Christie has a credibility problem

Only 23 % of New Jersey residents think Governor Chris Christie has been completely honest regarding his involvement in and knowledge of the Bridgegate affair, according to a Monmouth University Poll released this morning.  69%, including 52% of New Jersey Republicans, think Christie is being less than completely honest.

“The governor has maintained that he was not involved in the lane closures nor did he know about them as they were happening. Most New Jerseyans don’t buy it,” said Patrick Murray, Executive Director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Half of New Jersey residents, 52% of registered voters, think Christie was personally involved in the George Washington Bridge Lane closures during his reelection campaign in September of 2013.  Only 34% think he was not personally involved.

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Patrick Murray: Mark Magyar mischaracterized his analysis

Magyar admits mistake, promises to fix it but doesn’t

By Art Gallagher, [email protected]

Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray responded to my post this morning, Patrick Murray is emphatic that his next poll will be negative for Christie, about his quote in Mark Magyar’s anti-Chistie spin piece on NJSpotlight with an email asserting that his analysis was mischaracteriszed.

Patrick Murray

Murray provided an email exchange between himself and Magyar wherein Magyar admits his mistake and promises to fix it.

Murray said:

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Patrick Murray is emphatic that his next poll will be negative for Christie

By Art Gallagher, [email protected]

UPDATE 4:15PM:  Murray says Magyar/NJSpotlight mischaracterised his analysis.  Read the next chapter here.

Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray already knows that his next poll about Bridgegate and the Mastro Report, will have an negative outcome for Governor Chris Christie.

Murray is quoted by Mark Magyar in a NJSpotlight piece posted this morning saying emphatically that his next poll will have negative results.

“The Mastro report raised more questions than it answered about what is going on in the Christie administration,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, noted. “Now, the release of the memos has raised even more questions, including questions about the credibility of the Mastro report itself.”

Murray said he could not imagine what Christie and his top advisers were thinking when they settled on their current legal and political strategy. “Every time they put something out, they undercut their credibility,” he said. “Everything they do provides fodder that keeps this investigation alive and keeps this story alive. The report was overly protective of the governor, and now everyone is looking through the memos to see what the report left out. Nothing gets settled, everything looks worse.”

A Quinnipiac Poll released last week showed that 56 percent of New Jerseyans regarded the report as a “whitewash” and only 36 percent believed it to be a “legitimate investigation.” Even more ominously, 65 percent of voters knew of the Hoboken case, and 57 percent of that group believe Zimmer’s allegation that the Christie administration improperly withheld Sandy aid from her city because she refused to support the Rockefeller Group development.

Murray said he expected to see similar results in his next Monmouth Poll. “It will be negative. This is not going to be positive,” Murray stated emphatically, asserting that the controversy over the Mastro report clearly resonated with voters. “The question now with Christie is, ‘Have we hit a floor where a certain percentage of people will defend him no matter what, and everyone else will attack him?’”  (emphasis added)

 

Murray enjoys a well-earned reputation for producing polls that most accurately match the results of elections in New Jersey.  However, his declaration of a poll’s results before he’s asked a question raises serious questions about his credibility as a political scientist and the perceived “independence” of his analysis.

In fairness I should point out that it is possible that Murray already conducted his survey and hasn’t reported the results yet.

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Monmouth Poll: Christie will be re-elected The only question is by how much

“Christie’s level of firm support means the eventual winner is not in question. The only unknown is the final margin of victory,” ~ Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Governor Christie meeting with business owners at McLoone’s Pier House in Long Branch, April 18, 2013. Photo by Art Gallagher

New Jersey’s gubernatorial election is more than a month away and Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray has called the race for Governor Chris Christie.

In a survey conducted last week and released this morning, Christie leads challenger State Senator Barbara Buono 56%-37%, a nearly identical margin to the August Monmouth poll of 56%-36%.

80% of likely voters say they won’t change their mind on who to vote for on November 5.  60% of Independents, 89% of Republicans and 25% of Democrats say they will vote to give the Republican governor another four years.  There is no gender gap. 56% of men and 55% of women say they will vote for Christie.

Buono’s name recognition has improved significantly since the August poll, but as voters get to know her, they are not impressed. 67% have an opinion of Buono, up from 52% in August, but more than half of those opinions are negative. 38% still don’t know enough about Buono to form an opinion.

Posted: October 2nd, 2013 | Author: Art Gallagher | Filed under: 2013 Election, 2013 Gubernatorial Politics, Barbara Buono, Chris Christie, Monmouth University Poll, Patrick Murray | Tags: Barbara Buono, Chris Christie, Monmouth Poll, Patrick Murray | Comments Off on Monmouth Poll: Christie will be re-elected The only question is by how much

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Christie approval rating remains high, poll says

Christie approval rating remains high, poll says (via NJ.com)

Ed Murray/The Star-Ledger TRENTON — With election day only seven weeks away, Gov. Chris Christie is still enjoying solid approval ratings among New Jerseyans, a new poll indicates. Sixty-one percent of people polled approve of the job Christie is…

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Monmouth Poll Shows Booker’s Weakness

Lonegan can close the gap

New Jersey voters do not buy that Newark Mayor Cory Booker is a “new kind of politician,” according to the Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press Poll released this morning.

Booker responded on social media. He’s a kind politician, not a new kind of politician.

Hmmm.  This post might give New Jersey more insight into Booker’s foreign policy philosophy than the Lonegan campaign’s “silly and childish” tweet during a Democratic primary debate. Let’s be kind to terrorists and our foreign enemies.  That fits with the Obama/HClinton/Kerry foreign policy of apologizing for America.

Patrick Murray’s poll of likely voters continues to show Booker beating GOP nominee Steve Lonegan by double digits.  Today’s 54%-38% Booker lead is nearly identical to the pre-primary 53%-37%  lead the Newark Mayor enjoyed in June.  In other words, Lonegan has gained no ground by deploying his anti-Obama campaign strategy in the last two months.

But despite his huge victory, the Democratic primary took something of a toll on Booker’s favorability ratings, which have dropped 12 points net since June.  Given how easy Congressmen Frank Pallone and Rush Holt went on Booker during the primary, a 12 point drop is significant.

photo via facebook

In order to close the gap and make the Special Senate Election competitive, Lonegan needs to scrap the idea of making the campaign a referendum on President Obama’s policies.  We had that referendum last November and Obama won in New Jersey by 18 points.  Lonegan has said that Obama’s numbers are going to drop. They have dropped a bit, only 49% of New Jersey likely voters told the Monmouth University poll that they approved of the President, while 43% disapprove.  If those numbers suddenly plunge, Lonegan will benefit without trying.  If Obama’s approval stays stubbornly positive, as they have through various scandals, Lonegan stands to gain little ground.

50% of those who said they have a favorable opinion of Booker also said they could change their minds.  Booker’s favorables are soft.  Obama’s have proven to be stubborn.

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Christie Reverses the Gender Gap

Women Approve of Christie More Than Men Do

Public Workers Give Governor High Marks

Guv Christie accepting Sea Bright Mayor Dina Long’s endorsement. Photo by Serena DiMaso. Taken with Tom Arone’s phone

Governor Chris Christie still looks to be cruising to reelection, according to a Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press poll released this morning.

Christie’s overall approval rating is 63%, according to Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.  The governor’s ratings are slightly stronger among registered voters, 65% of whom approve of his job performance. 86% of Republicans, 64% of Independents and 52% of give Christie high marks.

On the stump, Christie has been promoting how he has reduced the size of government in New Jersey since taking office. “There’s over 5000 fewer employees in state government today than when I took office, and over 20,000 fewer government employees across the state,” Christie says in a campaign video, “We promised to make government smaller, we’ve made government smaller.”  Despite these facts, 54% of public workers approve of Christie’s job performance compared to 37% who do not.

Since Superstorm Sandy, there has been virtually no “gender gap” in Christie’s approval ratings as measured by the Monmouth Poll.  In a poll released on September 27, 2012, one month before Sandy, men approved of Christie’s performance by a 61%-31% margin. Women approved by only 6 points, 47%-41%.  In Murray’s first post Sandy poll on Christie, in December, the gender gap closed. 68% of men and 66% of women approved in December.  The trend continued in the February poll with 69% of men and 70% of women approving of the governor.  In today’s poll, the gender gap exceeded the statistical margin of error for the first time since Sandy, with the surprising result that women approve of Christie more than men do. Women approve by a 65%-26% margin and men approve by 61%-27%.

If Murray polled a head to head match up between Christie and the presumptive Democratic nominee for governor, State Senator Barbara Buono, he did not report the results today. He did report that 59% of registered voters think that Christie deserves a second term.

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Do New Jersey Voters Care About Menendez Scandal?

Which poll to believe?

New Jersey voters  either strongly disapprove of New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez and think he’s dishonest, or they really don’t care much about the news of his ongoing scandals, depending on which poll you trust.

This morning the Quinnipiac Polling Institute released a poll that indicates that Menendez approval rating is down 15 points in one month. By a 44%-28% margin, New Jersey voters say he is not honest or trustworthy. Menendez’s approval numbers are upside down with 41% of voters disapproving of him and only 36% approving.

Just a week ago, Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press released a poll with the headline Sen Menendez Unaffected By Donor Scandal . The Monmouth/APP poll says that 68% of New Jersey voters had heard about “the donor scandal” but that only 24% thought the senator was involved in any wrongdoing. The poll said that 65% either hadn’t formed an opinion or hadn’t heard enough.  The Monmouth/APP poll said that Menendez’s approval ratings werre similar to prior ratings over the last two years. Last week, 41% of the voters approved of the job Menendez is doing and only 28% disapproved.

Menendez has been in Afghanistan and out of the news for most of the week between poll releases.

Usually the Monmouth and Quinnipiac polls report consistent results, within a point or 2 and within the margin of error. But this is the second time within the last year that there has been such a large disparity between the two respected independent pollsters.  Last April, Monmouth reported Governor Christie’s approval ratings were 11 points lower than Quinnipiac reported a week prior.  There was so much talk about the different numbers last April that Monmouth Polling Director Patrick Murray wrote a column defending his work and criticising Quinnipiac.

This time around, Murray’s poll release is flawed.  His numbers are fine.  It’s his spin, which determines how most news outlets report the poll, that is the problem.

What was asked and when was it asked?

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Monmouth Poll: Christie looks like a lock for reelection

A Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press Poll released this morning echoed the recent Quinnipiac and Rutgers-Eagleton Polls.  Over 70% of New Jersey voters approve of Governor Chris Christie’s performance and over 60% favor his reelection.  Christie is trouncing presumptive Democratic gubernatorial nominee Senator Barbara Buono by more than 40 points.

78% of voters haven’t heard enough of Buono to form an opinion about her.  Polling Director Patrick Murray said the race is likely to narrow to a 20% gap in favor of Christie and the Democratic challenger becomes better known.

“There is a long history that shows horse race polling has little predictive value this far out from an election. This is especially true when there is a popular incumbent and a largely unknown challenger. The important number here is that 6-in-10 voters support Gov. Christie’s re-election,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “This suggests that the race should close in on a 20 point margin as the campaign progresses and Buono becomes better known. The question remains whether the challenger can peel off Christie supporters to shrink that gap even more.”

Murray says that jobs, property taxes, schools, storm recovery and gun control are very important issues to the New Jersey electorate.   Minimum wage is an important issue with most voters supporting an increase.  However, Christie’s conditional veto of a minimum wage increase has not hurt his support with most voters.

According to Murray’s analysis, Buono has the potential to motivate 7% of the electorate to switch from voting for Christie to voting for her. If she gets all of them, Christie still wins with over 50% of the vote.

Monmouth polling staff attempted to identify voters who could potentially be motivated to switch support from the incumbent because of this issue. This group includes voters who: feel Gov. Christie deserves re-election, are dissatisfied with his veto, say they will vote to support a minimum wage ballot measure, and report that the issue is very important to their vote for governor. Analysis shows that this group comprises about 7% of the total electorate. Hypothetically, if Sen. Buono were able to convince all of these voters to abandon their support for Christie, his re-election support would remain above the 50% mark.

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Anna Little’s Campaign Falls to Respond to FEC Inquiry

Monmouth GOP Headquarters. Who's missing? Click on photo for full view

Anna Little’s congressional campaign has failed to respond to the Federal Election Commission’s demands for accurate information about the campaign’s finances.

As reported by MMM on September 12,  the FEC wrote Little’s husband and campaign treasurer, Rob Little, three separate letters in late August regarding serious deficiencies in the campaign’s April 2012 quarterly report, the 12 day pre-primary report, and the June 2012 quarterly report.  The April and pre-parimary reports lacked donor information.  The July report, which reported a negative cash balance of over $11,000, did not jibe with the previous two reports.  The FEC demanded that all of the reports be ammended and that they be filed electronically.  The deadline for the April amendment was September 28.  The pre-primary report amendment was due on October 1 and the July amendment was due yesterday.  None of the amendments are posted in the FEC website.

The FEC’s letters stated in bold print that requests for extensions would not be considered and that failure to comply could result in audits and enforcement action.

The FEC analysts who wrote to Little referred MMM to the press office.  The press office spokewoman told MMM that reports that are filed electronically are posted to the commission’s website “almost immediately.”  Reports that are submitted via paper are posted “within 48 hours.”   The spokeswoman twice suggested that MMM contact the campaign. “It will be interesting to hear what they have to say,” she said.

Rob Little told MMM that he received the letters and referred them to the campaign’s compliance officer.  Little declined to give the name of the compliance officer, stating, “you’re going to twist whatever I say.”

Speaking of twisted….

The Little campaign yesterday emailed a fundraising appeal declaring that her race against Congressman Frank Pallone is winnable based on Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press polling data.

The email, signed by “Anna,” cited Monmouth University Polling Director Patrick Murray’s statewide poll released last week  that measured the favorability ratings to potential Democratic gubernatorial challengers to Governor Chris Christie in 2013.  Pallone scored a statewide favorability rating of 16% statewide (17% among Republicans), 9% unfavorable and 75% had no opinion.  Little compared that poll to a October 2010 Monmouth survey of the old 6th congressional district that indicated Pallone was beating Little in that race by 53% to 41%.

Little’s email told her prospective donors:

THE RACE IS WINABLE

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