Cook Report Moves NJ-6 From Solid D to Likely D

The Cook Political Report has changed its rating of the NJ-6 race from “Solid D” to “Likely D.”

“Likely” means that “These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become engaged.”

The wave is building.

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Look who is covering Little and Pallone!

The Asbury Park Press has a front page piece about the Monmouth University Poll on CD-6.  There is even a positive headline for Anna Little,
Poll: Little closing in on Pallone in 6th District race.  Good for the Nudniks, they easily could have written, Little still trailing Pallone.

They’re probably trying to get back into the CNN news feed.

Actually the credit should go to Patrick Murray.  The Nudnik article was basically a rewrite of his press release for the poll.

With this line, Frank Pallone will need to bet on a strong turnout in more Democratic areas of this district to fend off this challenge,” Murray acknowledged that the incumbent is not winning this race.  The poll predicts a strong Democratic turnout in its sample.  Such a turnout can not be counted on.

There is no question this race will be determined on turnout.  As my friends at InTheLobby write today, Independents are siding with Republicans nationally by 14%.  In NJ-6, Little leads Pallone by 21% among Independents, according to Murray. Up from 14% three weeks ago.  The increase in support among Independents correlates with Little’s increased name recognition.  Three weeks ago, 45% of the voters had no opinion of her. Now that number is down to a still very high 31%.

Frank Pallone is on the verge of losing to a relative unknown.  As Little becomes more known, her support swells.  She’s easy to vote for, despite Pallone and Barbara Buono trying to paint her as extreme and out of the mainstream.

Murray credits the “Anna’s Army” ground game, lead by “General” Russ Cote, as the reason that Little has closed the gap so significantly in three weeks.  There is no question that The Bayshore Tea Party’s passionate and tireless troops continue change the political landscape of Central Jersey.  If Anna wins, they will have made that unpredictable result happen.

However, also contributing to Anna’s surge is Governor Christie’s personal involvement in the campaign, and Frank Pallone’s own TV ads. Pallone’s “positive” ad emphasises how out of touch he is with the district.  In my own unscientific poll of 5 CD-6 voters, 80% said they were less likely to vote for Pallone after seeing the ad. 20% were undecided.  Pallone’s “negative” ad attacking Little is a complete failure.  100% do not believe Little is the extremist Pallone portrays her to be. The ad can’t help but increase her name recognition.

Finally, Diane Gooch’s ad for Voice For My Child , while not mentioning Little, has given Independents an additional reason to vote against Pallone.

Little’s TV advertising will start airing tomorrow.  Her direct mail pieces have been going out for the last week.  She is poised to win this, but still needs help. 

Do what you can to get out the vote for Anna Little in CD-6.  Donate, talk to friends and family, email your friends links to her ads.  As Governor Christie has repeatedly said, we don’t want to wake up on November 3 regretting the one thing we didn’t do. 

If you’re in CD-12, or know people who vote in CD-12, do the same for Scott Sipprelle.  Send them the link to this ad.

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Little Narrows The Gap To 7% in New Monmouth University Poll

In a poll released this morning by Patrick Murray, Executive Director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, GOP challenger Anna Little has closed the gap in her race to unseat 22 year incumbent Frank Pallone to 7% with a margin of error of +/- 3.9%.   An October 6 poll by Murray had Pallone leading by 12%.

Like his October 6 poll, Murray’s sample assumes a heavy Democratic turnout in the 6th congressional district.  The partisan break down of the respondents in the earlier poll was 53% registered Democrats, 23% Republicans and 24% Independent.  The sample of today’s poll is 51% D, 24% R and 25% “other.”

The registration breakdown of the district is 37% D, 15% R and 48% I.

Murray says Little is leading Pallone in Monmouth County by a margin of 52% to 45%, up from losing 47%-49% on October 6th.  Murray says the difference is partisan.  However, in the Monmouth County portions of the district, Dems are 29% of registered voters, Rs 19% and Independents 51%.

Murray says Little is losing in the Middlesex, Somerset and Union portions of the district by 58% to 37%.  The registration break down in those counties is 44% D, 11% R and 45% I.

Middlesex, Union and Somerset comprise 51% of the voters in the district, Monmouth 49%.  In last year’s general election Governor Christie won the district by 8% with Monmouth County accounting for 52% of the turnout.

If Little turns out Monmouth County the way Christie did, and if 35% or more of Independents show up to vote, Little wins. Murray says Little leads Pallone among I’s by 58% to 37% compared to 51% to 38% three weeks ago.

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Wayne’s World

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Teachers Unions Gone Wild: Parts One and Two

James O’Keefe, the citizen journalist who took down ACORN with his undercover videos has released two explosive videos that take aim at the NJEA.

See for yourself:

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Union Contributions To Sean Byrnes’ Campaigns (So Far)

Total amount received from unions in 2007, 2009 and 2010:  $185,800

2007 Contributions (both his name and Middletown Democrats who wheeled it to him):

From his campaign in 2009 from his account and the Monmouth Democrats who funded his campaign with $177,000

2010

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Serious Signs Of Weakness For Pallone in Middlesex County

Senator Barbara Buono is on Blue Jersey and The Daily Kos (with links to MMM, my advertisers thank you Senator) pleading with Democrats to support and volunteer for Frank Pallone.

Joe Vas , John Lynch and Jim McGreevey were not available.

With one week to go, who would you rather have in your corner?  Chris Christie or Barbara Buono?

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Governor Chris Christie on Anna Little

ADVERTISEMENT. GRAB THE LINK AND EMAIL IT TO CD-6 VOTERS

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What’s On Phoney Palloney’s Mind Today?

Frank Pallone Jr. Asking @MLB World Series teams to ban chewing tobacco. It hurts more than players when so many young ppl watch & are influenced by players.

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More Evidence That The Neptune Nudniks Are Irrelevant

Need more evidence that the Asbury Park Press’s election coverage is irrelevant?  Go to CNN’s My elections page enter your your zip code and see which site is most prominently featured in their news feed.

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