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Murray re-crunches his numbers. Pallone’s lead slips to 9%

Patrick Murray, the Executive Director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, told MoreMonmouthMusings that he re-ran the numbers of his October 5 poll using the assumptions we used in analysing his numbers.

Murray said,”your assumptions are as good as mine, and this is a very volatile electorate.”

Based on his revised analysis, Murray says that Frank Pallone leads Anna Little in NJ-6 by 51%-42%, a 9 point margin.  That’s 3 points closer than his original analysis and 24 points closer than the All Phor Pallone newspaper’s analysis of the poll.

Murray also said that the list his used from Aristotle Inc. has approximately half of all registered voters in CD-6 as “likely voters” based on a 2 or the last four election vote as the standard.  That makes a lot more sense than to 60,053 two of four number that was reported to MMM from the GOP’s records of voting history.

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Posted: October 7th, 2010 | Author: | Filed under: Anna Little, Monmouth University Poll, Pallone | Tags: , , , , | 7 Comments »

7 Comments on “Murray re-crunches his numbers. Pallone’s lead slips to 9%”

  1. Russ said at 1:33 pm on October 7th, 2010:

    Priceless.

  2. Tom said at 2:09 pm on October 7th, 2010:

    I’m still calling shenanigans on this poll. If anyone wants Pallone for a 12th term, I have a bridge for sale you might be interested in.

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  4. Christopher said at 7:00 pm on October 7th, 2010:

    I see the Asbury Park Press changed the incredibly inaccurate headline in today’s paper from

    “Pallone leads Little 2 to 1” to now “Poll: Pallone leads Little” on their website page.

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  6. Carolee Adams said at 10:29 am on October 8th, 2010:

    Plaudits for great investigative journalism and digging deeper!

  7. MoreMonmouthMusings » Blog Archive » Did Christie’s Popularity Plunge 11 Points in One Week? said at 6:08 pm on April 19th, 2012:

    […] MMM concluded, using Monmouth’s data, that Pallone’s lead should 9%.  Murray agreed, “your turnout assumptions are as good as mine,” he said.  Things got funky when the Little campaign issued a press release announcing that Murray […]