Republicans Rally in Atlantic City

Atlantic City– With Governor Chris Christie out of the country, New Jersey’s snow covered roads remained opened and approximately 1000 Republican activists, and a few guest Democrats, from all corners of the state gathered in Atlantic City today to nurture their dream of hitting the jackpot and winning a majority of seats in the General Assembly in November.

Under a banner that reads DON’T MOVE.  Lower Taxes Are On The Way. VOTE ASSEMBLY REPUBLICANS., Assembly Minority Leader Jon Bramnick met with reporters prior to the kickoff of his convention.  Bramnick said he would welcome an election theme that was a referendum on Governor Christie’s record in Trenton since 2010, saying that the Democrats who control both houses of the legislature stopped cooperating with Christie on his reform agenda.

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FDU Poll: 36% of NJ voters approve of Obama, 42% will vote for Booker

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The political landscape in New Jersey is ripe for a historic shift this November. But a shift in New Jersey’s representation in Washington is not likely to happen because the New Jersey Republican Party is wholly unprepared for the opportunity.  The nincompoops who lead the NJGOP gave up on the U.S. Senate race in January.  They gave up on picking up seats in the Congressional Delegation in 2012 when the new congressional map was drawn.

According to a Fairleigh Dickinson Univeristy Public Mind Poll released this morning, President Barack Obama’s approval rating among New Jersey registered voters is a dismal 36%.  49%, including 21% of Democrats and 45% of Independents, disapprove of the President’s job performance.  Senator Cory Booker is 8 points below the magic number of 50% that an incumbent needs to be comfortable in a reelection race.  Those are the kind of numbers any opposition party/candidate would pray for 8 weeks before an election.

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Bramnick Won’t Run For Senate

By Matt Rooney, SaveJersey.com

Asm. Jon Bramnick has shocked the N.J. political world by declining to run for U.S. Senate in 2014, Save Jerseyans, leaving the field wide open…

His statement:

“After thoroughly considering the opportunity to run for United States Senate in 2014, I have decided to remain focused on my role as Assembly Republican Leader. I appreciate the support and enthusiasm offered to me by countless party leaders, elected officials, and devoted volunteers across New Jersey. I look forward to continuing to work with Governor Christie and the dedicated members of the Assembly Republican caucus to advocate for the hardworking taxpayers of our state. “

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2014 Predictions

Happy New Year MMM readers!  2014 has been a great year so far!

Here’s what we expect in the year ahead.

Senator Cory Booker will narrowly defeat Assembly Minority Leader Jon Bramnick in the U.S. Senate election.  Bramnick will be the instant front runner for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in the 2016 special election.

Marlboro Mayor Jonathan Hornik will be a speaker at numerous Democratic Clubs throughout New Jersey and will establish himself as a major fundraiser for Democratic candidates on the municipal and county levels.  Hornik will proclaim that the only thing he is running for is reelection as Marlboro’s mayor in 2015.

The 11 incumbent New Jersey Congressmen running for reelection will win. The Republican nominee in the third congressional district seat currently held by Congressman Jon Runyon, who is not seeking a third term, will be elected.  Tommy DeSeno will write a column complaining about gerrymandered districts.

Senate President Steve Sweeney will keep picking on Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean, Jr. 

Governor Chris Christie will have more public appearances in Iowa, South Carolina, Texas and Florida, combined, than he will have Town Hall Meetings in New Jersey.

Anna Little will seek the Republican nomination for Congress in the 6th district, hoping for a third shot at Congressman Frank Pallone.  Little will lose at the Monmouth and Middlesex nominating conventions and wage a primary. The Bayshore Tea Party Group will sit out the 6th district primary, citing their commitment to Dr. Alieta Eck’s campaign in the 12th district.  Eck will be unopposed for the 12th district nomination to take on Congressman Rush Holt.

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Forget trying to beat Booker, the NJ GOP should plan for the next gubernatorial election

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U.S. Senator Cory Booker is going to be elected to his own full term next November.

None of the Republicans said to be considering a challenge to Booker can beat him.

It’s not that Booker is invincible, as was widely thought prior to the Special Senate Election last October.  He is beatable.  Steve Lonegan exposed the fallacies of the Booker myth and Patrick Murray documented that Booker’s support is shallow.   Had Washington Republicans not followed Senator Ted Cruz’s lead to shut down the government in October and had State Comptroller Matt Boxer released his audit of Newark’s City Government which exposed millions of wasted taxpayer money and management practices that encourage fraud in September instead of this week, Lonegan might have pulled off the upset that Booker deserved.

There’s nothing wrong with 4 of the 5 Republicans reported to be looking to challenge Booker.  Assembly Minority Leader Jon Bramnick, Senator Minority Leader Tom Kean JR, Senator Mike Doherty or Assemblyman Jay Webber would all serve New Jersey well in the U.S. Senate.

That Darryl Isherwood included Assemblyman Chris Brown is his list of 5 Republican of potential candidates to challenge Booker is more of a reflection of Isherwood’s sense of humor than it is of Brown’s viability as a candidate for any office in the future.  After blaming his Assembly running mate John Amodeo’s 39 vote loss on Governor Christie, Brown will be lottery winner lucky if he is even re-nominated for his Assembly seat in 2015.  “What will Brown do after politics?” MMM asked a senior Republican strategist after the gaffe.  “We’ll find out soon,” the strategist said with a laugh.

(Correction:  As a commenter pointed out, Isherwood was referring to a different Assemblyman Chris Brown (the LD 8 Brown) than the one who blamed Christie for his running mate’s loss.  My mistake makes my overall point.  MMM readers are more informed than the average voter.  How many knew there was even one Chris Brown in the Assembly prior to the LD 2 Brown’s gaffe?  There isn’t a member of the legislature with the statewide name ID to compete with Booker~ Art)

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5 Republicans who could challenge Cory Booker for his Senate seat

5 Republicans who could challenge Cory Booker for his Senate seat (via NJ.com)

With Election Day behind us and the end of the year approaching, there is still one political question that has yet to be answered: Who will challenge Sen. Cory Booker in next year’s Senate contest? So far, no challenger has emerged, though several…

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Seemingly conflicting laws create uncertainty over when Lautenberg’s replacement will have to face the voters

If Governor Chris Christie appoints someone to fill the U.S. Senate vacancy caused by Senator Frank Lautenberg’s death, there will either be a special election this year for the remainder of the term, or next November, depending on who’s interpretation of seemingly conflicting paragraphs in Title 19.

Christie has the power to appoint a replacement, but is not required to do so. He very likely will.

The Office of Legislative Services has issued an opinion stating that the Governor can appoint a replacement who will serve until November of 2014.  The winner of the November 2014 election would serve the remaining two months of the term and a full term to start in January of 2015.

Christie could also call a special general election to fill the remainder of the term, which would be proceeded by a special primary election.

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Double Dose of Bad News For Buono

Yet, good news for Trenton Democrats—the NJ Republicans are trying to lose

By Art Gallagher

State Senator Barbara Buono, the presumptive Democratic nominee for governor, received two doses of bad news today (so far) for her fledgling campaign to unseat Governor Chris Christie in November.

1) A Quinnipiac poll released today indicates that Buono has made no progress over the last month in increasing her dismal name recognition.  78% of those polled don’t know enough about Buono to form an opinion. That compares to 79% last month.  Of the few who recognize her name, 43% have an unfavorable opinion.

Christie’s numbers remain amazingly strong. 67% approve of the job he is doing as governor.  66% says he deserves to be reelected. In a head to head match up with Buono, Christie wins 58%-26%, with 13% out to lunch.

2) Even worse for Buono, PolitickerNJ reports that she is likely to be the only major party gubernatorial candidate in the history of New Jersey’s matching funds campaign program not to qualify for the maximum amount. PolitickerNJ said that Buono has raised only $29,000 per week since she declared her candidacy in December.  In order to earn the maximum $2 million in state matching funds for the primary, she would have to raise $216,000 per week over the next six weeks of the primary campaign.

Christie has opted out of the state matching funds program and has raised upwards of $5 million to date for the primary.

Trenton Republicans Trying to Lose

With Chrisite’s polling and financial numbers so strong, one would think that the Trenton Democrats that control the legislature would be concerned about Christie coattails.  Trenton Republicans seem enthused about the prospect of taking control of the legislature, but so far their campaign is deploying the stupidest strategy imaginable.

I’m not a professional political strategist, I just play one of the Internet.  In my not so humble opinion the NJ GOP‘s campaign against Corzine Democrats is the dumbest political strategy since Christine O’Donnell declared she is not a witch.

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AshBritt CEO Deflates Buono’s Hopes Of Making Clean Up A Campaign Issue

Trenton Democrats’ continuing quest to turn Governor Christie’s strongest issue against him suffered a set back yesterday when AshBritt CEO Randall Perkins won over Democratic members of a Joint Legislative Oversight Committee and flummoxed presumed gubernatorial nominee Barbara Buono by calling her on the political motivation of her questioning.

Facing four hours of questioning by the bi-partisan committee chaired by Senator Bob Gordon (D-Bergen), Perkins frequently praised the legislators for exercising their oversight duties, while combatively swatting back Democratic allegations of impropriety disguised as questions.

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Lautenberg will not seek another term

New Jersey’s senior U.S. Senator, Frank Lautenberg, will not seek reelection when his term expires in 2014.

The Star Ledger broke the story with a statement from the senator:

“I am not announcing the end of anything. I am announcing the beginning of a two-year mission to pass new gun safety laws, protect children from toxic chemicals and create more opportunities for working families in New Jersey,” Lautenberg told The Star-Ledger. “While I may not be seeking re-election, there is plenty of work to do before the end of this term and I’m going to keep fighting as hard as ever for the people of New Jersey in the U.S. Senate.”

Lautenberg will be 91 when his term expires.  Recent independent poll have indicated that New Jersey voters favor Newark Mayor Cory Booker heading to the Senate.

Congressman Frank Pallone is said to be ready to challenge Booker for the Democratic nomination in 2014.   State Senate President Steve Sweeney and Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver have also indicated interest in the Democratic nomination.

Marlboro Mayor Jon Hornik said he will not be a candidate.

TV and radio personality Geraldo Rivera is the only Republican who has publically expressed an interest in competing for the Senate seat.  State Senators Tom Kean, JR,  and Joe Kyrillos have been mentioned as possible candidates, as has Assembly Minority Leader Jon Bramnick, Lt. Governor Kim Guadango, and bio-tech executive/Navy Intelligence Officer John Crowley.  New Jersey has not had a Republican in the U.S. Senate since 1974.

In a statement issued to the media, Governor Chris Christie said, “Frank Lautenberg and I have had our differences through the years, but I’ve always respected him for his tenacity, devotion to the people of New Jersey and his love for and commitment to public service. I will always be grateful for his doggedness in fighting with me and the delegation to ensure congressional passage of an aid package after Hurricane Sandy that is delivering necessary assistance to our residents. I wish him the best in his retirement.”

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