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Murray: Dems will get their map

By Art Gallagher

New Jersey will have a legislature controlled by the Democratic party for another ten years, according to Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray.

In a column posted on Politickernj and on his own blog Murray dissects the tea leaves of that Alan Rosenthal, the tie breaking 11th member of redistricting commission, revealed in his public statements about the standards that will be used to determine the new legislative map.  Murray concludes that the Rosenthal approved map will result in 22 “safe” Democratic districts and 18 “safe” Republican districts.

Murray says that Rosenthal values “continuity of representation” ….that incumbents should be drawn into districts where the majority of voters are already represented by them…over “competitiveness”  and that as a result the new map will have a “deminis” impact on the status quo.

Murray also implied that the Democrats have outmaneuvered the Republican in there redistricting preparation. He says Democrats organized themselves to negotiate with the 11th members of the commission whereas the Republicans organized themselves to challenge the new map in court, where they will likely lose.

Murray’s margin of error is +/- 100% of Rosenthal’s consistency with his historical body of work.

Posted: March 16th, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Legislature, Monmouth University Poll, Patrick Murray, Reapportionment | Tags: , , | 3 Comments »

Look who is covering Little and Pallone!

The Asbury Park Press has a front page piece about the Monmouth University Poll on CD-6.  There is even a positive headline for Anna Little,
Poll: Little closing in on Pallone in 6th District race.  Good for the Nudniks, they easily could have written, Little still trailing Pallone.

They’re probably trying to get back into the CNN news feed.

Actually the credit should go to Patrick Murray.  The Nudnik article was basically a rewrite of his press release for the poll.

With this line, Frank Pallone will need to bet on a strong turnout in more Democratic areas of this district to fend off this challenge,” Murray acknowledged that the incumbent is not winning this race.  The poll predicts a strong Democratic turnout in its sample.  Such a turnout can not be counted on.

There is no question this race will be determined on turnout.  As my friends at InTheLobby write today, Independents are siding with Republicans nationally by 14%.  In NJ-6, Little leads Pallone by 21% among Independents, according to Murray. Up from 14% three weeks ago.  The increase in support among Independents correlates with Little’s increased name recognition.  Three weeks ago, 45% of the voters had no opinion of her. Now that number is down to a still very high 31%.

Frank Pallone is on the verge of losing to a relative unknown.  As Little becomes more known, her support swells.  She’s easy to vote for, despite Pallone and Barbara Buono trying to paint her as extreme and out of the mainstream.

Murray credits the “Anna’s Army” ground game, lead by “General” Russ Cote, as the reason that Little has closed the gap so significantly in three weeks.  There is no question that The Bayshore Tea Party’s passionate and tireless troops continue change the political landscape of Central Jersey.  If Anna wins, they will have made that unpredictable result happen.

However, also contributing to Anna’s surge is Governor Christie’s personal involvement in the campaign, and Frank Pallone’s own TV ads. Pallone’s “positive” ad emphasises how out of touch he is with the district.  In my own unscientific poll of 5 CD-6 voters, 80% said they were less likely to vote for Pallone after seeing the ad. 20% were undecided.  Pallone’s “negative” ad attacking Little is a complete failure.  100% do not believe Little is the extremist Pallone portrays her to be. The ad can’t help but increase her name recognition.

Finally, Diane Gooch’s ad for Voice For My Child , while not mentioning Little, has given Independents an additional reason to vote against Pallone.

Little’s TV advertising will start airing tomorrow.  Her direct mail pieces have been going out for the last week.  She is poised to win this, but still needs help. 

Do what you can to get out the vote for Anna Little in CD-6.  Donate, talk to friends and family, email your friends links to her ads.  As Governor Christie has repeatedly said, we don’t want to wake up on November 3 regretting the one thing we didn’t do. 

If you’re in CD-12, or know people who vote in CD-12, do the same for Scott Sipprelle.  Send them the link to this ad.

Posted: October 26th, 2010 | Author: | Filed under: Anna Little, Asbury Park Press, Chris Christie, Frank Pallone, Monmouth University Poll, Patrick Murray, Scott Sipprelle | Tags: , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Look who is covering Little and Pallone!

Little Narrows The Gap To 7% in New Monmouth University Poll

In a poll released this morning by Patrick Murray, Executive Director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, GOP challenger Anna Little has closed the gap in her race to unseat 22 year incumbent Frank Pallone to 7% with a margin of error of +/- 3.9%.   An October 6 poll by Murray had Pallone leading by 12%.

Like his October 6 poll, Murray’s sample assumes a heavy Democratic turnout in the 6th congressional district.  The partisan break down of the respondents in the earlier poll was 53% registered Democrats, 23% Republicans and 24% Independent.  The sample of today’s poll is 51% D, 24% R and 25% “other.”

The registration breakdown of the district is 37% D, 15% R and 48% I.

Murray says Little is leading Pallone in Monmouth County by a margin of 52% to 45%, up from losing 47%-49% on October 6th.  Murray says the difference is partisan.  However, in the Monmouth County portions of the district, Dems are 29% of registered voters, Rs 19% and Independents 51%.

Murray says Little is losing in the Middlesex, Somerset and Union portions of the district by 58% to 37%.  The registration break down in those counties is 44% D, 11% R and 45% I.

Middlesex, Union and Somerset comprise 51% of the voters in the district, Monmouth 49%.  In last year’s general election Governor Christie won the district by 8% with Monmouth County accounting for 52% of the turnout.

If Little turns out Monmouth County the way Christie did, and if 35% or more of Independents show up to vote, Little wins. Murray says Little leads Pallone among I’s by 58% to 37% compared to 51% to 38% three weeks ago.

Posted: October 26th, 2010 | Author: | Filed under: Anna Little, Frank Pallone, Monmouth University Poll, Patrick Murray | Tags: , , , , | 4 Comments »

Has Murray Changed His Mind, Or Has He Lost It?

By Art Gallagher

The political website formerly known as politicsnj.com is reporting that Monmouth University Polling Institute Executive Director Patrick Murray has issued a press released denying that he backed off his polling numbers of October 6th indicating that Frank Pallone is leading Anna Little by 12 points in the CD-6 congressional race.

According to the website, Murray said, ”

“It has come to our attention that the campaign of Anna Little, Republican candidate for Congress in New Jersey’s 6th District, issued a press release claiming that the Monmouth University Poll revised its official poll results for the election in that race,” Murray said in a statement. “This is patently untrue.  The poll report we issued on October 6 (http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP…) is the only official number we produced.”

Note the spin, “official number.”

This is what Murray had to say on MoreMonmouthMusings last week,

Art’s original criticism of our voter turnout model is a fair one, since no one knows what Nov. 2’s electorate will look like and I responded to that by re-running our numbers using his assumptions and providing that data.

Murray’s re-run numbers resulted in a margin on 9%, a 25% difference from his “official” numbers.

Murray re-ran his numbers, on his own volition, after reading this post criticising his voter sample.  MMM called him the following day for clarification on his sample of 2 of 4 voters.  Much to my surprise, he already had the new calculations ready when I called.

Murray issued his denial in response to this press release from the Little campaign.  Murray is parsing words.  He uses the words “official numbers” twice, while failing to acknowledge to the media at large that he did indeed adjust his numbers.  No where did the Little camp say “official numbers.” They said he adjusted his numbers, which he did.

Murray needs to be forthright about this, or he risks damaging his already diminished credibility further.

Posted: October 11th, 2010 | Author: | Filed under: Anna Little, Monmouth University Poll, Pallone, Patrick Murray | Tags: , , , | 6 Comments »

Patrick Murray Responds

Patrick Murray said at 8:10 pm on October 8th, 2010:

The problem with the so-called math error is that you are using unweighted sample sizes (which pollsters use to estimate error) to back into the horse race numbers, rather than using the weighted adjustments to the subgroups upon which our final numbers are based. You can find those weighted adjustment in our methodology statement (which Art originally did, but Bill didn’t). The difference between what unweighted and weighted “n sizes” is something that every pollster DOES learn in polling school. And since we adhere to principles of full disclosure, we give both the unweighted and weighted information. Unfortunately, it is lack of public knowledge about polling principles that lead many other pollsters to withhold disclosure, so they can avoid uninformed critiques. We at Monmouth believe that all our data should be out there. Art’s original criticism of our voter turnout model is a fair one, since no one knows what Nov. 2’s electorate will look like and I responded to that by re-running our numbers using his assumptions and providing that data. This criticism, however, is just plain wrong.

Editors note:  I’m relieved to hear a credible explanation from Patrick.  While I will lose no sleep derailing the careers of Frank Pallone, Rush Holt and John D’Amico, MMM means Patrick Murray no harm.

I sat on the math discrepancy story most of the day waiting for Patrick to call.  I sought out expert advise that was not available.  Next time I’ll wait longer. ~ Art

Posted: October 8th, 2010 | Author: | Filed under: Monmouth University Poll, Patrick Murray | Tags: , | Comments Off on Patrick Murray Responds

“Patrick Murray needs to go back to school”

~ Governor Chris Christie on NJ101.5’s Ask the Governor, September 29, 2010

Monmouth University’s CD-6 poll has math errors!

By Art Gallagher

Turns out that Governor Christie was right about Patrick. Not just because Murray polled non-voters in his approval poll of the governor. Murray’s math is wrong in the CD-6 poll he released on Tuesday.

As much as I have enjoyed the kudos I have received since Murray said he revised his numbers based on upon my assumptions, I don’t fully deserve them. I challenged Murray’s assumptions about the demographics of the district. It never occurred to me to check his arithmetic.

Fortunately, it did occur to an MMM reader, Bill Wolstromer of Colts Neck.

Refer to Murray’s numbers on page 2 of his press release.

Compare Murray’s math to Wolstromer’s email to Murray:

From: wolstromer AT aol.com
To: pdmurray At monmouth.edu
Sent: Thu, Oct 7, 2010 2:48 pm

Mr Murray,
 
I have a number of questions about this poll, starting with the numbers not adding up.  If you simply multiply the responses for each group by their candidate preference, the result is Pallone-51.2%, Little-42.5%, Undecided-6.3%, a margin of 8.7% NOT 12%.  Additionally, if the Undecided voters break according to their party affiliation, the gap narrows to 8.4%.  Have you tricked the numbers to show Republicans and independents being less likely to vote than Democrats?  Highly unlikely in this environment
 
Bill Wolstromer
 
View Bill Wolstromer’s math here.
x

 

 

 

Doing the math, Murray’s original poll release should have announced a 9% margin between Frank Pallone and Anna Little. Not the 12% margin that was announced.  That’s a 25% difference.

 

Murray has yet to respond to Wolstromer’s email, or to my phone call this morning seeking comment or clarification.

 

Murrary owes an explanation to the media and the people of New Jersey who have come to rely upon him as a credible pollster.

 

 

Posted: October 8th, 2010 | Author: | Filed under: Monmouth University Poll, Patrick Murray | Tags: , | 1 Comment »

Monmouth Univeristy Poll: Pallone Leads Little 53%-41%

A Monmouth University Poll released today gives Congressman Frank Pallone a 53%-41% lead over Highlands Mayor Anna Little in the race for the NJ-6 congressional seat.  6% of likely voters are undecided according to the poll.

“A 12 point lead may look comfortable, but not when you consider the fact that Pallone regularly wins reelection by more than 30 points,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “District demographics are the key to this race. Little does well in independent-minded parts of the district. The question is whether it will be enough to overcome the built-in Democratic advantage here.”

Pallone and Little are basically tied 49% to 47% in the Monmouth County half of the district, but Pallone has a sizable 58% to 33% lead in the other half, which includes urban strongholds in Middlesex and Union counties.

Little actually leads by 51% to 38% among self-identified independent voters in this district, but, so far, it is not enough to overcome the Democrats more than 2-to-1 registration edge over Republicans in New Jersey’s 6th.

Congressman Frank Pallone’s job performance rating among likely voters in his district stands at 46% approve to 36% disapprove. He also garners personal ratings of 48% favorable to 32% unfavorable.

By comparison, 33% of voters give Little a favorable rating and 22% are unfavorable, with nearly half

(45%) offering no opinion on the Highlands Borough Mayor.

Posted: October 6th, 2010 | Author: | Filed under: Anna Little, Monmouth University Poll, Pallone, Patrick Murray | Tags: , , , | 5 Comments »