Chris Christie gets high marks for handling of Ebola: poll

file photo by Art Gallagher

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie enjoyed a successful election night on the national stage Tuesday, with several Republican governors cruising to election over President Obama’s allies. Now, Mr. Christie’s constituents are giving him higher marks than the federal government for his handling of the Ebola situation. A Monmouth University poll released Thursday says the majority of… Read the rest of this entry »

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Patrick Murray is emphatic that his next poll will be negative for Christie

By Art Gallagher, [email protected]

UPDATE 4:15PM:  Murray says Magyar/NJSpotlight mischaracterised his analysis.  Read the next chapter here.

Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray already knows that his next poll about Bridgegate and the Mastro Report, will have an negative outcome for Governor Chris Christie.

Murray is quoted by Mark Magyar in a NJSpotlight piece posted this morning saying emphatically that his next poll will have negative results.

“The Mastro report raised more questions than it answered about what is going on in the Christie administration,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, noted. “Now, the release of the memos has raised even more questions, including questions about the credibility of the Mastro report itself.”

Murray said he could not imagine what Christie and his top advisers were thinking when they settled on their current legal and political strategy. “Every time they put something out, they undercut their credibility,” he said. “Everything they do provides fodder that keeps this investigation alive and keeps this story alive. The report was overly protective of the governor, and now everyone is looking through the memos to see what the report left out. Nothing gets settled, everything looks worse.”

A Quinnipiac Poll released last week showed that 56 percent of New Jerseyans regarded the report as a “whitewash” and only 36 percent believed it to be a “legitimate investigation.” Even more ominously, 65 percent of voters knew of the Hoboken case, and 57 percent of that group believe Zimmer’s allegation that the Christie administration improperly withheld Sandy aid from her city because she refused to support the Rockefeller Group development.

Murray said he expected to see similar results in his next Monmouth Poll. “It will be negative. This is not going to be positive,” Murray stated emphatically, asserting that the controversy over the Mastro report clearly resonated with voters. “The question now with Christie is, ‘Have we hit a floor where a certain percentage of people will defend him no matter what, and everyone else will attack him?’”  (emphasis added)

 

Murray enjoys a well-earned reputation for producing polls that most accurately match the results of elections in New Jersey.  However, his declaration of a poll’s results before he’s asked a question raises serious questions about his credibility as a political scientist and the perceived “independence” of his analysis.

In fairness I should point out that it is possible that Murray already conducted his survey and hasn’t reported the results yet.

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FDU Poll: Christie Up By 19%, 40% Say They Are Republican

The biggest, perhaps only, surprise in the FDU Public Mind Poll of the New Jersey gubernatorial race released this morning is that 40% of the respondents identified themselves as Republicans. 47% said they are Democrats and only 13% said they are Independent or refused to identify their party.

The overall results in the FDU poll are in line with the other Independent/Academic polls of the race: Governor Christie is going to win.  The question is his margin.  Will it be 19% as FDU says this morning, 33% as Quinnipiac said on Tuesday or by 24% as the Monmouth University Poll measured two weeks ago.

In Quinnipiac’s October 29 poll, 30% of likely voters said they were Republican,  34% said they were Democrats and 31% said they were Independent.  Monmouth weighted it’s respondents, 38% Democratic, 28% Republican and 34% Independent.

If there is a surge in New Jersey voters considering themselves Republican, there could be unexpected coattails from Christie’s victory into the legislative races. If that happens, Trenton will have been turned upside down.

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Monmouth Poll: Booker’s Lead Shrinks To 10%

It’s two days before New Jersey elects a U.S. Senator to replace the late Frank Lautenberg in Washington and Newark Mayor Cory Booker’s lead over former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan has shrunk to 10%, according to a poll released by Monmouth University this morning.  Democrat Booker led Republican Lonegan by 13% two weeks ago and by 26% in August.

Polling Director Patrick Murray surveyed 1,393 likely voters who have voted in at least two of the last four general elections between Thursday and Saturday of last week.   The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.6%.

The poll results are weighted with the assumptions that Democrats will be 38% of the turnout, Independents 34% and Republicans 28%. Monmouth expects that women will be 52% of the turnout.  The expected racial demographic of voters is 75% White, 12% Black, 8% Hispanic and 5% Asian/Other.

Democrats favor Booker by a margin of 90%-6%.  Independents favor Lonegan, 48%-43% with 6% undecided.  Republicans favor Lonegan 86%-11%.

55% of respondents said that Booker’s views on issues are generally in line with most of New Jerseyans.  30% said Booker is out of step with most voters and 15% are not sure. 48% said Booker is more interested in being on the national stage than he is in serving the people of New Jersey.  This perception accounts for Booker’s weakened support, according to Murray.

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Monmouth Poll: Christie will be re-elected The only question is by how much

“Christie’s level of firm support means the eventual winner is not in question. The only unknown is the final margin of victory,” ~ Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Governor Christie meeting with business owners at McLoone’s Pier House in Long Branch, April 18, 2013. Photo by Art Gallagher

New Jersey’s gubernatorial election is more than a month away and Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray has called the race for Governor Chris Christie.

In a survey conducted last week and released this morning, Christie leads challenger State Senator Barbara Buono 56%-37%, a nearly identical margin to the August Monmouth poll of 56%-36%.

80% of likely voters say they won’t change their mind on who to vote for on November 5.  60% of Independents, 89% of Republicans and 25% of Democrats say they will vote to give the Republican governor another four years.  There is no gender gap. 56% of men and 55% of women say they will vote for Christie.

Buono’s name recognition has improved significantly since the August poll, but as voters get to know her, they are not impressed. 67% have an opinion of Buono, up from 52% in August, but more than half of those opinions are negative. 38% still don’t know enough about Buono to form an opinion.

Posted: October 2nd, 2013 | Author: Art Gallagher | Filed under: 2013 Election, 2013 Gubernatorial Politics, Barbara Buono, Chris Christie, Monmouth University Poll, Patrick Murray | Tags: Barbara Buono, Chris Christie, Monmouth Poll, Patrick Murray | Comments Off on Monmouth Poll: Christie will be re-elected The only question is by how much

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Monmouth Poll: Booker holding a 13 point lead

Lonegan team says it’s a single digit race

With two weeks left in the special election campaign for U.S. Senate, Newark Mayor Cory Booker’s lead over former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan in down to 13 points, from 16 points in August, according to a Monmouth University poll of likely voters released this morning.

Despite holding his lead within the margins of error in the Monmouth polls, Booker’s favorability rating has taken a 20 point hit since August.  The percentage of those who view Booker favorably dropped 7% while those who view him unfavorably increased by 13%.

Lonegan’s overall favorability rating declined 4%.  35% said they view Lonegan favorably, up from 31% in August.  28% said they viewed Lonegan unfavorably, up 8% since August.

Lonegan’s name recognition has jumped 11% since August when 49% said they had no opinion of him.  38% said they have no opinion of him in today’s survey.

Booker has widened his lead with Independent voters from 2% in August to 6% today.  Monmouth Polling Director Patrick Murray said this figure is statistically insignificant.

Lonegan has shored up his support among Republicans a bit.  83% of Republican likely voters say they will vote for Lonegan, up from 79% in August.  14% of Republicans said they would vote for Booker, down from 16% in August.

Lonegan’s strategist and pollster Rick Shaftan says his man is down by only 6%, 48-42.   Shaftan thinks Booker’s shallow support in his base will translate into a lower turnout among Democratic voters than Republcans and conservatives. “Maybe I’m undercounting African-Americans who I have at 8% of the turnout,”Shaftan said,  “I know others expect more.  I do not.”  Shaftan said that the African-American vote was 12% of the turnout in last year’s election in New Jersey.

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Christie approval rating remains high, poll says

Christie approval rating remains high, poll says (via NJ.com)

Ed Murray/The Star-Ledger TRENTON — With election day only seven weeks away, Gov. Chris Christie is still enjoying solid approval ratings among New Jerseyans, a new poll indicates. Sixty-one percent of people polled approve of the job Christie is…

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Monmouth Poll: 73% are satisfied with Sandy recovery efforts

facebook photo by Amanda Haddox

A Monmouth University Poll released this morning indicates that 73% of New Jersey residents are satisfied,  (31% very satisfied and 42% somewhat satisfied) with the state’s effort to recover from Superstorm Sandy.

78% say they have fully recovered or were not impacted by Sandy.  67% of those from the areas hardest hit by the storm say they have fully recovered.  15% of those in the hardest hit areas say they have barely recovered or have not recovered at all.

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Christie Reverses the Gender Gap

Women Approve of Christie More Than Men Do

Public Workers Give Governor High Marks

Guv Christie accepting Sea Bright Mayor Dina Long’s endorsement. Photo by Serena DiMaso. Taken with Tom Arone’s phone

Governor Chris Christie still looks to be cruising to reelection, according to a Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press poll released this morning.

Christie’s overall approval rating is 63%, according to Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.  The governor’s ratings are slightly stronger among registered voters, 65% of whom approve of his job performance. 86% of Republicans, 64% of Independents and 52% of give Christie high marks.

On the stump, Christie has been promoting how he has reduced the size of government in New Jersey since taking office. “There’s over 5000 fewer employees in state government today than when I took office, and over 20,000 fewer government employees across the state,” Christie says in a campaign video, “We promised to make government smaller, we’ve made government smaller.”  Despite these facts, 54% of public workers approve of Christie’s job performance compared to 37% who do not.

Since Superstorm Sandy, there has been virtually no “gender gap” in Christie’s approval ratings as measured by the Monmouth Poll.  In a poll released on September 27, 2012, one month before Sandy, men approved of Christie’s performance by a 61%-31% margin. Women approved by only 6 points, 47%-41%.  In Murray’s first post Sandy poll on Christie, in December, the gender gap closed. 68% of men and 66% of women approved in December.  The trend continued in the February poll with 69% of men and 70% of women approving of the governor.  In today’s poll, the gender gap exceeded the statistical margin of error for the first time since Sandy, with the surprising result that women approve of Christie more than men do. Women approve by a 65%-26% margin and men approve by 61%-27%.

If Murray polled a head to head match up between Christie and the presumptive Democratic nominee for governor, State Senator Barbara Buono, he did not report the results today. He did report that 59% of registered voters think that Christie deserves a second term.

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Why Christie’s Poll Numbers Are Surging

Two credible, independent polls released this week indicate that New Jersey voters strongly approve of Governor Chris Christie.  The Monmouth University Poll gives Christie a 55%-37% rating. Quinnipiac respondents approve by 58% to 38%.  Both polls show women and Independent voters swinging strongly to approve of the Governor.

The narratives of both polls indicate that Christie’s growing popularity is the result of the national attention he has received due to his dalliance with the GOP presidential nomination race.  Neither poll ask respondents about Christie’s handling of Hurricane Irene.

While Irene might be a distant memory for pollsters and pundits, many many New Jerseyans are still dealing with the aftermath.

The Star Ledger’s Kathleen O’Brien says that women are warming to Christie because of how he handled Irene. She says Christies’s “Get the hell off of the beach” rebuke won women over because he was protecting the people rather than berating an opponent.

Women and Independents are approving of Christie because of the job he is doing.  The results of his work over the last 20 months are beginning to be felt.   His performance before, during and after Irene was immediate and tangible.  The impact of the reforms he’s fought and cajoled for are gradually paying dividends.

Christie has been traveling the state this week promoting the property tax relief that is resulting from the pension and benefits reform he negotiated in June.  That will help his numbers further.

Christie’s reforms are being appreciated in places where there are no press conferences as well.  

Wednesday evening at  the Henry Hudson Regional High School in Highlands there was a public hearing concerning the proposed tri-district shared services agreement for one Superintendent of Schools for the Atlantic Highlands Elementary, Highlands Elementary and Henry Hudson Regional school districts.  These three districts each have one school.  For decades there have been three superintendents.  Merging the administration of these schools is a no brainer.  Yet prior to the Christie administration, no brainer solutions couldn’t happen.

The vast majority of the speakers at the public hearing in Highlands spoke of how they have been wanting such a no brainer solution for years.  One women said she’s been advocating such since the 1970’s.

Similar reforms are taking place throughout New Jersey.  Common sense solutions that have been talked about for decades to no avail are now beginning to happen.  New Jersey is noticing.

That is why we approve of Chris Christie.  The national attention he has been getting is nice.  We enjoy it because we know him and he is one of us.  But we approve of the job he is doing in New Jersey, not because of the national media and the national GOP loves him.  We approve of him because he is doing what he said he would do.

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