MacArthur counter-punches Lonegan In CD-3

Tom MacArthur

In the race to replace Congressman Jon Runyan as the GOP nominee in the 3rd congressional district (Ocean and Burlington counties) former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan is doing what anyone who has observed New Jersey politics for the last twenty years expected he would do.  He’s attacking his opponent, former Randolph Mayor Tom MacArthur, as a tax and spend RINO who paid for the GOP establishment support.   In the race between carpetbaggers, Lonegan is attacking MacArthur for be a worse carpetbagger.

MacArthur has the support of the Burlington and Ocean GOP machines. Lonegan, who beat Cory Booker in the district in last October’s special U.S. Senate election, has superior name recognition, a PolitickerNJ commissioned poll that gives him a huge lead, and his trademark attention getting rhetoric.

MacArthur counter-attacked Lonegan in a Open Letter last week by calling him desperate, negative, angry, caustic and creepy.  All the things Lonegan’s supporters love about the guy.

MacArthur took particular umbrage to the fact that a Lonegan supporter did some opposition research by visiting the facebook page of MacArthur’s 16 year-old daughter and blogged anonymously about it.

Moreover, I am appalled that you are promoting an anonymous internet blog by a person or organization who has clearly spent a considerable amount of time spying on my 16-year old daughter’s Facebook page in search of an issue to use against her father in a political campaign.

Frankly, Steve, it’s creepy.

 

What salacious dirt did Lonegan’s blogger dig up on MacArthur’s daughter on facebook? She lists herself as a student at Randolph High School which is 90 miles away from the 3rd district.

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Holt Bolts

Congressman Rush Holt announced this afternoon that h.e will not seek a 9th term in the House of Representatives.   In a statement posted on facebook, the rocket scientist/Jeopardy champion said it was a honor to serve and that there are no hidden motives in his decision to retire. “For a variety of reasons, personal and professional, all of them positive and optimistic, the end of this year seems to me to be the right time to step aside and ask the voters to select the next representative.”

Holt couldn’t debate healthcare with Rhoda Chodosh.  He certainly doesn’t want to debate Dr. Alieta Eck this fall.

Holt was a candidate for U.S. Senate for the Democratic nomination in the Special Election to replace the late Senator Frank Lautenberg last summer, losing then Newark Mayor Cory Booker, the winner of the nomination and the seat, and Congressman Frank Pallone.

Democrats are lining up to compete for the nomination to replace Holt in the 12 district which includes parts of Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset and Union Counties and is considered a safe Democratic district by most political experts.

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Lonegan says he’ll run for Congress in South Jersey

Lonegan says he’ll run for Congress in South Jersey (via NJ.com)

TRENTON — Steve Lonegan, the firebrand former Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, is running for a House seat. Lonegan told The Star-Ledger today that he will run for the South Jersey U.S. House of Representatives seat held by U.S. Rep. Jon Runyan…

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House Approves $17 Billion in Sandy Aid. Another $33 Billon Expected To Be Approved Tonight

The House of Representatives approved the first of two bills expected to be voting on today which, if also approved in the U.S. Senate and signed by the Presdient, will provide $50 billion in federal funds to New Jersey, New York and Connecticut to rebuild from the destruction caused by Superstorm Sandy.

The $17 billion approved this afternoon will pay for Sandy clean-up, dredging, small business loans and infrastructure repairs. The $33 billion to be voted on tonight will be for the longer term rebuilding effort.

The bills were split in two to accommodate members of the Republican caucus who support the $17 billion, but not the $33 billion.

According to The Star Ledger, New Jersey Republican Congressmen Frank LoBiondo (NJ-2) and Jon Runyan (NJ-3) ripped into their fellow Republicans for withholding support of the disaster assistance.

“To my colleagues who have sought funding themselves and now say we need to change the rules of the game: shame on you,” Rep. Frank LoBiondo (D-N.J.) said after the vote. “We need to have a new caucus, the hypocritical caucus.”

Rep. Jon Runyan (R-3rd Dist.) said he knew more than 30 of his Republican colleagues who oppose the bill even though they sought similar aid when disaster struck their districts.

“Mr. Speaker — I would say to my friends — why should New Jersey and New York be treated any differently? ” Runyon said. “My friends should ask themselves what would they do if it was their district that suffered the amount of catastrophic loss that many of the families and businesses in my district now face.”

Democratic Congressman Frank Pallone said that Republicans that opposed the aid do not understand the extent of the damage.

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If Pallone wants to be a U.S. Senator, he should run for Governor

Congressman Frank Pallone is on television more than U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) now-a-days, not because of his outrage that House Speaker John Boehner delayed the vote of the Superstom Sandy relief package, but because he needs to raise his profile in the minds of New Jersey voters.

Since Newark Mayor Cory Booker dropped out of the gubernatorial race and announced his intentions to explore seeking the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Senator Frank Lautenberg in 2014, Pallone has been letting Democratic power brokers that he too want’s Lautenberg’s job and he has been on TV every chance he can get.  Pallone has long coveted a U. S. Senate seat, but has never had the fortitude to risk his seat in the House to run for it.  Governor Jon Corzine passed over Pallone in favor of Bob Menendez in 2006 for the appointment to fill the Seante vacancy created by Corzine’s election as governor and Lautenberg came out of retirement to take over Bob Toricelli’s spot on the ballot in 2002 after Pallone passed or was passed over, depending on which version of the story you believe.

Pallone is acting like he is willing to make a race of it against Booker for the 2014 Democratic nomination for Senate.  Given Booker’s star power, social media savvy and resulting name recognition, Pallone has an uphill battle.  Booker works twitter better than any other politician with his clothes on.   In order to match Booker’s name recognition, Pallone would need a crisis to go on TV about every week.  Either that or he needs to start running into burning buildings and living on food stamps.   Or, he can run in a statewide race in an election he is not expected to win to raise his name ID and as prelude to the race he wants to win.

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Congressional Voting Ratings

Pallone and Payne, 17 others are tied for #1 most liberal members of congress

Republicans Smith and LoBiondo have higher liberal rankings than conservative rankings

National Journal has released its annual Congressional Voting Ratings and New Jersey has two congressman tied for the #1 most liberal member of congress based upon how they voted throughout 2011.

Frank Pallone, NJ-6, Long Branch, after being ranked the 70th most liberal member of congress in 2009, the 33rd most liberal in 2010, surged to the top of the list to earn a number 1 ranking in 2011.

Donald Payne of Newark, NJ-10, shares the #1 liberal ranking with Pallone and 17 other members throughout the country.  Payne’s liberal ranking was 46 in 2009 and 113 in 2010.

Rush Holt, NJ-12 joins Pallone and Payne among the top 50 liberals, coming in at #43, a drop from his 14th place showing in 2010.  Holt was #1 in 2009.

The most conservative member of New Jersey’s delegation?  That would be Scott Garrett, NJ-5, which is really no surprise.  What is surprising is that Garrett, who is often portrayed in the New Jersey media as a right wing fringe lunatic and the most conservative member of congress, is in the middle of the pack, ranked # 143 on the conservative scale.

NJ-3 freshman Jon Runyan’s #181 conservative ranking makes him the #2 conservative in the New Jersey delegation.

Leonard Lance, NJ-7 is ranked #191 on the conservative list.  Rodney Frelinghuysen, NJ-11 is #206.

Republicans Chris Smith, NJ-4, and Frank LoBiondo, NJ-2, have higher liberal rankings than conservative rankings.  Smith is #195 on the liberal list and #235 on the conservative list.  LoBiondo is #205 on the liberal list and #225 on the conservative list.

In the Senate, Frank Lautenberg is #14 on the liberal list.  Bob Menendez is #31 on the liberal list.

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Runyan holding on to 3% lead

The GOP’s only remaining hope to pick up a Congressional seat in NJ remains with Jon Runyan in CD-3.  With a 5,000 lead and three districts yet to report, MMM calls the race for Runyan.

Fake Tea Party candidate Peter DeStefano picked up 3100 votes.

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No Passion For Pallone

If turnout at pre-election rallies are an indicator of voter turnout, Anna Little will be the Congresswoman from the 6th district of New Jersey during the 112th Congress.

Last night at the Shore Casino in Atlantic Highlands some 300  Republicans, Tea Partiers and Independents rallied with Little, the Monmouth County ticket of Sheriff Shaun Golden, Freeholder candidates Rob Clifton and Tom Arnone and the Atlantic Highlands Council ticket of Lou Fligorand Jake Hoffman.   Across the hall, 30 people (a generous estimate) mingled with Frank Palloneand the Monmouth County and Atlantic Highlands Democratric candidates.

300 are expected again tonight for the GOP team at Bachstadt’s in Middletown with Governor Christie.  If the Monmouth Democrats are rallying tonight they won’t have a headliner.  Presidents Obama and Clinton are elsewhere.  Corzine wasn’t invited.

Turnout will be the key to victory.  All signs point to a broken glass turnout for Republicans, i.e. Republican voters will crawl through broken glass to vote.  There are no signs of Democratic voters being so motivated.

I’ve been worried about Plainfield where Democrats outnumber Republicans 12-1.  Plainfield has been part of the district since the last census in 2000.  Pallone has ignored it until very recently.  There is no passion for Pallone in Plainfield. 

Reading the popular blog Plainfield Today, I learned that the Democrats are divided there after a contentious primary where the “New Democrats” defeated the establishment lead by Assemblyman Jerry Green for the local offices.  There is no competitive local race to boost turnout in Plainfield. That race was won in June and the anti-establishment sentiment prevailed.  While there is reason to be cautiously optimistic about Plainfield, I still praying for a snow storm there and only there.

In Middlesex County, the Republicans are running their best campaign in memory.  They have a legitimate shot of cracking the Democratic stronghold in that county which will boost both Little and NJ-12 candidate Scott Sipprelle.

Murray Sabrin says that if Little wins the GOP will pick up 100 seats in the House. I hope that happens.  However, and I could be wrong, but from where I sit Little shocks everybody and defeats Frank Pallone by a larger margin than Scott Sipprelle defeats Rush Holt and by a larger margin than Jon Runyan defeats John Adler.  There is no passion for Pallone.  There is plenty of passion against Pallone.  There is even more passion for Little.

Little’s MONEY BOMB that we started on Friday night has raised over $9000 as of this morning.  Let’s double, or better, today.  Donate here.

More importantly, turn out the vote.  Talk to your friends, families and co-workers.  Make it happen.

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Remember Chris Daggett?

He ran for Governor last year as an Independent.  MoreMonmouthMusings broke the story that the Democrats paid for robo calls for Daggett in the closing days of the 2009 campaign.  Shameless and desperate, the Dems kept making those calls even after it was all over the news that they were paying for them and after Daggett himself condemned them for doing so.

There are plenty of signs that the Democrats are equally shameless and desperate this year as the GOP is poised to take control of the New Jersey Congressional delegation with victories in the 3rd, 6th and 12th districts.

In the 3rd district, the press has finally confirmed what everybody knew.  The Democrats put a 3rd party “Tea Party” candidate on the ballot to syphon votes away from Republican Jon Runyan in order to help freshman Democratic Congressman John Adler retain his seat in a traditionally Republican district.

The biggest indicator that Scott Sipprelle is winning in the 12th district is that Rush Holt has agreed to debates.  Holt doesn’t even like to take live questions from his constituents.  Rush is probably taking comfort from the fact that liberal Ben Dworkin of Rider University is moderating.  Dworkin proclaimed his liberalness on his facebook page until very recently. He used to be the Assistant Director of Research for NJ Democratic Assembly Office.

Who would have thought that Anna Little would have been within single digits of Frank Pallone 4 weeks before election day?  Who besides me, Mike Laffey, Dwight Kehoe, Bob Gordon, Barbara Gonzalez and Brian Hegarty?  Russ Cote.  Maybe Mickey Gooch too.  He’s got 5-1 odds on Little.

Pallone hasn’t been in a competitive race in 22 years.  He cut his dirty trick budget after the primary, figuring he could cruise to victory and save is $4 million war chest for a U.S. Senate race.  Now he’s resorting to buying everyone pancakes and pleading for help because, in his own words, he “can’t possibly get across the finish line on November 2nd without your continued support.”

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Real Clear Politics: CD-6 A Toss UP!? APP: Pallone Leads By Nearly 2-1

Murray’s Poll Means Different Things To Different People

Real Clear Politics looked at the Monmouth University poll released yesterday and moved the NJ-6 race between Frank Pallone and Anna Little from “Likely Dem” to “Toss Up” . 

Meanwhile, the APP ( All Phoney Palloney?) read Patrick Murray’s poll and wrote a headline claiming that Pallone is leading Little “by nearly 2-1.”   2-1?  Murray said Pallone has a 12% lead.   2-1 would be a 33% lead. 12% is not nearly 33%.

Even my own analysis on Murray’s poll has been bothering me:

Murray classifies a likely voter as someone who has voted in 2 of the last four general elections.  Of the 333,519 registered voters in CD-6, 60,053 voted in 2 of the four last general elections; 23,750 (40%) Democrats, 27,791 (46%) Independents and 8,512 (14%) Republicans, according to GOP records of voter activity.

CD-6 has 333,544 registered voters.  In the last five elections, an average of 157,000 people voted.  The average is 144,000 if you don’t count the 2008 presidential election (254,543 voters) and the 2007 state legislative election(96,950 voters).  Yet, only 60,053 people voted in 2 of the last four elections, the criteria Murray used to select “likely voters.”   Granted, Murray used a different list than I did to measure who voted in 2 of the last 4 elections.  If there is a wide disparity between the two, my analysis of his poll is as flawed as the APP headline.  I think I’ll ask him about his list.

Incidentally, Real Clear Politics also rates the CD-3 race between Jon Runyan and John Adler as a toss up.  RCP rates Scott Sipprelle’s race against Rush Holt as “Leans Dem.”  I find the CD-12 rating hard to believe.  I’m not on the ground in CD-12 as much as I like to be, but I wake up every morning to “I’m Scott Sipprelle and I approved this message.”

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