Al Gore Coming To Monmouth County

Former Vice President Al Gore is coming to Monmouth County to support Democrat candidates up and down the ballot, according to an announcement of the Monmouth Dems’ website.

Gore is scheduled to appear at the Ocean Township Community Gym on Sunday, October 15 from 3 P.M till 5 P.M.

When last we heard of the inventor of the Internet and Global Warming campaigning in Monmouth County, he was embroiled in the “Crazed Sex Poodle” scandal.  Six years before NBC leaked the Access Hollywood tapes featuring Donald Trump and Billy Bush joking about grabbing pussies, Portland Oregon massage therapist Molly Hagerty accused Gore of  groping her and painfully squeezing her nipples over her clothes after she declined to rub his adductor magnus. Read the rest of this entry »

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What if Menendez resigns?

Senator Bob Menendez, left, and Congressman Frank Pallone, making like chimpmunks at the 2012 Belmar St. Patrick’s parade. Photo credit Charles Measley

First of all, Senator Bob Menendez might not even be indicted.  Leaks out of the Justice Department have been notoriously unreliable since Chris Christie resigned as U.S. Attorney in 2008.

If Menendez is indicted, he probably will not resign. In his press conference this evening, the Senator defiantly insisted on the “appropriateness and lawfulness” of his relationship with Dr. Salomon Melgen, the Florida ophthalmologist who is Menendez’s friend and benefactor. He declared that he is not going anywhere.

If, as CNN speculates, Menendez is charged with corruption this month, it could be Halloween before he goes to trial. Former Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell was indicted in January of 2014.  His trial didn’t start until late July and didn’t end to early September.   Unless Menendez makes a deal to avoid prosecution that includes his resignation, there is not likely to be a Special Election to fill the Senate seat until next year….2016, the year of the next presidential election.

If Chris Christie is still Governor in 2016 and Menendez’s seat becomes vacant, he will get to choose the next Senator and set the date a special election.   There could be a mid-year Special Election or the Special Election could be on the same day as the presidential election.  There’s no way to know now what is likely to happen.

Still, the prospect of a Senatorial vacancy stirs speculation and the phone lines among both Democrats and Republicans have been burning this afternoon since the news of the possible prosecution broke.

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Holt Bolts

Congressman Rush Holt announced this afternoon that h.e will not seek a 9th term in the House of Representatives.   In a statement posted on facebook, the rocket scientist/Jeopardy champion said it was a honor to serve and that there are no hidden motives in his decision to retire. “For a variety of reasons, personal and professional, all of them positive and optimistic, the end of this year seems to me to be the right time to step aside and ask the voters to select the next representative.”

Holt couldn’t debate healthcare with Rhoda Chodosh.  He certainly doesn’t want to debate Dr. Alieta Eck this fall.

Holt was a candidate for U.S. Senate for the Democratic nomination in the Special Election to replace the late Senator Frank Lautenberg last summer, losing then Newark Mayor Cory Booker, the winner of the nomination and the seat, and Congressman Frank Pallone.

Democrats are lining up to compete for the nomination to replace Holt in the 12 district which includes parts of Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset and Union Counties and is considered a safe Democratic district by most political experts.

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Eck Preparing To Challenge Holt In CD 12

Dr. Alieta Eck

Dr. Alieta Eck is laying the groundwork to run against 12 District Congressman Rush Holt.  She expects to make a formal announcement of her candidacy after the first of the year.  She was a candidate in the Special Senate Primary to replace the late Senator Frank Lautenberg this summer, losing to former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan.  Lonegan went on to lose to then Newark Mayor Cory Booker by 11%.

Eck told MMM this afternoon that she is setting up meetings with the Republican County Chairs of the distirct (Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset and Union) and the National Republian Congressional Committee. She hopes to avoid having to defend her nominating petitions come April.  She also hopes to be unopposed for the GOP nomination.  Eck said she is being advised by GOP consultant David Millner and former Congressman Mike Pappas.  Holt unseated Pappas in 1998.

[Aside: NRCC is selling Bush/Cheney 00 tee shirts for $25 if you’re looking for stocking stuffers] (sarcasm off)

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A map that favors Pallone?

 The Special Senate Primaries are today.

Turnout is always low in primaries, normally held on the first Tuesday in June.  In the last competitive Democratic Senate primary, 2008 when Congressman Rob Andrews challenged incumbent Senator Frank Lautenberg because he was too old, approximately 325,000 New Jersey Democrats voted.  About 159,000 Republicans voted in the 2008 Senate primary between former Congressman Richard Zimmer and State Senator Joseph Pennacchio.

Voter turnout was always expected to be low for today’s primaries being held on the second Tuesday in August.   The polls indicate that Newark Mayor Cory Booker will easily win the Democratic primary and that former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan is essentially unopposed in the Republican primary. But no one has a historical model by which to predict voter turnout on the second Tuesday in August.

That’s why Congressman Frank Pallone has been running hard like he doesn’t believe, or care about the polls.  Pallone told MSNBC last week that the turnout will be very low, that the polls don’t mean very much at this point, and that he has a strong field operation to get his supporters to the polls.

In the last day of the primary campaign, Booker had Eva Longoria on his bus, Congressman Rush Holt went on The Colbert Report, Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver picked up the last minute endorsement of the Woman Political Caucus of NJ, and Pallone rented a fleet of vans to take voters to the polls.

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Quinnipiac Poll: “Unless the sky falls, Booker can start looking for a Washington apartment”

Former Monmouth County Democratic Chairman Vic Scudiery and Newark Mayor Cory Booker

Newark Mayor Cory Booker will be New Jersey’s next U.S. Senator if the results of the Quinnipiac poll of likely voters released this morning hold true through October 16.

Booker is leading Congressman Frank Pallone by 54%-17% in the August 13 Democratic primary with Congressman Rush Holt garnering support from 15% of the respondents and Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver with 5%.  65% of Democratic voters say their choice is firm.  8% are undecided.

In the Republican primary, former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan leads Dr. Alieta Eck 74%-10%.

In the October 16 special election, Booker is leading Lonegan 54%-29% among registered voters.

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Democratic Senatorial Debate

The Democratic candidates for the nomination to replace the late U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg will debate tonight at 7:30 in the Dumont Television Center at Montclair State University.

The candidates are Newark Mayor Cory Booker, Speaker Sheila Oliver, Congressman Frank Pallone and Congressman Rush Holt.

The primary election is one week from tomorrow, August 13. The winner of the Democratic Primary will face off against the Republican nominee to be selected in the Republican primary also on the 13th, either former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan or Dr. Alieta Eck.

You can watch the Democratic debate here:

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Lonengan and Eck Debate Debates

With less than three weeks to go until the Special Senate Primary on August 13, the GOP hopefuls are debating debates.

Yesterday, Dr. Alieta Eck’s campaign Tom Roberts put out a statement with the headline Lonegan Refuses To Debate.

(Somerset, NJ) – Today, Eck for Senate learned that Steve Lonegan has refused a debate organized by the League of Women Voters of New Jersey, which would have matched him against Dr. Alieta Eck on Saturday, July 27th.

“That Steve Lonegan doesn’t want to debate Dr. Eck should probably come as no surprise. Mr. Lonegan has run for office many times and can identify some problems facing Americans, but without solutions he would just join the ranks of those already in DC who are watching our nation’s economic decline. In contrast, Dr. Eck has outlined proven, workable solutions to provide health care and reduce spending. The contrast in a debate would not have been favorable for Mr. Lonegan. We still welcome any future opportunity to debate,” according to Campaign Manager Thomas Roberts.

That sounded like a sound political strategy on Lonegan’s part to me, given that Eck had only 9% name recognition and support from only 5% of registered voters in the last Quinnipiac poll.  For the last week or so, Lonegan has been ignoring Eck and running a general election type campaign, focusing on Newark Mayor Cory Booker and this week, the mad scientist, “millions will die if we don’t tax carbon and make energy completely unaffordable,” Congressman Rush Holt.

But I’m not Lonegan’s strategist.

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Booker Opens Monmouth County Campaign Office

Newark Mayor Cory Booker, the runaway front runner for the Democratic nomination to replace the late U.S. Senator Frank Launtenberg, opened a campaign office in Victor Scudiery’s Airport Plaza in Hazlet today.

Booker has a commanding lead against 49% to 12% lead over Congressman Frank Pallone in the Monmouth University Poll of likely voters released earlier this week. Congressman Rush Holt gets 8% in the Monmouth Poll and Assembly Speaker Shelia Oliver has support of 3% of the likely voters.  28% are undecided.  Pollster Patrick Murray classified Booker’s lead as “impregnable.”

If Booker prevails in the August 13 primary, he will face off against the winner of the Republican primary on the same day in a special election to be held on October 16.  Former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan is the heavy favorite to win the Republican primary over political novice, Dr. Alieta Eck of Piscataway.

Booker’s Hazlet office is having a grand opening celebration this evening from 6-9.  The office will be open and staffed from 9-9 daily through the primary.

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Q Poll: Booker winning primary and election. Lonegan has large lead in GOP primary

The good news for Congressman Frank Pallone is that he is no longer running last in the independent polls for the Democratic nomination to replace the late Senator Frank Lautenberg in Washington.  The bad news; he’s losing to Newark Mayor Cory Booker by 42 points in the Quinnipiac Poll released this morning.

Quinnipiac surveyed 1068 registered New Jersey voters from July 2-7.   The did not survey likely voters.

Booker leads the Democratic field with 52%.  Pallone has 10%, Congressman Rush Holt 8%, and Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver has 3%.

In the Republican primary, former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan leads Dr. Alieta Eck 62%-5% is 28% undecided.

Dr. Eck is virtually unknown, with 91% saying they haven’t heard enough about her to form an opinion.

In the October 16 special election, Booker is leading Lonegan 53%-30%.

Pallone beat Lonegan 38%-34%. Holt beats Lonegan 37%-36%.  Lonegan beats Oliver 37%-35%.

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