The biggest, perhaps only, surprise in the FDU Public Mind Poll of the New Jersey gubernatorial race released this morning is that 40% of the respondents identified themselves as Republicans. 47% said they are Democrats and only 13% said they are Independent or refused to identify their party.
The overall results in the FDU poll are in line with the other Independent/Academic polls of the race: Governor Christie is going to win. The question is his margin. Will it be 19% as FDU says this morning, 33% as Quinnipiac said on Tuesday or by 24% as the Monmouth University Poll measured two weeks ago.
In Quinnipiac’s October 29 poll, 30% of likely voters said they were Republican, 34% said they were Democrats and 31% said they were Independent. Monmouth weighted it’s respondents, 38% Democratic, 28% Republican and 34% Independent.
If there is a surge in New Jersey voters considering themselves Republican, there could be unexpected coattails from Christie’s victory into the legislative races. If that happens, Trenton will have been turned upside down.