Patrick Murray is emphatic that his next poll will be negative for Christie

By Art Gallagher, [email protected]

UPDATE 4:15PM:  Murray says Magyar/NJSpotlight mischaracterised his analysis.  Read the next chapter here.

Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray already knows that his next poll about Bridgegate and the Mastro Report, will have an negative outcome for Governor Chris Christie.

Murray is quoted by Mark Magyar in a NJSpotlight piece posted this morning saying emphatically that his next poll will have negative results.

“The Mastro report raised more questions than it answered about what is going on in the Christie administration,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, noted. “Now, the release of the memos has raised even more questions, including questions about the credibility of the Mastro report itself.”

Murray said he could not imagine what Christie and his top advisers were thinking when they settled on their current legal and political strategy. “Every time they put something out, they undercut their credibility,” he said. “Everything they do provides fodder that keeps this investigation alive and keeps this story alive. The report was overly protective of the governor, and now everyone is looking through the memos to see what the report left out. Nothing gets settled, everything looks worse.”

A Quinnipiac Poll released last week showed that 56 percent of New Jerseyans regarded the report as a “whitewash” and only 36 percent believed it to be a “legitimate investigation.” Even more ominously, 65 percent of voters knew of the Hoboken case, and 57 percent of that group believe Zimmer’s allegation that the Christie administration improperly withheld Sandy aid from her city because she refused to support the Rockefeller Group development.

Murray said he expected to see similar results in his next Monmouth Poll. “It will be negative. This is not going to be positive,” Murray stated emphatically, asserting that the controversy over the Mastro report clearly resonated with voters. “The question now with Christie is, ‘Have we hit a floor where a certain percentage of people will defend him no matter what, and everyone else will attack him?’”  (emphasis added)

 

Murray enjoys a well-earned reputation for producing polls that most accurately match the results of elections in New Jersey.  However, his declaration of a poll’s results before he’s asked a question raises serious questions about his credibility as a political scientist and the perceived “independence” of his analysis.

In fairness I should point out that it is possible that Murray already conducted his survey and hasn’t reported the results yet.

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Opinion: Sweeney Starts to Gather Strength for Possible Governor Bid

Opinion: Sweeney Starts to Gather Strength for Possible Governor Bid (via NJSpotlight)

When Senate President Steve Sweeney took a victory lap in celebration of the Democrats’ maintaining their legislative majorities, it served also as the start of an effort to cast himself as a credible candidate for his party’s gubernatorial nomination…

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Christie Administration Reflects on Sandy Recovery Progress and Challenges

Christie Administration Reflects on Sandy Recovery Progress and Challenges (via NJSpotlight)

When Sandy made landfall last October, displacing 120,000 from their homes, NJ Department of Community Affairs Commissioner Richard Constable said his department took immediate action to provide shelters and assist towns with their budgetary problems…

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Opinion: What Happened to Long Coattails in Gubernatorial Elections?

To a legislator, the difference between being in the majority and being in the minority is as consequential as the difference between being in office and being out of office. That is why my political life was transformed in November 1985 when, as a…

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Mapping Out Areas in New Jersey at Risk of Future Flooding as Ocean Levels Rise

How vulnerable is New Jersey to flooding caused by rising sea levels and climate change? Very vulnerable, according to a new tool developed by Climate Central, a Princeton-based nonprofit that researches the effects of climate change. A year after Sandy…

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The List: Who Spent the Most on Lobbying in New Jersey Last Year?

The List: Who Spent the Most on Lobbying in New Jersey Last Year? (via NJSpotlight)

Lobbying is a big business in New Jersey. The New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission reports that more than $58 million was spent last year by businesses, organizations, and lobbyists to try to influence lawmakers, the governor, and the general…

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Trends Toward Greater Doctor Shortage Worry State Legislators

New Jersey policymakers looking to address a looming shortage of doctors in the state need to act quickly, as the problem appears to be getting worse and more quickly than predicted. More of the state’s medical residents are planning to leave the…

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Ocean Grove Beachfront and Boardwalk May Not Get FEMA Funding To Rebuild

By Art Gallagher

Photo credit: Ocean Grove Camp Meeting Association

Neptune Township’s beachfront and boardwalk in the Ocean Grove section of the Township might not get the estimated $3 million in FEMA funding needed to rebuild because the property is owned by the private non-profit and religious Ocean Grove Camp Meeting Association (OGCMA), according to an article by freelance journalist Caren Chesler published at NJSpotLight.

Neptune Township Committee Member and Ocean Grove business owner Randy Bishop, as well as Michael Bascom, the Township’s CFO are working with OGCMA to pursuade FEMA to pay for the repairs on the stretch of beach that connects the regional shoreline from Asbury Park south to Spring Lake.

In a press release posted on OGCMA’s website, President Dr. Dale C. Whilden said, “The Camp Meeting is fully committed to restoring Ocean Grove’s beautiful beachfront, a keystone of our community as well as a protection from ocean storms, and we’re on track to implement a comprehensive beach and boardwalk restoration plan.  With God’s blessing and the assistance of our local, state and federal officials, as well as support from individuals and organizations, our beach will open on Memorial Day weekend.”

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Higher Education Restructuring

Last month Governor Chris Christie announce a complex restructuring of New Jersey’s medical schools.

Under the proposal,  Newark’s UMDNJ would be replaced by New Jersey Health Sciences University, University Hospital would be placed under non-profit management and Rutgers-Camden and its law school would become part of Rowan University.  Cooper Medical School in Camden would become part of Rowan.

Mark Magyar has an excellent piece on the proposed restructuring at NJSpotlight.

Alarmed by the prospect of losing the prestige that comes with the Rutgers name, many at Rutgers Camden, including our friend Brian McGovern of Save Jersey are fighting the move to Rowan.  Save Jersey has become Save Rutgers Camden today with a lengthy post about how to legally block the merger.

Magyar in his NJSpotlight piece noted that the name of the South Jersey institution is important to advocates of the merger as well:

The absorption of Rutgers-Camden, with its 6,000-plus students, into Rowan, with more than 11,000 students, was not so much a matter of numbers as of name. Sources said that the family of Henry Rowan, who donated $100 million to expand his alma mater, Glassboro State College, into Rowan University, balked at the idea of the Rutgers name displacing Rowan.

Furthermore, Norcross, as head of Cooper University Medical Center, had been heavily involved in the creation of the new Cooper Medical School at Rowan University, and both he and Sweeney have talked about the importance of a South Jersey university that would not be a stepchild to the much larger Rutgers University in New Brunswick, as the Camden campus was sometimes perceived to be.

The South Jersey merger with Rowan has also gotten some push back from Rutgers-Camden faculty,  Rutgers retiring president Richard McCormick.  Colleen O’Dea outlines reports both sides of the controversy in a  NJSpotlight piece today.

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Republicans’ map favors minorities

John Farmer, the tie breaking member of the congressional redistricting commission, chose the Republicans’ map because, in his view, it created the possibility of two more minority districts than they Democratic map did, according to a report by Mark Magyar at NJSpotlight.

The new 9th district’s population is 53.1% minority.  Leaders of the minority community were pleased with the map, counting on it becoming a minority represented district once Bill Pascrell, who turns 75 this month, retires.  But Steve Rothman, 59, challenging Pascrell in the Democratic primary makes eventual minority representation less likely, which could lead to a minority challenger entering the 9th district Democratic primary.  That’s the point of Magyar’s piece.

The addition of all of Trenton and Plainfield in Rush Holt’s district, presumably makes the 12th the other potential minority district.

The NJGOP should identify and agressively recruit high quality minority candidates to run in these districts.   A Hispanic in 9 and an African American in 12.  Then the GOP should  raise the money to make those campaigns competive.

The GOP should recruit and fund an Asian American to challenge Frank Pallone in the 6th, while they are at it, unless Diane Gooch decides to run.

If running competively in the 9th, 12th and 6th is considered a pipedream, than it is also a pipedream that Joe Kyrillos can beat Robert Menendez for U.S. Senate or that the GOP presidential nominee can win New Jersey.

If the NJ GOP uses the same old playbook it will get the same old result.

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