Murray: Dems will get their map

By Art Gallagher

New Jersey will have a legislature controlled by the Democratic party for another ten years, according to Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray.

In a column posted on Politickernj and on his own blog Murray dissects the tea leaves of that Alan Rosenthal, the tie breaking 11th member of redistricting commission, revealed in his public statements about the standards that will be used to determine the new legislative map.  Murray concludes that the Rosenthal approved map will result in 22 “safe” Democratic districts and 18 “safe” Republican districts.

Murray says that Rosenthal values “continuity of representation” ….that incumbents should be drawn into districts where the majority of voters are already represented by them…over “competitiveness”  and that as a result the new map will have a “deminis” impact on the status quo.

Murray also implied that the Democrats have outmaneuvered the Republican in there redistricting preparation. He says Democrats organized themselves to negotiate with the 11th members of the commission whereas the Republicans organized themselves to challenge the new map in court, where they will likely lose.

Murray’s margin of error is +/- 100% of Rosenthal’s consistency with his historical body of work.

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Doesn’t this sound familiar?

From CampaignsandElections.com :

NJ-06 is Tight. Adjusted for 2004, it is a Nail Biter

Written by Noah Rothman on October 26, 2010, 4:43 PM

A Monmouth University poll released today shows that the race in New Jersey’s 6th district between Rep. Frank Pallone and the Republican candidate, Anna Little, has tightened significantly.

 

In the poll, Pallone leads Little with 52 to 45 percentage points. A Monmouth University poll from October 6th had Little only taking 33 percent to Pallone’s 58 percent of the vote. This 7-point margin in a district that has returned Pallone by no less than 67 percent of the vote in the last three cycles means this will be a race to watch on election night.

 

The poll, however, could underestimate Little’s performance. The Monmouth University poll’s sample was 40 percent Democrats, 22 percent Republicans and 38 percent Independents. 40 percent Democrat is probably close to correct; exit polls from 2004, 2006 and 2008 placed the Democratic share of the vote at 39, 41 and 40 percent for each respective year. In 2004 the Republican sample was 31 percent and the independent sample was 30 percent. In 2006 the Republican sample was 28 percent (a depressed year for Republicans nation wide, but especially dower in the North East) and the independent Sample was 31 percent. In 2008 the Republican sample was 33 percent and the independent sample was 38 percent.

 

It is fairly dubious assertion that this year will yield fewer Republicans at the polls than even 2006. It is even more suspicious that 38 percent of the Monmouth University poll’s sample is 38 percent; this independent sample outperforms their best year by 7 points. For a particularly good Republican year, when both the GOP and Democratic bases were engaged, 2004 is a decent place to start.

 

If you adjust the sample of 647 likely voters (257 Democrats, 141 Republican and 249 Independents) to reflect the exit polls from 2004, (253 Democrats, 201 Republicans and 194 Independents) then the race becomes 51 to 49 percent for Pallone. This is a minor adjustment from Monmouth University’s findings for Pallone but a major boost for Little. It also puts this race within the margin of error for most pollsters. This race could be a lot closer than Monmouth University’s polls show.

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Look who is covering Little and Pallone!

The Asbury Park Press has a front page piece about the Monmouth University Poll on CD-6.  There is even a positive headline for Anna Little,
Poll: Little closing in on Pallone in 6th District race.  Good for the Nudniks, they easily could have written, Little still trailing Pallone.

They’re probably trying to get back into the CNN news feed.

Actually the credit should go to Patrick Murray.  The Nudnik article was basically a rewrite of his press release for the poll.

With this line, Frank Pallone will need to bet on a strong turnout in more Democratic areas of this district to fend off this challenge,” Murray acknowledged that the incumbent is not winning this race.  The poll predicts a strong Democratic turnout in its sample.  Such a turnout can not be counted on.

There is no question this race will be determined on turnout.  As my friends at InTheLobby write today, Independents are siding with Republicans nationally by 14%.  In NJ-6, Little leads Pallone by 21% among Independents, according to Murray. Up from 14% three weeks ago.  The increase in support among Independents correlates with Little’s increased name recognition.  Three weeks ago, 45% of the voters had no opinion of her. Now that number is down to a still very high 31%.

Frank Pallone is on the verge of losing to a relative unknown.  As Little becomes more known, her support swells.  She’s easy to vote for, despite Pallone and Barbara Buono trying to paint her as extreme and out of the mainstream.

Murray credits the “Anna’s Army” ground game, lead by “General” Russ Cote, as the reason that Little has closed the gap so significantly in three weeks.  There is no question that The Bayshore Tea Party’s passionate and tireless troops continue change the political landscape of Central Jersey.  If Anna wins, they will have made that unpredictable result happen.

However, also contributing to Anna’s surge is Governor Christie’s personal involvement in the campaign, and Frank Pallone’s own TV ads. Pallone’s “positive” ad emphasises how out of touch he is with the district.  In my own unscientific poll of 5 CD-6 voters, 80% said they were less likely to vote for Pallone after seeing the ad. 20% were undecided.  Pallone’s “negative” ad attacking Little is a complete failure.  100% do not believe Little is the extremist Pallone portrays her to be. The ad can’t help but increase her name recognition.

Finally, Diane Gooch’s ad for Voice For My Child , while not mentioning Little, has given Independents an additional reason to vote against Pallone.

Little’s TV advertising will start airing tomorrow.  Her direct mail pieces have been going out for the last week.  She is poised to win this, but still needs help. 

Do what you can to get out the vote for Anna Little in CD-6.  Donate, talk to friends and family, email your friends links to her ads.  As Governor Christie has repeatedly said, we don’t want to wake up on November 3 regretting the one thing we didn’t do. 

If you’re in CD-12, or know people who vote in CD-12, do the same for Scott Sipprelle.  Send them the link to this ad.

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Little Narrows The Gap To 7% in New Monmouth University Poll

In a poll released this morning by Patrick Murray, Executive Director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, GOP challenger Anna Little has closed the gap in her race to unseat 22 year incumbent Frank Pallone to 7% with a margin of error of +/- 3.9%.   An October 6 poll by Murray had Pallone leading by 12%.

Like his October 6 poll, Murray’s sample assumes a heavy Democratic turnout in the 6th congressional district.  The partisan break down of the respondents in the earlier poll was 53% registered Democrats, 23% Republicans and 24% Independent.  The sample of today’s poll is 51% D, 24% R and 25% “other.”

The registration breakdown of the district is 37% D, 15% R and 48% I.

Murray says Little is leading Pallone in Monmouth County by a margin of 52% to 45%, up from losing 47%-49% on October 6th.  Murray says the difference is partisan.  However, in the Monmouth County portions of the district, Dems are 29% of registered voters, Rs 19% and Independents 51%.

Murray says Little is losing in the Middlesex, Somerset and Union portions of the district by 58% to 37%.  The registration break down in those counties is 44% D, 11% R and 45% I.

Middlesex, Union and Somerset comprise 51% of the voters in the district, Monmouth 49%.  In last year’s general election Governor Christie won the district by 8% with Monmouth County accounting for 52% of the turnout.

If Little turns out Monmouth County the way Christie did, and if 35% or more of Independents show up to vote, Little wins. Murray says Little leads Pallone among I’s by 58% to 37% compared to 51% to 38% three weeks ago.

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Monmouth Poll: CD-12 Holt 51% – Sipprelle 46% Margin of Error 3.9%

The Monmouth University Polling Institute released a poll of NJ-12 this morning indicating that Congressman Rush Holt leads GOP candidate Scott Sipprelle in their race to represent the district by a margin of 51% -46%.

A copy of the poll release can be found here.

According to the poll, Holt leads Sipprelle by a wide margin in the western parts of the district; Mercer County and part of Hunterdon, 63% to 33%.  Sipprelle leads Holt in Monmouth County 58% – 33%.  In the central part of the district, parts of Middlesex and part of Franklin Township in Somerset, Holt’s lead is 4%, 50%-46%.

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Has Murray Changed His Mind, Or Has He Lost It?

By Art Gallagher

The political website formerly known as politicsnj.com is reporting that Monmouth University Polling Institute Executive Director Patrick Murray has issued a press released denying that he backed off his polling numbers of October 6th indicating that Frank Pallone is leading Anna Little by 12 points in the CD-6 congressional race.

According to the website, Murray said, ”

“It has come to our attention that the campaign of Anna Little, Republican candidate for Congress in New Jersey’s 6th District, issued a press release claiming that the Monmouth University Poll revised its official poll results for the election in that race,” Murray said in a statement. “This is patently untrue.  The poll report we issued on October 6 (http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP…) is the only official number we produced.”

Note the spin, “official number.”

This is what Murray had to say on MoreMonmouthMusings last week,

Art’s original criticism of our voter turnout model is a fair one, since no one knows what Nov. 2’s electorate will look like and I responded to that by re-running our numbers using his assumptions and providing that data.

Murray’s re-run numbers resulted in a margin on 9%, a 25% difference from his “official” numbers.

Murray re-ran his numbers, on his own volition, after reading this post criticising his voter sample.  MMM called him the following day for clarification on his sample of 2 of 4 voters.  Much to my surprise, he already had the new calculations ready when I called.

Murray issued his denial in response to this press release from the Little campaign.  Murray is parsing words.  He uses the words “official numbers” twice, while failing to acknowledge to the media at large that he did indeed adjust his numbers.  No where did the Little camp say “official numbers.” They said he adjusted his numbers, which he did.

Murray needs to be forthright about this, or he risks damaging his already diminished credibility further.

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Patrick Murray Responds

Patrick Murray said at 8:10 pm on October 8th, 2010:

The problem with the so-called math error is that you are using unweighted sample sizes (which pollsters use to estimate error) to back into the horse race numbers, rather than using the weighted adjustments to the subgroups upon which our final numbers are based. You can find those weighted adjustment in our methodology statement (which Art originally did, but Bill didn’t). The difference between what unweighted and weighted “n sizes” is something that every pollster DOES learn in polling school. And since we adhere to principles of full disclosure, we give both the unweighted and weighted information. Unfortunately, it is lack of public knowledge about polling principles that lead many other pollsters to withhold disclosure, so they can avoid uninformed critiques. We at Monmouth believe that all our data should be out there. Art’s original criticism of our voter turnout model is a fair one, since no one knows what Nov. 2’s electorate will look like and I responded to that by re-running our numbers using his assumptions and providing that data. This criticism, however, is just plain wrong.

Editors note:  I’m relieved to hear a credible explanation from Patrick.  While I will lose no sleep derailing the careers of Frank Pallone, Rush Holt and John D’Amico, MMM means Patrick Murray no harm.

I sat on the math discrepancy story most of the day waiting for Patrick to call.  I sought out expert advise that was not available.  Next time I’ll wait longer. ~ Art

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“Patrick Murray needs to go back to school”

~ Governor Chris Christie on NJ101.5’s Ask the Governor, September 29, 2010

Monmouth University’s CD-6 poll has math errors!

By Art Gallagher

Turns out that Governor Christie was right about Patrick. Not just because Murray polled non-voters in his approval poll of the governor. Murray’s math is wrong in the CD-6 poll he released on Tuesday.

As much as I have enjoyed the kudos I have received since Murray said he revised his numbers based on upon my assumptions, I don’t fully deserve them. I challenged Murray’s assumptions about the demographics of the district. It never occurred to me to check his arithmetic.

Fortunately, it did occur to an MMM reader, Bill Wolstromer of Colts Neck.

Refer to Murray’s numbers on page 2 of his press release.

Compare Murray’s math to Wolstromer’s email to Murray:

From: wolstromer AT aol.com
To: pdmurray At monmouth.edu
Sent: Thu, Oct 7, 2010 2:48 pm

Doing the math, Murray’s original poll release should have announced a 9% margin between Frank Pallone and Anna Little. Not the 12% margin that was announced.  That’s a 25% difference.

Murray has yet to respond to Wolstromer’s email, or to my phone call this morning seeking comment or clarification.

Murrary owes an explanation to the media and the people of New Jersey who have come to rely upon him as a credible pollster.

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Murray re-crunches his numbers. Pallone’s lead slips to 9%

Patrick Murray, the Executive Director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, told MoreMonmouthMusings that he re-ran the numbers of his October 5 poll using the assumptions we used in analysing his numbers.

Murray said,”your assumptions are as good as mine, and this is a very volatile electorate.”

Based on his revised analysis, Murray says that Frank Pallone leads Anna Little in NJ-6 by 51%-42%, a 9 point margin.  That’s 3 points closer than his original analysis and 24 points closer than the All Phor Pallone newspaper’s analysis of the poll.

Murray also said that the list his used from Aristotle Inc. has approximately half of all registered voters in CD-6 as “likely voters” based on a 2 or the last four election vote as the standard.  That makes a lot more sense than to 60,053 two of four number that was reported to MMM from the GOP’s records of voting history.

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Musings on the Monmouth University CD-6 Poll

By Art Gallagher

Last month on the NJ 101.5 “Ask the Governor” hour, Governor Christie said that Patrick Murray needs to go back to school.  Murray predicted that Jon Corzine would be narrowly reelected last year.   Given the Governor’s remarks, Murray’s spotty history, and given the pork that Frank Pallone has bestowed on Monmouth University lately, I figured I take a critical look at the CD-6 poll released today.

Murray said that Anna Little leads among Independents by 13%,yet is losing by 12%.  Given my understanding the of the sixth district, my gut instinct was that that the race should be even closer.

Murray polled 643 “likely voters” between October 2 and 5. 53% registered Democrats, 23% Republicans and 24% Independent, according to his press release.

The actual registration make up of the district is 38% Democrat, 15% Republican and 48% Independent, as of August 25, according to Labelsandlists.com

Murray classifies a likely voter as someone who has voted in 2 of the last four general elections.  Of the 333,519 registered voters in CD-6, 60,053 voted in 2 of the four last general elections; 23,750 (40%) Democrats, 27,791 (46%) Independents and 8,512 (14%) Republicans, according to GOP records of voter activity.

Of the 50, 463 registered Republicans in the district, 13, 744  voted in the primary last June. 38,266 voted in last year’s general election when we elected Governor Christie. 32, 086 voted in the 2006 mid-term election.

Of the 160,334 undeclared voters, 47,750 (30%) voted in last year’s gubernatorial election.  29,758 (18%) voted in the 2006 mid-term.

Of the 122,722 registered Democrats, 78,533 (64%) voted in 2009 and 69,449 (57%) voted in the 2006 mid-term.

Given these numbers, Murray’s “random sample” seems flawed.

Using these numbers and Murray’s margins, MMM makes the following analytical but scientifically flawed assessment of the CD -6 race:

MMM predicts that Republican turnout in the district will be slightly stronger than last years gubernatorial election turnout of 76%.  Republicans are motivated and the Tea Party ground game will get them out.  Look for a 78% turnout with 83% of that vote (Murray’s margin) going to Anna Little.  That’s 32,670 votes for Little, 5117 votes for Pallone (Murray says that Pallone will get 13% of the Republican vote).

MMM predicts that the Independent, or undeclared, turnout will slightly weaker than last years turnout, but much stronger than the 2006 mid-term. Call it 28%, or 44,894 votes. Murray says that 51% of Independents are for Little, 38% for Pallone, and 11% undecided.  Somebody smart recently said that undecideds usually break against the incumbent.  I’m giving Little 8% of the undecided Independents and Pallone 3%.  That comes to 26,487 votes for Little, 18,407 for Pallone.

MMM predicts a low turnout among registered Democrats in the district. 64% of Democrats came out to vote in the gubernatorial election last year and Christie still won the district.  It is a safe bet that many of those D’s came out to vote against the supremely unpopular Jon Corzine.  Frank Pallone does not spur the passion, pro or con, that Jon Corzine did.  The 2006 mid-term was a big Democratic anti-war, anti Bush year.  It was also a U.S. Senate year with Robert Menendez facing off against Tom Kean, Jr on the top of the ballot.  69,449 D’s voted in CD-6 in 2006.  51,462 voted in 2007 when the state legislature was at the top of the ticket.  Those are the hard core voters. With no  Senate race on the top of the ticket and without strong negative motivation ( the Iraq war and Bush), MMM predicts that only 58,000 D’s will come out to vote on November 2 in CD-6.  Using Murray’s margins, 89% will vote for Frank Pallone, 51,620, 8% will vote for Anna Little, 4,640.  Murray’s 3% undecided D’s will stay home.

Given all of the above, MMM has Pallone winning by 11,347 of 138,941 votes cast.  An 8% margin, with 27 days to go.

Much has been made of Frank Pallone’s huge financial advantage over Anna Little.  Pallone has $4 million.  Little has $200K and might raise another $200K in the next few weeks.  But there have been no signs that Pallone is spending his war chest.  Is the money gap significant if Pallone doesn’t spend on this race and keeps hording his cash for his planned U.S. Senate race?  It is to the extent that his money keeps potential Little donors holding on to theirs.

Little can close that gap by winning back the majority of the GOP voters leaning towards Pallone.  I find Murray’s margin of 13% of GOP voters going for Pallone hard to believe.  If Little whittles that down to 3% and wins most of the GOP undecided voters, she picks up 7065 votes.

She will then need 4,282 more Independents and 1 Democrat to win, recounts and voter irregularities in New Brunswick not withstanding.

In order to do that, Little, the GOP and the Tea Party need to increase the Independent turnout to about 35%.  If that happens, Little wins.

If Little had $1 million for media buys, this wouldn’t even be a race.  Murray says that 45% of the voters have no opinion of her, yet she is losing in his poll, by only 12%.  Those are terrible numbers for Frank Pallone.

Little can still win this race.  All it will take is another $200-300K and another 100 volunteers on the ground.  Click here and make it so.

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