Patrick Murray: “New Jersey voters are probably a little more savvy than reporters”

Monmouth University Polling Institute Director Patrick Murray is a “go to guy” for journalists looking for expert opinions and analysis on New Jersey politics.

Philadelphia Inquirer reporter Matt Katz called Murray to ask him why Christie’s approval numbers are so high when many voters used the pejoratives “bully” and “arrogant” when asked to use one word to describe the Governor and when Jersey mainstream media pundits so frequently criticise Christie’s manners.  Katz mentioned The Star Ledger’s Tom Moran, Inquirer opinion writers, and the Courier-Post editorial board.  He could have included most of the Statehouse press corp, save Gannett’s Bob Ingle and the Capitol Quckies crew.

Murray’s answer was Christieesque in its refreshing honesty: “Part of the issue is, voters of New Jersey are probably a little more savvy than reporters.”

Who talks to more reporters and voters in New Jersey than Murray?  His is an expert opinion.

“Ouch,” wrote Katz, who often writes critically of Christie.

Credit Katz for including Murray’s quote in his article.  If you start seeing Ben Dworkin’s name in The Star Ledger more than Murray’s, you’ll know Chrisite was right when he called famously called Moran, the editorial page editor, “the thinnest skinned guy and America.”

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Monmouth Poll: In New Jersey, Obama leads Romney 50%-42%, Menendez leads Kyrillos 44%-35%

Likely New Jersey voters favor President Barack Obama over GOP nominee Mitt Romney by 8% and U.S. Senator Bob Menendez over State Senator Joe Kyrillos by 9%, according to a Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press poll released this morning.

Regarding the Senate race, Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray said, “There is certainly more room for a GOP upset in the Senate race than the presidential one here in New Jersey, but it’s a contest that few voters are taking an interest in.”

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Poll Dancing

Last month there was something of a controversy over the veracity of the Monmouth University vs the Quinnipiac University polls rating Governor Christie’s performance.  Within one week there was an 11 point swing in Christie’s approval ratings.  A Quinnipiac poll indicated a sky high 59%-36% approval rating for the Guv followed a week later by a down to earth 50%-38% rating produced by a Monmouth poll.  Monmouth University Polling Director Patrick Murray explained the difference by criticising the order in which Quinnipiac asked their questions while acknowledging that his poll is weighted to favor Democrats.

This morning’s Fairleigh Dickinson’s Public Mind Poll  asked the Christie approval question three ways and got three different answers in the same survey.

When asked “How would you rate the job that Chris Christie is doing as governor?” 49% said excellent or good. 49% said only fair or poor and 2% were unsure.

When asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable view of Christie, 51% said very favorable or somewhat favorable, 11% said unsure or mixed and 37% said very or somewhat unfavorable.

When given only two choices, approve or disapprove, 56% approve of Christie and 33% disapprove.  Only 11% were confused, mixed or unsure after taking that survey.

45% of the respondents identified themselves and Democratic or leaning that way, 23% were Independent, unsure or wouldn’t say, and 32% said they were Republican or lean that way.

34% of New Jersey voters are registered Democrats, 22% Republican and 45% are not affiliated with a major party.

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Did Christie’s Popularity Plunge 11 Points in One Week?

Which poll is closer to reality?  Quinnipiac or Monmouth?

How two respected independent pollsters could have such differing results for Governor Chris Christie’s approval ratings has been the subject of quite a bit of chatter this week since Monmouth University released their poll indicating that Christie’s ratings were 11 points lower than reported by the Qunnipiac poll released last week.  Quinnipiac reported Chrisite’s approval rating at 59%-36% while Monmouth said that 50% of registered voters approve of the job that Christie’s doing compared to 38% who do not.

There’s been enough buzz about the difference that Patrick Murray, Polling Director at Monmouth, posted a piece on his blog (cross posted on Politickernj), that took a swipe at Quinnipiac for framing their approval question in such a way that Christie’s numbers would be higher.  Murray said that because Quinnipiac first asked if Christie would be a good selection as a Vice Presidential nominee, respondents were more likely to give him higher marks when asked to evaluate his job performance.

Quinnipiac, on the other hand plays around with the order in which they ask the governor’s job rating question.  In 8 polls over the past year, they asked Gov. Christie’s job rating as the first question in 3 cases and the 3^rd question in one case.  For the remaining four polls, the governor’s rating question was slotted from #10 and #13 in their questionnaire.

When it was the first question, the governor’s positive job rating was only 44% to 47%.  At the number 3 slot, it was 53%.  At #10 or later in the interview, it ranged from 55% to 59%.  It’s worth noting that the lower poll numbers came early last year, and were either closer to or even lower than other polls conducted at that time.  Hmmm.

In the most recent Quinnipiac poll, one of the questions preceding Gov. Christie’s rating presented him as a potential nominee for Vice President.  In other words, the survey framed the governor as a national figure before asking voters to rate his job performance.  Could this be why his rating among Republican voters in particular shot up to an astronomical 92%?

Pollsters know that job approval ratings can be impacted by the context of a poll interview.  That’s why most pollsters try to place these key trend questions in the same place in every questionnaire.  This increases our confidence that any changes in a politician’s ratings are due to real shifts in opinion and not an artifact of questionnaire inconsistencies.

I’m willing to venture that first naming Chris Christie as Mitt Romney’s potential running mate before asking New Jerseyans to rate their governor might have had a wee bit to do with the two polls’ divergent trends.

Mickey Carroll, Director of the Quinnipac Polling Institute, is not interested in getting into a pissing match with Murray.  “Patrick Murray is a very good pollster,” Carroll said three times in a seven minute phone interview with MMM.  “Every poll is different, something could have happened in the week in between the two polls,” Carroll said, “we asked the question the same way.”

When told that Murray said that Quinnipiac framed the approval question by first asking a question about Christie being a potential VP, Carroll said, “that could make a difference, but I think we asked the approval question first. Didn’t we?  Patrick Murray is a good pollster, a savvy analyst and a smart guy.”

Republican strategists, who would only speak on background, were quick to criticise Murray and side with Quinnipiac.

“The Quinnipiac poll from last week showing the Governor’s job approval at 59% is closer to reality,” said one strategist who cited internal GOP numbers,  “The problem with the Monmouth University poll is that it samples, ADULTS, rather than registered voters, or better still, likely voters.   It is cheaper and easier to poll adults, because there  are a lot more of them and they are easier to qualify.   It is harder, and more expensive, to find and poll a likely voter – especially a likely voter who votes in non-Presidential year elections.”

When told that Murray blamed the difference on how Quinnipiac framed the question, the same strategist said, “Patrick is out of his mind.”

In fairness to Murray, MMM verified that Quinnipiac and Monmouth both sample adults who then self identify as registered voters.  However, on their website Quinnipiac says that they ask screening questions, plural, to determine who is a registered voter.  Murray said Monmouth only asks one question to determine if a respondent is registered to vote or not. He said that 80% of his respondents tend to be voters.  78% of New Jersey adults are registered to vote.

In his blog post, Murray acknowledged that his Monmouth poll results are consistently more favorable to Democrats while Quinnipiac’s are consistently more favorable to Republicans.  MMM asked Murray how that could happen consistently if both polls were using random computer generated phone numbers.  “Is it how you weight the sample?” we asked. “That’s part of it,” Murray said, “the rest is that we (Monmouth) call a greater percentage of cell phones.  Cell phone users tend to be younger and more Democratic.”

With that answer, that weighting his samples more heavily towards Democrats and cell phone users, Murray seemed to be confirming the Republican complaints.

“That’s fine, I’m the only one who consistently asks the trend question in the same place,”  was Murray’s retort, “that’s polling 101.”

Another Republican strategist was more upset about how Murray wrote up his poll release that he was with the numbers.  “Political sands are shifting?” asked the Republican.   “It’s a margin of error shift!  Murray sounds like he is writing press releases for the Democratic State Committee, not acting as an independent pollster from an esteemed New Jersey university.”

A third Republican scoffed at the notion of even taking Murray’s numbers seriously, pointing out how badly Monmouth Gannett polled the 2009 gubernatorial race between Chrisite, former Governor Jon Corzine and Chris Daggett.  “Murray’s last poll in that election had Corzine winning by 2 points and Daggett getting 8% of the vote.  Christie won by 5 points a few days later.”

MMM set out to find a Democratic strategist to weigh in on the difference between the two polls, but no one would talk to us.  “Try Patrick Murray,” was the best answer we got.

UPDATE

Murray called shortly after this piece was posted to ask that if his 2009 gubernatorial results were going to be used against him, that his correct calling of the 2010 CD-6 congressional race also be mentioned. 

During the 2010 congressional race, MMM analysed a Monmouth Poll that indicated Congressman Frank Pallone was leading Anna Little by 11%.  MMM concluded, using Monmouth’s data, that Pallone’s lead should be 9%.  Murray agreed, “your turnout assumptions are as good as mine,” he said.  Things got funky when the Little campaign issued a press release announcing that Murray had revised his numbers based upon MMM’s analysis and that Pallone’s lead was then in single digits.  Murray issued a release stating that his “official” numbers hadn’t changed.  He issued a later poll that indicated Pallone’s lead was down to 7% and in the final days of the campaign said a Little victory “could well happen.”

When Pallone eventually won by 11%, Murray said he was right all along.

It was all great fun for MMM, except that Murray stopped taking our calls for a while.

In his call this afternoon, Murray reiterated that the primary difference between the recent Quinnipiac poll and his poll about Christie’s approval ratings, is that Quinnipiac changed their methodology by altering the order of the questions.

Regarding polling adults vs polling registered voters, Murray said he was not in the business of electing or reelecting any candidate.  He said his job is to report on what New Jersey residents are thinking.

Murray also said that his “poltical sands are shifting” comment in the poll release was a reference to New Jersey Democrats who being more aggressive in how than they go after Christie than they have been in the past.  It was not a reference to the public’s approval of Christie, he said.

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Monmouth Poll: Christie Approval Numbers 51%-35%

By Art Gallagher

Governor Chris Christie’s approval numbers have slipped 5% since February in a Monmouth University/NJ Press Media poll released this morning.

51% of New Jersey residents approve of the governor’s performance compared to 35% who don’t, according to the poll.  Among registered voters, 50% approve of Christie and 38% do not.

In the February Monmouth Poll Christie earned a 52%-38% rating from all NJ residents and 55% to 37% from registered voters.

Today’s Monmouth Poll results are markedly different than the Quinnipiac Poll released last week which indicates that Christie is enjoying his highest approval numbers ever at 59%-36%.

One thing that is consistent between the two polls:  New Jersey residents prefer Senate President Sweeney’s property tax relief plan over Governor Christie’s 10% income tax cut.

I don’t have time this morning to study the two polls to account for the difference and it’s too early to call the pollsters for comment.  Anyone who can account for the difference in the polls before I get to it is welcome to do so in the comments.

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Monmouth Poll: Voters Like Christie, They Don’t Like Property Taxes

Patrick Murray has a new poll out this morning.

55% of New Jersey registered voters approve of Governor Chris Christie’s job performance. 37% disapprove.  Among men Christie has a 17% net positive rating.  Among women, net positive 6%

While still upside down, the state legislature’s ratings have improved.  39% disapprove of the legislature, the best rating they have had since 2007.  56% disapproved in April of 2010.  The legislature’s approval rating remained steady at 35%.  Murray didn’t say so, but it would stand to reason that voters feel better about the legislature due to Christie promoting how they have compromised with him.

Property taxes remain the most pressing concern of New Jersey residents.  Murray asked respondents to rank Trenton’s priorties on a 1-10 scale:

New Jersey‘s Pressing Issues

(rated on a 10 point scale)

Tier 1:

8.9 Reducing property taxes

Tier 2:

7.7 Reducing income taxes

7.6 Increasing minimum wage

7.4 Reforming teacher tenure

7.3 Raising millionaires tax

Tier 3:

7.0 Reforming drug sentencing laws

6.7 Restructuring higher education

Tier 4:

5.8 Expanding charter schools

5.1 Same sex marriage

While same sex marriage  is a low priority for New Jersey residents, 52% now favor allowing same sex couples to marry compared to 34% who oppose. For the first time since the question has been polled, residents who strongly favor same sex marriage exceed residents who strongly oppose by a 32% to 25% margin.

The poll, including data tables and Murray’s write up can be found here.

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Christie’s Numbers Still Climbing

By Art Gallagher

Governor Chris Christie is enjoying his highest approval ratings to date in New Jersey, according to a Monmouth University/NJ Press Media Poll released this morning. 

55% of registered voters approve of the Governor compared to 37% who disapprove.  Among women there was a 15 point swing in favor of the governor.  53% of women approve while 40% disapprove.  In an August Monmouth poll, 45% of women approved of Christie and 48% disapproved.

Among Independents, 58% approve of Christie and 34% disapprove.

Monmouth Polling Director Patrick Murray’s questions and his narrative of the poll focused on the national attention that Christie has enjoyed during his fund raising trip, his speech at the Reagan Library, and the speculation over whether or not he would run for president.  Christie’s preparation for and response to Hurricane Irene were not specifically addressed in this poll.

Despite his increased popularity, New Jersey is not optimistic that Christie will be able to forward his agenda through the Democratic legislature.  54% of New Jerseyans say that the Democratic leaders in the legislature are not working well with Christie compared to 32% who say they have been working well together.  Among Independents, 59% say the Democrats and Christie are not working so well together.

Today’s Monmouth poll is consistent with the FDU poll released on September 27.   In the FDU poll, while 54% of New Jersey voters approved of Christie, 47% said that the state is on the wrong track.

As on wrote after the FDU poll and as InTheLobby wrote yesterday  Christie has an opportunity to lead the electorate into giving him a more cooperative legislature, just as he led the electorate to defeat 59% of the school budgets in 2010 when his approval numbers were not nearly as strong as they are today.

Christie has said that he doesn’t think the legislative elections will be a referendum on his performance “given the map” that is gerrymandered to favor a Democratic legislature.  In a normal year, Christie would probably be right about that. 

However this is not a normal year. It is not normal for a sitting governor to enjoy 55% approval ratings when unemployment is at 9.4%  half way through his term.  With the exception a the few “competitive” districts, there has been no campaign to speak of.  Christie has an opportunity here to close the gap between Democrats and Republicans in the legislature.  Taking control of at least one house of the legislature is not impossible.  It is not likely, but it is not impossible if Christie asks the electorate to give it to him.

I hope he does.

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Does Congressional Seniority Matter? Should It Trump Competitiveness?

In a piece published at Politickernj and on his Real Numbers blog, Monmouth University Polling Director Patrick Murray argues that district competitiveness should be less of a consideration in drawing the new congressional map than he argued it should have been in the state legislative map.

Murray says that no other state uses competitiveness as a criteria for drawing their maps and that New Jersey would be at a disadvantage if it did so.

“If you were expecting me to argue the same for the Congressional redistricting process, though, you would be wrong.  The influence of any state’s delegation is based largely on their influence with the upper echelons of Congressional leadership.  Absolute seniority in itself is not important, but some degree of longevity is necessary for members of our delegation to establish those important relationships.

Since few other states use competitiveness to guide their redistricting process, New Jersey would be put at a disadvantage if it did.  Even if it made a concerted effort, our commission could probably only create 3 to 5 truly competitive districts – out of 435 nationwide.  While that might boost voter turnout in those districts, it would do little to increase the influence of New Jersey as a whole. Influence that we sorely need, considering how little we get back in federal spending for every tax dollar we send to Washington.”
 

While this argument is consistent with conventional thinking about congress, I’m not sure that it matches up with the current reality in Washington. 

It certainly does not match up with the current reality of the New Jersey congressional delegation, by Murray’s own words in the last sentence.  If we are getting so little back from Washington with our current delegation, most of whom have significant longevity, what good is their seniority doing us?  Would be do much worse, or any worse, with a bunch of freshmen?

In the current congress, the freshmen are running the show, much to the chagrin of the left wing media, the White House and everyone else who thinks congressmen should go to Washington to compromise rather than to do what they promised their constituents they would do during the campaigns.

New Jersey congressmen have an inauspicious history of leadership and influence.  Donald Payne and Frank Pallone are the most senior Democrats in the New Jersey delegation.  Neither have ever been leaders of note in Washington. Neither has an impressive record of getting legislation passed.

Republican Chris Smith is the longest serving member of the New Jersey delegation.  No one can deny that Smith is a leader.  He has had more legislation passed that any other member of congress.  His influence as a human rights advocate and champion of the unborn is global.  However, he is not a congressional leader.  Even with his 30 years on the hill and Republicans back in power, he is not a committee chairman or even a sub-committee chairman.

Robert Menendez has been an exception to New Jersey’s lack of congressional leadership.  He catapulted over Pallone, Payne and many other Democrats throughout the country in establishing himself as a congressional leader, eventually becoming the third highest ranking Democrat in congress before moving up to the Senate.

Worse for New Jersey residents than the lack of influence in congress that our representatives have, is some members’ lack of concern for the will of their constituents.  As Murray said during his appearance on the Real Jersey Guys Radio show on August 2, New Jersey members of congress vote however they want, regardless of how constituents feel about an issue, because gerrymandering has made their jobs so safe.

This is clearly the case in Monmouth County, the majority of which is divided between Frank Pallone’s 6th district and Rush Holt’s 12th.  Murray accurately portrays the 6th and 12th as among the most gerrymandered districts.  As a result of how these districts have been drawn in the past, much of Monmouth County is essentially disenfranchised from congressional representation.  One could easily make an argument that the suburban areas of Pallone and Holt’s districts do not have a congressman, while the urban areas have two.

Murray and I agree that congressmen need incentive to serve and represent their constituents.  There is no incentive like competition.   The congressional redistricting commission should make competiveness a prime consideration in drawing the new map.  Without competition, seniority is not all that is cracked up to be, as New Jersey’s congressional delegation has clearly demonstrated.

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Christie’s Polling Numbers Rise Significantly

Patrick Murray: Governor May Be Escaping Voters Dissatisfaction With Property Taxes, Managing Expectations

By Art Gallagher

Governor Christie on the Belmar boardwalk with vacationing teenagers from Pennsylvania. Photo credit: NJ.com

Governor Chris Christie’s polling numbers have improved significantly since May. 

A Monmouth University/NJ Press Media(Gannett) poll released this morning indicates that 50% of New Jersey registered voters approve of Christie’s performance while 41% disapprove.   A May18 poll by Monmouth University had the Governor with a 46% approval rating  and a 49% disapproval rating among registered voters.

This is a HUGE 12 point swing in only 3 months.  

Unfortunately, Monmouth Polling Director Patrick Murray’s narrative of the poll, and the subsequent mindless media coverage focused on the respondents dissatisfaction with property taxes and other issues, rather than their increasing satisfaction with Christie’s performance.

To his credit, Murray acknowledged as much in a candid phone interview with MMM. 

When asked why the Governor’s numbers improved so much Murray said, “I don’t know. I wasn’t expecting such a big swing, we should have asked different questions.”

You’ve got to appreciate Patrick’s candor.

Murray noted that the Governor’s ratings had a similar trend last year, declining during the budget debate and bouncing back after the budget was settled. “It could be that once the crying over the budget cuts is finished, people are more positive.”

Murray speculated that Christie may be able to rise above New Jersey residents dissatisfaction with property taxes and manage their expectations better than his predecessors. “He seems to be managing people’s expectations of how much can be done about property taxes.”

This poll should have been should have been broken up and reported as 1) Voters satisfaction with Chrisite and 2) Voters concerns over the issues that Christie is dealing with.   Voters concerns with property taxes, improving schools and the budget are ongoing issues that every governor deals with.  This poll tells us that voters are responding favorably to Christie, despite their frustration with the issues.  It doesn’t tell us why.

Elsewhere in the media you will read that voters are giving Christie only an average grade and that they are not happy with with how he is handling property taxes, education, etc.  

The media is missing the story.

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Monmouth University Poll: 52% Of NJ Voters Approve Of Obama’s Performance

By Art Gallagher

A Monmouth University/Gannett poll released this morning indicates that 54% of New Jersey residents approve of President Obama’s job performance while 37% disapprove.  52% of registered voters approve of the President while 39% disapprove.

The poll of 802 adult resident was taken between August 3 and August 8.  Polling Director Patrick Murray notes that survey was taken after S & P downgraded the nations debt but before the stock market’s steep losses on Monday.

Congressional Republicans registered a dismal 19% approve to 62% disapprove on how the debt ceiling was handled. Congressional Democrats fared better 27% approve to 52% approve.

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