NJ Consumer Confidence Jumps

Matthew Morehead, dog groomer and Democratic candidate for Assembly looking confident. facebook photo

Optimism among New Jersey consumers rebounded strongly over the last six months, according to a survey released by the FDU Public Mind Poll this morning.

37% of the 588 residents surveyed said their finances are better than they were a year ago, up from 18% in January and 26% last July.

51% believe their finances will be better in the year to come, up from 34% in January and 38% in July, 2012.

 “We’ve not seen numbers this good in quite some time,” said Krista Jenkins, director of PublicMind and professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University. “Despite Hurricane Sandy and an unemployment rate that has left many in the state without work or underemployed, the past year has been good for many Garden State residents.”

72% expect the value of their homes to rise over the next year, compared to only 48% who thought so in January.

“This is an election year, and what people think about their finances is often a big consideration when choosing for whom to vote. Time will tell how strong an influence pocketbook issues will be in shaping the outcome of upcoming elections,” said Jenkins. “One thing is for certain, however, and that’s the rosier view people seem to have these days about the state of their own bottom lines.”

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FDU Public Mind Poll is bad news for Frank Pallone and the politicos who want to replace him

The hopes of Middlesex and Monmouth County mayors, freeholders and legislators hoping to move to Washington in early 2015 as the newly elected representive of the 6th Congressional district were set back a bit this morning by a new FDU Public Mind Poll that shows Newark Mayor Cory Booker dominating the Democratic field to replace Senator Frank Lautenberg.

Congressman Frank Pallone has been considered Booker’s main competition for the 2014 Democratic U.S. Senate nomination among the media and political establishment.  However,  12th District Congressman Rush Holt has almost twice the support among self identified Democrats than Pallone does, according the FDU survey.

FDU surveyed its respondents cable news viewing habits, polling the trustworthiness of CNN, FoxNews and MSNBC.  Given Holt’s surprising showing, they should have surveyed how many of their respondents are Jeopardy fans.  Holt is famous for being a five time Jeopardy winner and beating IBM’s supercomputer, “Watson,” on the TV trivia game show.

Booker leads the Democratic U.S. Senate field with 50% support. Pallone got only 4% and Holt 7%. 32% of the respondents are unsure and are probably Wheel of Fortune fans.

Frank Pallone aged 30 years

Unless Booker becomes incapacitated running into fire, shoveling snow, or leaping a tall building in a single bound, Pallone is likely to remain in the House of Representatives until he’s Launtenberg’s age.

Monmouth Democratic Chairman Vin Gopal, Marlboro Mayor Jon Hornik, former Edison Mayor Jun Choi and Carteret Mayor Dan Reiman best hopes for becoming a congressman is if Gerald Rivera manages to beat Booker next year in the general election and then Pallone beating Rivera in 2020. But that is not much of a hope, as FDU says Booker will beat Geraldo 52%-21%.

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FDU Public Mind Poll: Christie transcending partisanship in a Democratic leaning state

Governor Chris Christie continues to enjoy sky high approval ratings among New Jersey voters and is heavily favored to be reelected in November, according to a Farleigh Dickinson University Public Mind Poll released this morning.

66% of New Jersey voters, including 55% of Democrats and 61% of Independents approve of the governor’s job performance.  If the election were held today, Christie would defeat presumptive Democratic nominee Barbara Buono by 58%-22% with 20% unsure. Christie would garner 36% of the Democratic vote.

48% say they like the Christie personally and like his policies. 18% like him, but not his policies. 12% don’t like the man, but like his policies and 17% don’t like him or his policies.  5% are comatose and were awakened by the pollster’s phone call.

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Christie’s approval ratings surge on Sandy performance

An FDU Public Mind Poll released this morning gives Governor Christie an approval rating 10 points higher than the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll poll released last week.

FDU re-surveyed a group they had polled from October 26th through 29th during the week before Thanksgiving.  Christie’s approval rating went from 56% before Superstorm Sandy to 77% following the hurricane.

The Rutgers-Eagleton poll released on November 21 gave the governor a 67% approval rating, post-Sandy, amongst registered voters.

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FDU Poll: Menendez leading Kyrillos 45%-33%, but Kyrillos has room to define himself

In a poll of New Jersey registered voters released by FDU Public Mind this morning, U.S. Senator Bob Menendez leads State Senator Joe Kyrillos in the race for U.S. Senate by a 45%-33% margin.  FDU did not poll likely voters.

Despite the 12 point gap, the news is not all bad for Kyrilllos.

Among Independent voters the candidates are virtually tied at 28% for Menedez and 27% for Kyrillos.  45% of Independents are undecided.

57% of respondents said they haven’t heard of Kyrillos.  Of those who have heard of him, 22% have no opinion of him,  16% have a favorable opinion and only 5% have an unfavorable opinion.

In contrast, 20% of respondents have never heard of Menendez.  20% of those who have heard of him have no opinion and 23% have an unfavorable opinion.  Only 36% have a favorable opinion of Menendez.   These are very week numbers for an incumbent.

The challenge for Kyrillos is to get known with Independent voters and to do so favorably.  Given Menendez’s $10.3 million to $1.9 million cash advantage (as of June 30) Kyrillos may need to save someone from a burning building or get a gay activist group to attack him unfairly in order to meet the challenge.

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FDU Poll: 55% of New Jersey voters approve of Christie but don’t know why

In the first poll conducted by their new Executive Director, Dr. Krista Jenkins, FDU’s Public Mind Poll found that 55% of New Jersey’s registered voters approve of Governor Chris Christie.  The electorate is divided over whether they like the governor for his personality or his policies.

36% say they like Christie and his policies, 29% don’t like him personally or his policies. 14% like his personally but don’t like his policies while another 14% like his policies but not his personality.

Christie suffers a gender gap.  61% of men approve of his performances compared to only 49% of women. 54% of men say the state is on the right track, compared to 44% of women.

FDU did not distinguish between registered voters and likely voters.

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Poll Dancing

Last month there was something of a controversy over the veracity of the Monmouth University vs the Quinnipiac University polls rating Governor Christie’s performance.  Within one week there was an 11 point swing in Christie’s approval ratings.  A Quinnipiac poll indicated a sky high 59%-36% approval rating for the Guv followed a week later by a down to earth 50%-38% rating produced by a Monmouth poll.  Monmouth University Polling Director Patrick Murray explained the difference by criticising the order in which Quinnipiac asked their questions while acknowledging that his poll is weighted to favor Democrats.

This morning’s Fairleigh Dickinson’s Public Mind Poll  asked the Christie approval question three ways and got three different answers in the same survey.

When asked “How would you rate the job that Chris Christie is doing as governor?” 49% said excellent or good. 49% said only fair or poor and 2% were unsure.

When asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable view of Christie, 51% said very favorable or somewhat favorable, 11% said unsure or mixed and 37% said very or somewhat unfavorable.

When given only two choices, approve or disapprove, 56% approve of Christie and 33% disapprove.  Only 11% were confused, mixed or unsure after taking that survey.

45% of the respondents identified themselves and Democratic or leaning that way, 23% were Independent, unsure or wouldn’t say, and 32% said they were Republican or lean that way.

34% of New Jersey voters are registered Democrats, 22% Republican and 45% are not affiliated with a major party.

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Obama’s numbers improve in NJ, decline nationally

President Obama’s attempt to convert his “war onto religious freedom” into a Republican “war on women” seems to be working in New Jersey, but is falling flat nationally according to two polls released this week.

The FDU Public Mind Poll released this morning shows that the President’s approval rating in New Jersey jumped to 51%.  In January, only 46% approved of Obama’s performance.  Women approve by a 24 point margin, 58%-34%, while men disapprove by 49% to 43%.

In a NYTimes/CBS poll national poll released on Monday, only 41% approved of Obama while 47% disapproved.  In February Obama scored a 50% approval rating in the NYTimes/CBS poll.  Obama’s support among women declined, “even as the debate raged over birth control insurance coverage.”

Both polls indicated that despite his weak numbers and the electorate’s discontent, that Obama would be relected if the election were today.  Voters, including Republicans, are not enthused by the Republican challengers.

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