Jersey Prefers Clinton, Bush or Walker over Christie for President in 2016

Christie’s poll numbers stink

New Jerseyans would rather see former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush or Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker elected president in 2016 than their own Governor Chris Christie, according to a Monmouth University Poll released this morning.

“The message from New Jersey voters seems to be as simple as ABC – anybody but Christie,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

In fairness to Christie, it should be noted that Murray did not poll the Governor’s presidential bona fides against former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Congressman Frank Pallone, Marlboro Mayor Jon Hornik, Freeholder John Curley, Monmouth Democratic Chairman Vin Gopal or Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake.

Christie isn’t even New Jersey Republicans first choice to the president.  By 44%-30% New Jersey Republicans prefer Walker to Christie in 2016.

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Christie has a credibility problem

Only 23 % of New Jersey residents think Governor Chris Christie has been completely honest regarding his involvement in and knowledge of the Bridgegate affair, according to a Monmouth University Poll released this morning.  69%, including 52% of New Jersey Republicans, think Christie is being less than completely honest.

“The governor has maintained that he was not involved in the lane closures nor did he know about them as they were happening. Most New Jerseyans don’t buy it,” said Patrick Murray, Executive Director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Half of New Jersey residents, 52% of registered voters, think Christie was personally involved in the George Washington Bridge Lane closures during his reelection campaign in September of 2013.  Only 34% think he was not personally involved.

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Unhappy Hurricane Sandy Survivors Confront Gov. Christie … in Iowa

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Chris Christie gets high marks for handling of Ebola: poll

file photo by Art Gallagher

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie enjoyed a successful election night on the national stage Tuesday, with several Republican governors cruising to election over President Obama’s allies. Now, Mr. Christie’s constituents are giving him higher marks than the federal government for his handling of the Ebola situation. A Monmouth University poll released Thursday says the majority of… Read the rest of this entry »

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Patrick Murray: Mark Magyar mischaracterized his analysis

Magyar admits mistake, promises to fix it but doesn’t

By Art Gallagher, [email protected]

Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray responded to my post this morning, Patrick Murray is emphatic that his next poll will be negative for Christie, about his quote in Mark Magyar’s anti-Chistie spin piece on NJSpotlight with an email asserting that his analysis was mischaracteriszed.

Patrick Murray

Murray provided an email exchange between himself and Magyar wherein Magyar admits his mistake and promises to fix it.

Murray said:

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Patrick Murray is emphatic that his next poll will be negative for Christie

By Art Gallagher, [email protected]

UPDATE 4:15PM:  Murray says Magyar/NJSpotlight mischaracterised his analysis.  Read the next chapter here.

Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray already knows that his next poll about Bridgegate and the Mastro Report, will have an negative outcome for Governor Chris Christie.

Murray is quoted by Mark Magyar in a NJSpotlight piece posted this morning saying emphatically that his next poll will have negative results.

“The Mastro report raised more questions than it answered about what is going on in the Christie administration,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, noted. “Now, the release of the memos has raised even more questions, including questions about the credibility of the Mastro report itself.”

Murray said he could not imagine what Christie and his top advisers were thinking when they settled on their current legal and political strategy. “Every time they put something out, they undercut their credibility,” he said. “Everything they do provides fodder that keeps this investigation alive and keeps this story alive. The report was overly protective of the governor, and now everyone is looking through the memos to see what the report left out. Nothing gets settled, everything looks worse.”

A Quinnipiac Poll released last week showed that 56 percent of New Jerseyans regarded the report as a “whitewash” and only 36 percent believed it to be a “legitimate investigation.” Even more ominously, 65 percent of voters knew of the Hoboken case, and 57 percent of that group believe Zimmer’s allegation that the Christie administration improperly withheld Sandy aid from her city because she refused to support the Rockefeller Group development.

Murray said he expected to see similar results in his next Monmouth Poll. “It will be negative. This is not going to be positive,” Murray stated emphatically, asserting that the controversy over the Mastro report clearly resonated with voters. “The question now with Christie is, ‘Have we hit a floor where a certain percentage of people will defend him no matter what, and everyone else will attack him?’”  (emphasis added)

 

Murray enjoys a well-earned reputation for producing polls that most accurately match the results of elections in New Jersey.  However, his declaration of a poll’s results before he’s asked a question raises serious questions about his credibility as a political scientist and the perceived “independence” of his analysis.

In fairness I should point out that it is possible that Murray already conducted his survey and hasn’t reported the results yet.

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GWB letter raises credibility questions for Chris Christie, Port Authority official, politicians say

GWB letter raises credibility questions for Chris Christie, Port Authority official, politicians say (via NJ.com)

TRENTON — If true, the claims in former Port Authority official David Wildstein’s letter are explosive and potentially deadly to Gov. Chris Christie’s political future, New Jersey politicians agreed today. But they also conceded the letter raised…

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Monmouth Poll: New Jersey residents expect Christie to run for POTUS

Christie beats Clinton or Cuomo in New Jersey

7 of 10 New Jersey residents expect that Governor Chris Christie will run for president and he would take the state’s 14 electoral college votes against former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton or New York Governor Andrew Cuomo if the presidential election were today, according to a Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press Poll released this morning.

A Republican has not won New Jersey in a presidential election since George H.W. Bush was elected in 1988.

Christie is favored by 46% of registered voters, including 19% of Democrats and 51% of Independents, against Clinton who is favored by43%.   3% prefer another candidate and 8% are undecided.  Against Cuomo, Christie’s margin widens to 19% of NJ registered voters, 52% -33%.

The Monmouth University Polling Institute surveyed 802 adult New Jersey residents from December 4 to  8.  Yesterday, Monmouth released a narrative of the same survey which indicated that 65% of New Jersey resident approved of the job that Christie is doing.

Posted: December 11th, 2013 | Author: Art Gallagher | Filed under: 2016 Presidential Politics, Andrew Cuomo, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Monmouth University Poll | Tags: Andrew Cuomo, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Monmouth University Poll, Patrick Murray | 1 Comment »

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Forget trying to beat Booker, the NJ GOP should plan for the next gubernatorial election

photo via facebook

U.S. Senator Cory Booker is going to be elected to his own full term next November.

None of the Republicans said to be considering a challenge to Booker can beat him.

It’s not that Booker is invincible, as was widely thought prior to the Special Senate Election last October.  He is beatable.  Steve Lonegan exposed the fallacies of the Booker myth and Patrick Murray documented that Booker’s support is shallow.   Had Washington Republicans not followed Senator Ted Cruz’s lead to shut down the government in October and had State Comptroller Matt Boxer released his audit of Newark’s City Government which exposed millions of wasted taxpayer money and management practices that encourage fraud in September instead of this week, Lonegan might have pulled off the upset that Booker deserved.

There’s nothing wrong with 4 of the 5 Republicans reported to be looking to challenge Booker.  Assembly Minority Leader Jon Bramnick, Senator Minority Leader Tom Kean JR, Senator Mike Doherty or Assemblyman Jay Webber would all serve New Jersey well in the U.S. Senate.

That Darryl Isherwood included Assemblyman Chris Brown is his list of 5 Republican of potential candidates to challenge Booker is more of a reflection of Isherwood’s sense of humor than it is of Brown’s viability as a candidate for any office in the future.  After blaming his Assembly running mate John Amodeo’s 39 vote loss on Governor Christie, Brown will be lottery winner lucky if he is even re-nominated for his Assembly seat in 2015.  “What will Brown do after politics?” MMM asked a senior Republican strategist after the gaffe.  “We’ll find out soon,” the strategist said with a laugh.

(Correction:  As a commenter pointed out, Isherwood was referring to a different Assemblyman Chris Brown (the LD 8 Brown) than the one who blamed Christie for his running mate’s loss.  My mistake makes my overall point.  MMM readers are more informed than the average voter.  How many knew there was even one Chris Brown in the Assembly prior to the LD 2 Brown’s gaffe?  There isn’t a member of the legislature with the statewide name ID to compete with Booker~ Art)

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Predictions

Governor Chris Christie will be reelected with 59.9875% of the vote.  In Monmouth County, Christie-Guadagno will win 68% of the vote.

Monmouth County Sheriff Shaun Golden will be elected with 69% of the vote.

Freeholders Tom Arnone and Serena DiMaso will win by 68% and 68.4%, respectively. DiMaso’s extra votes will be attributable to the negative ads the Monmouth County Dems have run against her, and prove that the Asbury Park Press’s endorsement is meaningless.

Brian Froelich will get more votes for Freeholder than Larry Luttrell gets, proving that the Asbury Park Press’s endorsement is meaningless and that negative advertising doesn’t beat a quality incumbent.

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