Patrick Murray, the Executive Director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, told MoreMonmouthMusings that he re-ran the numbers of his October 5 poll using the assumptions we used in analysing his numbers.
Murray said,”your assumptions are as good as mine, and this is a very volatile electorate.”
Based on his revised analysis, Murray says that Frank Pallone leads Anna Little in NJ-6 by 51%-42%, a 9 point margin. That’s 3 points closer than his original analysis and 24 points closer than the All Phor Pallone newspaper’s analysis of the poll.
Murray also said that the list his used from Aristotle Inc. has approximately half of all registered voters in CD-6 as “likely voters” based on a 2 or the last four election vote as the standard. That makes a lot more sense than to 60,053 two of four number that was reported to MMM from the GOP’s records of voting history.