Low turnout is a major risk for LD 13 incumbents

LD 13:Aberdeen, Atlantic Highlands, Fair Haven, Hazlet, Highlands, Holmdel, Keansburg, Keyport, Little Silver, Marlboro, Middletown, Monmouth Beach, Oceanport, Rumson, Sea Bright, Union Beach

The idea that State Senator Joe Kyrillos and Assembly Members Amy Handlin and Declan O’Scanlon could be defeated by their Tea Party challengers, Leigh-Ann Bellew for Senate and Edna Walsh and Stephen Boracchia for Assembly, in the June 4 primary is unthinkable, even laughable, to many Monmouth County Republicans.

But recent history and a look at the numbers indicate that an upset with statewide consequences could very well be in the making if the challenge is not taken seriously.

With only nominal competition in the governor’s race, voter turnout in the Republican primary on June 4 is likely to be very low.   Therein lies the danger for the incumbents. Even “good Republicans” rarely vote in primaries.  Even fewer if there is no perceived competition.

There are 34,216 registered Republicans in the 13th district. In the 2011 primary, the last time the legislature was on the ballot, only 2,274 Republicans voted.   The challengers know that.

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Why is the Bayshore Tea Party Group Challenging Monmouth County Incumbents?

Bayshore Tea Party Group Co-Founders Bob Gordon and Barbara Gonzalez took to their Asbury Park Press blog yesterday to attempt to explain why they are challenging the 13th Legislative District and County Republican incumbents.  In this post I’ll attempt to explain their explanation with the benefit of having spoken to them and having attended the meeting where they introduced most of their candidates.  If I get any of it wrong, I suspect they will correct me in the comments.

Gordon and Gonzalez would probably object to the characterization that they are challenging the incumbents.  They would say they are supporting the challenge, not doing the challenging.  Just as senate candidate Leigh-Ann Bellew said she is not the BTPG’s candidate, but anticipates the group’s support.  This a linguistic distinction without a practical difference.  The challenge is a Tea Party challenge.

THE PROCESS

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Lautenberg ailing…..what if he retires early?

U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg missed work, on doctors orders, for the entire month of March.  On Friday he released a statement saying he will not return to Washington on Monday as the Senate convenes after a two week recess, according to reports in The Star Ledger and Politico.

“I regret that I will not be returning to Washington next week as I continue  treatment for, and recuperate from, muscle weakness and fatigue. My physician  continues to advise me to work from home and not travel at this time,”  Lautenberg said in a statement issued by his office.

Lautenberg added: “I am disappointed I will not be present for the opening of  the debate on gun legislation in the Senate. It is an issue I am deeply  passionate about, and my victories over the gun lobby are among my proudest  accomplishments. I am, however, gratified that my legislation to ban  high-capacity ammunition magazines will be one of the key amendments offered to  this bill.”

Lautenberg will also miss the confirmation of U.S. Magistrate Patty Shwartz to the Third Circuit Court of Appeals, a nomination that was initially blocked by New Jersey’s junior senator, Bob Menendez.

“I have worked hard since Judge Shwartz’s nomination by President Obama toward her confirmation, and I am confident that she will be confirmed by a strong majority of my colleagues,” Lautenberg said.

Lautenberg, 89, announced in February that he would not seek reelection in 2014.

Should the senate seat become vacant on or before August 27, New Jersey’s election law requires that a successor be elected in the November general election.   If a vacancy occurs after August 27,  the next election for the seat would be on schedule in November of 2014, unless the governor calls for a special election sooner.  Governor Christie could appoint a temporary senator or leave the seat vacant.

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Former NFL Player, Sex Offender Christian Peter Is A Supporting Member Of Christie Fundraiser Committee

ASBURY PARK, NJ – JANUARY 12: NFL player, Christian Peter and WCW World Heaveyweight wrestler, Diamond Dallas Page attends the 2012 Light of Day New Jersey Rock N’ Bowl A Thon at Asbury Lanes on January 12, 2012 in Asbury Park, New Jersey. (Photo by Bobby Bank/Getty Images)

Former NFL player, admitted alcoholic and convicted sex offender Christian Peter is a member of the host committee for a Governor Christie fundraiser/cocktail party scheduled for April 30th in Middletown.

Political fundraising host committees typically don’t meet.  Members names are included on invitations in order to encourage others to attend and contribute to the event and as an acknowledgement of the level of funds the member has agreed to contribute or raise.  The invitation to the April 30th event at the DiPiero residence on Navesink River Road can be viewed here.

The committee, chaired by Senator Joe and Susan Kyrillos, is a who’s who of investment banking, medicine, commerce, philanthropy, politics and government in Monmouth County and beyond. Peter’s name sticks out like item from a which item does not belong test.

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Bellew Comes Out Swinging

LD 13 GOP State Senate challenger Leigh-Ann Bellew wasted no time in kicking off her campaign to unseat incumbent  State Senator Joe Kyrillos.

“Negative” is not a strong enough word for the press release Bellew sent out this afternoon. “Scathing” is a more accurate description.

IN OFFICE SINCE THE 1980s, KYRILLOS TAKES HEAT FROM CONSERVATIVE PRIMARY CHALLENGE

Union Beach, NJ — State Senator and defeated 2012 U.S. Senate candidate Joe Kyrillos, a leading GOP “moderate” who has broken with most Republicans on taxes, abortion and gun control, is facing a conservative primary challenger backed by a full slate of candidates.

“Joe Kyrillos has been in office since the 1980s – that’s nearly 30 years – and his  ‘accomplishments’ have included tripling state spending, endorsing new and expanded gun control laws, and  supporting abortion,” said Leigh-Ann Bellew, a Union Beach educator and conservative activist challenging Kyrillos in the June 4 Republican Primary.

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Bellew says she’s not the Bayshore Tea Party Group’s candidate

Republican challenger for State Senate in the 13th Legislative District told MoreMonmouthMusings that she is not the Bayshore Tea Party Group’s candidate, as we have been reporting.

“While Bayshore will likely support me, I am not their candidate,” said Bellew, “I have a professional team running this campaign and much of my support will come from outside the tea party.”

Bellew is running against Senator Joe Kyrillos for the GOP nomination in the June 4th primary.

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Bennett: Tea Party Primary Challenge Is “Ludicrous”

Monmouth County Republican Chairman John Bennett said that “it is ludicrous to me that these individuals are being challenged” in the primary.  Bennett was speaking to MoreMonmoutMusings about the primary challenges to his 13th legislative team of Senator Joe Kyrillos, Assembly members Amy Handlin and Declan O’Scanlon, as well as Sheriff Shaun Golden and Freeholders Tom Arnone and Serena DiMaso.

John Bennett

“I have no idea what their agenda is,” Bennett said of the Bayshore Tea Party Group and their slate of candidates who filed to challenge the incumbents today,” our candidates are doing great jobs and are conservatives.”

“We will treat this challenge like any other election against our good, strong incumbents and return these good people to office with every resource at our disposal.”

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Bayshore Tea Party Candidates for Legislature in LD 13

Former Congressional candidate Leigh-Ann Bellew of Union Beach filed petitions to run for the Republican nomination for State Senate in the 13th legislative district this afternoon.  Her petitions included 154 signature.  Bellew is attempting to unseat incumbent State Senator Joe Kyrillos.

Edna Walsh of Middletown and Stephen Boracchia of Atlantic Highlands are challenging incumbent Assembly members Amy Handlin and Declan O’Scanlon for the Republican nominations to be decided in the June 4 primary election.

The 13th district challengers and the county candidates for Sheriff and Freeholder are running together under the slogan Republicans for Conservative Leadership.

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Democrats To Announce New Slate In 13th Legislative District

Hornik, D’Amico and Mallet will team up to target the “safe” Republican district

Hazlet-April 1  Monmouth County Democrats spent the holiday weekend scrambling to collect petition signatures for a new slate of candidates for State Senate and General Assembly in the 13th Legislative District, according to a Democrat who does not want to be known for speaking to a Republican blogger.   Marlboro Mayor Jon Hornik will be the Senate candidate. Former freeholders John D’Amico and Amy Mallet will be the Assembly candidates.

Petitions are due in Trenton today.

Barbara Buono, the presumed Democratic nominee for governor, Senate President Steve Sweeney and Assembly Speaker Shelia Oliver each called the new candidates to promise amble funds to wage the general election race, even if the incumbents prevail in the GOP primary.
Chairman Vin Gopal  believes the 13th district will be in play should the expected Bayshore Tea Party Group backed slate led by former congressional candidate Leigh-Ann Bellew for Senate win the Republican primary against incumbent Senator Joe Kyrillos and Assembly members Amy Handlin and Declan O’Scanlon.   The BTPG will announce the rest of their slate, as well as the freeholder and sheriff candidate, this afternoon after their petitions are filed.cheap jumpers for sale

“The Tea Party has beat the Monmouth Republican line every time they’ve tried,” said the source, “Anna Little beat the GOP organization twice and David Corsi did it in 2010.  We’re betting they will do it again.  In a race where the Republican candidates are running an anti-abortion, pro-gun campaign, we believe the district will vote for proven vote getters like Mayor Hornik, Judge D’Amico and Freeholder Mallet.”

The candidates nominated at the Monmouth Democratic Convention in February, Rutgers Professor Sean Dunne for Senate, and Assembly candidates Matthew Morehead, a dog groomer and Allison Friedman, a public defender, have agreed to resign their candidacies and not file their petitions.

“Having a strong legislative team will help Barbara Buono.  There is no way Governor Christie carries Monmouth County by the margins he did in 2009 if he has Tea Party running mates in the 13th.  We’ll be forcing Christie to spend time and money in Monmouth he would not have had to with Kyrillos, Handlin and O’Scanlon on his ticket.”

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Leigh-Ann Bellew is preparing to challenge Kyrillos

Former congressional candidate Leigh-Ann Bellew of Union Beach is circulating a petition to run for State Senate in the 13th Legislative District, according to multiple sources familiar with the petition.

Petitions with at least 100 signatures are due to be filed with the Secretary of State/Division of Elections in Trenton on Monday, April 1st.  13th district incumbent Senator Joe Kyrillos’ petition with 200 signatures has been filed.

Bellew, 43, was the Republican nominee for Congress against Frank Pallone in 2006, running on the theme Mom on a Mission. She managed Anna Little’s primary campaign against Diane Gooch in 2010.

Bellew is a pro-life conservative who describes her political philosophy as Constitutionalist.

Bellew told MoreMonmouthMusings that she has collected about 200 signatures but has not made a final decision to run.  She said she hopes to talk with Kryillos, who she said she likes personally.

“I am not happy with Joe’s apparent lack of conviction and leadership on important issues like life and the second amendment,” said Bellew ,”he says he’s pro-life personally and has a good voting record for life, but he blows with the win with his rhetoric. That’s not leadership.

‘Joe’s record on the second amendment is not good.  He favors restricting gun rights.  That is a big problem, especially given our current government in Washington.  We need leaders on all levels to protect our rights.”

Bellew said she would make her final decision about running over the weekend.

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