It’s two days before New Jersey elects a U.S. Senator to replace the late Frank Lautenberg in Washington and Newark Mayor Cory Booker’s lead over former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan has shrunk to 10%, according to a poll released by Monmouth University this morning. Democrat Booker led Republican Lonegan by 13% two weeks ago and by 26% in August.
Polling Director Patrick Murray surveyed 1,393 likely voters who have voted in at least two of the last four general elections between Thursday and Saturday of last week. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.6%.
The poll results are weighted with the assumptions that Democrats will be 38% of the turnout, Independents 34% and Republicans 28%. Monmouth expects that women will be 52% of the turnout. The expected racial demographic of voters is 75% White, 12% Black, 8% Hispanic and 5% Asian/Other.
Democrats favor Booker by a margin of 90%-6%. Independents favor Lonegan, 48%-43% with 6% undecided. Republicans favor Lonegan 86%-11%.
55% of respondents said that Booker’s views on issues are generally in line with most of New Jerseyans. 30% said Booker is out of step with most voters and 15% are not sure. 48% said Booker is more interested in being on the national stage than he is in serving the people of New Jersey. This perception accounts for Booker’s weakened support, according to Murray.
In a column on RollCall yesterday, Washington pundit Stu Rothenberg chastised conservative websites that are excited about Steve Lonegan’s internal poll numbers suggesting his race to replace the late Senator Frank Lautenberg is in single digits.
“Watch the people who matter, not the folks who don’t,” Rothenberg wrote.
In New Jersey, Patrick Murray matters. The Executive Director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, Murray told Capitol Quickies’ Bob Jordon that the debates could be decisive.
If Cory Booker tries to give the impression he’s above all this, he might up end up being on the short end of the debate because that would play into the impression that people are starting to get, which is that Booker is not fully engaged in this campaign and that he’s looking ahead to his national career.’’
Lonegan and Booker debate first this afternoon at 1PM at ABC’s Trenton Bureau. The debate will be live streamed here and broadcast on 6ABC (Philadelphia market) on Sunday, October 6 at 9:30 am and on 7ABC in the New York market at 11am. Noticias Univision 41 will air the debate in Spanish on Friday, October 11 at 11pm.
The second and final debate between Booker and Lonegan will be on Wednesday, October 9 at Rowan University in Glassboro.
“Christie’s level of firm support means the eventual winner is not in question. The only unknown is the final margin of victory,” ~ Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Governor Christie meeting with business owners at McLoone’s Pier House in Long Branch, April 18, 2013. Photo by Art Gallagher
New Jersey’s gubernatorial election is more than a month away and Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray has called the race for Governor Chris Christie.
80% of likely voters say they won’t change their mind on who to vote for on November 5. 60% of Independents, 89% of Republicans and 25% of Democrats say they will vote to give the Republican governor another four years. There is no gender gap. 56% of men and 55% of women say they will vote for Christie.
Buono’s name recognition has improved significantly since the August poll, but as voters get to know her, they are not impressed. 67% have an opinion of Buono, up from 52% in August, but more than half of those opinions are negative. 38% still don’t know enough about Buono to form an opinion.
Despite holding his lead within the margins of error in the Monmouth polls, Booker’s favorability rating has taken a 20 point hit since August. The percentage of those who view Booker favorably dropped 7% while those who view him unfavorably increased by 13%.
Lonegan’s overall favorability rating declined 4%. 35% said they view Lonegan favorably, up from 31% in August. 28% said they viewed Lonegan unfavorably, up 8% since August.
Lonegan’s name recognition has jumped 11% since August when 49% said they had no opinion of him. 38% said they have no opinion of him in today’s survey.
Booker has widened his lead with Independent voters from 2% in August to 6% today. Monmouth Polling Director Patrick Murray said this figure is statistically insignificant.
Lonegan has shored up his support among Republicans a bit. 83% of Republican likely voters say they will vote for Lonegan, up from 79% in August. 14% of Republicans said they would vote for Booker, down from 16% in August.
Lonegan’s strategist and pollster Rick Shaftan says his man is down by only 6%, 48-42. Shaftan thinks Booker’s shallow support in his base will translate into a lower turnout among Democratic voters than Republcans and conservatives. “Maybe I’m undercounting African-Americans who I have at 8% of the turnout,”Shaftan said, “I know others expect more. I do not.” Shaftan said that the African-American vote was 12% of the turnout in last year’s election in New Jersey.
Ed Murray/The Star-Ledger TRENTON — With election day only seven weeks away, Gov. Chris Christie is still enjoying solid approval ratings among New Jerseyans, a new poll indicates. Sixty-one percent of people polled approve of the job Christie is…
Booker responded on social media. He’s a kind politician, not a new kind of politician.
Hmmm. This post might give New Jersey more insight into Booker’s foreign policy philosophy than the Lonegan campaign’s “silly and childish” tweet during a Democratic primary debate. Let’s be kind to terrorists and our foreign enemies. That fits with the Obama/HClinton/Kerry foreign policy of apologizing for America.
Patrick Murray’s poll of likely voters continues to show Booker beating GOP nominee Steve Lonegan by double digits. Today’s 54%-38% Booker lead is nearly identical to the pre-primary 53%-37% lead the Newark Mayor enjoyed in June. In other words, Lonegan has gained no ground by deploying his anti-Obama campaign strategy in the last two months.
But despite his huge victory, the Democratic primary took something of a toll on Booker’s favorability ratings, which have dropped 12 points net since June. Given how easy Congressmen Frank Pallone and Rush Holt went on Booker during the primary, a 12 point drop is significant.
photo via facebook
In order to close the gap and make the Special Senate Election competitive, Lonegan needs to scrap the idea of making the campaign a referendum on President Obama’s policies. We had that referendum last November and Obama won in New Jersey by 18 points. Lonegan has said that Obama’s numbers are going to drop. They have dropped a bit, only 49% of New Jersey likely voters told the Monmouth University poll that they approved of the President, while 43% disapprove. If those numbers suddenly plunge, Lonegan will benefit without trying. If Obama’s approval stays stubbornly positive, as they have through various scandals, Lonegan stands to gain little ground.
50% of those who said they have a favorable opinion of Booker also said they could change their minds. Booker’s favorables are soft. Obama’s have proven to be stubborn.
A Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press Poll released this morning echoed the recent Quinnipiac and Rutgers-Eagleton Polls. Over 70% of New Jersey voters approve of Governor Chris Christie’s performance and over 60% favor his reelection. Christie is trouncing presumptive Democratic gubernatorial nominee Senator Barbara Buono by more than 40 points.
78% of voters haven’t heard enough of Buono to form an opinion about her. Polling Director Patrick Murray said the race is likely to narrow to a 20% gap in favor of Christie and the Democratic challenger becomes better known.
“There is a long history that shows horse race polling has little predictive value this far out from an election. This is especially true when there is a popular incumbent and a largely unknown challenger. The important number here is that 6-in-10 voters support Gov. Christie’s re-election,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “This suggests that the race should close in on a 20 point margin as the campaign progresses and Buono becomes better known. The question remains whether the challenger can peel off Christie supporters to shrink that gap even more.”
Murray says that jobs, property taxes, schools, storm recovery and gun control are very important issues to the New Jersey electorate. Minimum wage is an important issue with most voters supporting an increase. However, Christie’s conditional veto of a minimum wage increase has not hurt his support with most voters.
According to Murray’s analysis, Buono has the potential to motivate 7% of the electorate to switch from voting for Christie to voting for her. If she gets all of them, Christie still wins with over 50% of the vote.
Monmouth polling staff attempted to identify voters who could potentially be motivated to switch support from the incumbent because of this issue. This group includes voters who: feel Gov. Christie deserves re-election, are dissatisfied with his veto, say they will vote to support a minimum wage ballot measure, and report that the issue is very important to their vote for governor. Analysis shows that this group comprises about 7% of the total electorate. Hypothetically, if Sen. Buono were able to convince all of these voters to abandon their support for Christie, his re-election support would remain above the 50% mark.
This morning, The Star Ledger announced that they are laying off 34 people, including 10% of the newsroom.
In a poll published on January 8, Monmouth University’s Patrick Murray said that since 2005 newspapers as the primary source of news has decline from 48% to 27% among New Jerseyans. The shift has favored the interent where 28% now get their news, up from 6% in 2005. Television as a news source has also declined since 05, according to Murray. 48% got most of their news from TV in 05. Now 34%, still the highest percentage, are informed by television.
There is not much good news for the industry looking forward, according to Murray’s report. 45% of 18-34 year olds now look to the net as their primary news source, up from 33% in 2009.
Monmouth GOP Headquarters. Who's missing? Click on photo for full view
Anna Little’s congressional campaign has failed to respond to the Federal Election Commission’s demands for accurate information about the campaign’s finances.
As reported by MMM on September 12, the FEC wrote Little’s husband and campaign treasurer, Rob Little, three separate letters in late August regarding serious deficiencies in the campaign’s April 2012 quarterly report, the 12 day pre-primary report, and the June 2012 quarterly report. The April and pre-parimary reports lacked donor information. The July report, which reported a negative cash balance of over $11,000, did not jibe with the previous two reports. The FEC demanded that all of the reports be ammended and that they be filed electronically. The deadline for the April amendment was September 28. The pre-primary report amendment was due on October 1 and the July amendment was due yesterday. None of the amendments are posted in the FEC website.
The FEC’s letters stated in bold print that requests for extensions would not be considered and that failure to comply could result in audits and enforcement action.
The FEC analysts who wrote to Little referred MMM to the press office. The press office spokewoman told MMM that reports that are filed electronically are posted to the commission’s website “almost immediately.” Reports that are submitted via paper are posted “within 48 hours.” The spokeswoman twice suggested that MMM contact the campaign. “It will be interesting to hear what they have to say,” she said.
Rob Little told MMM that he received the letters and referred them to the campaign’s compliance officer. Little declined to give the name of the compliance officer, stating, “you’re going to twist whatever I say.”
Speaking of twisted….
The Little campaign yesterday emailed a fundraising appeal declaring that her race against Congressman Frank Pallone is winnable based on Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press polling data.
The email, signed by “Anna,” cited Monmouth University Polling Director Patrick Murray’s statewide poll released last week that measured the favorability ratings to potential Democratic gubernatorial challengers to Governor Chris Christie in 2013. Pallone scored a statewide favorability rating of 16% statewide (17% among Republicans), 9% unfavorable and 75% had no opinion. Little compared that poll to a October 2010 Monmouth survey of the old 6th congressional district that indicated Pallone was beating Little in that race by 53% to 41%.
Little’s email told her prospective donors:
THE RACE IS WINABLE
These polling numbers mean that the number of Registered voters that view Pallone as ‘favorable’ have droped 31% since we last sqaured (sic)off against him in 2010.
These polling results mean that we have 34 days to engage with the 75% of voters who are undecided and help them form an opinion about the self proclaimed author of Obamacare before they head to the polls on Nov. 6th
These polling results mean that victory in the 6th district will be awarded to the campaign that reaches that 75% first!
As some national polls show President Obama widening his lead in his race for another term, much has been made about the sampling weights that pollsters use. Analysts on the left insists the polls are accurate. nalysts on the right say the polls are inaccurately favoring Obama by assuming his supporters will come out on election day in the same numbers as they did in 2008.
But its not just weighting that reveals a pollster’s bias. The way the question is asked also makes a difference.
In a Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press poll about the 2013 New Jersey gubernatorial race released this morning, pollster Patrick Murray asked if voters were “bothered” with how Governor Chris Christie interacts with his critics and detractors.
Thinking about Chris Christie’s style and not his policies, does the way he speaks to or about people who disagree with him bother you personally or not bother you? [If BOTHER: Is that a lot or just a little?]
63% of respondents said they weren’t bothered by Christie’s style. 23% said they were bothered a LOT and 11% said they were bothered a LITTLE. Given the way Murray asked the question, one could conclude that 74% of New Jersey voters are indifferent about Christie’s style.
In his narrative of the poll, which sets the tone for how much of the lazy lefty media covers it, Murray highlights his spin on Christie’s style.
“NEW JERSEY ON CHRISTIE’S STYLE: ‘MEH!’ ” is Murray’s headline. His opening sentence:
Governor Chris Christie’s job approval rating has ticked up a few points in the latest Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press Polland few New Jerseyans are particularly bothered by the way he deals with people who disagree with him.
Notice the use of the word few.
Christie’s numbers are the highest they ever been in a Monmouth poll. 55% of registered voters approve of the governor’s performance. 36% do not approve.
Yet Murray spins the results to read that a few people like him better and a few people are bothered about how he talks to people who don’t agree with him. The few who are bothered take top billing over the fact disclosed but not reported that Christie’s numbers are better than ever in Murray’s poll.
To their credit, PolitickerNJ cut through Murray’s spin and covers the poll results very well. They reported the real news of the poll results; New Jersey’s sagging economy is not hurting Christie’s popularity with voters and that of potential Democratic challengers in 2013, only Newark Mayor Cory Booker and former acting Governor Richard Codey have sufficient name recognition to be considered credible candidates for governor next year.
What if instead of asking if voters were bothered by Christie’s style, Murray asked if they liked his style? If Murray had done that, the headline would be:
75% White, 12% Black, 8% Hispanic and 5% Asian/Other.
