Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray released a poll yesterday that, he says, indicates New Jersey’s Congressional Republicans are “facing hurricane force winds” and that all five New Jersey Republicans in the House of Representatives have a good chance of losing this year.
“This is pretty astounding. Not only are New Jersey Democrats doing better on the generic House ballot statewide, but the shift is coming almost entirely from districts currently held by the GOP. If these results hold, we could be down to just one or two — or maybe even zero — Republican members in the state congressional delegation after November.”
The Cruz campaign’s attempt to coalesce the #NeverTrump movement around their candidate #NeverHappened. In hindsight, the attempt to position him as the establishment alternative may not have been the wisest move.
Ted Cruz entered the 2016 presidential race with a reputation as the Senate Republican conference’s enfant terrible. He ended his campaign as the establishment’s last hope to deny Donald Trump the party’s nomination. The problem is that GOP voters’ desire for a political outsider intensified just as he was making this pivot.
Exit polls conducted by the national media’s National Election Pool asked voters in 24 different contests this year whether the next president should have experience in politics or be from outside the political establishment.
Donald Trump will probably have nice things to say about the Monmouth University Poll again. Trump derided Patrick Murray’s poll last week that showed his support in Iowa slipping to Senator Ted Cruz. Previously, Trump has praised Monmouth polls that show him during well.
In a poll released today, Murray is 95% certain that Trump’s national support for the 2016 GOP Presidential nomination among Republican voters is between 36% and 46%.
Trump’s next closest competitor is Texas Senator Ted Cruz, with 9-19% support. (95% certainty). Trump’s current support is up from 28% in the October Monmouth Poll that he said nice things about.
Murray surveyed 1006 randomly selected American adults. 358 of them self-identified as Republican or Republican leaning voters.
A Monmouth University Poll released this morning puts Texas Senator Ted Cruz in the lead of the 2016 Republican Iowa Caucus with the support of 24% of Iowa voters likely to attend the February 1st caucus.
Cruz’s support appears to have come at the expense of Dr. Ben Carson, who dropped from 32% in an October Monmouth poll to 13% today. Cruz was at only 10% in November.
Donald Trump and Florida Senator Marco Rubio are within 2 points of each other for second in today’s poll. Trump has 19% and Rubio 17%.
Evangelical voters, who make up about half of the Iowa GOP caucus electorate, back Cruz (30%) over Trump (18%), Rubio (16%), and Carson (15%). In October, Carson held the advantage with this group – garnering 36% support to 18% for Trump, 12% for Cruz, and 9% for Rubio.
Cruz also has an edge among voters who call themselves tea party supporters. He commands 36% support among this group, compared to 20% for Trump, 17% for Carson, and 11% for Rubio. In October, this group gave their vote to Carson (30%) over Trump (22%), Cruz (17%), and Rubio (8%).
There is a notable gender difference among caucusgoers’ preferences. Men prefer Cruz (29%) and Trump (24%) over Rubio (12%) and Carson (12%). Women support Rubio (23%) and Cruz (19%) over Carson (15%) and Trump (14%).
Christie is tied for 7th place, will likely make the “Top Ten” debate
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Donald Trump has a 2-1 lead over his next closest competitor, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie seems assured of a spot in the “Top Ten” prime time debate sponsored by FoxNews and facebook on Thursday evening, according to a Monmouth University Poll released this morning.
Pollster Patrick Murray also found that 74% of Republican primary voters do not like the “Top Ten” debate format designed by FoxNews. 45% would prefer to see two back to back debates with the candidates selected randomly and 29% would prefer to see all candidates in one debate. Only 23% approve of the FoxNews formula.
Trump leads the 17 candidate field with 26% of the voters surveyed favoring him to be the 2016 GOP nominee. Bush is at 12.2% followed by Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker at 11.1%. Christie is tied for seventh place with Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and Florida Senator Marco Rubio at 4.4.% Ohio Governor John Kasich comfortably holds to 10th spot in the Monmouth Poll with 3.2%.
Americans do not trust Iran to live up to any nuclear agreement negotiated with the Obama Administration, according to a Monmouth University Poll released this morning. The poll was conducted July 9-12, before the final agreement was announced.
55% of registered voters polled by Monmouth said they did not trust Iran at all. 35% said they trusted them a little. 5% said they trusted Iran a lot.
Democrats have more faith in Iran than do their Republican and Independent neighbors. Only 45% of Democrats said they don’t trust Iran at all. 45% said they trusted them a little 7% trust them a lot. 71% of Republicans don’t trust Iran at all. 55% of Independents don’t trust them at all.
A new Monmouth University Poll, taken after Governor Chris Christie’s presidential announcement and released this morning, indicates that a strong majority of New Jerseyans believe that Christie has abandoned his commitment to govern the state and that he would be a bad president.
57% say Christie should resign now that he has officially entered the presidential race. 71% say Christie cannot run for president and govern effectively at the same time….”walk and chew gum”… as Christie refers to his plan.
Just 27% of New Jerseyans say Christie would make a good president. More than two-thirds (69%) say he would not. A few months ago, Christie was asked on national TV about similar poll results. He responded that survey participants told pollsters he would not make a good president because “a lot of those people…want me to stay.” Monmouth followed up with the participants in our poll and found that just 5% of those who said he would not make a good president say they gave that response because they would rather have Christie stay in New Jersey. Fully 89% of this group, though, confirmed that their answer meant they really think he would make a bad president.
“I’m not sure how the governor defines ‘a lot,’ but any common sense usage of the term would have to be significantly greater than five percent,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
