 primary was higher than expected by most.

The Lonegan campaign continues to believe the race is within three points.  Strategist/pollster Rich Shaftan, who celebrated the Quinnipiac poll in September, posted the following critiques on facebook this morning:

Q-Poll is not a registered voter poll. It is a random digit dial survey where the results are weighted to the 2012 turnout model. They are weighting the numbers because they have too many Republicans completing the surveys and not enough Democrats. This the opposite of what happened in 2012, leading people to claim “the polls” were “skewed.” Pollsters should look at the raw data and not weight it for what they believe turnout will be.

Just spoke to Douglas Schwartz at the Quinnipiac Poll.  He admitted to me they upweight African-Americans, Hispanics and Asians to match the 18+ Census Data.  If he released the unweighted raw data it would show a 3 point race.  And that doesn’t account for their sample being drawn from random phone numbers, instead of registered voters or better yet, registered voters who have voted in two of four general elections.

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Quinnipiac Poll: “Unless the sky falls, Booker can start looking for a Washington apartment”

Former Monmouth County Democratic Chairman Vic Scudiery and Newark Mayor Cory Booker

Newark Mayor Cory Booker will be New Jersey’s next U.S. Senator if the results of the Quinnipiac poll of likely voters released this morning hold true through October 16.

Booker is leading Congressman Frank Pallone by 54%-17% in the August 13 Democratic primary with Congressman Rush Holt garnering support from 15% of the respondents and Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver with 5%.  65% of Democratic voters say their choice is firm.  8% are undecided.

In the Republican primary, former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan leads Dr. Alieta Eck 74%-10%.

In the October 16 special election, Booker is leading Lonegan 54%-29% among registered voters.

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Q Poll: Booker winning primary and election. Lonegan has large lead in GOP primary

The good news for Congressman Frank Pallone is that he is no longer running last in the independent polls for the Democratic nomination to replace the late Senator Frank Lautenberg in Washington.  The bad news; he’s losing to Newark Mayor Cory Booker by 42 points in the Quinnipiac Poll released this morning.

Quinnipiac surveyed 1068 registered New Jersey voters from July 2-7.   The did not survey likely voters.

Booker leads the Democratic field with 52%.  Pallone has 10%, Congressman Rush Holt 8%, and Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver has 3%.

In the Republican primary, former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan leads Dr. Alieta Eck 62%-5% is 28% undecided.

Dr. Eck is virtually unknown, with 91% saying they haven’t heard enough about her to form an opinion.

In the October 16 special election, Booker is leading Lonegan 53%-30%.

Pallone beat Lonegan 38%-34%. Holt beats Lonegan 37%-36%.  Lonegan beats Oliver 37%-35%.

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