Last week the Quinnipiac poll had Cory Booker up in the U.S. Senate race by 12 points and the Monmouth poll had Booker up by 13.
Steve Lonegan’s strategist and pollster Rick Shaftan told SaveJersey that their campaign’s 4 day tracking internal poll has Lonegan down only 3 points, 47%-43%, with two weeks to go before the special election on Wednesday October 16.
In my years observing and participating in New Jersey politics, it’s been rare that an internal poll has proved more accurate than the normally reliable Monmouth or Quinnipiac polls. Adam Geller is the only partisan pollster who I would give more credence to than the best of the independents.
This time could be different. There is no historical model for predicting how voters will behave on the third Wednesday in October. There is also no model for predicting how voters still displaced by Superstorm Sandy will behave in the first non-primary election since their homes were destroyed. More then usual, the pollster’s assumptions and weighting impact the results.
Shaftan admits that his Democratic turnout assumptions are lower than what many others expect. He told MMM that he expects African-Americans will only be 8% of the vote in the senate elections compared to 12% in last year’s presidential election in New Jersey.
Releasing internal numbers that are substantially better than those produced by independent polls is a double edged sword. The release is intended to excite voters and to convince potential donors that their money won’t be wasted on a lost cause. On the downside, after the opposition scoffs at the numbers, they can react to them with their own ads or GOTV efforts.
TRENTON — Republican U.S. Senate candidate Steve Lonegan turned to churches and synagogues today to help get out the vote — and accused President Obama of suppressing religious freedom under the Affordable Care Act. Lonegan, a conservative activist…
U. S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid anointed Newark Mayor Cory Booker as New Jersey’s next Senator in a PBS interview last July. That was before the Special Senate Primary Booker was engaged in with Congressmen Frank Pallone, Rush Holt and Assembly Speaker Shelia Oliver.
Asked by interviewer Judy Woodruff about the absence of a black Democratic member of the Senate, Reid responded, “”Well, just hold your breath, Cory Booker’s on his way from New Jersey. That’ll happen in October.”
View the video at the 12:06 mark.
This afternoon a CNN reporter asked Reid, “If you could help one child with cancer, why wouldn’t you do it?” as a follow up to her question about why Reid isn’t letting the Senate vote on the House’s bill to fund the National Institute of Health during the government shutdown.
Reid responded, “Why would we want to do that?” and went on the insult the reporter’s intelligence.
Maybe Cory Booker’s internal polling numbers are similar to Steve Lonegan’s and show the U.S. Senate race closer than the independent polls indicate.
Booker is launching a negative ad against Steve Lonegan today, according to Politico.
Booker’s ad targets Lonegan.
Lonegan is still running against President Obama and ObamaCare.
With the Monmouth polls showing Booker’s support is shallow, that voters think that Booker is in it more for fame than service and that he’s a typical politician, Lonegan would be wise to focus on Booker’s weaknesses over the next two weeks.
Despite holding his lead within the margins of error in the Monmouth polls, Booker’s favorability rating has taken a 20 point hit since August. The percentage of those who view Booker favorably dropped 7% while those who view him unfavorably increased by 13%.
Lonegan’s overall favorability rating declined 4%. 35% said they view Lonegan favorably, up from 31% in August. 28% said they viewed Lonegan unfavorably, up 8% since August.
Lonegan’s name recognition has jumped 11% since August when 49% said they had no opinion of him. 38% said they have no opinion of him in today’s survey.
Booker has widened his lead with Independent voters from 2% in August to 6% today. Monmouth Polling Director Patrick Murray said this figure is statistically insignificant.
Lonegan has shored up his support among Republicans a bit. 83% of Republican likely voters say they will vote for Lonegan, up from 79% in August. 14% of Republicans said they would vote for Booker, down from 16% in August.
Lonegan’s strategist and pollster Rick Shaftan says his man is down by only 6%, 48-42. Shaftan thinks Booker’s shallow support in his base will translate into a lower turnout among Democratic voters than Republcans and conservatives. “Maybe I’m undercounting African-Americans who I have at 8% of the turnout,”Shaftan said, “I know others expect more. I do not.” Shaftan said that the African-American vote was 12% of the turnout in last year’s election in New Jersey.
Cory Booker’s twitter love, @LynsieLee, has stepped up her devotion to her man. She’s asking her new followers to contribute to Booker’s campaign.
Booker has lots of friends in the entertainment industry. Four employees of Lady Gaga’s agent, Atom Factory, have contributed $21,400 to Booker’s campaign.
Hook her up Cory! Make an extraordinary effort for your extraordinary friend!
BuzzFeed has the story ( if female nudity or tattoos depicting guns offend you, do not click on that link) of Booker’s professed love of Lynsie Lee (if you didn’t click on the previous link, you really don’t want to click on this one which will take you to lovely Lynsie’s tumblr page.)
Booker follows @LysnieLee on twitter. They share public and private messages in the wee hours of the morning. BuzzFeed says their cyber relationship started because they were both in a film about twitter, #ffthefilm.
Ben Dworkin, Director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics, introduces U.S. Senate candidate Steve Lonegan. September 24, 2013
GOP nominee for U.S. Senate Steve Lonegan took a break from bashing Newark Mayor Cory Booker and ObamaCare last night, and gently assaulted the psyches of the young Democratic students of Rider University in attendance at the University’s Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics Governing New Jersey presentation.
Lonegan’s personal story of raising a family and building a business in the 1980’s while going blind, was the context he set up to espouse his Libertarian philosophy and policies to the group of about 100 (mostly students) attending the event.
The Federal Reserve Bank’s quantitative easing policy of pumping $85 billion per month into the economy and keeping interest rates at record lows, was the focus of Lonegan’s remarks as he urged students to “play the hand you’re dealt” in life and avoid becoming dependent on government to solve their own, and society’s problems.
Lonegan shared how as a young man, he rejected a life of “being destined to the entitlement state”, of being sustained by disability benefits and food stamps, in order to build a successful life. “Interest rates were 10-12 percent in the 80’s, yet I was able to build a successful business and employ a lot of people, ” the candidate said, “I couldn’t do that with today’s regulations and economic policies.”
Booker has not made a public appearance in New Jersey since September 15
Republican nominee for U.S. Senate Steve Lonegan has gained significant ground over the last two weeks in his quest to replace the late Frank Lautenberg in Washington, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released this morning.
Democratic nominee, Newark Mayor Cory Booker, leads Lonegan among likely voters by 12 points,, 53%-41%, with three weeks to go before the October 16 special election.
Booker had a 35% lead over Lonegan in an August 7 poll of registered voters.
In a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll two weeks ago of likely voters, Booker was leading Lonegan by 35%.
