Assemblywoman Amy Handlin (R-13) will be the first guest tomorrow at 5PM on the LaRossa And Gallagher: Real Jersey Guys On The Radio Show on WIFIAM1460 on your radio dial and here on the Internet.
Handlin and her 13th district Assembly running mate Declan O’Scanlon are sponsors of the New Jersey “Right to Work Act” which prohibits payroll deductions for union dues and makes union membership voluntary.
Imagine getting your dream job that pays well, offers generous benefits and is located a few miles from your home.
But there’s a condition: You must pay Harold Camping $75 every month to help spread the word about his next Doomsday prediction.
That’s probably not a problem for those who believed Judgment Day was May 21 and are now convinced it’s coming Oct. 21, but most would object to an employer telling us what we should believe and how we should spend our money.
In America, people are free to believe whatever they want and support their beliefs however they choose.
In New Jersey, and many other states, however, workers are forced to join unions and fund their political priorities, regardless of their wishes.
I support workers’ right to organize, but that should be a personal choice. Those who agree withtheir union representatives have every right to join, but others should have the freedom to work without subsidizing and endorsing a group they disagree with.
Just last week Handlin announced that she is drafting legislation to prohibit voluntary retirees who are collecting a pension from simultaneously collecting unemployment benefits.
Tune in for what promises to be an informative half hour. Those who have questioned Handlin’s conservative ethos should especially call in and learn something.
Call in with questions and comments to 609-447-0237.
Patrick Murray, the founding director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute will be our guest for the second half hour of the show. Murray’s media profile has risen in recent months as increasingly he has become a “go to” expert for both local and national new outlets for commentary on New Jersey government and politics. We are pleased to have him on the show.
When Murray asked what I want to talk about I said, “whatever is current. We can talk about how the debt ceiling dealings in Washington will impact New Jersey politics, we can talk about Congressional Redistricting, and the upcoming legislative races.” We’re not limited to those topics, and as always, your calls are welcome and encouraged.
Listen live between 5PM and 6PM here and call in to 609-447-0237.
If you miss the show, a recording will be posted here on MMM, hopefully by 9PM.
Monmouth University’s Patrick Murray has a new poll out this morning that indicates that while Governor Chris Christie’s approval numbers are steady at 47%, the percentage of New Jersey residents who disapprove of job the governor is doing has jumped from 40% in February to 49% today.
Murray noted that the poll was conducted before the latest state revenue projections were released. MMM doubts the revenue numbers would have a postive impact on the governor’s numbers. The positive news in the revenue reports of income taxes generated by Wall Street is offset by the lagging sales tax and corporate tax revenue results which point to a weak New Jersey economy.
Murray said that the increase in Christie’s disapproval numbers came from people who previously had no opinion of the governor’s performance. In February 12% of the respondents did not express an opinion of Christie’s performance compared to 5% in the poll released today.
Christie support among Republicans slipped from 80% in February to 75% today. Among Independents Christie’s approval numbers rose from 49% to 53%. 72% of Democrats disapprove of Christie’s performance in today’s poll vs 61% in February.
Only 46% of New Jersey residents report having read or heard anything about the Christie’s Town Hall meetings.
New Jersey will have a legislature controlled by the Democratic party for another ten years, according to Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray.
In a column posted on Politickernjand on his own blog Murray dissects the tea leaves of that Alan Rosenthal, the tie breaking 11th member of redistricting commission, revealed in his public statements about the standards that will be used to determine the new legislative map. Murray concludes that the Rosenthal approved map will result in 22 “safe” Democratic districts and 18 “safe” Republican districts.
Murray says that Rosenthal values “continuity of representation” ….that incumbents should be drawn into districts where the majority of voters are already represented by them…over “competitiveness” and that as a result the new map will have a “deminis” impact on the status quo.
Murray also implied that the Democrats have outmaneuvered the Republican in there redistricting preparation. He says Democrats organized themselves to negotiate with the 11th members of the commission whereas the Republicans organized themselves to challenge the new map in court, where they will likely lose.
Murray’s margin of error is +/- 100% of Rosenthal’s consistency with his historical body of work.
The New Jersey Legislative Reapportionment Commission has until April 3rd to produce a new map of legislative districts. Candidates for State Senate and Assembly from the major parties will have to submit their nominating petitions during the week of April 11th, unless there is legislation that changes the date of the petition submission and/or the primary.
Patrick Murray of the Monmouth University Polling Institute has produced two maps for columns he has written at Politickernj. Both his “Constitutional” map, which Murray concedes is only almost constitutional as conflicting standards make a purely constitutional map impossible, and his “Competitive” map would create conflicts among Monmouth County incumbent legislators based upon their residency.
Murray’s “constitutional map” (town list here) would put Assemblymen Declan O’Scanlon (Little Silver) and Dave Rible in the 11th district, based upon their respective residencies, and move Assemblywoman Mary Pat Angelini (Ocean Township) into the 9th where there would be a seat available as Murray’s constitutional map moves Assembly incumbents Brain Rumpf and Diane Grove into the 2nd district.
Senators Jennifer Beck and Joe Kyrillos would be competing for the Senate seat in the 13th. Robert Singer would become the incumbent Senator in the 12th district (Beck’s seat) and there would be an Assembly vacancy in 12. The 12th vacancy would presumably be filled by a resident of Colts Neck, Farmingdale, Howell, Jackson or Lakewood. Lakewood would be the largest town in the district by population.
Murray’s “competitive” map (town list), like his “constitutional” map also puts Red Bank and Middletown in the 13th district, pitting Beck and Kyrillos against each other. The competitive map moves Old Bridge out of the 13th into a newly constituted 40th district comprised of Middlesex County towns. This moves Sam Thomspon (Old Bridge) into a more competitive district. Declan O’Scanlon (Little Silver) would be an incumbent in the new 13th.
Caroline Casagrande (Colts Neck) in the only incumbent in Murray’s competitive 12th. Casagrande could step up and seek the Senate seat, creating two Assembly vacancies. Look for Freeholder Director Rob Clifton (Matawan) to seek a seat in the legislature in this scenario. Freeholder Lillian Burry (Colts Neck) could be a contender too. On the Democratic side, Marlboro Mayor Jon Hornick would be a likely contender for a vacant seat. A Casagrande vs. Hornick battle for Senate could be a classic race.
All incumbents are safe in Murray’s competitive 11th.
One source close to the redistricting process told me that Murray’s maps are a “nice rainy day read,” and that neither the Democrats or Republicans proposed maps are close to his scenarios. I guess that makes this piece a nice rainy day read too.
There will be a great deal of uncertainty and speculation until the actual new map is released. And there is uncertain information about how incumbent conflicts based upon residency would be handled. One GOP leader told me that “he thought” that someone could run for a seat in a district that they don’t live in, but would have to move into the district within one year if they won. Another official said there in no residency requirement in the State Constitution and that statutes governing residency could be easily changed after the new map is released.
Whatever happens there will be a lot of moving and shaking during the first couple of weeks in April, and a lot of hair pulling until then.
The gap that Scott Sipprelle needs to close in order to return Rush Holt’s career to plasma has widened from 5% to 8% in the last two weeks, according to a Monmouth University Poll released this afternoon.
Holt has widened his support in Middlesex County to 10%, 52%-42% vs a 4 point margin, 50%-46% in the earlier poll. Sipprelle still leads among Independents in the district, but only buy 11% vs 15% two weeks ago.
“While he’s not out of the woods yet, Rush Holt appears to be solidify his standing among voters in this district,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.
That’s a puzzling conclusion from Murray, given that Holt’s support has remained constant at 51% in the two polls Monmouth conducted. “Undecided and other” have doubled as a percentage of respondents in the current poll, from 3% to 6%. Among Independents, “undecided and other” has increased from 7% to 9%. Rather than Holt solidifying his support, it would appear that Holt’s negative ads have been taking on toll on Sipprelle’s support and/or that Scott has failed to give Independents a reason to come out for him over the last two weeks.
The most surprising number both of Murray’s NJ-12 polls is Sipprelle’s favorability rating. In the October 13th poll, 41% of the respondents did not know enough about Scott to form a favorable or unfavorable opinion, including 44% of Independents and 24% of Republicans. In today’s poll, the “no opinion” number dropped only 2 points to 39%, including 42% of I’s and 24% of R’s. This is particularly surprising given Sipprelle’s radio and TV advertising throughout the summer and fall.
Just as Holt is “not out of the woods,” Scott has not been knocked out and can still win this race, though time is running short. Fast, and expensive adjustments are necessary for him to win.
Scott needs to “let it hang out” and let the Independent voters know the more human side of himself. Elections are not won on debating points. To a large extent they are won on likeability. Scott has been argumentative and a bit strident since the second debate. He’s argued with Holt’s commercials and he’s argued with the Asbury Park Press. He’s been defending himself instead of convincing the voters he’s going to fight for them. The “I don’t know and I don’t care” clip from the second debate that Holt is using on TV hurts. It shows a side of Scott that those who challenged him back in convention season saw a great deal of, but that the electorate does not need to see in the closing days of the campaign. A feel good, emotion provoking TV spot with his family and voters could turn the tide. It would have to be written, produced and booked tomorrow, but Scott has the resources to make that happen.
Focus on increasing the turnout in Monmouth County where Scott has a 60%-35% lead, according to Murray. Let Holt have Trenton and the rest of Mercer. Any resources spent there are a waste at best and possibly counterproductive in the last four days of the campaign. Close the gap with Middlesex Independents with the new ad. Play it during NFL games if there are spots available.
NJ-06 is Tight. Adjusted for 2004, it is a Nail Biter
Written by Noah Rothman on October 26, 2010, 4:43 PM
A Monmouth University poll released today shows that the race in New Jersey’s 6th district between Rep. Frank Pallone and the Republican candidate, Anna Little, has tightened significantly.
In the poll, Pallone leads Little with 52 to 45 percentage points. A Monmouth University poll from October 6th had Little only taking 33 percent to Pallone’s 58 percent of the vote. This 7-point margin in a district that has returned Pallone by no less than 67 percent of the vote in the last three cycles means this will be a race to watch on election night.
The poll, however, could underestimate Little’s performance. The Monmouth University poll’s sample was 40 percent Democrats, 22 percent Republicans and 38 percent Independents. 40 percent Democrat is probably close to correct; exit polls from 2004, 2006 and 2008 placed the Democratic share of the vote at 39, 41 and 40 percent for each respective year. In 2004 the Republican sample was 31 percent and the independent sample was 30 percent. In 2006 the Republican sample was 28 percent (a depressed year for Republicans nation wide, but especially dower in the North East) and the independent Sample was 31 percent. In 2008 the Republican sample was 33 percent and the independent sample was 38 percent.
It is fairly dubious assertion that this year will yield fewer Republicans at the polls than even 2006. It is even more suspicious that 38 percent of the Monmouth University poll’s sample is 38 percent; this independent sample outperforms their best year by 7 points. For a particularly good Republican year, when both the GOP and Democratic bases were engaged, 2004 is a decent place to start.
If you adjust the sample of 647 likely voters (257 Democrats, 141 Republican and 249 Independents) to reflect the exit polls from 2004, (253 Democrats, 201 Republicans and 194 Independents) then the race becomes 51 to 49 percent for Pallone. This is a minor adjustment from Monmouth University’s findings for Pallone but a major boost for Little. It also puts this race within the margin of error for most pollsters. This race could be a lot closer than Monmouth University’s polls show.
The Asbury Park Press has a front page piece about the Monmouth University Poll on CD-6. There is even a positive headline for Anna Little, Poll: Little closing in on Pallone in 6th District race. Good for the Nudniks, they easily could have written, Little still trailing Pallone.
They’re probably trying to get back into the CNN news feed.
Actually the credit should go to Patrick Murray. The Nudnik article was basically a rewrite of his press release for the poll.
With this line, Frank Pallone will need to bet on a strong turnout in more Democratic areas of this district to fend off this challenge,” Murray acknowledged that the incumbent is not winning this race. The poll predicts a strong Democratic turnout in its sample. Such a turnout can not be counted on.
There is no question this race will be determined on turnout. As my friends at InTheLobby write today, Independents are siding with Republicans nationally by 14%. In NJ-6, Little leads Pallone by 21% among Independents, according to Murray. Up from 14% three weeks ago. The increase in support among Independents correlates with Little’s increased name recognition. Three weeks ago, 45% of the voters had no opinion of her. Now that number is down to a still very high 31%.
Frank Pallone is on the verge of losing to a relative unknown. As Little becomes more known, her support swells. She’s easy to vote for, despite Pallone and Barbara Buono trying to paint her as extreme and out of the mainstream.
Murray credits the “Anna’s Army” ground game, lead by “General” Russ Cote, as the reason that Little has closed the gap so significantly in three weeks. There is no question that The Bayshore Tea Party’s passionate and tireless troops continue change the political landscape of Central Jersey. If Anna wins, they will have made that unpredictable result happen.
However, also contributing to Anna’s surge is Governor Christie’s personal involvement in the campaign, and Frank Pallone’s own TV ads. Pallone’s “positive” ad emphasises how out of touch he is with the district. In my own unscientific poll of 5 CD-6 voters, 80% said they were less likely to vote for Pallone after seeing the ad. 20% were undecided. Pallone’s “negative” ad attacking Little is a complete failure. 100% do not believe Little is the extremist Pallone portrays her to be. The ad can’t help but increase her name recognition.
Finally, Diane Gooch’s ad for Voice For My Child , while not mentioning Little, has given Independents an additional reason to vote against Pallone.
Little’s TV advertising will start airing tomorrow. Her direct mail pieces have been going out for the last week. She is poised to win this, but still needs help.
Do what you can to get out the vote for Anna Little in CD-6. Donate, talk to friends and family, email your friends links to her ads. As Governor Christie has repeatedly said, we don’t want to wake up on November 3 regretting the one thing we didn’t do.
If you’re in CD-12, or know people who vote in CD-12, do the same for Scott Sipprelle. Send them the link to this ad.
In a poll released this morning by Patrick Murray, Executive Director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, GOP challenger Anna Little has closed the gap in her race to unseat 22 year incumbent Frank Pallone to 7% with a margin of error of +/- 3.9%. An October 6 poll by Murray had Pallone leading by 12%.
Like his October 6 poll, Murray’s sample assumes a heavy Democratic turnout in the 6th congressional district. The partisan break down of the respondents in the earlier poll was 53% registered Democrats, 23% Republicans and 24% Independent. The sample of today’s poll is 51% D, 24% R and 25% “other.”
The registration breakdown of the district is 37% D, 15% R and 48% I.
Murray says Little is leading Pallone in Monmouth County by a margin of 52% to 45%, up from losing 47%-49% on October 6th. Murray says the difference is partisan. However, in the Monmouth County portions of the district, Dems are 29% of registered voters, Rs 19% and Independents 51%.
Murray says Little is losing in the Middlesex, Somerset and Union portions of the district by 58% to 37%. The registration break down in those counties is 44% D, 11% R and 45% I.
Middlesex, Union and Somerset comprise 51% of the voters in the district, Monmouth 49%. In last year’s general election Governor Christie won the district by 8% with Monmouth County accounting for 52% of the turnout.
If Little turns out Monmouth County the way Christie did, and if 35% or more of Independents show up to vote, Little wins. Murray says Little leads Pallone among I’s by 58% to 37% compared to 51% to 38% three weeks ago.
The political website formerly known as politicsnj.com is reporting that Monmouth University Polling Institute Executive Director Patrick Murray has issued a press released denying that he backed off his polling numbers of October 6th indicating that Frank Pallone is leading Anna Little by 12 points in the CD-6 congressional race.
According to the website, Murray said, ”
“It has come to our attention that the campaign of Anna Little, Republican candidate for Congress in New Jersey’s 6th District, issued a press release claiming that the Monmouth University Poll revised its official poll results for the election in that race,” Murray said in a statement. “This is patently untrue. The poll report we issued on October 6 (http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP…) is the only official number we produced.”
Art’s original criticism of our voter turnout model is a fair one, since no one knows what Nov. 2’s electorate will look like and I responded to that by re-running our numbers using his assumptions and providing that data.
Murray’s re-run numbers resulted in a margin on 9%, a 25% difference from his “official” numbers.
Murray re-ran his numbers, on his own volition, after reading this post criticising his voter sample. MMM called him the following day for clarification on his sample of 2 of 4 voters. Much to my surprise, he already had the new calculations ready when I called.
Murray issued his denial in response to this press release from the Little campaign. Murray is parsing words. He uses the words “official numbers” twice, while failing to acknowledge to the media at large that he did indeed adjust his numbers. No where did the Little camp say “official numbers.” They said he adjusted his numbers, which he did.
Murray needs to be forthright about this, or he risks damaging his already diminished credibility further.
The problem with the so-called math error is that you are using unweighted sample sizes (which pollsters use to estimate error) to back into the horse race numbers, rather than using the weighted adjustments to the subgroups upon which our final numbers are based. You can find those weighted adjustment in our methodology statement (which Art originally did, but Bill didn’t). The difference between what unweighted and weighted “n sizes” is something that every pollster DOES learn in polling school. And since we adhere to principles of full disclosure, we give both the unweighted and weighted information. Unfortunately, it is lack of public knowledge about polling principles that lead many other pollsters to withhold disclosure, so they can avoid uninformed critiques. We at Monmouth believe that all our data should be out there. Art’s original criticism of our voter turnout model is a fair one, since no one knows what Nov. 2’s electorate will look like and I responded to that by re-running our numbers using his assumptions and providing that data. This criticism, however, is just plain wrong.
Editors note: I’m relieved to hear a credible explanation from Patrick. While I will lose no sleep derailing the careers of Frank Pallone, Rush Holt and John D’Amico, MMM means Patrick Murray no harm.
I sat on the math discrepancy story most of the day waiting for Patrick to call. I sought out expert advise that was not available. Next time I’ll wait longer. ~ Art
Assemblywoman Amy Handlin (R-13) will be the first guest tomorrow at 5PM on the LaRossa And Gallagher: Real Jersey Guys On The Radio Show on WIFIAM1460 on your radio dial and here on the Internet.
Patrick Murray, the founding director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute will be our guest for the second half hour of the show. Murray’s media profile has risen in recent months as increasingly he has become a “go to” expert for both local and national new outlets for commentary on New Jersey government and politics. We are pleased to have him on the show.