Murray said,”your assumptions are as good as mine, and this is a very volatile electorate.”
Based on his revised analysis, Murray says that Frank Pallone leads Anna Little in NJ-6 by 51%-42%, a 9 point margin. That’s 3 points closer than his original analysis and 24 points closer than the All Phor Pallone newspaper’s analysis of the poll.
Murray also said that the list his used from Aristotle Inc. has approximately half of all registered voters in CD-6 as “likely voters” based on a 2 or the last four election vote as the standard. That makes a lot more sense than to 60,053 two of four number that was reported to MMM from the GOP’s records of voting history.
Meanwhile, the APP ( All Phoney Palloney?) read Patrick Murray’s poll and wrote a headline claiming that Pallone is leading Little “by nearly 2-1.” 2-1? Murray said Pallone has a 12% lead. 2-1 would be a 33% lead. 12% is not nearly 33%.
Even my own analysis on Murray’s poll has been bothering me:
Murray classifies a likely voter as someone who has voted in 2 of the last four general elections. Of the 333,519 registered voters in CD-6, 60,053 voted in 2 of the four last general elections; 23,750 (40%) Democrats, 27,791 (46%) Independents and 8,512 (14%) Republicans, according to GOP records of voter activity.
CD-6 has 333,544 registered voters. In the last five elections, an average of 157,000 people voted. The average is 144,000 if you don’t count the 2008 presidential election (254,543 voters) and the 2007 state legislative election(96,950 voters). Yet, only 60,053 people voted in 2 of the last four elections, the criteria Murray used to select “likely voters.” Granted, Murray used a different list than I did to measure who voted in 2 of the last 4 elections. If there is a wide disparity between the two, my analysis of his poll is as flawed as the APP headline. I think I’ll ask him about his list.
Incidentally, Real Clear Politics also rates the CD-3 race between Jon Runyan and John Adler as a toss up. RCP rates Scott Sipprelle’s race against Rush Holt as “Leans Dem.” I find the CD-12 rating hard to believe. I’m not on the ground in CD-12 as much as I like to be, but I wake up every morning to “I’m Scott Sipprelle and I approved this message.”
Murray said that Anna Little leads among Independents by 13%,yet is losing by 12%. Given my understanding the of the sixth district, my gut instinct was that that the race should be even closer.
Murray polled 643 “likely voters” between October 2 and 5. 53% registered Democrats, 23% Republicans and 24% Independent, according to his press release.
The actual registration make up of the district is 38% Democrat, 15% Republican and 48% Independent, as of August 25, according to Labelsandlists.com
Murray classifies a likely voter as someone who has voted in 2 of the last four general elections. Of the 333,519 registered voters in CD-6, 60,053 voted in 2 of the four last general elections; 23,750 (40%) Democrats, 27,791 (46%) Independents and 8,512 (14%) Republicans, according to GOP records of voter activity.
Of the 50, 463 registered Republicans in the district, 13, 744 voted in the primary last June. 38,266 voted in last year’s general election when we elected Governor Christie. 32, 086 voted in the 2006 mid-term election.
Of the 160,334 undeclared voters, 47,750 (30%) voted in last year’s gubernatorial election. 29,758 (18%) voted in the 2006 mid-term.
Of the 122,722 registered Democrats, 78,533 (64%) voted in 2009 and 69,449 (57%) voted in the 2006 mid-term.
Given these numbers, Murray’s “random sample” seems flawed.
Using these numbers and Murray’s margins, MMM makes the following analytical but scientifically flawed assessment of the CD -6 race:
MMM predicts that Republican turnout in the district will be slightly stronger than last years gubernatorial election turnout of 76%. Republicans are motivated and the Tea Party ground game will get them out. Look for a 78% turnout with 83% of that vote (Murray’s margin) going to Anna Little. That’s 32,670 votes for Little, 5117 votes for Pallone (Murray says that Pallone will get 13% of the Republican vote).
MMM predicts that the Independent, or undeclared, turnout will slightly weaker than last years turnout, but much stronger than the 2006 mid-term. Call it 28%, or 44,894 votes. Murray says that 51% of Independents are for Little, 38% for Pallone, and 11% undecided. Somebody smart recently said that undecideds usually break against the incumbent. I’m giving Little 8% of the undecided Independents and Pallone 3%. That comes to 26,487 votes for Little, 18,407 for Pallone.
MMM predicts a low turnout among registered Democrats in the district. 64% of Democrats came out to vote in the gubernatorial election last year and Christie still won the district. It is a safe bet that many of those D’s came out to vote against the supremely unpopular Jon Corzine. Frank Pallone does not spur the passion, pro or con, that Jon Corzine did. The 2006 mid-term was a big Democratic anti-war, anti Bush year. It was also a U.S. Senate year with Robert Menendez facing off against Tom Kean, Jr on the top of the ballot. 69,449 D’s voted in CD-6 in 2006. 51,462 voted in 2007 when the state legislature was at the top of the ticket. Those are the hard core voters. With no Senate race on the top of the ticket and without strong negative motivation ( the Iraq war and Bush), MMM predicts that only 58,000 D’s will come out to vote on November 2 in CD-6. Using Murray’s margins, 89% will vote for Frank Pallone, 51,620, 8% will vote for Anna Little, 4,640. Murray’s 3% undecided D’s will stay home.
Given all of the above, MMM has Pallone winning by 11,347 of 138,941 votes cast. An 8% margin, with 27 days to go.
Much has been made of Frank Pallone’s huge financial advantage over Anna Little. Pallone has $4 million. Little has $200K and might raise another $200K in the next few weeks. But there have been no signs that Pallone is spending his war chest. Is the money gap significant if Pallone doesn’t spend on this race and keeps hording his cash for his planned U.S. Senate race? It is to the extent that his money keeps potential Little donors holding on to theirs.
Little can close that gap by winning back the majority of the GOP voters leaning towards Pallone. I find Murray’s margin of 13% of GOP voters going for Pallone hard to believe. If Little whittles that down to 3% and wins most of the GOP undecided voters, she picks up 7065 votes.
She will then need 4,282 more Independents and 1 Democrat to win, recounts and voter irregularities in New Brunswick not withstanding.
In order to do that, Little, the GOP and the Tea Party need to increase the Independent turnout to about 35%. If that happens, Little wins.
If Little had $1 million for media buys, this wouldn’t even be a race. Murray says that 45% of the voters have no opinion of her, yet she is losing in his poll, by only 12%. Those are terrible numbers for Frank Pallone.
Little can still win this race. All it will take is another $200-300K and another 100 volunteers on the ground. Click here and make it so.
A Monmouth University Poll released today gives Congressman Frank Pallone a 53%-41% lead over Highlands Mayor Anna Little in the race for the NJ-6 congressional seat. 6% of likely voters are undecided according to the poll.
“A 12 point lead may look comfortable, but not when you consider the fact that Pallone regularly wins reelection by more than 30 points,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “District demographics are the key to this race. Little does well in independent-minded parts of the district. The question is whether it will be enough to overcome the built-in Democratic advantage here.”
Pallone and Little are basically tied 49% to 47% in the Monmouth County half of the district, but Pallone has a sizable 58% to 33% lead in the other half, which includes urban strongholds in Middlesex and Union counties.
Little actually leads by 51% to 38% among self-identified independent voters in this district, but, so far, it is not enough to overcome the Democrats more than 2-to-1 registration edge over Republicans in New Jersey’s 6th.
Congressman Frank Pallone’s job performance rating among likely voters in his district stands at 46% approve to 36% disapprove. He also garners personal ratings of 48% favorable to 32% unfavorable.
By comparison, 33% of voters give Little a favorable rating and 22% are unfavorable, with nearly half
(45%) offering no opinion on the Highlands Borough Mayor.
It’s been a week and Pallone is still silent on his operative assaulting a 68 year old woman
Frank Pallone talks a good game when it comes to violence against women. He was a co-sponsor of Violence Against Women Act of 1999 , which never became law. In September of 2009 he announced that the Justice Department gave a $250K grant to Manavi, Incorporated, a New Brunswick-based women’s rights organization that works to end all forms of violence against South Asian women living in the U.S.
In the last week Phoney Palloney has managed to tweet about the GOP’s antipathy towards high speed rails, the pea soup at the Highlands Oktoberfest, homecoming at Rutgers and the New York Times.
Nothing about his long time friend slugging a 68 year old woman over campaign sign placement.
On the left, the State Democratic Party released a video trying to knock the Governor’s rising approval ratings down a peg or two. It’s not working.
On the self-proclaimed right, Paul Mulshine and Steve Lonegan knock Christie, and the national conservatives who have embraced the Governor, every chance they make. That’s not working either.
Detractors of Christie’s policies, on both the left and the right, would have much more success if they argued their issues on the merits, rather than personally attacking. If their issues, and not their political agendas were what they really cared about.
Like so many in the media elite, Stile doesn’t understand the Tea Party. We’ll find out on November 2 if they are the “Fringe” party. I don’t think we are. As the Republican Party establishment has been shocked by the wave that the real mainstream, as represented by the Tea Party, has made throughout the primary season, I think Stile and the rest of the media elite are going to be shocked on November 2. They will find that it is they that are on the fringe and have been for quite sometime.
There’s a better chance of seeing Governor Christie mingling with President Obama at the private dinner reception in Cresskill on Wednesday than finding him on stage with Sarah Palin or any other Tea Party gathering, for that matter.
The pugnacious, rant-and-ramble governor may sound like a Tea Party activist from time to time, and Glen Beck may be smitten with a severe case of political man-love, but in reality Christie wants as little to do with them as possible. He prefers the high ground of the GOP establishment, perched at a safe distance from the roiling Tea Party tide.
I didn’t know that the President was dining in Creskill tomorrow night. Attention Bergen County readers: avoid Knickerbocker Rd.
Christie may not be a Tea Party celebrity like Sarah Palin or Glen Beck. But he gets it. His “Put Up or Shut Up” message to the GOP establishment is what will bring the GOP and the Tea Party together. Palin and Beck may be the instigators on the fringe. Christie is the bridge.
Stile doesn’t get Christie anymore than he gets the Tea Party. “Put up or shut up” are not the words of someone who “prefers the high ground of the GOP establishment, perched at a safe distance from the roiling Tea Party tide.”
Pundits of every persuasion are trying to put Chrisite in a box. He’s not conservative enough for Mulshine or Lonegan, so he must be a RINO. He’s not as strident in his language as Palin or Beck so he must be establishment, a Whitman Republican.
Christie can’t be put into a box because he is not an ideologue. He doesn’t just think outside the box. As we have seen with his Education Reform Agenda, he breaks the box.
When Christie was seeking the GOP gubernatorial nomination last year he said that while he is his own man, two of his heroes or role models were Ronald Reagan and Tom Kean, Sr. When we discussed that in April of 09, I admit that I was skeptical. Having watch him govern for 9 months, his description of how he would govern makes a lot more sense to me than it did at the time.
If this very funny video, courtesy of NJ.com , Christie describes how it is that he managed to balance the budget with a 9% spending decrease and no new taxes.
(HIGHLANDS, October 5. 2010) – Republican congressional challenger Anna Little yesterday afternoon received the, “Honorary Guardian of Seniors’ Rights” from James L. Martin, Chairman of the 60 Plus Association.
“Anna Little is going to Washington to fight for America’s seniors”, said Martin, Chairman of the 5.5 million strong seniors organization that many refer to as “the conservative alternative to the AARP.” “Anna knows that cutting 500 billion dollars from Medicare – – – as Obama care intends to do-is wrong. She knows as well that piling of trillions and trillions of debt on our children and grandchildren is not something seniors want to do. We at the 60 Plus Association are pleased and privileged to give Anna Little our Guardian of Senior Rights Award and we look forward to working with her in the next Congress to enact a truly, Seniors’ friendly legislative agenda.”
“I am honored to receive this award,” said Little. For almost two decades now, 60 plus has been fighting the good fight in Washington on behalf of America’s seniors. Whether it was fighting for lower taxes, or fighting to stop the debt, or fighting to prevent a government takeover of healthcare, sixty plus has been leading the charge.
“I look forward to working with Jim Martin and 60 plus when I get to Congress,” said Little.
Martin presented the award this afternoon at an event at the Bayshore Senior Center. In attendance, were more than 100 local seniors who had come out see the presentation and voice their support for Anna Little for Congress.
“It’s always wonderful to have a chance to spend time with NJ’s seniors,” said Little. “They have seen so much, and they are always happy to share the wisdom gained through life’s experience. All over the district, seniors are terrified that their children and grandchildren are going to be burdened with tens of trillions of dollars of debt – that will take generations to pay off. That’s why seniors are some of our campaign supporters and most dedicated volunteers.”
“Anna’s right,” said Martin. “But, it is not just here in NJ. It is all over America – Seniors are rejecting Nancy Pelosi’s agenda.”
Anna Little receives “Honorary Guardian of Seniors’ Rights” from 60 Plus president James L. Martin
Red Bank, NJ- (Monday, October 4th, 2010) 6th District Congressional Candidate, Anna Little, announced today the grand opening of a new campaign headquarters located at 64C Bridge Street in Red Bank, NJ, across from the historic Red Bank Train Station. Little, the Mayor of Highlands and former Freeholder will be gathering with Red Bank business merchants, property owners/landlords, and town residents, at a ribbon cutting ceremony scheduled for 6:00 PM. on Thursday, 10/7.
A reception immediately following the ceremony will take place at the restaurant TASTE, located in The Galleria, just a few doors north of the new headquarters location.
