In a poll released this morning by Patrick Murray, Executive Director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, GOP challenger Anna Little has closed the gap in her race to unseat 22 year incumbent Frank Pallone to 7% with a margin of error of +/- 3.9%. An October 6 poll by Murray had Pallone leading by 12%.
Like his October 6 poll, Murray’s sample assumes a heavy Democratic turnout in the 6th congressional district. The partisan break down of the respondents in the earlier poll was 53% registered Democrats, 23% Republicans and 24% Independent. The sample of today’s poll is 51% D, 24% R and 25% “other.”
The registration breakdown of the district is 37% D, 15% R and 48% I.
Murray says Little is leading Pallone in Monmouth County by a margin of 52% to 45%, up from losing 47%-49% on October 6th. Murray says the difference is partisan. However, in the Monmouth County portions of the district, Dems are 29% of registered voters, Rs 19% and Independents 51%.
Murray says Little is losing in the Middlesex, Somerset and Union portions of the district by 58% to 37%. The registration break down in those counties is 44% D, 11% R and 45% I.
Middlesex, Union and Somerset comprise 51% of the voters in the district, Monmouth 49%. In last year’s general election Governor Christie won the district by 8% with Monmouth County accounting for 52% of the turnout.
If Little turns out Monmouth County the way Christie did, and if 35% or more of Independents show up to vote, Little wins. Murray says Little leads Pallone among I’s by 58% to 37% compared to 51% to 38% three weeks ago.