Monmouth Poll: Booker holding a 13 point lead

Lonegan team says it’s a single digit race


With two weeks left in the special election campaign for U.S. Senate, Newark Mayor Cory Booker’s lead over former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan in down to 13 points, from 16 points in August, according to a Monmouth University poll of likely voters released this morning.

Despite holding his lead within the margins of error in the Monmouth polls, Booker’s favorability rating has taken a 20 point hit since August.  The percentage of those who view Booker favorably dropped 7% while those who view him unfavorably increased by 13%.

Lonegan’s overall favorability rating declined 4%.  35% said they view Lonegan favorably, up from 31% in August.  28% said they viewed Lonegan unfavorably, up 8% since August.

Lonegan’s name recognition has jumped 11% since August when 49% said they had no opinion of him.  38% said they have no opinion of him in today’s survey.

Booker has widened his lead with Independent voters from 2% in August to 6% today.  Monmouth Polling Director Patrick Murray said this figure is statistically insignificant.

Lonegan has shored up his support among Republicans a bit.  83% of Republican likely voters say they will vote for Lonegan, up from 79% in August.  14% of Republicans said they would vote for Booker, down from 16% in August.

Lonegan’s strategist and pollster Rick Shaftan says his man is down by only 6%, 48-42.   Shaftan thinks Booker’s shallow support in his base will translate into a lower turnout among Democratic voters than Republcans and conservatives. “Maybe I’m undercounting African-Americans who I have at 8% of the turnout,”Shaftan said,  “I know others expect more.  I do not.”  Shaftan said that the African-American vote was 12% of the turnout in last year’s election in New Jersey.

Posted: October 1st, 2013 | Author: | Filed under: 2013 Election, Cory Booker, Senate Special Election, Steve Lonegan | Tags: , , , , , | 3 Comments »

3 Comments on “Monmouth Poll: Booker holding a 13 point lead”

  1. If 14% Of Republicans said at 9:15 am on October 1st, 2013:

    say that they are voting for Booker, then they aren’t really Republicans are they?

    I’m a Republican that really doesn’t like Lonegan’s personality, but I am astute enough to know that there’s a HELL of a lot of difference between him and a full blown liberal extremist.

    Maybe that’s the problem. Booker is not being labeled enough as the real extremist.

  2. There ya go, said at 7:56 pm on October 1st, 2013:

    Exactly! We can be part of history in a good way, and prove all the pundits, Hollywood ghouls, media jerks, and lib string- pullers wrong, by being among the first to say: “hell, no, not another worthless lib in our, yes, OUR, US Senate!”

  3. David said at 10:44 pm on October 2nd, 2013:

    I really never considered this a potentially close race. It’s still not that close. However, this was supposed to be a 30 point or so race. If Lonegan comes within 10 points of Booker, Booker is probably going to have a primary opponent. I think Booker’s negatives have come out and might hold down Democratic turnout. It’s possible that some Dems might be ticked at Booker for his lack of support for the state ticket.