2012 Predictions

Serena DiMaso will be elected Monmouth County Freeholder at the Title 19 convention of the Monmouth GOP Committee on January 14.   Bob Walsh will withdraw during his speech before the convention.

Bill Spadea defeats Donna Simon and John Saccenti at a Title 19 convention of the 16th legislative district to fill the assembly seat vacated by the death of Peter Biondi.  After recounts and law suits, the November special election for the seat is declared a tie between Spadea and Democratic Princeton Committeewoman Sue Nemeth.  Another special election is scheduled for January of 2013.

Joe Oxley will be named Township Administrator and In House Attorney for Wall Township.  The appointment will forward a statewide trend of municipalities hiring either attorneys or engineers as their administrators as a cost saving measure.   Oxley is reelected GOP County Chairman by acclamation.  Senator Jennifer Beck will give the nominating speech.  Christine Hanlon will be Vice Chair.

Middletown will get a new Parks and Recreation Director.  It won’t be Linda Baum or Pam Brightbill.

Jim McGreevey is ordained an Episcopal priest.

Jon Corzine remembers where he put the $1.2 billion.

Senator Joe Kyrillos will be the GOP nominee for U.S. Senator, defeating Anna Little and Joseph Rudy Rullo in the primary. 

Congressman Steve Rothman defeats Congressman Bill Pascrell in the Democratic primary for the 9th Congressional District nomination.  In the only surprise of the primary, former Bergen County GOP Freeholder Anthony Cassano, who had agreed to take one for the team in the 9th, was defeated when the Bergen County Tea Party Group organized a write-in campaign for Anna Little.  Little was on the ballot as a U.S. Senate candidate.  Having lost the Senate nomination to Joe Kyrillos, Little accepts the nomination, asks Kyrillos to host a fundraiser for her, and promises to move into the district if she wins.   She doesn’t.

Maggie Moran defeats Vin Gopal and Frank “LaHornica” LaRocca in a close election for the Monmouth County Democratic Chairmanship.

James Hogan of Long Branch is the GOP nominee for Congress in New Jersey’s 6th Congressional District.  Frank Pallone is reelected by 8%.

Jordan Rickards of North Brunswick  is the GOP nominee for Congress in New Jersey’s 12th Congressional District.  Rush Holt is reelected by 15%.

On August 28, the second day of the Republican National Convention, the National Weather Service warns that Hurricane Chris is heading towards the Jersey Shore.  Acting Governor Kim Guadagno gets on TV and says, “Get the heck off of the beach please.”

Mitt Romney will be the GOP nominee for President of the United States.  New Jersey Governor Chris Christie will be the Vice Presidential nominee.

President Obama nominates Vice President Joe Biden to be Secretary of State.  Biden submits his resignation as VP effective upon both houses of congress confirming his successor.  President Obama nominates Hillary Clinton as Vice President.   Speaker of the House John Boehner refuses to schedule confirmation hearings for the VP nomination on the constitutional grounds that their is no vacancy in the office.   Obama makes them both recess appointments.  Clinton is nominated for VP at the Democratic National Convention and Secretary of State Biden spends October in China.

Despite losing their home states of Massachusetts and New Jersey, the Romney-Christie ticket wins the electoral college by one vote, 270-269.   The winning vote comes from Maine, one of two states that awards electoral votes by congressional district.  Romney-Christie lose Maine 3-1 but win the election.  Obama-Clinton file suit to challenge Maine’s method of awarding electoral votes.  Romney-Christie counter with a suit in Nebraska, which they won 4 electoral votes to 1, using the same arguments that Obama-Clinton use in Maine.  The U.S. Supreme Court decides both cases for the plaintiffs, 5-4, and determined that in all future presidential elections that electoral votes are awarded on a winner take all basis nationally.  Tea Party leader Dwight Kehoe calls for the impeachment of the Justices who voted affirmatively, claiming that they don’t understand the 10th Amendment.

Robert Menendez defeats Joe Kyrillos for U.S. Senate by 1%.

U. S. Senator Frank Lautenberg resigns.   In one of his last acts as Governor before ascending to the Vice Presidency, Chris Christie appoints Kyrillos to Lautenberg’s Senate seat.

What do you think will happen?

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Bye Bye Mennen. Really

Hunterdon County Freeholder William Mennen, heir to the Mennen deodorant fortune, has dropped his bid to to run for the 16th district Assembly seat vacated by the untimely death of Assemblyman Peter Biondi, according to a report on Politickernj.

Mennen was the GOP establishment choice for the seat.  He does not live in the district.  A proposed legal challenge from Bill Spadea, Princeton, also running, doomed Mennen’s candidacy.

Spadea still faces competition.  Donna Simon, a Readington Township Committeewoman announced her candidacy upon Mennen’s withdrawal, according to Politickernj.  South Brunswick Health Board Member John Saccenti is also running.

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Bill Spadea Announces Run for New Jersey Assembly

Joined by Former Romney Counsel Charlie Spies for February 2012 Special Convention

PRINCETON, NJ (November 30, 2011) —  Princeton Township resident Bill Spadea has officially declared his candidacy for the vacant New Jersey Assembly seat in the newly redrawn 16^th Legislative District by filing the necessary documents on Friday, November 25.   The vacant Assembly seat was held by longtime public servant, Assemblyman Pete Biondi, who sadly passed away two days following his re-election this month. 

Mr. Spadea will vie for the party’s nomination at the special four-county convention, which will happen within 35 days of the swearing in of the new Assembly on January 10, 2012.  The vote at the convention will determine who will fulfill a one-year term for the vacant Assembly seat.  Mr. Spadea will also participate in the June 5, 2012 primary to become the 16^th Legislative District’s Republican candidate for the NJ legislative special election on November 6, 2012.

“Pete Biondi was a great legislator, public servant, community leader and patriot. So many business and political leaders asked and encouraged me to consider this run to do right by Pete’s legacy of public service. I was so honored by their request that I felt compelled to step up,” said Spadea.

Mr. Spadea’s campaign is off to a strong start, enlisting the support of prominent GOP attorney Charlie Spies.  Mr. Spies, head of Clark Hill PLC’s national Political Law practice, served as CFO and Counsel for Governor Mitt Romney’s 2008 Presidential campaign, as well as counsel for the Republican Governors Association in 2006 and the Republican National Committee in 2004.  Spies stated, “Bill is a dynamic and enthusiastic candidate. His conservative principles, business background and organizational success make him the right man at the right time for New Jersey.”

Princeton Township is one of the eight new municipalities that will be a part of the new 16^th Legislative District in January 2012.  It was also one of the first municipalities to vote to consolidate with another municipality this month.  The consolidation of Princeton Township and Princeton Borough will be historic for the state of New Jersey.

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Bill Spadea has worked in New Jersey as a senior executive in the real estate industry for the past 15 years.  Additionally, he is an on-air political analyst and Republican strategist for several New York Region television stations. Mr. Spadea served in the United States Marine Corps Reserve from 1991 to 1999.  He ran for U.S. Congress in New Jersey’s 12^th district and earned more than 115,000 votes (40%) in 2004 running against the heavily-funded incumbent Rush Holt.  He is the co-founder and past-president of Building the New Majority, a grassroots political organization focused on helping NJ citizen-legislators win local campaigns.  Mr. Spadea lives in Princeton with his wife Jodi and their two children, who attend Princeton public schools – where he serves on the Zoning Board, is a coach for little league, chairs the annual Veteran’s Day event, and serves as master of ceremony for the annual Memorial Day Parade/Service.

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LD 16 Assembly Race: A Classic Grassroots vs. Establishment Matchup

The 16th legislative district Assembly vacancy caused by the untimely death of Assemblyman Peter Biondi is resulting in yet another NJ Republican grassroots vs. establishment, conservative vs. moderate, battle.

The new LD 16 is comprised of parts of Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex and Somerset Counties.  Somerset dominates the district.  The Somerset GOP is dominated by Princeton Public Affairs Group, perhaps the most powerful lobbying firm in Trenton. The current Somerset GOP Chairman, Alfred Gaburo, is a senior executive at PPAG.  The former Somerset GOP Chair, Dale Florio, founded PPAG.

PPAG’s Republican members have deep roots in the NJ GOP establishment dating back to the Whitman-DiFranceso-Haytaian era.   PPAG’s Democrats have equally deep roots in their party.  PPAG and their clients are prominent among the “Who’s Who” of New Jersey.  It doesn’t get more establishment than PPAG.

The Somerset GOP has lined up behind Hunterdon County Freeholder William Mennen to fill Biondi’s Assembly seat, according to Politickernj.  Mennen lives in Tewskbury, part of the new 23rd legislative district.  He will move into the 16th.  Most probably he will move into a Hunterdon County town in the 16th, as his Somerset County support is very likely the result of a deal between the Hunterdon and Somerset GOP chairs.   The other LD 16 legislators, Senator Christopher “Kip” Bateman and newly elected Jack Ciattarelli hail from Somerset.  Ciattarelli is a Somerset County Freeholder.  He was nominated for Assembly after incumbent Denise Coyle was redistricted out of the district and decided to retire rather than move.

You really need a score card to keep track of the players in this district.  Biondi’s death and Coyle’s decision not to move really messed up Dr. Alan Rosenthal’s theory of continuity of representation, at least as it applies to LD 16.

Mennen is an heir of the deodorant company that was founded in Newark in 1878 and moved to Morristown in 1953.  He is the great-great grandson of company founder Gerhard H. Mennen.

The company, which was sold to Colgate-Palmolive in 1992, donated the land for the William G. Mennen Sports Arena to Morris County in 1973.  G. Mennan “Soapy” Williams, grandson Mennen’s founder, was the Democratic governor of Michigan from January 1, 1949 through January 1, 1961.  You don’t get much more establishment than Mennen.

Challenging Mennen and the establishment will be grassroots activist Bill Spadea of Princeton.  Princeton is in the Mercer County part of LD 16, but the Mercer and Middlesex GOP organizations have little say in the race.  They are minority portions of the district and the counties are Democratic strongholds.

Spadea was the 2004 GOP nominee for Congress against Rush Holt.  In 2008, Spadea and his friend, biotech executive John Crowley, founded Building a New Majority, who’s stated mission is to develop Republican candidates for local, county and state offices through direct financial contributions and grassroots support.  The organization’s pragmatic mission was widely considered  to be the  building of a network to support Crowley’s political ambitions to be a U.S. Senator, which have waned in recent years.

Spadea sent an email to Building a New Majority members last night announcing that he was stepping down as President to prepare for the LD 16 Assembly race.

While an activist with strong conservative credentials and relationships, Spadea is not a fire breathing RINO hunter in the Lonegan tradition.   Through Building a New Majority he has sought to be a bridge between to the establishment and the more conservative grassroots Republicans.  His bridge building could work against him in a primary.  Establishment voters will automatically support Mennen.  Conservatives may hold Spadea’s support of Rudy Guiliani in the 2008 presidential primary against him.

Spadea’s conservative supporters are already positioning him as the real conservative over the moderate Mennan.  However that could prove to be a tough sell.  Mennen’s record of fiscal conservatism as a Hunterdon County Freeholder is solid.

Spadea has little hope of winning at a convention to replace Biondi.  If he is able to raise money to fund a competitive primary against likely incumbent Mennen, he will face a very uphill battle in a presidential year where Mennen will likely be sharing the line with the Mitt Romney, another heir of a Michigan governor, who will have likely have already locked up the GOP presidential nomination.

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