The Asbury Park Press has a front page piece about the Monmouth University Poll on CD-6. There is even a positive headline for Anna Little,
Poll: Little closing in on Pallone in 6th District race. Good for the Nudniks, they easily could have written, Little still trailing Pallone.
They’re probably trying to get back into the CNN news feed.
Actually the credit should go to Patrick Murray. The Nudnik article was basically a rewrite of his press release for the poll.
With this line, Frank Pallone will need to bet on a strong turnout in more Democratic areas of this district to fend off this challenge,” Murray acknowledged that the incumbent is not winning this race. The poll predicts a strong Democratic turnout in its sample. Such a turnout can not be counted on.
There is no question this race will be determined on turnout. As my friends at InTheLobby write today, Independents are siding with Republicans nationally by 14%. In NJ-6, Little leads Pallone by 21% among Independents, according to Murray. Up from 14% three weeks ago. The increase in support among Independents correlates with Little’s increased name recognition. Three weeks ago, 45% of the voters had no opinion of her. Now that number is down to a still very high 31%.
Frank Pallone is on the verge of losing to a relative unknown. As Little becomes more known, her support swells. She’s easy to vote for, despite Pallone and Barbara Buono trying to paint her as extreme and out of the mainstream.
Murray credits the “Anna’s Army” ground game, lead by “General” Russ Cote, as the reason that Little has closed the gap so significantly in three weeks. There is no question that The Bayshore Tea Party’s passionate and tireless troops continue change the political landscape of Central Jersey. If Anna wins, they will have made that unpredictable result happen.
However, also contributing to Anna’s surge is Governor Christie’s personal involvement in the campaign, and Frank Pallone’s own TV ads. Pallone’s “positive” ad emphasises how out of touch he is with the district. In my own unscientific poll of 5 CD-6 voters, 80% said they were less likely to vote for Pallone after seeing the ad. 20% were undecided. Pallone’s “negative” ad attacking Little is a complete failure. 100% do not believe Little is the extremist Pallone portrays her to be. The ad can’t help but increase her name recognition.
Little’s TV advertising will start airing tomorrow. Her direct mail pieces have been going out for the last week. She is poised to win this, but still needs help.
Do what you can to get out the vote for Anna Little in CD-6. Donate, talk to friends and family, email your friends links to her ads. As Governor Christie has repeatedly said, we don’t want to wake up on November 3 regretting the one thing we didn’t do.