Patrick Murray, director Monmouth University Polling Institute told the Wall Street Journal that Anna Little’s election to Congress from New Jersey’s 6th district “could well happen” in a piece published online today.
In New Jersey, 11-term Democratic Rep. Frank Pallone has seen his lead over the Republican tea-party favorite Anna Little narrow rapidly as undecided independents have broken in Ms. Little’s favor.
“If Little wins, it will represent a complete annihilation of the Democrats in this race, and it could well happen,” says Patrick Murray, who directs the state’s Monmouth University Polling Institute. Across the state, he said, “independents are going for Republicans more than I’ve ever seen before.”
Murray produced two widely quoted polls on the NJ-6 race earlier this month. The first had Frank Pallone leading Little by 12%, the second by 7%.
As the campaign moves into its final days, the Little’s grassroots fueled campaign is has caught the media’s attention. WNBC and MSNBC covered the race this week. Peggy Noonan featured Little in her widely read WSJ column earlier this week. Noonan’s weekly WSJ column is usually reprinted in the NY Post on Sunday. News12 hosted a debate, a “conversation” they called it, between the candidates last evening which will be rebroadcast tonight and tomorrow night at 8.
Notable exceptions to the media coverage of the NJ-6 race are the New Jersey daily newspapers and their websites. CNN’s website is relying on this blog, Poltickernj and Blue Jersey for its local election news in both the 6th and the 12th districts due to the dearth of coverage from APP.com, MyCentralJersey.com and NJ.com.
With Anna Little leading Frank Pallone by 20+ points in Monmouth County and closing the gap in Middlesex County where the County ticket of Hackett and Kane for Sheriff and Clerk and Freeholder candidates Frank, Rickards and Rosenthal are running strong campaigns, the outcome of a nail biter could very well depend on the turnout in the Union County City of Plainfield where Democrats outnumber Republicans by a margin of 11,028 to 876, with 6,230 Independents.
Frank Pallone appears to be betting his career on a strong Plainfield turnout. He opened a satellite congressional office there, at taxpayers expense, two weeks ago, after ignoring the city for 22 years. Politickernj reports that Democratic Assemblyman Jerry Green and Union County Democratic Chairwoman Charlotte DeFilippo have targeted a turnout of 30% of Plainfield’s 18,134 registered voters.
Pray for rain in Plainfield. Turnout the vote in Monmouth.
(HIGHLANDS, October 27) – Republican Congressional challenger Anna Little today maintained her campaign’s focus on Frank Pallone’s recent silence on his role in the passage of the government takeover of health care, frequently referred to in New Jersey’s 6th Congressional District as “PalloneCare.”
“Back in the spring, when he thought it was going to be popular, my opponent infamously said of the government takeover of health care, ‘This is not Obama’s bill. This isn’t Nancy Pelosi’s bill. This is MY bill,'” said Little. “But now that the public has learned more about what’s in it, and it’s not nearly as popular as he thought it was going to be, he’s gone radio silent – why, his campaign web site’s ‘On the Issues’ section doesn’t even MENTION health care!”
“Sadly, this is not surprising,” said Little. “All we’ve heard from Frank Pallone is distortions of my views, rather than an explanation for the votes he cast for a failed trillion-dollar stimulus package, a failed cap and trade policy that would raise everyone’s electricity bills, and the government takeover of health care.
“Of course, it’s perfectly understandable – if I had cast a vote to cut Medicare by $500 billion, reduce patient choice, put government bureaucrats between doctors and their patients, and raise taxes, I probably wouldn’t want to draw attention to it, either.
“But that’s the big difference between Frank Pallone and me – I would never have cast that vote in the first place!
“In six days, New Jersey will vote, and we’ll have a chance to send a fresh face to Washington,” said Little.
“If you think we’re headed in the right direction, then Frank Pallone is your man,” said Little. “But if you think we’re moving in the wrong direction, if you think you’re ready for a change, then I need your vote – because you cannot change Washington without changing the people we send to Washington!”
A screen capture of Pallone’s campaign web site “On the Issues” section, taken early this morning, is attached.
In a poll released this morning by Patrick Murray, Executive Director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, GOP challenger Anna Little has closed the gap in her race to unseat 22 year incumbent Frank Pallone to 7% with a margin of error of +/- 3.9%. An October 6 poll by Murray had Pallone leading by 12%.
Like his October 6 poll, Murray’s sample assumes a heavy Democratic turnout in the 6th congressional district. The partisan break down of the respondents in the earlier poll was 53% registered Democrats, 23% Republicans and 24% Independent. The sample of today’s poll is 51% D, 24% R and 25% “other.”
The registration breakdown of the district is 37% D, 15% R and 48% I.
Murray says Little is leading Pallone in Monmouth County by a margin of 52% to 45%, up from losing 47%-49% on October 6th. Murray says the difference is partisan. However, in the Monmouth County portions of the district, Dems are 29% of registered voters, Rs 19% and Independents 51%.
Murray says Little is losing in the Middlesex, Somerset and Union portions of the district by 58% to 37%. The registration break down in those counties is 44% D, 11% R and 45% I.
Middlesex, Union and Somerset comprise 51% of the voters in the district, Monmouth 49%. In last year’s general election Governor Christie won the district by 8% with Monmouth County accounting for 52% of the turnout.
If Little turns out Monmouth County the way Christie did, and if 35% or more of Independents show up to vote, Little wins. Murray says Little leads Pallone among I’s by 58% to 37% compared to 51% to 38% three weeks ago.
A crowd of about 300 showed up at Temple Shalom in Aberdeen for the only scheduled debate between Congressman Frank Pallone and his GOP challenger, Highlands Mayor Anna Little. The crowd was heavily pro-Little.
Anna’s Army will caravan through the northern parts of the 6th district today with100’s of cars and trucks decorated with Anna Little for Congress paraphernalia will parade through the streets in Middlesex, Somerset and Union counties. The caravan meets at the Keyport IHOP at 11:30 this morning and will end at the American Legion in Piscataway, 840 Washington Ave, for a rally with Governor Chris Christie from 5:00 till 6:30.
If you can’t make the caravan, don’t miss the rally with the Governor. Christie has repeatedly said, “there’s nobody I want to see defeated more than Frank Pallone.”
At 7PM, Little and Pallone will face off in their only scheduled debate. This event, moderated by the League of Women Voters, will be held at Temple Shalom, 5 Arymont Lane, Aberdeen. The doors open at 6:30.
Murray said,”your assumptions are as good as mine, and this is a very volatile electorate.”
Based on his revised analysis, Murray says that Frank Pallone leads Anna Little in NJ-6 by 51%-42%, a 9 point margin. That’s 3 points closer than his original analysis and 24 points closer than the All Phor Pallone newspaper’s analysis of the poll.
Murray also said that the list his used from Aristotle Inc. has approximately half of all registered voters in CD-6 as “likely voters” based on a 2 or the last four election vote as the standard. That makes a lot more sense than to 60,053 two of four number that was reported to MMM from the GOP’s records of voting history.
