Yet, good news for Trenton Democrats—the NJ Republicans are trying to lose
By Art Gallagher
State Senator Barbara Buono, the presumptive Democratic nominee for governor, received two doses of bad news today (so far) for her fledgling campaign to unseat Governor Chris Christie in November.
1) A Quinnipiac poll released today indicates that Buono has made no progress over the last month in increasing her dismal name recognition. 78% of those polled don’t know enough about Buono to form an opinion. That compares to 79% last month. Of the few who recognize her name, 43% have an unfavorable opinion.
Christie’s numbers remain amazingly strong. 67% approve of the job he is doing as governor. 66% says he deserves to be reelected. In a head to head match up with Buono, Christie wins 58%-26%, with 13% out to lunch.
2) Even worse for Buono, PolitickerNJ reports that she is likely to be the only major party gubernatorial candidate in the history of New Jersey’s matching funds campaign program not to qualify for the maximum amount. PolitickerNJ said that Buono has raised only $29,000 per week since she declared her candidacy in December. In order to earn the maximum $2 million in state matching funds for the primary, she would have to raise $216,000 per week over the next six weeks of the primary campaign.
Christie has opted out of the state matching funds program and has raised upwards of $5 million to date for the primary.
Trenton Republicans Trying to Lose
With Chrisite’s polling and financial numbers so strong, one would think that the Trenton Democrats that control the legislature would be concerned about Christie coattails. Trenton Republicans seem enthused about the prospect of taking control of the legislature, but so far their campaign is deploying the stupidest strategy imaginable.
I’m not a professional political strategist, I just play one of the Internet. In my not so humble opinion the NJ GOP‘s campaign against Corzine Democrats is the dumbest political strategy since Christine O’Donnell declared she is not a witch.
Christie’s overall approval rating is 63%, according to Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. The governor’s ratings are slightly stronger among registered voters, 65% of whom approve of his job performance. 86% of Republicans, 64% of Independents and 52% of give Christie high marks.
On the stump, Christie has been promoting how he has reduced the size of government in New Jersey since taking office. “There’s over 5000 fewer employees in state government today than when I took office, and over 20,000 fewer government employees across the state,” Christie says in a campaign video, “We promised to make government smaller, we’ve made government smaller.” Despite these facts, 54% of public workers approve of Christie’s job performance compared to 37% who do not.
Since Superstorm Sandy, there has been virtually no “gender gap” in Christie’s approval ratings as measured by the Monmouth Poll. In a poll released on September 27, 2012, one month before Sandy, men approved of Christie’s performance by a 61%-31% margin. Women approved by only 6 points, 47%-41%. In Murray’s first post Sandy poll on Christie, in December, the gender gap closed. 68% of men and 66% of women approved in December. The trend continued in the February poll with 69% of men and 70% of women approving of the governor. In today’s poll, the gender gap exceeded the statistical margin of error for the first time since Sandy, with the surprising result that women approve of Christie more than men do. Women approve by a 65%-26% margin and men approve by 61%-27%.
If Murray polled a head to head match up between Christie and the presumptive Democratic nominee for governor, State Senator Barbara Buono, he did not report the results today. He did report that 59% of registered voters think that Christie deserves a second term.
“You’re very nice, Senator, seriously,” Matthews said to end the interview to Buono’s disapproving smirk.
Matthews spent the first two thirds of the segment setting Governor Chris Christie up as impossible to beat in November. A “Dawn Quixote” graphic, inferring that Buono’s quest to defeat Christie in November is an Impossible Dream, displayed for the entire interview.
State Sen Barbara Buono and US Sen Bob Mendendez. Photo: Barbara Buono/facebook
Barbara Buono, the presumptive Democratic nominee for governor will be a guest on Hardball with Chris Matthews this evening at 5:45.
A Democrat who does not want to be known for talking to a Republican blogger told MMM that Buono receives tens of thousands of dollars in campaign contributions every time she goes on MSNBC.
Last month Monmouth Democratic Chairman Vin Gopal went on NJTV to make the case that Governor Chris Christie is leading the in the polls so strongly because of how he has handled the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy and because the presumed Democratic nominee for governor, State Senator Barbara Buono is largely unknown.Canada
In the month since Gopal’s interview, Buono’s name recognition has ticked up only 4 points. Only 20% of the electorate know enough about her to form an opinion. Of that 20%, only half have a favorable opinion of her, according to the Quinnipiac Poll. Despite extensive free media granted Buono by New Jersey’s threelargestnewspapers, Christie has high favorable ratings even among registered Democrats.
Partisan control preference of State Legislature narrows
Support for same-sex marriage grows strongly
New Jersey voters’ affections for Governor Chris Christie are not waning, according to a Quinnipiac Poll released this morning.
70% approve of the Christie’s job performance, including 48% of Democrats. 66% think he deserves to be reelected. Democrats narrowly side with reelecting the governor, 44%-43% with 13% unsure or not answering.
The 13% of unsure Democrats may not know who Barbara Buono is. “Corzine’s Budget Chair,” as Christie refers to the presumed Democratic gubernatorial nominee on the stump, is unknown by 79% of the electorate, including 79% of Democrats. Of the 20% who know of Buono, only half view her favorably. Buono’s name recognition ticked up 4 points since Q’s February poll when only half of the then 16% of voters viewed her favorably. If this trend continues through November, Buono will be known by 56% of the voters, 28% of whom will view her unfavorably.
If the election were held today, Christie would win, 60%-25%.
41% think Christie would make a good president. 44% think he would not make a good president. 15% are unsure. 46% would like to see him run for president in 2016, 47% would rather he did not.
On the question of which party should control the State Legislature, the Democrats still win, but the trend has been moving towards the Republican Party since November. Currently 43% favor Democratic control, 42% favor Republican control and 15% are not sure.
Support for same-sex marriage in New Jersey has grown strongly since last May when 53% told Quinnipiac they favored it and 42% opposed it. In today’s poll, 60% favor same-sex marriage and 30% oppose.
Governor Chris Christie continues to enjoy sky high approval ratings among New Jersey voters and is heavily favored to be reelected in November, according to a Farleigh Dickinson University Public Mind Poll released this morning.
66% of New Jersey voters, including 55% of Democrats and 61% of Independents approve of the governor’s job performance. If the election were held today, Christie would defeat presumptive Democratic nominee Barbara Buono by 58%-22% with 20% unsure. Christie would garner 36% of the Democratic vote.
48% say they like the Christie personally and like his policies. 18% like him, but not his policies. 12% don’t like the man, but like his policies and 17% don’t like him or his policies. 5% are comatose and were awakened by the pollster’s phone call.
Trenton Democrats’ continuing quest to turn Governor Christie’s strongest issue against him suffered a set back yesterday when AshBritt CEO Randall Perkins won over Democratic members of a Joint Legislative Oversight Committee and flummoxed presumed gubernatorial nominee Barbara Buono by calling her on the political motivation of her questioning.
Facing four hours of questioning by the bi-partisan committee chaired by Senator Bob Gordon (D-Bergen), Perkins frequently praised the legislators for exercising their oversight duties, while combatively swatting back Democratic allegations of impropriety disguised as questions.
Shut out of the Monmouth County Democratic nominating convention, gubernatorial candidate Willie Araujo disputed Chairman Vin Gopal’s assertion that his nominating process is transparent. Araujo said Gopal should resign immediately.
Araujo said he called Gopal multiple times about his candidacy and never heard back from the chairman. Gopal said that the Monmouth Democrats had a post on facebook on February 3 asking potential candidates for governor to submit their paperwork by February 9. Only State Senator Barbara Buono responded to the facebook post. Buono appeared at the convention is Asbury Park this morning and was nominated by acclamation.
In addition to Gopal, Araujo said he left messages for the Democratic County Chairs in Atlantic, Bergen, Camden, Essex, and Gloucester counties. He said that Somerset County Chair Peg Schaffer spoke with him for over an hour.
“Chairwoman Peg Schaffer agreed to speak with me, we spoke for almost an hour and agreed that it’s up to the voters to decide their next Governor,” said Araujo,”Chairman Gopal, you should talk to Chairwoman Schaffer and take some lessons from her. You cannot endorse someone simply based on friendship. I think the Democrats in Monmouth County deserve better. You cannot be one sided… You should resign immediately.”
Buono’s Challengers Not Invited to Monmouth Democratic Convention
It’s unimaginable that the Democratic Party would nominate Carl Bergmanson or Willie Araujo over Barbara Buono for Governor. However, Monmouth County Democratic Chairman Vin Gopal is apparently worried.
Fresh on the heels of Sea Bright Mayor Dina Long’s defection from the Buono Brigade with her endorsement of Chris Christie, Gopal sent out a plea for volunteers to collect signatures for the presumptive nominee:
State Senator Barbara Buono, the presumptive Democratic nominee for governor, received two doses of bad news today (so far) for her fledgling campaign to unseat Governor Chris Christie in November.
