Could Pallone Be A Redistricting Target?

By Art Gallagher

The Star Ledger’s Auditor  is raising the question. 

The members of the Redistricting Commission must be appointed by June 15.   The Auditor says he/she was told that Democratic State Chairman John Wisniewski plans to void the appointment of Belmar resident Maggie Moran to the commission.  Moran, former Governor Corzine’s deputy chief of staff and campaign manager, was appointed to the commission by former Chairman Joe Cryan, at Pallone’s urging, as one of Cryan’s last acts before turning the chairmanship over to Wisniewski.

Moran, who is the wife of Belmar Mayor Matt Doherty, is supposed to be Pallone’s eyes and ears on the commission.   Her removal would be a blow to Pallone, according to The Auditor, this year in particular as New Jersey is losing a congressional district.  One incumbent congressman will lose his job regardless of the electoral outcome.  The Auditor implies that Democratic boss George Norcross and Republican Governor Chris Christie would like that incumbent to be Pallone.

How would that work?

Pallone’s 6th district borders the 4th, 7th, 12th and 13th districts.  He resides in Long Branch which is in the south east coastal part of the district.

While it is entirely possible in New Jersey that a gerrymandered district that includes Long Branch of Monmouth County could be combined with Clinton Township in Hunterdon County, home of 7th district Republican Congressman Leonard Lance or West New York, Hudson County, home of 13th district Democratic Congressman Albio Sires, neither scenario is likely.

Combining Pallone’s 6th with Rush Holt’s 12th would make sense based on geography as the 12th shares the largest border with the 6th.  Even though neither Pallone or Holt is particularly well liked by Democratic leaders in New Jersey or Washington, it is unlikely that the Democrats would surrender a district without a fight. 

Which would leave a match up between New Jersey’s two most senior congressmen, Pallone who has been in Congress since 1988 and 4th district Congressman Republican Chris Smith who has served since 1981.  While it would be unusual that seniority be discarded as an incumbent protection consideration during a redistricting battle, an argument could be made along the lines of “continuity of representation.”  Pallone first went to Congress as the representative of the 3rd district after the death of Congressman James Howard.  Much of the pre-1992 3rd district is now part of the 4th.

Even with his $4 million war chest, it is hard to imagine Pallone beating Smith in a combined district that includes southeast Monmouth and portions of Republican Ocean and Burlington counties.  Smith would dominate in his Mercer home turf.

Pallone vs. Smith would be a great race.  It probably won’t happen.  I’ll explain why at the end of this piece.  But first let’s have some fun speculating about the fallout of such a district.

If Long Branch and Pallone are moved south into a district combined with portions of Smith’s (of Hamilton in Mercer County) 4th district,  it would make sense that the Northern Monmouth portions of the present 6th district would be folded into the Rush Holt’s 12th district.  

That would create an interesting race for the GOP nomination in the 12th.  Diane Gooch, Mike Halfacre, Anna Little, and Scott Sipprelle could all be contenders for that nomination.

Little beat Gooch for the 6th district nomination primary by 83 votes before losing to Pallone by 11% in the 2010 general election.  She declared that a loss of only 11% was a victory and launched her 2012 race against Pallone in the weirdest election night concession speech ever.   Since election night 2010 Little has alienated herself from both her local Tea Party and establishment GOP supporters.  She’s chomping at the bit for a rematch with both Gooch and Pallone, but she’s referred to as a “coo coo bird” by former supporters.  A Pallone-Smith match up would wreck havoc on her delusions.   Only Little, her family and Larry Cirignano, her escort/handler/manager/driver/tenant, believe Anna Little will ever be nominated for congress again.

Halfacre, the Mayor of Fair Haven, has been kicking himself for bowing out of the race for the 12th district nomination since Tea Party candidate David Corsi beat Sipprelle in Monmouth County in the 2010 primary.  Sipprelle won the nomination by virtue of his margin of victory in Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset and Hunterdon before losing to Holt by 7% in the general. 

Halfacre was the Tea Party favorite during his contentious race against Sipprelle for the party lines in 2010. Sipprelle won all the county party lines and Halfacre correctly concluded that a primary against Sipprelle without at least the Monmouth or Middlesex lines was not winnable.  Corsi’s Monmouth victory naturally lead to “what ifs?”  Little’s narrow victory over Gooch created additional “what ifs?”

But the self funding Sipprelle did not spend any money to defeat Corsi.   Gooch took victory over Little for granted in the primary.   Given how contentious the Sipprelle-Halfacre county conventions/screenings were, it is likely that a primary between to two would have been bloody and expensive.  Halfacre couldn’t have matched Sipprelle’s money.

Halfacre would have a heavy lift to regain his Tea Party support.  If either Gooch or Sipprelle seek the nomination, he would have a heavier lift to raise the money necessary to compete.  After Little’s victory in the 2010 primary, it will be a long time before any candidate or county party organization takes a Tea Party challenge for granted.  Halfacre’s best hope for a nomination against Holt is for both Gooch and Sipprelle to conclude that 2012, a presidential year with Obama leading the ticket, is not the year to take on Holt.   

Both Gooch and Sipprelle are staying in front of the party faithful.  Gooch with Strong New Jersey and Sipprelle with the Lincoln Club of New Jersey, organizations each has founded since losing their respective races.  Gooch has been open about wanting to run for congress again, depending on how the districts are drawn.  Sipprelle has been coy about a future candidacy.

A Gooch-Sipprelle primary defies imagination.  Given the money both could spend on such a race, a deal would likely be brokered by the state and county party chairmen before it would occur.  But if ego got the better of either of them, it would be quite a race.   A more sensible sceanario would be for one of the millionaires to take on U.S . Senator Robert Menendez while the other takes on Holt.  

So while redistricting Pallone and Smith into the same district could make the Republican nomination contest in the Holt’s district more interesting, a Pallone-Smith battle is unlikely even should a district be drawn that way.  Should such a district be drawn look for Pallone to retire from the House and use his hefty war chest as a down payment for a statewide race for Governor in 2013.

Pallone’s $4 million war chest would clear the field of Democratic candidates for Governor, unless Chris Christie isn’t a candidate or has anemic poll numbers, neither of which is likely.  Christie would love to defeat Pallone, which he would but it would probably be a close race.  Pallone would then run for U.S. Senate in 2014, assuming Frank Lautenberg finally retires.

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Another Conservative Who Can’t Count

By Art Gallagher

NJ.com blogger Paul Mulshine has a piece today criticising the Tea Party movement for not waging primaries against “safe” Republican state legislators.   Add Mulshine to the list of so called conservatives who can’t count.

After the general election last year I was alarmed by the “RINO hunting” rhetoric I was hearing from activists I had come to know as volunteers for the Little campaign.   Locally and nationally, the Tea Party efforts were focused on defeating Democrats with conservative Republicans.  Why would we now focus our energy on defeating Republicans?  Waging Republican primaries to compete for seats held by Democrats made sense last year.  Putting “safe” Republican seats at risk doesn’t make sense. Not when we’re the minority party.

We live in a state dominated by a Democratic legislature.  Defeating well known and well liked “safe” incumbents in primaries would those “safe seats” in play.  Democrats would dedicate resources to winning those seats if they were “vacant.”   Rather than “RINO hunting” the Tea Party activists would be wise to continue their efforts to defeating Democrats.  Leave the RINO hunting until after we’ve won a majority.

That’s the advise I gave the Tea Party leaders who would listen to me back in November.  I’m grateful that many heard the message, whether they heard it from me or somebody else.

Mulshine is making light of the Tea Parties having a convention and training sessions this weekend because without primaries the training won’t weaken the Republicans chances to pick up seats in November.   

Some Tea Parties are making noise about waging third party campaigns.  If that is the agenda and result of the convention than the organizers are crazier than Mulshine.  Third party conservative campaigns in “safe” Republican districts will increase the Democrats chances of expanding their majority. 

If the point of the Tea Party Convention is to make inroads into Democratic districts, then their efforts will be well spent.

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NJ Tea Party Coaltion Condemns Arizona Shooting

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Hazlet Democrats Excluded Duly Elected Committee Members From Participating

This just in from Frank Cotton of the Monmouth Tea Party Coalition:

Did they break the law?

I need everyone who can to go to the www.app.com look up my profile frankcott and respond to this:

Three  members of a local tea party group  (Monmouth County Tea Party Coalition) did write-ins in June for democratic county committee chairs. The people were Bill Lawton,  a gentleman (anonymous) and a woman (anonymous) for district 13. As of today, none of these 3 have been allowed to participate in democratic meetings, leaving them out of important events like the recent November elections.
Bill Lawton was notified of winning but the man and woman were not notified . Afterwards Bill spoke with Joe Marks,  the democratic township committee man, and Joe Marks responded that he didn’t want Bill or the others on the committee because 

“you are not friends of the democratic party”.  This remark shows how the democrats in Hazlet are about getting their own like minded people and don’t respect the democratic process and voice of the people, not unlike our national democratic leaders.
Mr. Marks, why  haven’t included these write-ins in the  democratic meetings? Don’t you understand our constitutional rights, apparently not?

Frank Cotton of the Monmouth County Tea Party Coalition is now making inquires to the county board of elections and sees to have the state question the alleged actions of the local democrats. Meanswhile Hazlet, Aberdeen and and towns will soon find themselves under democratic leadership and proababy become high taxed, limited rights, congested and social welfare havens like the northern counties due to the alleged corruption and like minds of these democratic leaders. We have seen healthcare, cap and trade, and all kinds of deception at the national level by democrats, we don’t need that nonesense here in monmouth county.

Furthermore today, Frank Cotton asked the democratic county committee at http://www.monmouthdems.org/mcdc/Pages/Contact.htm the following question:

“I would like to know why Bill Lawton and Cindy Butler, write-ins for the country committee, are being excluded from your organization? Please respond to them directly so we can all participate in our democratic process. “

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Average Some One

By Art Gallagher

This post is for my Tea Party friends and my Republican friends in Monmouth County who continue to relate to each other with caution and trepidation or worse.

I’d like you all to consider the evolution of my friend James Hogan and the evolution of our county party over the last two years.

Hogan was the embodiment of the Tea Party before most Tea Partiers got off the couch.  Motivated, dedicated and completely out of his mind, he ran in the 2008 GOP primary for the nomination in the 6th Congressional District of New Jersey.

A few weeks after the 2008 primary, Hogan wrote of his first encounter the the MonmouthGOP establishment. It wasn’t pretty, but it worth reading.

Today, James wrote about his more recent experience with “the establishment.”  There has been a great deal of progress in two + years.

James has not compromised any principles, nor has he become any less outspoken.

He is an example of what is possible for those who are passionate about our politics yet new to the polictical process.  Those who have welcomed James graciously into the process are examples of the kind of leaders who empower the growth of our party.

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Peggy Noonan Nails It

From the Wall Street Journal:

Tea Party to the Rescue

How the GOP was saved from Bush and the establishment.

Two central facts give shape to the historic 2010 election. The first is not understood by Republicans, and the second not admitted by Democrats.

The first: the tea party is not a “threat” to the Republican Party, the tea party saved the Republican Party. In a broad sense, the tea party rescued it from being the fat, unhappy, querulous creature it had become, a party that didn’t remember anymore why it existed, or what its historical purpose was. The tea party, with its energy and earnestness, restored the GOP to itself.

Read the entire piece here.

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Quote of the day

“I can see November from my house.”  ~ Chris Fotache

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Jersey Shore Tea Party Files Suit Against ObamaCare

HEALTH CARE LAWSUIT FILED PRO SE

 The Jersey Shore Tea Party in conjunction with Ocean County Citizens For Freedom (a Tea Party Group), the Colts Neck Tea Party and several individuals have filed a 15 count lawsuit IN NJ Federal Court against ObamaCare. (suit attached)

The suit names Kathleen Sebelius US Dept of Health and Human Services, Timothy Geithner, US Dept. of the Treasury and Hilda Solis, US Dept of Labor as Plaintiffs and was filed by plaintiffs Nicholas E. Purpura and Donald R Laster Jr pro se. They are Jersey Shore Tea Party members.

The lawsuit includes several counts already approved in Federal Court and adds numerous other charges.  This consortium of individuals and groups marks a milestone in the New Jersey Tea Party Movement.  New Jersey is a hot bed of Tea Party activity and this lawsuit is in line with those efforts to secure the Republic from leftist radical elements that have seized the executive and legislative branches of our government.  The overt debasement and circumventing of our Constitution cannot be permitted to proceed unchallenged.

To add your voice and your name to the filing please go to jerseyshoreteaparty.org.

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Tea Party Racists

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Who Is the Tea Party, Part 3

In this final installment of my interview with Barbara Gonzales, the founder of the Bayshore Tea Party, we discuss the motivations of the groups members and leadership, the diversity of the members and the truth about who the Tea Party is vs the perception the media is attempting to create about them.

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