Are New Jersey voters (that would be you) greedy jerks or just stupid and impressionable?

By Art Gallagher, [email protected]

New Jersey voters are either greedy jerks or stupid and impressionable buffoons if you buy The Star Ledger Editorial Board’s (Tom Moran’s) reading of the QuinnipiacPoll released on Thursday.  The poll reported that New Jerseyans favor wage freezes for state workers, by a 53-42 margin, and oppose an increase in the gasoline tax by a 65-33 percent margin.

Hundreds of middle-aged people looking for work at Brookdale Community College job fair. April 4, 2014

New Jersey voters are jerks. The new state motto: “Screw you, not me.”

That is how Moran starts off his rant. He finishes by cutting the poll respondents a break. Maybe we aren’t greedy jerks, maybe we’ve been led to think the way we do.

We’ll cut the folks responding to the Quinnipiac poll a break – they’ve been goaded in this direction. Despite widespread reforms to state workers’ pay and benefits during the past four years, not to mention budget cuts that led to historic layoffs of police, teachers and firefighters, Gov. Chris Christie used his annual budget address to continue to blame state worker compensation for our fiscal aches and pains.

Hmmm.  Moran’s frustration is showing.  As the editorial page editor of the state’s largest media outlet, Moran should be the most powerful opinion maker in New Jersey. How could his readers be so stupid?!

Insulting your customers (readers) is a interesting strategy to stop the bleeding of a company (media outlet) that is contracting rapidly and recently announced 167 layoffs which followed millions in concessions from the outlet’s unionized workers and a smaller round of layoffs.

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Quinnipiac Poll: New Jersey Voters Approve Of Christie More Than Obama, Menendez or Booker

New Jersey Voters Disapprove of the State Legislature, 36-48%

By Art Gallagher, [email protected]

Governor Chris Christie at Belmar Town Hall. photo by Art Gallagher

A Quinnipiac Poll released this morning indicates that, despite the beating he has been taking in the local and national media since January, Governor Chris Christie has higher approval ratings than President Barack Obama, Senator Bob Menendez and Senator Cory Booker, among New Jersey voters.

Quinnipiac didn’t spin the poll that way in their narrative, but that is what the numbers indicate.  Most of the media coverage about this poll will be negative for Christie. Too many reporters and editors read the spin and not the numbers.

There is bad news for Christie in this poll.  His approval rating has dropped to 49-44% since January when it was 55-38%.

82% of Republicans and 54% of Independents approve of Christie’s job performance. Only 23% of Democrats give the Guv love.

The Governor’s bully rating is higher than ever before. Voters are now evenly split 48-48 on whether he’s a leader or a bully. In January they said he was more of a leader by 54-40 margin.

56% of voters think the Mastro Report, the internal investigation commissioned by the Governor’s Office that exonerated Christie from any involvement in the Bridgegate scandal was a “whitewash.”  Voters are split 46-46 over whether the legislative investigation into Bridgegate lead by Assemblyman John Wisniewski and Senator Loretta Weinberg is a legitimate investigation or a political witch-hunt.

Voters have a net negative impression of the State Legislature that crosses all party lines. Republicans disapprove of legislature 40-45, Democrats 40-43 and Independents 33-53.  The Legislature’s overall approval numbers are negative 36-48.

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Christie comes closest to besting Clinton, Virginia poll finds

Christie comes closest to besting Clinton, Virginia poll finds (via NJ.com)

TRENTON — In the swing state of Virginia, Gov. Chris Christie is the Republican with the best chance of beating former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a presidential faceoff, a new poll shows, though her lead us shrinking. According to a Quinnipiac…

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Quinnipiac Poll: New Jersey Voters Don’t Believe Christie Ordered GWB Lane Closures

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Quinnipiac Poll: “Unless the sky falls, Booker can start looking for a Washington apartment”

Former Monmouth County Democratic Chairman Vic Scudiery and Newark Mayor Cory Booker

Newark Mayor Cory Booker will be New Jersey’s next U.S. Senator if the results of the Quinnipiac poll of likely voters released this morning hold true through October 16.

Booker is leading Congressman Frank Pallone by 54%-17% in the August 13 Democratic primary with Congressman Rush Holt garnering support from 15% of the respondents and Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver with 5%.  65% of Democratic voters say their choice is firm.  8% are undecided.

In the Republican primary, former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan leads Dr. Alieta Eck 74%-10%.

In the October 16 special election, Booker is leading Lonegan 54%-29% among registered voters.

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Q Poll: Booker winning primary and election. Lonegan has large lead in GOP primary

The good news for Congressman Frank Pallone is that he is no longer running last in the independent polls for the Democratic nomination to replace the late Senator Frank Lautenberg in Washington.  The bad news; he’s losing to Newark Mayor Cory Booker by 42 points in the Quinnipiac Poll released this morning.

Quinnipiac surveyed 1068 registered New Jersey voters from July 2-7.   The did not survey likely voters.

Booker leads the Democratic field with 52%.  Pallone has 10%, Congressman Rush Holt 8%, and Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver has 3%.

In the Republican primary, former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan leads Dr. Alieta Eck 62%-5% is 28% undecided.

Dr. Eck is virtually unknown, with 91% saying they haven’t heard enough about her to form an opinion.

In the October 16 special election, Booker is leading Lonegan 53%-30%.

Pallone beat Lonegan 38%-34%. Holt beats Lonegan 37%-36%.  Lonegan beats Oliver 37%-35%.

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Quinnipiac Poll: Booker, Christie have large leads

In poll conducted over the weekend before Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver got into the U.S. Senate race, the Quinnipiac Polling Institute reports that Newark Mayor Cory Booker has leads of over 40% against Congressmen Frank Pallone and Rush Holt for the Democratic Special Election nomination for U.S. Senate.

In the gubernatorial race, Governor Chris Christie is maintaining his 30 point lead over State Senator Barbara Buono, the Democratic nominee.  Buono’s name recognition as risen from the high twenties to the low forties, but as voters get to know her, they don’t like her. Buono’s favorability rating is negative 18-23 percent, with 56% not knowing enough about her to express an opinion.

Presumptive GOP nominee for Senate, Steve Lonegan, trails Booker by 54%-27%.   Independents favor Booker over Lonegan 50%-25%.

Lonegan is within 10 points of Frank Pallone, and is virtually tied with the Monmouth County Democrat among Independents, leading by 29%-28%.

Lonegan loses to Holt by only 5% and is also tied with Independents against Holt.

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Double Dose of Bad News For Buono

Yet, good news for Trenton Democrats—the NJ Republicans are trying to lose

By Art Gallagher

State Senator Barbara Buono, the presumptive Democratic nominee for governor, received two doses of bad news today (so far) for her fledgling campaign to unseat Governor Chris Christie in November.

1) A Quinnipiac poll released today indicates that Buono has made no progress over the last month in increasing her dismal name recognition.  78% of those polled don’t know enough about Buono to form an opinion. That compares to 79% last month.  Of the few who recognize her name, 43% have an unfavorable opinion.

Christie’s numbers remain amazingly strong. 67% approve of the job he is doing as governor.  66% says he deserves to be reelected. In a head to head match up with Buono, Christie wins 58%-26%, with 13% out to lunch.

2) Even worse for Buono, PolitickerNJ reports that she is likely to be the only major party gubernatorial candidate in the history of New Jersey’s matching funds campaign program not to qualify for the maximum amount. PolitickerNJ said that Buono has raised only $29,000 per week since she declared her candidacy in December.  In order to earn the maximum $2 million in state matching funds for the primary, she would have to raise $216,000 per week over the next six weeks of the primary campaign.

Christie has opted out of the state matching funds program and has raised upwards of $5 million to date for the primary.

Trenton Republicans Trying to Lose

With Chrisite’s polling and financial numbers so strong, one would think that the Trenton Democrats that control the legislature would be concerned about Christie coattails.  Trenton Republicans seem enthused about the prospect of taking control of the legislature, but so far their campaign is deploying the stupidest strategy imaginable.

I’m not a professional political strategist, I just play one of the Internet.  In my not so humble opinion the NJ GOP‘s campaign against Corzine Democrats is the dumbest political strategy since Christine O’Donnell declared she is not a witch.

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Q Poll: New Jersey Wants to Reelect Christie, Divided On Presidential Bid

Partisan control preference of State Legislature narrows

Support for same-sex marriage grows strongly

New Jersey voters’ affections for Governor Chris Christie are not waning, according to a Quinnipiac Poll released this morning.

70% approve of the Christie’s job performance, including 48% of Democrats.  66% think he deserves to be reelected.  Democrats narrowly side with reelecting the governor, 44%-43% with 13% unsure or not answering.

The 13% of unsure Democrats may not know who Barbara Buono is. “Corzine’s Budget Chair,” as Christie refers to the presumed Democratic gubernatorial nominee on the stump, is unknown by 79% of the electorate, including 79% of Democrats.  Of the 20% who know of Buono, only half view her favorably.  Buono’s name recognition ticked up 4 points since Q’s February poll when only half of the then 16% of voters viewed her favorably.  If this trend continues through November, Buono will be known by 56% of the voters, 28% of whom will view her unfavorably.

If the election were held today, Christie would win, 60%-25%.

41% think Christie would make a good president.  44% think he would not make a good president. 15% are unsure.  46% would like to see him run for president in 2016, 47% would rather he did not.

On the question of which party should control the State Legislature, the Democrats still win, but the trend has been moving towards the Republican Party since November.  Currently 43% favor Democratic control, 42% favor Republican control and 15% are not sure.

Support for same-sex marriage in New Jersey has grown strongly since last May when 53% told Quinnipiac they favored it and 42% opposed it.  In today’s poll, 60% favor same-sex marriage and 30% oppose.

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Do New Jersey Voters Care About Menendez Scandal?

Which poll to believe?

New Jersey voters  either strongly disapprove of New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez and think he’s dishonest, or they really don’t care much about the news of his ongoing scandals, depending on which poll you trust.

This morning the Quinnipiac Polling Institute released a poll that indicates that Menendez approval rating is down 15 points in one month. By a 44%-28% margin, New Jersey voters say he is not honest or trustworthy. Menendez’s approval numbers are upside down with 41% of voters disapproving of him and only 36% approving.

Just a week ago, Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press released a poll with the headline Sen Menendez Unaffected By Donor Scandal . The Monmouth/APP poll says that 68% of New Jersey voters had heard about “the donor scandal” but that only 24% thought the senator was involved in any wrongdoing. The poll said that 65% either hadn’t formed an opinion or hadn’t heard enough.  The Monmouth/APP poll said that Menendez’s approval ratings werre similar to prior ratings over the last two years. Last week, 41% of the voters approved of the job Menendez is doing and only 28% disapproved.

Menendez has been in Afghanistan and out of the news for most of the week between poll releases.

Usually the Monmouth and Quinnipiac polls report consistent results, within a point or 2 and within the margin of error. But this is the second time within the last year that there has been such a large disparity between the two respected independent pollsters.  Last April, Monmouth reported Governor Christie’s approval ratings were 11 points lower than Quinnipiac reported a week prior.  There was so much talk about the different numbers last April that Monmouth Polling Director Patrick Murray wrote a column defending his work and criticising Quinnipiac.

This time around, Murray’s poll release is flawed.  His numbers are fine.  It’s his spin, which determines how most news outlets report the poll, that is the problem.

What was asked and when was it asked?

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