The Redistricting Shuffle

InTheLobby has a terrific piece about state legislative and congressional  redistricting.

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NJ Population Shifts to Central and South Jersey

Captiol Quickies reports that one third of New Jersey’s 40 legislative districts will have to be redrawn under a new map due to the 2010 Census data delivered to state officials today.

The average population of the legislative districts is to be 220,000 people.

In Monmouth County,  the population of the 12th district, which also includes parts of Mercer County, has grown and the district will have to be contracted geographically.  Senator Jennifer Beck and Assembly Members Caroline Casagrande and Declan O’Scanlon represent the 12th.

The 30th district which includes Allentown, Farmingdale and Howell in Monmouth, and portions of Burlington, Mercer and Ocean counties will be contracted substantially as the population of Lakewood in Ocean County exploded by 54% from 60,352 in the 2000 census to 92,843 in 2010.  The 30th is represented by Senator Robert Singer and Assemblymen Joseph Mallone and Ronald Dancer.

The 13th district, which includes the Monmouth County bayshore and Old Bridge in Middlesex County has a population of 219,564 in the new census and could remain as drawn in the 2000 map.  Senator Joe Kyrillos and Assembly Members Amy Hanlon and Sam Thompson represent the 13th.  Thompson is also the Middlesex County GOP chairman.

The population of the 11th district, coastal Monmouth from Atlantic Highlands south to Brielle (with the exception of Manasquan which is in the 10th) has declined, which will require the district to be expanded geographically.  The 11this currently the only legislative district with is comprised exclusively on Monmouth County towns.  It is represented by Senator Sean Kean and Assembly Members Dave Rible and Mary Pat Angelini.

The 10th district includes Manasquan in Monmouth County and the northern coastal sections of Ocean County.  Its population has also declined which will require the district to be expanded geographically.  The 10th is currently represented by Senator Anthony Ciesla and Assemblymen David Wolfe and James Holzapfel.  Ciesla has announced that he will not seek another term.

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Bayshore Tea Party Updates

By Art Gallagher

The Bayshore Tea Party Group has launched it new and improved website.

Russ Cote did a really nice job designing the site which includes a welcome from founder Barbara Gonzalez, a mission statement, a description of their committees and feeds from twitter, facebook and foxnews.   Check it out.

Dwight Kehoe has left his leadership role with the BTPG, leaving Gonzalez and Bob Gordon as the group’s co-chairs.  In an email to group members, Kehoe sang the praises of what the group has accomplished since July of 2009 and said that he will “always support that wonderful organization.”

Unrelated to Kehoe’s departure, there have been persistent rumors within the GOP establishment that the Bayshore Tea Party is planning on supporting primary challengers against incumbent GOP state legislators in June.  

Both Gonzalez and Gordon have told MMM on multiple occassions that they have no such plans.  They say their focus this year is on redistricting on the state and federal levels, and to increase the number of GOP legistors elected statewide. They are looking at working in swing districts outside of Monmouth that they hope to bring into the GOP side of the aisle.  Gordon mentioned that they would also consider supporting  Democratic primary challengers.

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Redrawing the State Legislative Districts

By Art Gallagher

The US. Census Bureau will not release the data required for the State Apportionment Commission to do their work for another month.  The commission is holding its organizational meeting today in Trenton.

At NJ Spotlight, Mark Magyar takes a comprehensive look at New Jersey’s population shifts based upon the 2000 census data and the 2009 population projections published by the New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development.  Magyar’s piece is likely to be the most widely read article on State Street today.  His conclusions:

Based on an analysis of population projections, when the new legislative map is drawn we can expect to see a configuration more favorable to Republicans. We could very well see one Democratic district in the urban northeast replaced by a solidly GOP district, most likely somewhere in the middle of South Jersey. That is what happened in 1991 when Republican commission members persuaded the neutral tie-breaker to take the Democratic 30th District in Essex and plop it in the middle of Burlington and Ocean counties where it immediately became a Republican bastion for Senator Bob Singer of Lakewood and Assemblyman Joseph Malone of Bordentown, each first elected in 1993.

If Democrats decide to give up an urban northeast district as part of a retrenchment strategy, it will most likely end up in South Jersey The question for both party’s strategists is whether they want to make the new district a Republican stronghold and allow the the South Jersey incumbents from both parties to consolidate their bases, or use the new district to try to create more competitive districts — an approach that presumably would give the GOP a better chance to gain the seats they need to win back the legislature.

 

 

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New Jersey Loses One Congressional Seat

By Art Gallagher

As most experts have expected, New Jersey will lose one representative in the House of Representatives as a result of the 2010 U.S. Census.  In 2012 New Jersey will elect 12 Members of Congress.  Currently NJ has 13 Member of Congress.

As of April 1, 2010 the U.S. population was 308,745,538 people, according to the Census, an increase of 9.7% over the 2000 Census.  New Jersey’s population increased 4.5% over the decade from 8.4 million to 8.8 million people.  The average population of congressional districts is targeted to be 710,767 people.

A total of 12 seats will shift among 18 states.  In addition to New Jersey, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania will lose seats.  Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Texas and Utah will gain seats.

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