He ran for Governor last year as an Independent. MoreMonmouthMusingsbroke the story that the Democrats paid for robo calls for Daggett in the closing days of the 2009 campaign. Shameless and desperate, the Dems kept making those calls even after it was all over the news that they were paying for them and after Daggett himself condemned them for doing so.
There are plenty of signs that the Democrats are equally shameless and desperate this year as the GOP is poised to take control of the New Jersey Congressional delegation with victories in the 3rd, 6th and 12th districts.
In the 3rd district, the press has finally confirmed what everybody knew. The Democrats put a 3rd party “Tea Party” candidate on the ballot to syphon votes away from Republican Jon Runyan in order to help freshman Democratic Congressman John Adler retain his seat in a traditionally Republican district.
The biggest indicator that Scott Sipprelle is winning in the 12th district is that Rush Holt has agreed to debates. Holt doesn’t even like to take live questions from his constituents. Rush is probably taking comfort from the fact that liberal Ben Dworkin of Rider University is moderating. Dworkin proclaimed his liberalness on his facebook page until very recently. He used to be the Assistant Director of Research for NJ Democratic Assembly Office.
Who would have thought that Anna Little would have been within single digits of Frank Pallone 4 weeks before election day? Who besides me, Mike Laffey, Dwight Kehoe, Bob Gordon, Barbara Gonzalez and Brian Hegarty? Russ Cote. Maybe Mickey Gooch too. He’s got 5-1 odds on Little.
Pallone hasn’t been in a competitive race in 22 years. He cut his dirty trick budget after the primary, figuring he could cruise to victory and save is $4 million war chest for a U.S. Senate race. Now he’s resorting to buying everyone pancakes and pleading for help because, in his own words, he “can’t possibly get across the finish line on November 2nd without your continued support.”
Declaring, It’s Crunch Time and pleading, “We can’t possibly get across the finish line on November 2nd without your continued support,” Frank Pallone sent an email to both of his supporters, and the thousands of Anna Little supporters on his mailing list, begging them to join his facebook page, twitter page, to call his office and have a house party.
Phoney Palloney also wants to buy everyone pancakes on Sunday in Keansburg, before marching with him in the Long Branch Columbus Day parade.
He said that Anna Little is an out of touch, right wing, tea party approved candidate who wants to bring New Jersey back to the Bush years.
Dear Friend,It’s crunch time. We’re heading into the final weeks until Election Day. Every day my campaign is on the ground in the 6th District – talking to voters, listening to your concerns and communicating our plans for Congress to continue the progress we’re making. However, we’re up against an out-of-touch, right-wing, “tea party approved” opponent who wants to bring New Jersey back to the Bush years – when corporate interests always trumped the interests of our working families.
Can I count on you to volunteer just a few hours in these last crucial weeks to spread our positive message? There are a bunch of ways you can help our campaign – even from your laptop, mobile device or home computer. Simple things like suggesting my Facebook page to your friends or following me on Twitter show the depth of our grassroots support.
On Sunday, you can also join us for two exciting events:
Free Pancake Breakfast
Sunday, October 10th, 10:00 am
Bayshore Senior Center
100 Main Street
Keansburg, NJ
Long Branch Columbus Day Parade
Sunday, October 10th, 12:00 pm
Vantage Point Office Building
Corner of Broadway and Rt. 36
West Long Branch, NJ
Our accomplishments in Congress over the last two years are moving New Jersey and our nation forward. Together, we’ve fought for the interests of the working families on Main Street, not the fat cats on Wall Street. Whether it’s protecting our beaches and coastline from offshore drilling, investing in renewable energy sources, or protecting American jobs, we’ve always put the best interests of New Jersey’s families first.
We can’t possibly get across the finish line on November 2nd without your continued support. I hope you’ll consider volunteering in our phone banks, canvass your neighborhoods, or host a house party so we can continue moving our grassroots campaign forward. You can always call my Long Branch headquarters at 732-571-4141 anytime during the day to learn how you can pitch in during this stretch run.
Thank you,
Congressman Frank Pallone
P.S. Please forward this message to 3 people in your address book with a personal note about the stakes of this election.
October is national Domestic Violence Awareness Month and I encourage everyone to stop the silence and stop the violence. We must fight to end domestic abuse and the best way to do that is to bring it to into the light, whether we want to see it or not.
Domestic violence is a pattern of abusive behavior, but it is not just physical abuse. The National Domestic Violence Hotline states that domestic violence can be physical, emotional, sexual, economic or psychological actions that frighten, intimidate, manipulate, hurt, humiliate or injure someone.
According to statistics released by the National Coalition Against Domestic Violence (NCADV), one in four women in the United States will be a victim of domestic violence. Women represent the majority of domestic violence victims, but men can be victims as well.
Has anyone told Frank Pallone that October is Domestic Violence Awareness Month? He has yet to comment about his campaign operative slugging a 68 year old woman over campaign sign placement.
(HIGHLANDS, October 7) – Republican congressional challenger Anna Little – responding to release of a national survey indicating that the electorate’s opposition to the government takeover of healthcare enacted earlier this year is growing and hardening as the election approaches – today reminded voters in New Jersey’s 6th Congressional District that her opponent, 22-year incumbent Frank Pallone, famously claimed of the legislation, “This is not Obama’s bill. This isn’t Nancy Pelosi’s bill. This is MY bill.”
“Nancy Pelosi and Frank Pallone were wrong to enact legislation mandating a government takeover of our healthcare,” said Little. “The bill they pushed through puts a government bureaucrat between you and your family doctor, reduces patient choice, raises taxes, and cuts Medicare by $500 billion. That’s just wrong.
“What’s worse,” continued Little, “is that Frank Pallone insists it wasn’t Barack Obama’s bill, and it wasn’t Nancy Pelosi’s bill. No, he insists, it was HIS bill all along. You can see video of him claiming it was his bill right here: http://www.stoppallone.com/
“Frankly, Frank, the voters of New Jersey’s 6th Congressional District don’t care whether it was your bill or Nancy Pelosi’s bill – all they care about is that it be repealed as soon as possible,” Little continued. “And that’s exactly what I plan to do when I get to Congress next year.
“We need healthcare reform that actually puts more power in the hands of patients and their doctors, and takes it away from government bureaucrats,” said Little. “We need healthcare reform that strengthens Medicare, rather than cuts it, and we need healthcare reform that increases patient choice, rather than reduces it.
“That’s what we’re going to try to do in the next Congress, and that’s why I cannot wait to get there.
“The good news is, there’s an election in 26 days!”
Murray said,”your assumptions are as good as mine, and this is a very volatile electorate.”
Based on his revised analysis, Murray says that Frank Pallone leads Anna Little in NJ-6 by 51%-42%, a 9 point margin. That’s 3 points closer than his original analysis and 24 points closer than the All Phor Pallone newspaper’s analysis of the poll.
Murray also said that the list his used from Aristotle Inc. has approximately half of all registered voters in CD-6 as “likely voters” based on a 2 or the last four election vote as the standard. That makes a lot more sense than to 60,053 two of four number that was reported to MMM from the GOP’s records of voting history.
Meanwhile, the APP ( All Phoney Palloney?) read Patrick Murray’s poll and wrote a headline claiming that Pallone is leading Little “by nearly 2-1.” 2-1? Murray said Pallone has a 12% lead. 2-1 would be a 33% lead. 12% is not nearly 33%.
Even my own analysis on Murray’s poll has been bothering me:
Murray classifies a likely voter as someone who has voted in 2 of the last four general elections. Of the 333,519 registered voters in CD-6, 60,053 voted in 2 of the four last general elections; 23,750 (40%) Democrats, 27,791 (46%) Independents and 8,512 (14%) Republicans, according to GOP records of voter activity.
CD-6 has 333,544 registered voters. In the last five elections, an average of 157,000 people voted. The average is 144,000 if you don’t count the 2008 presidential election (254,543 voters) and the 2007 state legislative election(96,950 voters). Yet, only 60,053 people voted in 2 of the last four elections, the criteria Murray used to select “likely voters.” Granted, Murray used a different list than I did to measure who voted in 2 of the last 4 elections. If there is a wide disparity between the two, my analysis of his poll is as flawed as the APP headline. I think I’ll ask him about his list.
Incidentally, Real Clear Politics also rates the CD-3 race between Jon Runyan and John Adler as a toss up. RCP rates Scott Sipprelle’s race against Rush Holt as “Leans Dem.” I find the CD-12 rating hard to believe. I’m not on the ground in CD-12 as much as I like to be, but I wake up every morning to “I’m Scott Sipprelle and I approved this message.”
Murray said that Anna Little leads among Independents by 13%,yet is losing by 12%. Given my understanding the of the sixth district, my gut instinct was that that the race should be even closer.
Murray polled 643 “likely voters” between October 2 and 5. 53% registered Democrats, 23% Republicans and 24% Independent, according to his press release.
The actual registration make up of the district is 38% Democrat, 15% Republican and 48% Independent, as of August 25, according to Labelsandlists.com
Murray classifies a likely voter as someone who has voted in 2 of the last four general elections. Of the 333,519 registered voters in CD-6, 60,053 voted in 2 of the four last general elections; 23,750 (40%) Democrats, 27,791 (46%) Independents and 8,512 (14%) Republicans, according to GOP records of voter activity.
Of the 50, 463 registered Republicans in the district, 13, 744 voted in the primary last June. 38,266 voted in last year’s general election when we elected Governor Christie. 32, 086 voted in the 2006 mid-term election.
Of the 160,334 undeclared voters, 47,750 (30%) voted in last year’s gubernatorial election. 29,758 (18%) voted in the 2006 mid-term.
Of the 122,722 registered Democrats, 78,533 (64%) voted in 2009 and 69,449 (57%) voted in the 2006 mid-term.
Given these numbers, Murray’s “random sample” seems flawed.
Using these numbers and Murray’s margins, MMM makes the following analytical but scientifically flawed assessment of the CD -6 race:
MMM predicts that Republican turnout in the district will be slightly stronger than last years gubernatorial election turnout of 76%. Republicans are motivated and the Tea Party ground game will get them out. Look for a 78% turnout with 83% of that vote (Murray’s margin) going to Anna Little. That’s 32,670 votes for Little, 5117 votes for Pallone (Murray says that Pallone will get 13% of the Republican vote).
MMM predicts that the Independent, or undeclared, turnout will slightly weaker than last years turnout, but much stronger than the 2006 mid-term. Call it 28%, or 44,894 votes. Murray says that 51% of Independents are for Little, 38% for Pallone, and 11% undecided. Somebody smart recently said that undecideds usually break against the incumbent. I’m giving Little 8% of the undecided Independents and Pallone 3%. That comes to 26,487 votes for Little, 18,407 for Pallone.
MMM predicts a low turnout among registered Democrats in the district. 64% of Democrats came out to vote in the gubernatorial election last year and Christie still won the district. It is a safe bet that many of those D’s came out to vote against the supremely unpopular Jon Corzine. Frank Pallone does not spur the passion, pro or con, that Jon Corzine did. The 2006 mid-term was a big Democratic anti-war, anti Bush year. It was also a U.S. Senate year with Robert Menendez facing off against Tom Kean, Jr on the top of the ballot. 69,449 D’s voted in CD-6 in 2006. 51,462 voted in 2007 when the state legislature was at the top of the ticket. Those are the hard core voters. With no Senate race on the top of the ticket and without strong negative motivation ( the Iraq war and Bush), MMM predicts that only 58,000 D’s will come out to vote on November 2 in CD-6. Using Murray’s margins, 89% will vote for Frank Pallone, 51,620, 8% will vote for Anna Little, 4,640. Murray’s 3% undecided D’s will stay home.
Given all of the above, MMM has Pallone winning by 11,347 of 138,941 votes cast. An 8% margin, with 27 days to go.
Much has been made of Frank Pallone’s huge financial advantage over Anna Little. Pallone has $4 million. Little has $200K and might raise another $200K in the next few weeks. But there have been no signs that Pallone is spending his war chest. Is the money gap significant if Pallone doesn’t spend on this race and keeps hording his cash for his planned U.S. Senate race? It is to the extent that his money keeps potential Little donors holding on to theirs.
Little can close that gap by winning back the majority of the GOP voters leaning towards Pallone. I find Murray’s margin of 13% of GOP voters going for Pallone hard to believe. If Little whittles that down to 3% and wins most of the GOP undecided voters, she picks up 7065 votes.
She will then need 4,282 more Independents and 1 Democrat to win, recounts and voter irregularities in New Brunswick not withstanding.
In order to do that, Little, the GOP and the Tea Party need to increase the Independent turnout to about 35%. If that happens, Little wins.
If Little had $1 million for media buys, this wouldn’t even be a race. Murray says that 45% of the voters have no opinion of her, yet she is losing in his poll, by only 12%. Those are terrible numbers for Frank Pallone.
Little can still win this race. All it will take is another $200-300K and another 100 volunteers on the ground. Click here and make it so.
A Monmouth University Poll released today gives Congressman Frank Pallone a 53%-41% lead over Highlands Mayor Anna Little in the race for the NJ-6 congressional seat. 6% of likely voters are undecided according to the poll.
“A 12 point lead may look comfortable, but not when you consider the fact that Pallone regularly wins reelection by more than 30 points,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “District demographics are the key to this race. Little does well in independent-minded parts of the district. The question is whether it will be enough to overcome the built-in Democratic advantage here.”
Pallone and Little are basically tied 49% to 47% in the Monmouth County half of the district, but Pallone has a sizable 58% to 33% lead in the other half, which includes urban strongholds in Middlesex and Union counties.
Little actually leads by 51% to 38% among self-identified independent voters in this district, but, so far, it is not enough to overcome the Democrats more than 2-to-1 registration edge over Republicans in New Jersey’s 6th.
Congressman Frank Pallone’s job performance rating among likely voters in his district stands at 46% approve to 36% disapprove. He also garners personal ratings of 48% favorable to 32% unfavorable.
By comparison, 33% of voters give Little a favorable rating and 22% are unfavorable, with nearly half
(45%) offering no opinion on the Highlands Borough Mayor.
