Governor Christie on Face the Nation

Warning:  Tax Cuts In New Jersey Might Cause Disorientation

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Who said this?

Which journalist/personality wrote this about Governor Chris Christie this week?

“..this governor is a force of nature who could probably make a dog sing if he put his mind to it.”

No googling before voting.

Answering correctly entitles you to read app.com for free for a week.

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Standard and Poor’s: Christie’s Budget Structually Unbalanced, Based On Optimistic Revenue Projections

Wall Street rating agency, Standard and Poor’s, released an analysis of Governor Christie’s Fiscal Year 2013 budget yesterday that concurred with the reaction that many on both sides of the aisle have had since Christie addressed the legislature on Monday;  Where are these revenue numbers coming from? 

NEW YORK (Standard & Poor’s) Feb. 24, 2012–New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie
released his proposed $32.15 billion budget for fiscal 2013 on Feb. 21. The
budget remains structurally unbalanced, is built on what Standard & Poor’s
Ratings Services regards as optimistic economic projections to close the
budget gap, and increases New Jersey’s (AA-/Stable) reliance on nonrecurring
revenues.

Christie’s budget projects revenue growth of 7.3% to $31.86 billion.  Based upon the state’s projections, revenue would have increased 9%, if not for Christie’s proposed income tax reduction.  While S&P concurs that revenue could increase significantly in a strong economy given New Jersey’s high income and progressive income tax structure, the agency doesn’t see a strong economy on the horizon in New Jersey until 2015.

“Due to New Jersey’s high incomes and the state’s progressive income tax
structure, we believe revenues could rebound significantly in a strong
economy,” said Mr. Sugden-Castillo. “However, in our view, the economic
assumptions that underpin the state’s revenue forecast appear to be optimistic based on current and projected economic conditions at the state and national levels,” he added. Through the first half of fiscal 2012, New Jersey revenues grew 3.2% from fiscal 2011, but are still falling 3.2% below budgeted amounts. According to IHS Global Insight Inc., the state will register 1.3% growth in 2012- 16th among all states. Unemployment in the state was 9% as of December 2011. IHS Global Insight projects employment will not return to pre-recession levels until 2015 and projects unemployment to remain above 8% through 2014.

Assemblyman Declan O’Scalon, the Republican Budget Officer in the lower house, said that S&P’s report is so flawed that it resembles a political hit piece more than an objective credit analysis.

“S&P, and other critics, are relying on the year to date short fall in our current revenues compared to budget in order to give their criticism of our new budget credibility,” said O’Scanlon,  “They are all ignoring the well known fact that the lion’s share of state revenue comes in during the first quarter of the calendar year.”

O’Scanlon said that New Jersey’s revenue receipts will be right on budget at the end of February and that S&P should have known that.

“I’m holding my breath waiting for S&P to revise their report,” said O’Scanlon, “For two years, the Christie administration’s revenue projections have been spot on. I’m confident they will be this year too.”

Regarding the reliance of non-recurring revenues O’Scanlon said, “13% of Jon Corzine’s last budget relied on so-called one shot gimmicks. The Christie administration reduced that to 4% in the current budget and it’s only 5% in the proposed budget.  There are always going to be non-recurring items.  We (the Republicans) have brought them down to prudent levels.  S&P should be praising that part of our budget, not criticising it.”

S&P also criticized the Christie administration for underfunding the state pension system:

Slightly more than half of the increase ($587 million) in
total spending is tied to pension funding cost increases. Total funding for
defined benefit pensions grows to $1.1 billion in fiscal 2013 from $484
million in fiscal 2012. Defined Benefit Pension funding accounts for 3.33%of
spending in the proposed budget. Despite this significant increase, New Jersey
is only funding 28.6%, or 2/7ths, of its statutorily determined actuarial
recommended contribution, which is different from ARC as defined by GASB.
According to the state, the ARC as calculated by GASB is normally higher than
the statutorily determined actuarial recommended contribution. The
underfunding of the ARC results in continued pressure on its pension system.

“To treat what the Christie administration has done with the pension system as news and a negative ignores recent history and raises suspicions of political motivation on the part of S&P,” O’Scanlon charged, “The Governor’s proposed budget makes the largest pension contribution in New Jersey history and is right on track with the pension reforms and benefit reforms passed last year.”

O’Scanlon defended the 3.7% increase in spending under the proposed budget. “What should be cut?  The increased spending on education and municipal aid holds down property taxes.  The other increases are for pensions and higher education, which has been neglected for decades.  Our educated and sophisticated workforce is our most important asset.”

John Sugden-Castillo, S&P’s primary credit analyst for the report, has not responded to an email asking for comment.

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Gingrich Hopes Gas Prices Will Fuel His Presidential Bid

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is hoping rising gasoline prices can reignite his stalled presidential campaign.

Poltico’s Ginger Gibson (a former Star Ledger statehouse scribe) reports that Gingrich will deliver a speech on energy policy this afternoon to the California GOP state convention.

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Ashley Dupre Opening A Lingerie Boutique In Red Bank

NY Post photo

New York Post love and sex columnist Ashley Dupre is opening a lingerie boutique in Red Bank. 

RedBankGreen broke the story.

Femmebyashley is opening on Broad Street in May.

Dupre gained notoriety as a result of her involvement in the scandal that forced former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer from office. 

Ashley was made infamous, not famous, by the Elliot Spitzer scandal.  It is nothing she hoped for and nothing she takes pride in.  She is, however, very proud of the person she has become since that scandal.  Closing the door on that chapter of her life with great integrity, Ashley has moved on to be a positive force for people of all ages by taking her experiences and using them to help others lead better, more productive, fulfilling, positive lives.

~ from Ashley Dupre’s myspace page

Based on a recent column, it would seem Dupre certainly believes in her product:

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Congressional Voting Ratings

Pallone and Payne, 17 others are tied for #1 most liberal members of congress

Republicans Smith and LoBiondo have higher liberal rankings than conservative rankings

National Journal has released its annual Congressional Voting Ratings and New Jersey has two congressman tied for the #1 most liberal member of congress based upon how they voted throughout 2011.

Frank Pallone, NJ-6, Long Branch, after being ranked the 70th most liberal member of congress in 2009, the 33rd most liberal in 2010, surged to the top of the list to earn a number 1 ranking in 2011.

Donald Payne of Newark, NJ-10, shares the #1 liberal ranking with Pallone and 17 other members throughout the country.  Payne’s liberal ranking was 46 in 2009 and 113 in 2010.

Rush Holt, NJ-12 joins Pallone and Payne among the top 50 liberals, coming in at #43, a drop from his 14th place showing in 2010.  Holt was #1 in 2009.

The most conservative member of New Jersey’s delegation?  That would be Scott Garrett, NJ-5, which is really no surprise.  What is surprising is that Garrett, who is often portrayed in the New Jersey media as a right wing fringe lunatic and the most conservative member of congress, is in the middle of the pack, ranked # 143 on the conservative scale.

NJ-3 freshman Jon Runyan’s #181 conservative ranking makes him the #2 conservative in the New Jersey delegation.

Leonard Lance, NJ-7 is ranked #191 on the conservative list.  Rodney Frelinghuysen, NJ-11 is #206.

Republicans Chris Smith, NJ-4, and Frank LoBiondo, NJ-2, have higher liberal rankings than conservative rankings.  Smith is #195 on the liberal list and #235 on the conservative list.  LoBiondo is #205 on the liberal list and #225 on the conservative list.

In the Senate, Frank Lautenberg is #14 on the liberal list.  Bob Menendez is #31 on the liberal list.

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Attention County Chairs and Boards of Elections: New Jersey Has A New Congressional Map

Public Service Announcement

With the nominating season coming up for New Jersey’s political parties, Boards of Elections and party leaders should be aware that New Jersey lost a seat in congress due to the 2010 census that indicated that our population growth was slower than other states.  As a result, a new map of congressional districts was approved last December.

One might think that Boards of Election and party leaders would be aware of this already.  Not necessarily.

Peter Carroll, a Republican County Committee member from Middlesex Boro in Middlesex County keeps on top of these things.  When meeting with his Municipal Chair, Mike Hompesch, to complete his registration form for the county nominating convention coming up on March 24, Carroll indicated on the form that he lives in the 12th congressional district.  “Are you sure?” Carroll reports that Hompesch asked, “all the information from the county says Middlesex Boro is in the 6th district.”

After some back and forth with the Middlesex County GOP, Carroll called the Middlesex County Board of Elections this morning.  “Middlesex Boro is in the 6th congressional district,” the nice lady on the phone told Carroll.  “But what about the new map?” Carroll asked.   After a brief hold, the nice lady came back on the phone and told Carroll that he was right and the Board of Elections had not updated their computers yet.

Carroll reports that he has heard from Middlesex GOP Vice Chair Sylvia Engel that the correction has been made for the March 24 GOP convention.

County Chairs of both parties, and Boards of Elections from all counties should take note.  The new congressional map can be found here.

This has been a public service announcement from MoreMonmouthMusings.

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Christie on Morning Joe

Governor Chris Christie tangled with Washington Post columnist Jonathan Capehart over gay marriage, and Christie’s offer to but the issue up for referendum, during the Morning Joe Show yesterday morning on MSNBC.

Classic Christie:

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Governor Christie Announces Highest Level of State K-12 District Aid in New Jersey History

Incorporates Common Sense Measures to Make Every Education Dollar Count

Trenton, NJ – Governor Chris Christie today released aid figures for New Jersey school districts based on the Fiscal Year 2013 Budget proposal which is the largest appropriation of state education dollars in New Jersey history. This includes $7.8 billion in K-12 formula aid, an increase of $135 million over last year and part of $213 million in additional state funding for education over Fiscal Year 2012. The Department of Education also made public the “Education Funding Report,” which outlines a series of common sense measures to make every dollar count and to help close the state’s persistent achievement gap – including turning around failing schools and ensuring that every child has an effective teacher in the classroom. 

“Since taking office, one of my greatest priorities has been working to ensure that every child in the state receives a high quality education that will prepare them for the demands of the 21st century,” said Governor Christie. “In addition to increasing overall spending on education to the highest levels in state history, we can and will go further to implement common sense ways that will make every education dollar count. If we truly want to ensure that all students, regardless of zip code, graduate from high school ready for college and career, the money needs to follow the child.”

The Governor’s budget not only increases education aid for the second year in a row, but also pairs common sense changes to the School Funding Reform Act (SFRA) with bold education reforms to make sure resources are used in a way that will close the achievement gap and better serve those children who need them most. These changes were based on the findings of the “Education Funding Report” prepared by Acting Education Commissioner Chris Cerf. The findings of the “Education Funding Report” can be found at http://www.nj.gov/education/stateaid/1213/report.pdf

Making several common sense modifications to the SFRA will finally make it possible to truly fund districts based on the number and needs of students, while at the same time laying out a schedule that adds additional funds in each future year and will fully fund the SFRA over the next five years. This will increase stability and predictability for districts and fund districts based both on the number of students served and the needs of those students.

Common Sense Measures to Make Every Dollar Count:

• Bringing New Jersey In Line With Other States and Funding Districts Based on How Many Students are Actually Attending School. Encourage school attendance by basing the enrollment count on actual attendance throughout the year rather than the current law which bases enrollment on a single day (October 15).Basing funding on average daily attendance will incentivize districts to focus on and improve attendance rates leading to more time in the classroom for children.Statewide, among large high schools, a mere one percentage point increase in attendance would result in nearly 4.2 million hours of additional instructional time per year.

Only 10 states in the nation, including New Jersey, use a single-day count to measure student enrollment. 40 others states use more accurate and meaningful measures of student enrollment, including average daily attendance measures or multiple days over the course of the school year.

• Making Adjustment AidTruly Adjustment Aid. Adjustment aid should actually be a tool to help districts that are below adequacy, instead of what it currently is – political currency that provides additional funds to districts regardless of their current enrollment and spending levels. This is a symbol of the old Trenton, when funding decisions were made as political giveaways regardless of the implications. The plan calls for a return to common sense – for districts that are spending above the level of their adequacy budgets, phase out, over five years, adjustment aid by 50% of the amount they are spending over their adequacy budgets.

• Rooting Out Fraud and Abuse. The Christie Administration will convene a task force to recommend a new measure for “at-risk” students in place of participation in the Free and Reduced Price Lunch Program, which has shown to be inaccurate and subject to fraud.There will be no change for this year.

• Returning to Originally Proposed School Funding Reform Levels. New Jersey is one of the most generous state funders of “at-risk” and Limited English Proficiency (LEP) students in the country.Under the proposal, even when returning to the originally proposed reform levels, New Jersey will still provide funding for these students at some of the highest levels in the country. These levels were recommended after a three year process including multiple panels of experts before they were artificially inflated.

New Jersey Funding as Compared to Other States

90% of Districts Receiving Additional Aid On A Per Pupil Basis

New Jersey currently ranks 3rd in the country in school expenditures per student, spending more than 60 percent above the national average. Nearly 60 percent of state aid goes to the 31 former Abbott districts, where spending has tripled since 1972. Former Abbott districts now spend $3,200 per pupil more than the state average (excluding the former Abbotts) and $3,100 per pupil more than the state’s wealthiest districts.

With a $135 million increase in K-12 formula aid, an increase of 1.8%, and the proposed modifications to the SFRA funding formula, 90% of districts will receive additional state aid on a per pupil basis this year. On average, state aid is increasing 2.1% or $121 per pupil across the state. Because these measures follow the principle that districts should be funded on the actual number of students they serve, 35 of the 97 districts that will receive less state aid will do so because of an enrollment decrease rather than a decrease in per-pupil aid. 

As the following demonstrates, Abbotts receive almost three times the state average in state aid per pupil. Overall, the former Abbott districts are receiving 0.55% less state aid than last year, yet still remain funded at a significantly higher level than non-Abbott districts and the statewide school district average. The overwhelming amount of total per pupil education spending in the former Abbott districts has, and will continue in Fiscal Year 2013, to come from direct state support. Even with formula revisions, state aid will comprise 3 of every 4 dollars spent on education per pupil in the former Abbott districts.

The past 40 years have demonstrated that just spending more money alone will not close the achievement gap, and that it matters not only “how much” money is spent but “how well” it is spent. Despite funding levels that consistently rate among the highest in the nation on a per pupil basis, New Jersey continues to have one of the largest achievement gaps in the country. Funding alone will not meet New Jersey’s obligation to give a great education to every child. Changing the way money is spent is by far the most important means of actually changing the behavior of schools and the school systems.

New Jersey has the second highest achievement gap in 8th grade reading according to the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) exam, and the sixth highest achievement gap in 8th grade math. Since 2005, the gaps for economically disadvantaged, African American, and Hispanic students have widened in Language arts literacy on the NJ ASK.

“We have closed the spending gap between Abbotts and non-Abbotts in New Jersey since 1972, but our disadvantaged children are still performing at significantly lower levels than their peers. Closing that gap was the explicit goal of the courts and legislature over the past 40 years, but money alone has not gotten us there. While money certainly matters, there is no evidence that money alone will close the achievement gap,” said Acting Commissioner Chris Cerf. “Over the last 40 years, we’ve talked a lot about equalizing funding, but we need to change the conversation to focus on whether students are learning the same everywhere, rather than simply whether we are spending the same everywhere.”

New Jersey’s current system funds all districts in the same way, regardless of their performance or the reforms they have in place to address persistent achievement problems. In addition to these significant and overdue changes to the funding formula, the “Education Funding Report” proposes a $50 million Innovation Fund to encourage and reward districts to both improve performance and to implement reforms targeted to specific achievement deficiencies. The fund would reward districts that show high growth and strong performance in student achievement, and fund reforms at the local level that are improving performance for students. The Department of Education would monitor the implementation and impact of these reforms, ultimately identifying and bringing the most successful to scale statewide. 

In order to have a meaningful and lasting influence on student learning, we need to set new policy priorities, change laws and regulations, alter classroom practices and district contracts, and start pushing a slate of bold reforms that finally move us away from the belief that the funding formula alone will close the achievement gap. Among many others, that includes: 

• Develop policies that enable districts to recruit, prepare, evaluate, compensate, develop, retain and recognize outstanding educators, and eliminate legal and contractual restrictions that impede schools from assuring a highly effective teacher in every classroom;
• Provide educators with the tools they need to be successful by setting high standards for what students should know and be able to do, developing model curriculum to support educators as they teach those standards, and providing real time feedback through formative assessments so teachers can modify their work and differentiate instruction in real time;
• Provide rich data reports to identify how well schools are meeting their mission of improving student outcomes, to identify specific areas for improvement, and to trigger differentiated interventions at the State level such as mandated curriculum and human capital practices; and
• Intervene in schools that do not create an environment conducive to high-quality teaching and learning by providing support through Regional Achievement Centers, requiring targeted turnaround strategies, and aggressively using existing authority to close or replace schools with new management and teachers if they do not improve within two academic cycles.

State aid figures for New Jersey’s school districts can be found at: http://www.state.nj.us/education/stateaid/1213/

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Christie and Imus this morning

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