Did Christie’s Popularity Plunge 11 Points in One Week?

Which poll is closer to reality?  Quinnipiac or Monmouth?

How two respected independent pollsters could have such differing results for Governor Chris Christie’s approval ratings has been the subject of quite a bit of chatter this week since Monmouth University released their poll indicating that Christie’s ratings were 11 points lower than reported by the Qunnipiac poll released last week.  Quinnipiac reported Chrisite’s approval rating at 59%-36% while Monmouth said that 50% of registered voters approve of the job that Christie’s doing compared to 38% who do not.

There’s been enough buzz about the difference that Patrick Murray, Polling Director at Monmouth, posted a piece on his blog (cross posted on Politickernj), that took a swipe at Quinnipiac for framing their approval question in such a way that Christie’s numbers would be higher.  Murray said that because Quinnipiac first asked if Christie would be a good selection as a Vice Presidential nominee, respondents were more likely to give him higher marks when asked to evaluate his job performance.

Quinnipiac, on the other hand plays around with the order in which they ask the governor’s job rating question.  In 8 polls over the past year, they asked Gov. Christie’s job rating as the first question in 3 cases and the 3^rd question in one case.  For the remaining four polls, the governor’s rating question was slotted from #10 and #13 in their questionnaire.

When it was the first question, the governor’s positive job rating was only 44% to 47%.  At the number 3 slot, it was 53%.  At #10 or later in the interview, it ranged from 55% to 59%.  It’s worth noting that the lower poll numbers came early last year, and were either closer to or even lower than other polls conducted at that time.  Hmmm.

In the most recent Quinnipiac poll, one of the questions preceding Gov. Christie’s rating presented him as a potential nominee for Vice President.  In other words, the survey framed the governor as a national figure before asking voters to rate his job performance.  Could this be why his rating among Republican voters in particular shot up to an astronomical 92%?

Pollsters know that job approval ratings can be impacted by the context of a poll interview.  That’s why most pollsters try to place these key trend questions in the same place in every questionnaire.  This increases our confidence that any changes in a politician’s ratings are due to real shifts in opinion and not an artifact of questionnaire inconsistencies.

I’m willing to venture that first naming Chris Christie as Mitt Romney’s potential running mate before asking New Jerseyans to rate their governor might have had a wee bit to do with the two polls’ divergent trends.

Mickey Carroll, Director of the Quinnipac Polling Institute, is not interested in getting into a pissing match with Murray.  “Patrick Murray is a very good pollster,” Carroll said three times in a seven minute phone interview with MMM.  “Every poll is different, something could have happened in the week in between the two polls,” Carroll said, “we asked the question the same way.”

When told that Murray said that Quinnipiac framed the approval question by first asking a question about Christie being a potential VP, Carroll said, “that could make a difference, but I think we asked the approval question first. Didn’t we?  Patrick Murray is a good pollster, a savvy analyst and a smart guy.”

Republican strategists, who would only speak on background, were quick to criticise Murray and side with Quinnipiac.

“The Quinnipiac poll from last week showing the Governor’s job approval at 59% is closer to reality,” said one strategist who cited internal GOP numbers,  “The problem with the Monmouth University poll is that it samples, ADULTS, rather than registered voters, or better still, likely voters.   It is cheaper and easier to poll adults, because there  are a lot more of them and they are easier to qualify.   It is harder, and more expensive, to find and poll a likely voter – especially a likely voter who votes in non-Presidential year elections.”

When told that Murray blamed the difference on how Quinnipiac framed the question, the same strategist said, “Patrick is out of his mind.”

In fairness to Murray, MMM verified that Quinnipiac and Monmouth both sample adults who then self identify as registered voters.  However, on their website Quinnipiac says that they ask screening questions, plural, to determine who is a registered voter.  Murray said Monmouth only asks one question to determine if a respondent is registered to vote or not. He said that 80% of his respondents tend to be voters.  78% of New Jersey adults are registered to vote.

In his blog post, Murray acknowledged that his Monmouth poll results are consistently more favorable to Democrats while Quinnipiac’s are consistently more favorable to Republicans.  MMM asked Murray how that could happen consistently if both polls were using random computer generated phone numbers.  “Is it how you weight the sample?” we asked. “That’s part of it,” Murray said, “the rest is that we (Monmouth) call a greater percentage of cell phones.  Cell phone users tend to be younger and more Democratic.”

With that answer, that weighting his samples more heavily towards Democrats and cell phone users, Murray seemed to be confirming the Republican complaints.

“That’s fine, I’m the only one who consistently asks the trend question in the same place,”  was Murray’s retort, “that’s polling 101.”

Another Republican strategist was more upset about how Murray wrote up his poll release that he was with the numbers.  “Political sands are shifting?” asked the Republican.   “It’s a margin of error shift!  Murray sounds like he is writing press releases for the Democratic State Committee, not acting as an independent pollster from an esteemed New Jersey university.”

A third Republican scoffed at the notion of even taking Murray’s numbers seriously, pointing out how badly Monmouth Gannett polled the 2009 gubernatorial race between Chrisite, former Governor Jon Corzine and Chris Daggett.  “Murray’s last poll in that election had Corzine winning by 2 points and Daggett getting 8% of the vote.  Christie won by 5 points a few days later.”

MMM set out to find a Democratic strategist to weigh in on the difference between the two polls, but no one would talk to us.  “Try Patrick Murray,” was the best answer we got.

UPDATE

Murray called shortly after this piece was posted to ask that if his 2009 gubernatorial results were going to be used against him, that his correct calling of the 2010 CD-6 congressional race also be mentioned. 

During the 2010 congressional race, MMM analysed a Monmouth Poll that indicated Congressman Frank Pallone was leading Anna Little by 11%.  MMM concluded, using Monmouth’s data, that Pallone’s lead should be 9%.  Murray agreed, “your turnout assumptions are as good as mine,” he said.  Things got funky when the Little campaign issued a press release announcing that Murray had revised his numbers based upon MMM’s analysis and that Pallone’s lead was then in single digits.  Murray issued a release stating that his “official” numbers hadn’t changed.  He issued a later poll that indicated Pallone’s lead was down to 7% and in the final days of the campaign said a Little victory “could well happen.”

When Pallone eventually won by 11%, Murray said he was right all along.

It was all great fun for MMM, except that Murray stopped taking our calls for a while.

In his call this afternoon, Murray reiterated that the primary difference between the recent Quinnipiac poll and his poll about Christie’s approval ratings, is that Quinnipiac changed their methodology by altering the order of the questions.

Regarding polling adults vs polling registered voters, Murray said he was not in the business of electing or reelecting any candidate.  He said his job is to report on what New Jersey residents are thinking.

Murray also said that his “poltical sands are shifting” comment in the poll release was a reference to New Jersey Democrats who being more aggressive in how than they go after Christie than they have been in the past.  It was not a reference to the public’s approval of Christie, he said.

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Monmouth Tea Party Coalition Endorses Anna Little in CD-6

By Frank Cotton

Last election Anna Little proved to be someone that would represent the people and not party politics. She has endured hostile treatment by former supporters that appear to be “party centered” and not concerned with the decay and downward direction of our country.

Recently members of the MCTPC reviewed candidates for congress and the backing they have received and used this as a “beacon of light”. We are very disgusted with the politics and the continued effort of those in both parties to not put forth constitutionally leaning candidates yet these parties swore an oath of allegiance to our U.S. Constitution. Only Anna Little has proven to be for Americans whether they are conservative or the “useful idiots” of the globalists. Therefore we proudly support Anna Little because it is clear Anna Little is not only older, but has proven to be best committed to people’s freedoms and restoring American greatness. She would never say “after this election I can be more flexible“.

Many say “our congress is now leaning more conservative so why bother?” Well this current congress has no clue, they don’t over-ride executive orders, they haven’t de-funded fascist political hidden agendas and have done nothing to audit our federal expenditures. Where is the outrage? It saddens many of us that so many people don’t realize our constitution declares our rights and shouldn’t be looked at as an outdated document. It provides for checks and balances and basic fundamental rights have not diminished due to TV, electricity, computers and the availability of cross state travel.

We put our trust in Anna Little and those folks who are tired and feel it’s not worthwhile to vote. We trust they will see the light and be engaged and await the long hard battle (here we go again) to victory.

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Congressional Primaries

The Republican Party will have primaries in both congressional districts that include Monmouth County on June 5.

Anna Little, the 2010 nominee in the 6th congressional district, will have the party line in Middlesex County.  Little filed petitions with the Secretary of State with 594 signatures.  Ernesto Cullari has the party line in Monmouth County.  He filed petitions with 319 signatures.   The winner of their primary will face Congressman Frank Pallone in the general election.

In the 4th congressional district, Congressman Chris Smith is being challenged by Terrence McGowan.  Smith filed with 1,064 signatures to McGowan’s 311.   200 signatures are required.

Brian Froelich of Spring Lake is the only Democrat who filed in the 4th district.

In the 7th district, Congressman Leonard Lance is being challenged by David Larsen in a head to head rematch of the 2010 primary that included two additional challengers.  Assemblyman Upendra Chivukula is the Democratic nominee.  He filed with 430 signatures.

The statewide list of congressional primary candidates can be found here.

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You can fool some of the people some of the time…..

Monmouth County GOP nominee for Congress Ernesto Cullari’s campaign manager, Charles Measley, just called from Trenton where he and Cullari were filing petitions with 319 signatures for the 6th District GOP primary election.

Measley said that a reporter from The Star Ledger asked Cullari what he thought of Anna Little quitting politics to become a singer.

Cullari told the reporter he didn’t know what to think and that Little seems to keep changing her mind about what office she wants to seek, according to Measley.

In case you missed it, yesterday was April 1.

Measley said that by the time he left the Secretary of State’s office at about 1PM, neither Little or anyone from her team had arrived to file petitions. No fooling.  The deadline is 4PM.

Update

Little arrived at the Secretary of State’s office to file her petitions at about 2:30.

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Little Quits Politics, Launches Musical Career

Falling short of the required 200 signatures to be a candidate for Congress, former Highlands Mayor Anna Little announced this morning that she is quitting politics and launching a career as a singer.

In an email blast to supporters the former freeholder and 2010 GOP nominee for Congress from New Jersey’s 6th district said,

“I have come to the conclusion that I can do more to serve we the people, born and unborn, with my God given musical talent than I can in the rough and tumble world of politics.   We have made a difference together, you and I, over the last two years that has given rise to certain opportunities that you made possible.

Governor Chris Christie has offered me the opportunity to sing the National Anthem at Super Bowl XLVIII at MetLife Stadium.  Texas Governor Rick Perry said he would have me sing the Anthem at the Cowboys-Giants game in Arlington this November.  Christie and Perry have promised to put a good word in for me with the 2013 Inaugural Committee to sing at President Romney’s swearing in ceremony or at the very least at one of the balls.

Ernesto Cullari has introduced me to his contacts at Disney.  Their talent scout thinks I can be the next Angela Lansbury, who according to Disney’s site is everyone’s cup of tea.  I could be next in line to play Mrs. Potts in the sequel and reprises of Beauty and the Beast on film and on Broadway.

In the meantime, I will be replacing the Kate Smith recording of God Bless America during the daily sunset ceremony at the Sea Gulls Nest at Sandy Hook.  Proprietor  Ed Segall is a big Pallone supporter.  Given the opportunity to serve we the people, born and unborn, with my musical talent, it is just not right to put my new employer in such an uncomfortable position.  I can see Sandy Hook from my house.”

Little, who lost the Monmouth GOP endorsement for Congress in the 6th district to Cullari, had counted on the Middlesex GOP to deliver the 200 required signatures during the convention that nominated her last Saturday, March 24.  However, at the end of the day, there was only 75 signatures.  Little collected another 135 signatures last week.  Upon learning that Cullari had filed 500 signatures with the NJ Secretary of State on Friday, including those of 120 Middlesex County GOP convention delegates, Little realized that her petition would probably not survive a challenge given the duplicate signatures.

Little’s email continued:

This is not the end of Anna’s Army, but a new beginning.  With my voice, we the people, born and unborn, can transform the culture of our country that you have been working so hard to save. 

My backup chorus will be known as Anna’s Army.  You can participate by volunteering to sing in the chorus, buying our CD’s and downloading songs from our soon to be launched website, or by making Little contributions. 

All the Little contributions you make will go to the same work they have always gone to, just in a different form.

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Cullari not deterred by GOP Split in Congressional District 6, New Jersey

East Brunswick, NJ –   On March 16, the Monmouth County GOP selected Ernesto Cullari as their choice to defeat Frank Pallone.  Saturday, March 24, the Middlesex GOP voted Anna Little to take their line, making it clear they had no intentions of keeping the party in district 6 united during the most trying election cycle of our time.  

As of two weeks ago, Little was fiercely running for US Senate against Joe Kyrillos.  She campaigned by asking for donations and signatures from supporters.   Knowing her obvious failure, Little then decided to run against newcomer Ernesto Cullari.  Her decision came just days after Cullari’s announcement.

In 2010, Little was defeated by over 10% by incumbent Democrat, Frank Pallone. 

“It’s a shame we are dealing with a split line in District 6.  With the ballot having Obama on top this year, it would have been better for the Middlesex GOP to unite through the primary.  On Tuesday, June 5th the voters in both counties will decide which Republican they want to represent them against Frank Pallone.  After Anna Little’s approximate 10% loss in 2010, and failed U.S. Senate run, I think the choice will be clear to them.  Ernesto Cullari is focused on one thing; beating Frank Pallone in November and returning the position to the constituency of district 6”, said, Charles Measley, Campaign Manager.

“My team and I are undeterred that the Middlesex County GOP did not vote in our favor, but this in no way means we will back down.  Monmouth County GOP has put their trust in me to defeat Frank Pallone in November and that is what I intend to do.”  Congressional Candidate, Ernesto Cullari.  

Ernesto Cullari is a businessman, medical professional, and columnist for local newspapers. Ernesto is prepared to take the fight to Jersey’s most corrupt politician and the author of “Obama-Care”, Frank Pallone. 

For more information on Cullari for Congress you can find us on facebook at facebook.com/cullariforcongress and on twitter at twitter.com/ernestocullari or visit our website at www.CullariforCongress.com.

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Little Wins Big At Middlesex GOP Convention

East Brunswick- Former Highlands Mayor Anna Little easily defeated Ernesto Cullari for the Middlesex GOP endorsement for Congress from New Jersey’s 6 district.  The final tally was 149 to 48.  The convention was held at East Brunswick High School.

Cullari was awarded the Monmouth County GOP endorsement on March 16.   The nomination will be decided by Republicans at the polls on June 5th.  The primary victor will take on Congressman Frank Pallone in the November 6 general election.

The convention unanimously endorsed State Senator Joe Kyrillos for U.S. Senator.  Assemblywoman Donna Simon was endorsed in the special election for State Assembly from the 16th legislative district.

In a three way race for two Freeholder nominations, former Superior Court Judge Roger Daley was the big winner with 319 votes.  Daley has twice previously served on the Middlesex County Freeholder Board.   Edison businessman Sam Khan won the second Freeholder nomination over North Brunswick financial consultant Carlo DiLalla.

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Just a Little Duplicity

Anna Little continues to claim support that she doesn’t have for her fledgling efforts to get on the ballot as candidate for federal office this fall.

In an email blast this morning, Little claimed she would be marching in the Highlands St. Patrick’s parade on Saturday with the Bayshore Tea Party Group.    BTPG is not marching in the parade and has not endorsed Little’s quest for the GOP nomination for Congress from the 6th District.  Little was forced to issue a retraction email and post on her facebook page.

Earlier this week, Little claimed she had the support of GOP leaders for congressional candidacy, despite the fact that she lost the Monmouth GOP endorsement to Ernesto Cullari on Friday March 16th.

Last December, Little listed endorsements she received during her 2010 congressional run on her U.S. Senate campaign website, as if they were endorsements for her ill fated Senate bid against Joe Kyrillos.

If the Middlesex County GOP endorses Little at the convention on Saturday morning, the Republican nomination for Congress in the 6th district against Frank Pallone will be split in the June primary, with Cullari the endorsed GOP candidate on Monmouth County ballots and Little the endorsed candidate on Middlesex County ballots. 

Little has the support of Middlesex County Chairman, Senator Sam Thompson, and is expected to prevail on Saturday.

Thompson and the Middlesex GOP should consider themselves forewarned.  Those who know Little best have decided not to endorse her candidacy.   The reasons listed above are just the tip of the iceberg.

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Little Announces For Congress, Claims GOP Support

Anna Little announced her candidacy for Congress from the 6th district this morning in an email blast that also sought petition signatures, campaign volunteers and donations.

Little claimed that support from unnamed “GOP leaders” was instrumental in her decision to abandon her U.S. Senate primary campaign against Joe Kyrillos in favor of a congressional campaign:

During the past week, GOP leaders have offered us their support to run in Congressional District 6. You earned this opportunity by winning the GOP Primary, off the line, in 2010. By offering us their support this year, the GOP is respecting the wishes of grass roots New Jerseyans. This is a tremendous opportunity to continue what you started in 2010.

After many meetings, planning, and discussions with grass roots patriots, we have concluded that continuing what we started in 2010, to defeat Frank Pallone, will best serve the interests of the people of the State of NJ and the grass roots conservative movement statewide.

Little lost the Monmouth County Republican endorsement for congress from the sixth district to political newcomer, Ernesto Cullari on Friday morning.  The Middlesex County GOP convenes on March 24th to award their endorsement.

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Cullari Wins The Monmouth GOP Endorsement In NJ CD-6

Political newcomer Ernesto Cullari defeated Anna Little for the Monmouth County GOP endorsement for Congress from New Jersey’s 6th district.

By a margin described as “reasonably close” the Monmouth GOP nominating committee selected Cullari, an Asbury Park businessman and conservative columnist for the triCityNews over Little, the former Freeholder, former Mayor of Highlands and the 2010 nominee for Congress against Frank Pallone.  Little defeated Diane Gooch, owner of the Two River Times and Monmouth GOP Vice Chair in the 2010 primary.

The tally was taken by voice vote followed by a show of hands.  Upon announcing Cullari the winner, Chairman Joe Oxley asked for and received a unanimous nomination by acclamation for Cullari.

The race for the nomination now heads back to Middlesex County which will hold a convention on March 24.  The Middlesex GOP screening committee endorsed Little by 27-3 earlier this week.  By rule, she will be the recommended candidate. However, the convention voters are not bound by the screening committee’s recommendation.

In 2010, the Middlesex GOP screening committee selected then Fair Haven Mayor Mike Halfacre by just less than the 2/3 margin that would have given Halfacre the formal recommendation of the committee.  Halfacre lost the convention endorsement to Scott Sipprelle after then incoming County Chairman Sam Thompson interupted Halfacre’s speech to support Sipprelle.

It is rare, but not unprecedented, that the Monmouth and Middlesex GOPs would endorse different candidates for the same office.  In the 2005 legislative primary, Middlesex County endorsed Assemblyman Joe Azzolina for reelection while Freeholder Amy Handlin was endorsed for Assembly by the Monmouth GOP.

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