Ian Linker is the only declared candidate for the GOP nomination for the U.S. Senate race against Senator Robert Menendez next year. If Linker gets enough signatures to get on the primary ballot he is likely to face State Senators Joe Kyrillos and Mike Doherty in a race for the nomination. Former Roxbury Mayor Tim Smith is also acting like a potential candidate.
We had a good conversation with Ian, challenging him on why he is starting his political career at such a high level and on his fund raising ability. I’ll say this for Linker, the $3950 he’s raised so far is more money than Anna Little has raised in her fledgling quest for a rematch against Frank Pallone.
I don’t believe that Linker has a remote chance to be the nominee, and I told him so. I even bet him dinner at any restaurant in the country, including travel expenses, that he would not win the party line from any county in the state for the primary. He took the bet (after the show via facebook), which proves to me he’s gotten in over his head. I’m looking forward to dinner at Latitudes in Sunset Key on Linker.
Yet, I give Ian a great deal of credit for entering the arena and fighting to make a difference. I hope his passion survives the ordeal he has chosen.
Listen to the first half hour of the show. Maybe I’m wrong about Linker.
During the second half hour Oceanport Councilman Joe Irace joined us with an enlightening and informative conservation that included comments on the utter lack of representation Monmouth County gets in the House of Representation from Frank Pallone and Rush Holt, the difference Irace and his colleagues on the Oceanport governing body were able to make, with the help of Senator Jennifer Beck, regarding the establishment of the Fort Monmouth Redevelopment Authority, and the predicament New Jersey’s Horse Racing Industry and Monmouth Park in particular face in these challenging economic times.
Irace makes a compelling case for VLT’s, slots, in the Meadowlands.
Enjoy the show.
Next week, Tuesday the 30th between 5PM and 6PM, our guest will be political strategist Mike DuHaime. DuHaime is to Governor Christie as Karl Rove was to President George W. Bush and David Axlerod is to President Barack Obama.
We’ll be talking about the 2012 presidential race. You won’t want to miss that show which will be broadcast on WIFI AM 1460 and on the Internet here.
The LaRossa and Gallagher: Real Jersey Guys On The Radio Show featuring former Senator Dick LaRossa and Art Gallagher is sponsored by Repatriot Radio.
Ian Linker is the only declared Republican candidate for the nomination to challenge U.S. Senator Robert Menendez in the 2012 election. The attorney who resides in Bergen County wrote an Op-Ed piece on education reform that goes a step further than State Senator Mike Doherty’s proposal in bringing equality to New Jersey’s education funding.
Linker is embracing the the New Jersey Parental Rights Act, legislation sponsored by Morris County Assemblymen Anthony Bucco and Michael Patrick Carroll which would grant scholarships or vouchers directly to parents of school age children to use at the school of their choice. Linker is also calling for the elimination of teacher tenure and wasteful duplication is school administration.
Former Senator Dick LaRossa and I will be talking to Linker about his proposal and his candidacy for U.S. Senate.
Oceanport Councilman Joe Irace is probably the best known councilman in Monmouth County, if not all of New Jersey. Without a doubt he is the best know councilman in Trenton. Unlike many politicians, the media savy Irace does not use his social media and public relations skills to promote himself. He uses the media to generate support for and interest in the multitude of challenges that the small Borough of Oecanport has faced since he has been an elected official. From Fort Monmouth to Monmouth Park and the Horse Racing Industry, Irace is an effective and outspoken leader for the interests of Oceanport. He has stood up to and often frustrated powerful special interests and Trenton insiders.
Irace will be joining us at 5:30 for the second half hour of the show.
The LaRossa and Gallagher: Real Jersey Guys On The Radio Show is broadcast every Tuesday from 5PM till 6PM on WIFI 1460 AM and on the Internet here. The show is sponsored by Repatriot Radio.
You are welcome to join the show with your questions and comments. The numbers to call in our 609-447-0236 and 609-447-0237.
A Quinnipiac poll released this morning indicates that Governor Chris Christie’s approval numbers have rebounded since their June 21 poll. Today New Jersey narrowly approves of the Governor’s performance, 47%-46%. In June Christies’s approval rating was upside down, 44%-47%.
“By a 50-35 percent margin, New Jersey voters like Gov. Christie as a person,” said the Quinnipiac release.
As opposed to what? An alien? A pet? A superhero? Christie did not have to provide a copy of his birth certificate to earn that popularity.
Obama in trouble
President Obama’s approval ratings have taken a huge 10 point negative swing in New Jersey since the June 21 Quinnipiac poll.
In June New Jersey voters approved of the President’s performance, 50-46 percent. Today New Jersey voters disapprove of how the President is doing his job by 52-44 percent. These are Obama’s worst numbers ever in New Jersey.
Unless Obama’s New Jersey numbers improve, Senator Robert Menendez’s reelection prospects are in jeopardy. Menendez’s numbers have been anemic and are declining. In June only 45% of NJ voters approved of Menendez vs 38% who disapproved. Today 39% approve vs 42% who disapprove. Only 41% say Menendez deserves to be reelected vs 43% say he does not. Yet, by a 45-39 percent margin voters say they would back him over an unnamed Republican. Republicans need to nominate a named candidate.
Senate President Stephen Sweeney and Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver should thank the Lord that their positions are not subject to a statewide ballot.
Sweeney’s numbers are 23% approve to 40% disapprove. He has suffered a 10 point drop since June.
Oliver fares better only because 54% of New Jersey voters don’t know who she is. 21% of voters approve of the Speaker’s performance and 25% disapprove. Oliver has suffered a 6 point drop since June.
Gender Gap
Men approve of Christie 58-36 percent while woman disapprove of him 55-37 percent.
Women approve of Obama 51-44 percent. Men disapprove 60-37 percent.
MMM accepts responsibility for the gender gap. According to the web tracking site alexa.com, MMM’s audience is overwhelmingly men with children and graduate degrees. We need a female writer or two.
Giving credit where it is do, The Asbury Park Press Editorial Board got one right in their recent editorial lamenting the closure of Fort Monmouth’s commissary. They give a quick summary of the disaster the closure of Fort Monmouth is and how the entire BRAC decision to close the fort was based on faulting economic and home security data.
Fort Monmouth’s closure and the move of its operations to Aberdeen Maryland was a huge waste of money that compromised national security. An investigative series by Asbury Park Press reporters Bill Bowman and Keith Brown (which is no longer linkable) documented the waste and fraudulent numbers that BRAC gave Congress to justify the closure.
In their editorial, The Asbury Park Press accurately lays the blame:
The closing of the base was based on faulty economic and security research in the first place, and yet even with the facts on their side, Reps Frank Pallone and Rush Holt, along with Sens. Lautenberg and Menendez could not carry the day.
That is largely due to the fact that the faulty economic and security data was uncovered by Bowman and Brown after Congress had already voted to close the fort. Pallone, Holt, Lautenberg and Menendez didn’t have the juice to uncover that data before or during the BRAC hearings when it might have made a difference. Worse, the didn’t have the juice needed with their congressional colleagues to keep the fort in New Jersey. Maryland’s delegation had the juice.
This latest insulting failure is just one in a decades, maybe centuries, long example of ineffective congressional representation from New Jersey. Not just Pallone, Holt, Lautenberg and Menendez, but most of the delegation. Every two years during congressional elections challengers complain that New Jersey only gets a fraction of the money we send to Washington sent back, but it never changes. Has there ever been a House Speaker from New Jersey? Name on U.S. Senator from New Jersey who could be considered a historic figure.
As Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray indicated during his interview on the LaRossa and Gallagher Radio Showtwo weeks ago, New Jersey Congressmen have little incentive to represent the interests or philosophies of their constituents. They vote how ever they want and work on, or don’t work on, whatever they want without regard for the good of their constituents because no matter what they do, their jobs are safe. Historically, gerrymandering as assured that an incumbent member of congress will be reelected time after time except in the rarest or circumstances.
A competitive congressional district map could go a long way to improving the quality of representation New Jersey gets from the people we send to Washington. Currently, Congressmen face no consequences for failures like the BRACing of Fort Monmouth. Despite the rants of congressional challengers every two years about the about of money that New Jersey sends to Washington vs the amount of money that comes back, that situation never changes and our representitives have little incentive to work to change it.
If competitive congressional elections were the norm, rather than a rare exception, New Jersey would get better representation and better results.
New Jersey’s Redistricting Commission has a huge opportunity to create an environment that could lead to an major improvement in the quality of our representation in Washington over the next decade. If past is prelude, the Democrats and Republicans on the commission will spend the process jockeying for influence with the “13th tie breaking” member. The commission will predictably produce a winning map for one party which will be a losing map for the other party.
For New Jersey to have a “winning map” would require at least one party to propose a competitive map based upon population and geography only without regard for the residency of incumbents or the historical voting trends of residents, and for the “13th member,” former Attorney General and Acting Governor for ninety minutes, John Farmer Jr, to do the right thing.
Otherwise, it won’t really matter much which party “wins” the redistricting battle. New Jersey’s representation in Washington will not likely improve if the people will send there have little incentive to work for it.
By the way, Lautenberg and Pallone are scheduled to make a “surprise announcement” in Belmar tomorrow.
Pray for rain.
Maybe Lautenberg is announcing his retirement and endorsing Pallone to replace him. Not likely, but one can hope.
More likely they will announce some legislation they are sponsoring that will probably never become law or some appropriation they are proposing or maybe even secured that will not have nearly postive impact on New Jersey that the negative impact that the closure of Fort Monmouth will have.
In an email to “Members and Friends,” Don Adams, President of the Independence Hall Tea Party PAC, declared that the PAC’s favorite candidate to challenge U.S. Senator Robert Menendez is Anna Little:
Independence Hall Tea Party PAC
July 25, 2011
Dear Members and Friends,
Not surprisingly, all five of the region’s Democrat US Senators voted against the Cut, Cap, and Balance Act this past Friday.
The real surprise is that we let them get away with it. Three of the five are up for
re-election in 2012–Bob Casey (D-PA), Tom Carper (D-DE), and Bob Menendez (D-NJ).
In New Jersey, several strong candidates have been mentioned as possible opponents to the tax loving, spendaholic Bob Menendez.
Our favorite is Anna Little. As a PAC endorsed candidate, Anna won an upset primary victory in the 2012 New Jersey 6th Congressional District race. She then narrowly lost the General Election to incumbent Democrat Frank Pallone in a district where Democrats largely outnumber Republicans.
Anna has been planning a rematch against Pallone, but PAC members have been discussing a Draft Anna Little for US Senate campaign.
Anna is an ideal senate candidate. She is articulate, charismatic, knowledgeable, and conservative. She has prior elective experience, serving as a Monmouth County Freeholder and Mayor of Highlands, NJ. She speaks fluent Spanish, and, if elected, would become the state’s first female US Senator.
If you agree with the draft Anna Little campaign, you’ll have an opportunity to tell Anna, yourself, at a luncheon withGrover Norquist of Americans for Tax Reform.
Lunch with Grover Norquist
When: Tuesday, July 26, 12 Noon-2 PM
Where: Iberia Restaurant, Iberia Peninsular, 63-69 Ferry Street, Newark, NJ 07105 Host: Anna Little
Also, meet Bruce Gardner and Beverly Elliott of TEA for Education, a national organization.
Costs:You are responsible for your ala carte meal. Anna Little Campaign
Contribution strongly recommended.
On behalf of the PAC Board of Delegates,
Don Adams, President
If you are unable to make lunch in Newark tomorrow, feel free to express your thoughts on the idea of Little running for U.S. Senate next year here in the comments. I’m sure the word will get back to her.
Personally, I think Little should hold out for the Vice Presidential nomination. If elected, she would be the first female Vice President of the United States that speaks fluent Spanish, was a Monmouth County Freeholder, Mayor of Highlands, and who lost to Frank Pallone.
Bio-tech entrepreneur and Navy intelligence reservist John Crowley will not be a candidate for the GOP nomination to challenge Senator Robert Menendez next year, according to his friend and political adviser Bill Spadea speaking to Politickernj.
Crowley stepped down as CEO of the firm he founded, Amicus Theraputics, in April in order to focus on “public policy, civic service and philanthropic endeavors.” An “unnamed political adviser,” said at the time that Crowley was likely to compete for the 2012 U.S. Senate nomination.
Earlier today Amicus announced that Crowley would be returning as CEO in August after his reserve duty with Naval Intelligence.
Last weekend The Star Ledger’sAuditor reported that someone was anonymously circulating opposition research about Crowely in an attempt to thrwart his candidacy. Spadea told MMM that the Auditor piece had no impact on Crowley’s decision not to run, “if anything it was just the opposite.” Spadea said that a Senate run “was not possible given the weight of John’s commitments to his family, to bringing new drugs to market and to the military.”
At this early stage, the Republican contest to challenge Menendez is shaping up to be a race between State Senators Joe Kyrillos (Monmouth) and Mike Doherty (Warren).
State Senator Joe Kyrillos has set up an exploratory committee for a possible U.S. Senate run in 2012 against Robert Menendez or 2014 against Frank Lautenberg, an unnamed source told Politickernj.
An exploratory committee, or “testing the waters fund” may raise and spend over the $5,000 threshold that requires candidate reporting on polling, travel and other activities designed to gauge the level of support for a candidate for federal office, according to the Federal Election Commission.
Kyrillos has yet to respond to a message from MMM to comment on the Politickernj story.
A source with knowledge of Kyrillos’ plans confirmed that Monmouth County’s senior legislator will issue a statement announcing the exploratory committee today.
The members of the Redistricting Commission must be appointed by June 15. The Auditor says he/she was told that Democratic State Chairman John Wisniewski plans to void the appointment of Belmar resident Maggie Moran to the commission. Moran, former Governor Corzine’s deputy chief of staff and campaign manager, was appointed to the commission by former Chairman Joe Cryan, at Pallone’s urging, as one of Cryan’s last acts before turning the chairmanship over to Wisniewski.
Moran, who is the wife of Belmar Mayor Matt Doherty, is supposed to be Pallone’s eyes and ears on the commission. Her removal would be a blow to Pallone, according to The Auditor, this year in particular as New Jersey is losing a congressional district. One incumbent congressman will lose his job regardless of the electoral outcome. The Auditor implies that Democratic boss George Norcross and Republican Governor Chris Christie would like that incumbent to be Pallone.
How would that work?
Pallone’s 6th district borders the 4th, 7th, 12th and 13th districts. He resides in Long Branch which is in the south east coastal part of the district.
While it is entirely possible in New Jersey that a gerrymandered district that includes Long Branch of Monmouth County could be combined with Clinton Township in Hunterdon County, home of 7th district Republican Congressman Leonard Lance or West New York, Hudson County, home of 13th district Democratic Congressman Albio Sires, neither scenario is likely.
Combining Pallone’s 6th with Rush Holt’s 12th would make sense based on geography as the 12th shares the largest border with the 6th. Even though neither Pallone or Holt is particularly well liked by Democratic leaders in New Jersey or Washington, it is unlikely that the Democrats would surrender a district without a fight.
Which would leave a match up between New Jersey’s two most senior congressmen, Pallone who has been in Congress since 1988 and 4th district Congressman Republican Chris Smith who has served since 1981. While it would be unusual that seniority be discarded as an incumbent protection consideration during a redistricting battle, an argument could be made along the lines of “continuity of representation.” Pallone first went to Congress as the representative of the 3rd district after the death of Congressman James Howard. Much of the pre-1992 3rd district is now part of the 4th.
Even with his $4 million war chest, it is hard to imagine Pallone beating Smith in a combined district that includes southeast Monmouth and portions of Republican Ocean and Burlington counties. Smith would dominate in his Mercer home turf.
Pallone vs. Smith would be a great race. It probably won’t happen. I’ll explain why at the end of this piece. But first let’s have some fun speculating about the fallout of such a district.
If Long Branch and Pallone are moved south into a district combined with portions of Smith’s (of Hamilton in Mercer County) 4th district, it would make sense that the Northern Monmouth portions of the present 6th district would be folded into the Rush Holt’s 12th district.
That would create an interesting race for the GOP nomination in the 12th. Diane Gooch, Mike Halfacre, Anna Little, and Scott Sipprelle could all be contenders for that nomination.
Little beat Gooch for the 6th district nomination primary by 83 votes before losing to Pallone by 11% in the 2010 general election. She declared that a loss of only 11% was a victory and launched her 2012 race against Pallone in the weirdest election night concession speech ever. Since election night 2010 Little has alienated herself from both her local Tea Party and establishment GOP supporters. She’s chomping at the bit for a rematch with both Gooch and Pallone, but she’s referred to as a “coo coo bird” by former supporters. A Pallone-Smith match up would wreck havoc on her delusions. Only Little, her family and Larry Cirignano, her escort/handler/manager/driver/tenant, believe Anna Little will ever be nominated for congress again.
Halfacre, the Mayor of Fair Haven, has been kicking himself for bowing out of the race for the 12th district nomination since Tea Party candidate David Corsi beat Sipprelle in Monmouth County in the 2010 primary. Sipprelle won the nomination by virtue of his margin of victory in Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset and Hunterdon before losing to Holt by 7% in the general.
Halfacre was the Tea Party favorite during his contentious race against Sipprelle for the party lines in 2010. Sipprelle won all the county party lines and Halfacre correctly concluded that a primary against Sipprelle without at least the Monmouth or Middlesex lines was not winnable. Corsi’s Monmouth victory naturally lead to “what ifs?” Little’s narrow victory over Gooch created additional “what ifs?”
But the self funding Sipprelle did not spend any money to defeat Corsi. Gooch took victory over Little for granted in the primary. Given how contentious the Sipprelle-Halfacre county conventions/screenings were, it is likely that a primary between to two would have been bloody and expensive. Halfacre couldn’t have matched Sipprelle’s money.
Halfacre would have a heavy lift to regain his Tea Party support. If either Gooch or Sipprelle seek the nomination, he would have a heavier lift to raise the money necessary to compete. After Little’s victory in the 2010 primary, it will be a long time before any candidate or county party organization takes a Tea Party challenge for granted. Halfacre’s best hope for a nomination against Holt is for both Gooch and Sipprelle to conclude that 2012, a presidential year with Obama leading the ticket, is not the year to take on Holt.
Both Gooch and Sipprelle are staying in front of the party faithful. Gooch with Strong New Jersey and Sipprelle with the Lincoln Club of New Jersey, organizations each has founded since losing their respective races. Gooch has been open about wanting to run for congress again, depending on how the districts are drawn. Sipprelle has been coy about a future candidacy.
A Gooch-Sipprelle primary defies imagination. Given the money both could spend on such a race, a deal would likely be brokered by the state and county party chairmen before it would occur. But if ego got the better of either of them, it would be quite a race. A more sensible sceanario would be for one of the millionaires to take on U.S . Senator Robert Menendez while the other takes on Holt.
So while redistricting Pallone and Smith into the same district could make the Republican nomination contest in the Holt’s district more interesting, a Pallone-Smith battle is unlikely even should a district be drawn that way. Should such a district be drawn look for Pallone to retire from the House and use his hefty war chest as a down payment for a statewide race for Governor in 2013.
Pallone’s $4 million war chest would clear the field of Democratic candidates for Governor, unless Chris Christie isn’t a candidate or has anemic poll numbers, neither of which is likely. Christie would love to defeat Pallone, which he would but it would probably be a close race. Pallone would then run for U.S. Senate in 2014, assuming Frank Lautenberg finally retires.
Fairleigh Dickinson University released a PublicMind poll this morning that indicates that U.S. Senator Robert Menendez would beat bio-tech entrepreneur John Crowley in a hypothetical matchup for the U.S. Senate election that will happen next year by a margin of 45%-26%.
50% of the respondents have never heard of Menendez.
The Hudson County Democrat first went to the Senate in 2006 to complete Jon Corzine’s term after Corzine became governor. He was elected to his own term over State Senator Tom Kean, JR the following November. Prior to being appointed to the U.S. Senate by Corzine, Menendez represented the 13th congressional disrict in the House of Representatives for 15 years.
50% of the voters don’t know Menendez. The conclusion of the poll should be that the PublicMind is empty.
84% of the respondents said they never heard of Crowley. Why would they? He’s a private citizen who has never run for office. He is an impressive figure, to those who have heard of him. He was written up in the Wall Street Journal eight years ago and there was a movie, Extraordinary Measures, starring Harrison Ford about his efforts to find a cure to a disease that inflicts his children. Brendan Fraser played Crowley in the movie.
Extraordinary Measures was not exactly a blockbuster. It didn’t make Crowley a celebrity. Maybe if FDU polled Menendez against Fraser it would have been a closer poll. Maybe not. If they polled Menendez against George of the Jungle or Dudley D0-Right, film characters Fraser played in the 90’s, it might have been closer.
Menendez outperformed Crowley so handily in the PublicMind Poll released today because he was identified in the questions as the incumbent and as a Democrat. If the question had been, “Who do you favor for U.S. Senate in 2012, Robert Menendez or John Crowely?” without identifying Menendez’s status as incumbent or either man’s party affiliation, the results would have been very different.
If FDU PublicMind follows their usual pattern, they will shortly release match ups between Menendez and other GOP potential contenders for the 2012 U.S. Senate race. The polling was done between May 16 and 22. They release the data and their conclusions piecemeal.
With the exception of polls that rate the executive, the President and the Governor, the conclusion will most always be that the public is not paying attention.
MMM demonstrated that conclusion in March when we conducted person on the street interviews to see if members of the public could possibly care about “continuity of representation,” the abstraction that Rutgers professor and legislative map selector Alan Rosenthal invented to justify gerrymandering.
We repost the video of those interviews today for your amusement and dismay:
Anna Little told NJ.com’s The Auditorthat she is thinking of challenging U.S. Senator Robert Menendez rather than Congressman Frank Pallone in 2012:
Tea party darling Anna Little has made no secret that she wants to challenge U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone (D-6th Dist.) again in 2012. But Little told The Auditor she is thinking about setting her sights even higher by going after Democratic U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez next year.
“There are a lot of people pushing me to do it,” said Little, who upset a millionaire Republican in last year’s 6th District congressional primary, but lost the general election to Pallone. “It’s has been suggested I consider a statewide Senate race. I have not ruled that out, but right now I’m just focused on Pallone,” she said.
It is telling that there are no 6th district Tea Party activists quoted by either The Auditor or Hurlbut. Those who know Little best in the Tea Party movement don’t consider her a darling. Disappointment, distraction and destructive is how Little is considered by many local Tea Party leaders and activists now. What is left of “Anna’s Army” is little more than a platoon.
It doesn’t matter what office Little seeks in 2012. The only way she gets nominated next year for any office higher than Councilwoman in Highlands is if no one else wants the nomination. The Monmouth and Union County GOP leadership are not happy with her. The local Tea Parties say she will have no leg up over any other candidate in 2012 as they will consider all candidates before granting the Tea Party seal of approval.
Pallone’s 6th district borders the 4th, 7th, 12th and 13th districts. He resides in Long Branch which is in the south east coastal part of the district.