A Quinnipiac poll released this morning shows Governor Chris Christie’s sky high approval ratings are continuing to rise.
79% of New Jersey voters, including 70% of Republicans, approve of the verbal lashing Christie gave to House Speaker John Boehner and the Republican House over the delay in emergency funding for the Hurricane Sandy recovery. Voters approve of the overall job that Christie is doing my a measure of 74%-21%. 94% approve of Christie’s overall response to Hurricane Sandy.
But, if the election was held today, Christie’s down ballot coattails would be weak. By 48%-39%, New Jersey voters want the Democratic Party to retain control of the State Legislature, despite the Legislature’s weak approval ratings.
Only 40% approve of the job the State Senate is doing. 37% approve of the Assembly’s performance.
30% approve of Senate President Steve Sweeney’s performance, 25% disapprove and 45% don’t know enough to say. Only 21% approve of Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver’s performance, 18% disapprove and 61% don’t know enough to say.
In the race, or lack thereof, for the Democratic nomination for governor, former Acting Governor Richard Codey would easily win a primary over Senator Barbara Buono, the only declared candidate. Despite Monmouth County Democratic Chairman Vin Gopal’s strong support, Buono would only receive 10% of primary votes. Sweeney also gets 10%, but Codey gets 28%. 45% don’t know how they would vote.
Christie easily beats all Democratic challengers, 2-1 or better. Christie gets 35% of the Democratic vote.
In the 2014 race for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senator, Newark Mayor Cory Booker returns the spanking by beating Senator Frank Lautenberg 51%-30%. Most voters like the job that Lautenberg is doing, but think he is too old.
A Quinnipiac poll released this morning indicates that Governor Christie’s approval numbers remain strong among New Jersey voters…53% approve of his performance compared to 42% that do not….and that Christie would have been reelected if Newark Mayor Cory Booker was his Democratic opponent and the gubernatorial election was held last week when the poll was taken.
That’s good news for Christie, the NJ GOP and New Jersey taxpayers. Yet, in their write up of the poll, Quinnipiac did their best to spin the poll as a negative for Christie and the lazy main stream media is so far following that lead.
While 58 percent of New Jersey voters watched Gov. Christopher Christie’ keynote speech at the Republican National Convention, only 22 percent of voters say it makes them think more favorably of the governor, whose 53 – 42 percent job approval rating is barely changed, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
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“If Gov. Christopher Christie’s speech marked the opening of a 2016 presidential campaign he might want to try again. People who like the governor liked the speech; those who don’t didn’t. The net result – zero,” said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
Quinnipiac surveyed 1560 registered voters from August 27-September 2. Christie delivered the keynote address at the Republican National Convention late in the evening on August 28. The Bobcats pollsters didn’t start asking about Christie’s speech until the third day of the seven day poll.
While showing their own biases, the Bobcats purported to measure New Jersey voters’ prejudices regarding offices seekers’ gender, race, creed, sexual orientation and waste line.
The numbers say that New Jersey is accepting of most. In the poll that has a margin of error of +/- 2.5%, 3% said they would be less inclined to vote for a female candidate while 10% would be more likely to vote for a female. 4% said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who was African-American and 1% would be less likely to do so. 11% would be less likely to vote for a homosexual and 1% would be more likely.
Atheists and Muslims did not fare as well. 39% would be less likely to vote for an atheist, 1% would be more likely.
15% said they would be less likely to vote for an obese candidate, 1% would be more likely to vote for the big boned.
Does this mean that we should adjust Governor Chirstie’s numbers? Would his numbers be 14% higher if he was svelte? No, it doesn’t mean that. It means that this poll is seriously flawed. It reveals more about the pollsters than it does about those being surveyed.
In a Quinnipac University poll released this morning, New Jersey voters indicate that they approve of the job the governor is doing by 54%-39%, the same margin the Christie scored in the university’s May poll.
Christie’s situation on the Seaside Heights boardwalk does not seem to have cost him likability points. Asked if they liked or didn’t like Christie, regardless of his policies, 55% of voters like him, to 35% who don’t. In May 57% said they liked him to 31% who said they didn’t.
Despite liking and approving of the governor, and not liking or approving of the legislature, more voters agree with the Democratic legislature that New Jersey should wait until state revenue figures improve before a tax cut is approved. 49% say to wait for the revenues. 43% say cut taxes now.
While New Jersey likes Christie and approves of the job he is doing, 53% think he would be a bad choice to be Mitt Romney’s running mate. 40% think he would be a good Veep choice.
New Quinnipiac University poll shows him under the all-important 50 percent mark for incumbents
Middletown, May 16… A Quinnipiac University poll released today confirmed Menendez’s worst fear: he can’t poll above 50 percent. As an incumbent, that’s dangerous territory, that’s Jon Corzine territory.
“We’ll keep a close eye on this U.S. Senate race…Sen. Robert Menendez’s lead is far from solid… Menendez would feel a lot better if he could hit 50 percent on his approval rating…” said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
It doesn’t help that Menendez has been recently mired in scandal. A top-tier donor of his was convicted last week for illegally donating nearly $100,000 to his campaign- of which he returned only $18,000. Where is the other $80,000, Senator?
Menendez is also being asked to step aside from the Senate Banking Committee’s investigation of the MF Global collapse. This request was made following an investigatory hearing when Menendez tried to direct the focus of the investigation away from his past political ally- former New Jersey Governor MF Global CEO- Jon Corzine.
And, in an interview on MSNBC yesterday discussing the JP Morgan loss, Menendez proved again that he is trying to protect the people close to him- while expecting everyone else to play by the rules. Menendez said, “What I care about is not an individual, I care about a system. Having system controls to ensure that no matter who is at the head of a company, this can’t happen.”
It is clear Menendez doesn’t care about holding ‘individuals’ accountable. See no evil. Hear no evil. Time and again, he has proved unwilling to put his oversight role on the Senate Banking Committee above his self-serving double standard. The people of New Jersey can no longer afford to play second fiddle to Menendez’s political allies.
Last month there was something of a controversy over the veracity of the Monmouth University vs the Quinnipiac University polls rating Governor Christie’s performance. Within one week there was an 11 point swing in Christie’s approval ratings. A Quinnipiac poll indicated a sky high 59%-36% approval rating for the Guv followed a week later by a down to earth 50%-38% rating produced by a Monmouth poll. Monmouth University Polling Director Patrick Murray explained the difference by criticising the order in which Quinnipiac asked their questions while acknowledging that his poll is weighted to favor Democrats.
This morning’s Fairleigh Dickinson’s Public Mind Poll asked the Christie approval question three ways and got three different answers in the same survey.
When asked “How would you rate the job that Chris Christie is doing as governor?” 49% said excellent or good. 49% said only fair or poor and 2% were unsure.
When asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable view of Christie, 51% said very favorable or somewhat favorable, 11% said unsure or mixed and 37% said very or somewhat unfavorable.
When given only two choices, approve or disapprove, 56% approve of Christie and 33% disapprove. Only 11% were confused, mixed or unsure after taking that survey.
45% of the respondents identified themselves and Democratic or leaning that way, 23% were Independent, unsure or wouldn’t say, and 32% said they were Republican or lean that way.
34% of New Jersey voters are registered Democrats, 22% Republican and 45% are not affiliated with a major party.
Which poll is closer to reality? Quinnipiac or Monmouth?
How two respected independent pollsters could have such differing results for Governor Chris Christie’s approval ratings has been the subject of quite a bit of chatter this week since Monmouth University released their poll indicating that Christie’s ratings were 11 points lower than reported by the Qunnipiac poll released last week. Quinnipiac reported Chrisite’s approval rating at 59%-36% while Monmouth said that 50% of registered voters approve of the job that Christie’s doing compared to 38% who do not.
There’s been enough buzz about the difference that Patrick Murray, Polling Director at Monmouth, posted a piece on his blog (cross posted on Politickernj), that took a swipe at Quinnipiac for framing their approval question in such a way that Christie’s numbers would be higher. Murray said that because Quinnipiac first asked if Christie would be a good selection as a Vice Presidential nominee, respondents were more likely to give him higher marks when asked to evaluate his job performance.
Quinnipiac, on the other hand plays around with the order in which they ask the governor’s job rating question.In 8 polls over the past year, they asked Gov. Christie’s job rating as the first question in 3 cases and the 3rd question in one case.For the remaining four polls, the governor’s rating question was slotted from #10 and #13 in their questionnaire.
When it was the first question, the governor’s positive job rating was only 44% to 47%.At the number 3 slot, it was 53%.At #10 or later in the interview, it ranged from 55% to 59%. It’s worth noting that the lower poll numbers came early last year, and were either closer to or even lower than other polls conducted at that time. Hmmm.
In the most recent Quinnipiac poll, one of the questions preceding Gov. Christie’s rating presented him as a potential nominee for Vice President.In other words, the survey framed the governor as a national figure before asking voters to rate his job performance.Could this be why his rating among Republican voters in particular shot up to an astronomical 92%?
Pollsters know that job approval ratings can be impacted by the context of a poll interview.That’s why most pollsters try to place these key trend questions in the same place in every questionnaire.This increases our confidence that any changes in a politician’s ratings are due to real shifts in opinion and not an artifact of questionnaire inconsistencies.
I’m willing to venture that first naming Chris Christie as Mitt Romney’s potential running mate before asking New Jerseyans to rate their governor might have had a wee bit to do with the two polls’ divergent trends.
Mickey Carroll, Director of the Quinnipac Polling Institute, is not interested in getting into a pissing match with Murray. “Patrick Murray is a very good pollster,” Carroll said three times in a seven minute phone interview with MMM. “Every poll is different, something could have happened in the week in between the two polls,” Carroll said, “we asked the question the same way.”
When told that Murray said that Quinnipiac framed the approval question by first asking a question about Christie being a potential VP, Carroll said, “that could make a difference, but I think we asked the approval question first. Didn’t we? Patrick Murray is a good pollster, a savvy analyst and a smart guy.”
Republican strategists, who would only speak on background, were quick to criticise Murray and side with Quinnipiac.
“The Quinnipiac poll from last week showing the Governor’s job approval at 59% is closer to reality,” said one strategist who cited internal GOP numbers, “The problem with the Monmouth University poll is that it samples, ADULTS, rather than registered voters, or better still, likely voters.It is cheaper and easier to poll adults, because thereare a lot more of them and they are easier to qualify.It is harder, and more expensive, to find and poll a likely voter – especially a likely voter who votes in non-Presidential year elections.”
When told that Murray blamed the difference on how Quinnipiac framed the question, the same strategist said, “Patrick is out of his mind.”
In fairness to Murray, MMM verified that Quinnipiac and Monmouth both sample adults who then self identify as registered voters. However, on their website Quinnipiac says that they ask screening questions, plural, to determine who is a registered voter. Murray said Monmouth only asks one question to determine if a respondent is registered to vote or not. He said that 80% of his respondents tend to be voters. 78% of New Jersey adults are registered to vote.
In his blog post, Murray acknowledged that his Monmouth poll results are consistently more favorable to Democrats while Quinnipiac’s are consistently more favorable to Republicans. MMM asked Murray how that could happen consistently if both polls were using random computer generated phone numbers. “Is it how you weight the sample?” we asked. “That’s part of it,” Murray said, “the rest is that we (Monmouth) call a greater percentage of cell phones. Cell phone users tend to be younger and more Democratic.”
With that answer, that weighting his samples more heavily towards Democrats and cell phone users, Murray seemed to be confirming the Republican complaints.
“That’s fine, I’m the only one who consistently asks the trend question in the same place,” was Murray’s retort, “that’s polling 101.”
Another Republican strategist was more upset about how Murray wrote up his poll release that he was with the numbers. “Political sands are shifting?” asked the Republican.“It’s a margin of error shift!Murray sounds like he is writing press releases for the Democratic State Committee, not acting as an independent pollster from an esteemed New Jersey university.”
A third Republican scoffed at the notion of even taking Murray’s numbers seriously, pointing out how badly Monmouth Gannett polled the 2009 gubernatorial race between Chrisite, former Governor Jon Corzine and Chris Daggett. “Murray’s last poll in that election had Corzine winning by 2 points and Daggett getting 8% of the vote. Christie won by 5 points a few days later.”
MMM set out to find a Democratic strategist to weigh in on the difference between the two polls, but no one would talk to us. “Try Patrick Murray,” was the best answer we got.
UPDATE
Murray called shortly after this piece was posted to ask that if his 2009 gubernatorial results were going to be used against him, that his correct calling of the 2010 CD-6 congressional race also be mentioned.
During the 2010 congressional race, MMM analysed a Monmouth Poll that indicated Congressman Frank Pallone was leading Anna Little by 11%. MMM concluded, using Monmouth’s data, that Pallone’s lead should be 9%. Murray agreed, “your turnout assumptions are as good as mine,” he said. Things got funky when the Little campaign issued a press release announcing that Murray had revised his numbers based upon MMM’s analysis and that Pallone’s lead was then in single digits. Murray issued a release stating that his “official” numbers hadn’t changed. He issued a later poll that indicated Pallone’s lead was down to 7% and in the final days of the campaign said a Little victory “could well happen.”
When Pallone eventually won by 11%, Murray said he was right all along.
It was all great fun for MMM, except that Murray stopped taking our calls for a while.
In his call this afternoon, Murray reiterated that the primary difference between the recent Quinnipiac poll and his poll about Christie’s approval ratings, is that Quinnipiac changed their methodology by altering the order of the questions.
Regarding polling adults vs polling registered voters, Murray said he was not in the business of electing or reelecting any candidate. He said his job is to report on what New Jersey residents are thinking.
Murray also said that his “poltical sands are shifting” comment in the poll release was a reference to New Jersey Democrats who being more aggressive in how than they go after Christie than they have been in the past. It was not a reference to the public’s approval of Christie, he said.
Governor Chris Christie’s approval numbers have slipped 5% since February in a Monmouth University/NJ Press Media poll released this morning.
51% of New Jersey residents approve of the governor’s performance compared to 35% who don’t, according to the poll. Among registered voters, 50% approve of Christie and 38% do not.
In the February Monmouth Poll Christie earned a 52%-38% rating from all NJ residents and 55% to 37% from registered voters.
Today’s Monmouth Poll results are markedly different than the Quinnipiac Poll released last week which indicates that Christie is enjoying his highest approval numbers ever at 59%-36%.
One thing that is consistent between the two polls: New Jersey residents prefer Senate President Sweeney’s property tax relief plan over Governor Christie’s 10% income tax cut.
I don’t have time this morning to study the two polls to account for the difference and it’s too early to call the pollsters for comment. Anyone who can account for the difference in the polls before I get to it is welcome to do so in the comments.
