By Art Gallagher
The political website formerly known as politicsnj.com is reporting that Monmouth University Polling Institute Executive Director Patrick Murray has issued a press released denying that he backed off his polling numbers of October 6th indicating that Frank Pallone is leading Anna Little by 12 points in the CD-6 congressional race.
According to the website, Murray said, ”
“It has come to our attention that the campaign of Anna Little, Republican candidate for Congress in New Jersey’s 6th District, issued a press release claiming that the Monmouth University Poll revised its official poll results for the election in that race,” Murray said in a statement. “This is patently untrue. The poll report we issued on October 6 (http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP…) is the only official number we produced.”
Note the spin, “official number.”
This is what Murray had to say on MoreMonmouthMusings last week,
Art’s original criticism of our voter turnout model is a fair one, since no one knows what Nov. 2’s electorate will look like and I responded to that by re-running our numbers using his assumptions and providing that data.
Murray’s re-run numbers resulted in a margin on 9%, a 25% difference from his “official” numbers.
Murray re-ran his numbers, on his own volition, after reading this post criticising his voter sample. MMM called him the following day for clarification on his sample of 2 of 4 voters. Much to my surprise, he already had the new calculations ready when I called.
Murray issued his denial in response to this press release from the Little campaign. Murray is parsing words. He uses the words “official numbers” twice, while failing to acknowledge to the media at large that he did indeed adjust his numbers. No where did the Little camp say “official numbers.” They said he adjusted his numbers, which he did.
Murray needs to be forthright about this, or he risks damaging his already diminished credibility further.