Asm. Jon Bramnick has shocked the N.J. political world by declining to run for U.S. Senate in 2014, Save Jerseyans, leaving the field wide open…
His statement:
“After thoroughly considering the opportunity to run for United States Senate in 2014, I have decided to remain focused on my role as Assembly Republican Leader. I appreciate the support and enthusiasm offered to me by countless party leaders, elected officials, and devoted volunteers across New Jersey. I look forward to continuing to work with Governor Christie and the dedicated members of the Assembly Republican caucus to advocate for the hardworking taxpayers of our state. “
Happy New Year MMM readers! 2014 has been a great year so far!
Here’s what we expect in the year ahead.
Senator Cory Booker will narrowly defeat Assembly Minority Leader Jon Bramnick in the U.S. Senate election. Bramnick will be the instant front runner for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in the 2016 special election.
Marlboro Mayor Jonathan Hornik will be a speaker at numerous Democratic Clubs throughout New Jersey and will establish himself as a major fundraiser for Democratic candidates on the municipal and county levels. Hornik will proclaim that the only thing he is running for is reelection as Marlboro’s mayor in 2015.
The 11 incumbent New Jersey Congressmen running for reelection will win. The Republican nominee in the third congressional district seat currently held by Congressman Jon Runyon, who is not seeking a third term, will be elected. Tommy DeSeno will write a column complaining about gerrymandered districts.
Senate President Steve Sweeney will keep picking on Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean, Jr.
Governor Chris Christie will have more public appearances in Iowa, South Carolina, Texas and Florida, combined, than he will have Town Hall Meetings in New Jersey.
Anna Little will seek the Republican nomination for Congress in the 6th district, hoping for a third shot at Congressman Frank Pallone. Little will lose at the Monmouth and Middlesex nominating conventions and wage a primary. The Bayshore Tea Party Group will sit out the 6th district primary, citing their commitment to Dr. Alieta Eck’s campaign in the 12th district. Eck will be unopposed for the 12th district nomination to take on Congressman Rush Holt.
Congressman Frank J. Pallone, Jr. Since losing the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate to Cory Booker in a special primary, New Jersey’s longest serving Democratic Member of Congress has gone off the rails with bizarre rants is defense of ObamaCare. As the healthcare plan proves to be increasingly unworkable and unpopular, Pallone’s credibility will tank.
Pallone’s once formidable campaign war chest of roughly $4 million is down to $1.2 million after the special primary, as of the September 30th FEC reports. That $1.2 million is not as high as it might seem, as the congressman historically burns through about $1 million per year in “campaign” expenses during years when he doesn’t have to face the voters. Given that his seat is considered “safe,” he’ll have a tough time competing for campaign dollars with candidates who are in districts considered “competitive.”
There is a talk of an Asian-American from Middlesex County who is willing to spend $1 million of his own money to unseat Pallone. It will take a guy like that to exploit Pallone’s obvious vulnerability.
Tom Kean Jr. Kean overplayed the best hand dealt to New Jersey Republicans since Jim Florio’s toilet paper tax, Chris Christie’s overwhelming popularity, and lost. He picked a fight with Senate President Steve Sweeney and thought he knew better than Christie’s strategists how the Republican legislative campaign should be waged. His only winning option was to defeat Sweeney’s reelection bid and pick up at least another two state Senate seats. He failed on all counts, not winning even one Senate seat.
U.S. Sens. Cory Booker and Rand Paul had a Festivus exchange yesterday that could one day lead to drug policy and sentencing reforms. It began with Paul’s “airing of the grievances,” a tradition that is part of Festivus, the fictional Dec. 23 holiday…
Dr. Alieta Eck is laying the groundwork to run against 12 District Congressman Rush Holt. She expects to make a formal announcement of her candidacy after the first of the year. She was a candidate in the Special Senate Primary to replace the late Senator Frank Lautenberg this summer, losing to former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan. Lonegan went on to lose to then Newark Mayor Cory Booker by 11%.
Eck told MMM this afternoon that she is setting up meetings with the Republican County Chairs of the distirct (Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset and Union) and the National Republian Congressional Committee. She hopes to avoid having to defend her nominating petitions come April. She also hopes to be unopposed for the GOP nomination. Eck said she is being advised by GOP consultant David Millner and former Congressman Mike Pappas. Holt unseated Pappas in 1998.
It’s not that Booker is invincible, as was widely thought prior to the Special Senate Election last October. He is beatable. Steve Lonegan exposed the fallacies of the Booker myth and Patrick Murray documented that Booker’s support is shallow. Had Washington Republicans not followed Senator Ted Cruz’s lead to shut down the government in October and had State Comptroller Matt Boxer released his audit of Newark’s City Government which exposed millions of wasted taxpayer money and management practices that encourage fraud in September instead of this week, Lonegan might have pulled off the upset that Booker deserved.
There’s nothing wrong with 4 of the 5 Republicans reported to be looking to challenge Booker. Assembly Minority Leader Jon Bramnick, Senator Minority Leader Tom Kean JR, Senator Mike Doherty or Assemblyman Jay Webber would all serve New Jersey well in the U.S. Senate.
That Darryl Isherwood included Assemblyman Chris Brown is his list of 5 Republican of potential candidates to challenge Booker is more of a reflection of Isherwood’s sense of humor than it is of Brown’s viability as a candidate for any office in the future. After blaming his Assembly running mate John Amodeo’s 39 vote loss on Governor Christie, Brown will be lottery winner lucky if he is even re-nominated for his Assembly seat in 2015. “What will Brown do after politics?” MMM asked a senior Republican strategist after the gaffe. “We’ll find out soon,” the strategist said with a laugh.
(Correction: As a commenter pointed out, Isherwood was referring to a different Assemblyman Chris Brown (the LD 8 Brown) than the one who blamed Christie for his running mate’s loss. My mistake makes my overall point. MMM readers are more informed than the average voter. How many knew there was even one Chris Brown in the Assembly prior to the LD 2 Brown’s gaffe? There isn’t a member of the legislature with the statewide name ID to compete with Booker~ Art)
With Election Day behind us and the end of the year approaching, there is still one political question that has yet to be answered: Who will challenge Sen. Cory Booker in next year’s Senate contest? So far, no challenger has emerged, though several…
Gov. Chris Christie isn’t done helping Steve Lonegan, the former Republican U.S. Senate candidate. The Auditor is told that Christie — who endorsed Lonegan, his former rival, and held one fundraiser for him during his unsuccessful campaign against…
