The New Congressional Map

The new congressional map can be viewed here.

Give it a minute to download.  It’s a large file.
A few local observations:

Republican Chris Smith will represent most of Monmouth County in the 4th district.

Democrat Rush Holt, 12th district, will no longer represent any of Monmouth County.

Democrat Frank Pallone’s 6thdistrict includes all of coastal Monmouth and Marlboro.  Middletown and Marlboro appear to be entirely in Pallone’s district.  Under the old map it was split between Pallone and Holt.

At first glance, the new 6th district looks to be more competive than the last.  Holt took all or part of Plainfield, a strongly Democratic town where Pallone dominated in 2010 by a huge margin.  Middletown is a large Republican strong hold. Marlboro usually votes Republican except on the municipal level where they have voted in the “LaHornicca” Democrats.

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Republicans Win The Congressional Map Battle

The New Jersey congressional delegation will likely be equally divided between Democrats and Republicans, 6 of each, after the next election, thanks to John Farmer, Dean of Rutgers Law School and the tie breaking member of the redistricting commission.  Farmer told the partisan members of the commission that he would vote for the Republicans’ map when the commission meets in at the Statehouse this morning, according to reports on Politickernj and NJ.com.

The new map will combine portions of the current 5th, 8th and 9th districts and pit incumbent congressmen Scott Garrett (R) and Steve Rothman (D) in a district that gives Republicans a 4% advantage based upon historical voting patterns.

According to the Politickernj story, the new map gives Congressman Chris Smith a larger portion of Monmouth County than his previous 4th district.  The district remains safely Republican for Smith, New Jersey’s longest serving congressman.

The 6th and 12th districts, represented by Frank Pallone and Rush Holt, respectively, remain safe for the Democratic incumbents, according to Politickernj.

The 7th district, represented by Republican Leonard Lance will now be a safer district for the incumbent.

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Redistricting Commission Looking To Limit Towns Represented By More Than One Congressman

Both Democratic and Republicans members of the New Jersey Congressional Redistricting Commission prefer to reduce the number of towns that are split between two or three districts, according to a report on NJ.com.

If they could find a way to reduce the number of two faced congressmen, that would be real progress.

Due to the one person one vote rule, each district must have 732,658 residents per the 2010 census,  it is mathematically impossible to completely elminate fragmented towns.  So says Bill Caster, the Democrats lawyer on the commission.

Linden and Jersey City have three congressmen.   35 municipalities are divided between two districts.

In Monmouth County, Manalapan, Marlboro and Middletown are each divided between the 6th district, currently represented by Frank Pallone, and the 12thdistrict, currently represented by Rush Holt, both Democrats.

Manalapan and Middletown are Republican towns.  Marlboro usually votes Republican on the county, state and federal levels but has been taken over by the “LaHornicca” Democrats locally.

Manalapan has 9,060 registered voters in the 6th district; 15,787 in the 12th.  Marlboro has 9,148 registered voters in the 6th; 15,957 in the 12th.  Middletown has 21,725 in the 6th and 22,264 in the 12th.

A Republican challenger to either Pallone or Holt would theoretically benefit by each of these towns landing in only one district.  A competitive district could emerge if all three towns were united and placed into the same district.   If that happens, maybe Anna Little will give up her U.S. Senate bid and run for Congress again.

Former State Attorney General John Farmer, the redistricting commission’s chairman and tie breaking vote, has said he would like the commission to complete its work today.  By law, the new map must be completed by January 17th.

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The Monmouth Democratic Chairman’s Race

The balloting won’t be until mid-June 2012, but the candidates vying to replace Victor Scudiery as Monmouth County Democratic Chairman are running as if the race will be decided on January 14.

Marlboro Councilman Frank LaRocca and businessman Vin Gopal, an Assembly candidate from the 11th legislative district last month, are building their alliances and working the phones.   LaRocca is the law partner of Marlboro Mayor Jon Hornick.  Gopal, a business partner of Scudiery.  Hornick, considered a Democratic rising star statewide, is all in for his political and business partner as they seek to build an organization to propel the young mayor into higher office.  Scudiery is officially neutral.

During Scudiery’s two decade tenure as chairman he has fought against the state Democratic organization bringing “outsiders” in to fill appointments in the county.  Perhaps the most notable example is the Monmouth Prosecutor’s job in 2005.  Acting Governor Richard Codey nominated Essex County resident Luis Valentin to succeed Republican John Kaye who had held the job for 21 years.   Scudiery objected, wanting the job to go to Monmouth resident Allan Falk.  Scudiery asked State Senator Joe Palaia, a Republican, to block Valentin’s appointment via senatorial courtesy. Palaia stayed out of the Democratic family feud, but Trenton Democrats responded by sending U.S. Senator/gubernatorial candidate Jon Corzine and Congressman Frank Pallone to Airport Plaza to demand that Scudiery step down as chairman.  He didn’t.

LaRocca and Hornick, “LaHornicca,” are seen to be allied with the Trenton Democratic establishment.  They have strong ties to State Democratic Chairman John Wisniewski.  Democratic legal powerhouse, DeCotiis, FitzPatrick and Cole, of Teaneck, are the Marlboro borough attorneys.

Gopal, despite having a statewide network of his own, including a close alliance with Newark Mayor Cory Booker, is seen to represent local interests. During his Assembly campaign he expressed a commitment to building a homegrown Democratic organization.

Alliances in the chairman’s race are breaking along similar lines.   Middletown Democratic Chair Joe Caliendo is backing Gopal.  Caliendo and Howell Democratic Chair Steve Morlino often align their forces, creating an insurmountable voting block.  If that alliance stands, Gopal will likely win.

“LaHornicca” has the support of former Red Bank Mayor Ed McKenna, who challenged Scudiery in 2000.  McKenna’s law partner, Michael DuPont is also in the “LaHornicca” camp.  DuPont is the treasurer of the New Jersey Turnpike Authority.  DeCotiis is the law firm for the Turnpike Authority.

However, the Red Bank Democrats are split.  Ed Zipprich, the municipal chairman and a councilman supports Gopal.

Democratic campaign and media consultants Pat Politano, of Union County, and Jon Evans of Morris County, famous in Monmouth County for running Brian Unger’s Long Branch mayoral campaign in 2010, are supporting “LaHornicca.”   Politano is closely aligned with former State Democratic Chairman Joe Cryan, a Union County Assemblyman and Undersheriff, and with Cryan’s running mate, Senator Ray Lesniak.

As hard as Gopal and “LaHornicca” are working on building their alliances with current municipal chairs and committee members, most of the voters may not yet be identified.  The entire county committee, of both parties, is up for election in the June 5, 2012 primary.  The current Monmouth County Democratic Committee has over 400 vacancies.   The team that gets candidates to run for those empty seats could control the Monmouth Democratic Organization through June of 2014.

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Little Opening A U.S. Senate Campaign Account. Shakeup In Her Army

By Art Gallagher

Anna Little, the former Mayor of Highlands, former Freeholder and the 2010 GOP nominee in the 6th Congressional district is one step closer to challenging Monmouth County State Senator Joe Kyrillos for the GOP 2012 U.S. Senate nomination.

Little told Politickernj that she would be filing with the FEC today to open a campaign account for her U.S. Senate bid.

An embarrasing Little For Senate fundraising letter dated November 28, arrived in former donors’ mail boxes this week.

Atlantic Highlands Municipal Chairwoman Jane Frotten has resigned as Little’s campaign treasurer.  Atlantic Highlands Mayor Fred Rast has resigned as president of Anna’s Army Foundation,  “a non-profit educational foundation created in the image of Anna Little and her campaign for Congress in the 6th Congressional District of NJ.”

Until recently, the race for the Republican nomination to challenge Senator Robert Menendez was seen as battle between Kyrillos and fellow State Senator Michael Doherty.  Kyrillos has a Senate Exploritory Committee.  Doherty has been traveling the state touting his Fair School Funding plan.  MMM has learned from very reliable sources that Doherty is leaning against entering the Senate primary.   If Doherty does stay out of the race, a head to head match up between Kyrillos and Little could be in the making.

Little should take a reality check and reconsider before her dreams of a political future are irreparably shattered.

Little made a name for herself with the stunning upset victory over Diane Gooch in the primary for the 6th congressional district nomination in 2010.   Little’s margin of victory was 84 votes out of roughly 14,000 cast.

What Little has failed to realize, and she stops talking to anyone who tells her the truth, is that she didn’t win that primary so much as Gooch lost it.

Not that her victory was an accident.  The strategy of the Little primary campaign was to sneak up from behind.  I know because I, then still a close confidant of Little, helped design the strategy.   None of the “experts” took Little’s challenge of the county party lines and the uber funded Gooch seriously going into the primary.  That was the key to victory.  Build a ground game to bring out new voters and count on the fact that the “experts” don’t see the Tea Party wave coming.   Even the Tea Parties were shocked by the depth of the 2010 tsunami.  David Corsi’s inexplicable primary victory over Scott Sipprelle in the Monmouth County portion of the 12th congressional district proves that the party establishment was caught with their pants around their ankles.

They won’t be caught off guard again.

The Gooch campaign’s primary strategy was to ignore Little and run against incumbent Congressman Frank Pallone.   It was a good strategy for a conventional time.   Conventional times ended in 2010 before the establishment realized it.

It wasn’t until the final weekend of the 2010 primary campaign when Little managed to get onto TV, that the Gooch campaign realized that they might have a problem.  They tried legal maneuvers, that failed, to get Little’s ads pulled.  It was too late to respond.   Little had successfully used the “surprise them” and  “get the last word” strategies that we had successfully used in Highlands campaigns many times.

The problem with a “don’t let them see you coming” playbook is that it only works once.

A key political operative with close ties to both Gooch and Kyrillos has been keeping a close eye on Little since she declared her rematch with Pallone on election night 2010.

“She won’t get a free ride next time,” said the operative on the condition of anonymity, “we had a thick opposition research file on her in 2010 but didn’t use it because we weren’t taking her seriously and didn’t want to hurt her needlessly.  The file has gotten a lot thicker in the last year.”

With their discharge from Anna’s Army, Frotten and Rast join the growing brigade of Monmouth County politicos who will no longer go to battle for Little. 

Roughly a year ago, this blog compared Little to Jon Corzine over a policy position she took in one of her final acts as the mayor of Highlands.   Unfortunately, it is becoming apparent that Little also shares a personality trait with the former governor.  She surrounds herself with people who tell her what she wants to hear and burns bridges with those who tell her what she needs to hear.

Little had a bright political future ahead of her on election night in 2010.   Then she started talking. 

She declared her rematch with Pallone, announced the formation of Anna’s Army and challenged Gooch, who had funded independent anti-Pallone ads, to a rematch.  She failed to thank her supporters, Tea Party and establishment, who were caught off guard by her lack of humility. 

She’s on the verge of crossing a line from which there will be no return.   She should reconsider and start mending fences.  Many of her old friends are forgiving.

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Naming Public Facilities

The Assembly Transportation Committee released a bill yesterday that if passed will rename Route 19 in Passaic County after Congressman Bill Pascrell.

Now Pascrell, 74, should announce his retirement and save the New Jersey Congressional Redistricting Commission a lot of work.  Doing so would eliminate all controversy over naming a state highway after him.

Barney Frank, 71, the Massachusetts Congressman from Bayonne, announced his retirement after the Bay State announced their new congressional districts.  Frank said he didn’t want to raise the money or do the electioneering necessary to get elected in his new district. 

Pascrell announcing his retirement prior to the new congressional districts being determined would be a selfless act of public service.  The rest of New Jersey’s congressional delegation would want to name a more prominent road after him.  The Resdistricting Commission’s work would become easy and appropriate, as the district to be eliminated should be from North Jersey where the population has declined vis-a-vis the rest of the state.

If Pascrell announced his retirement, the bill to name Route 19 after him could be fast tracked in the lame duck legislative session.  Governor Christie might even sign it, despite the fact that Pascrell was a Corzine caddy, second only to Frank Pallone, during the 2009 gubernatorial campaign.

If Pascrell does not take this opportunity to retire, the question of the appropriateness of naming public facilities after sitting office holders should be hotly debated.  Every member of the Assembly Transportation committee except Burlington County Assemblyman Scott Rudder voted to release the Pascrell naming bill to the full Assembly. Rudder said that naming a road after a sitting office holder was hypocritical and that the state has more pressing issues. 

Rudder is right, but there is a stronger argument against giving away the names of public facilities.  In these difficult economic times, we should sell and resell the names of our roads, bridges and buildings, with all of the proceeds going to either retire debt or build new facilities, thereby avoiding new debt.

There is precedent for this type of revenue generation.  Former Governor Brendan Byrne’s name was taken off the Meadowlands Arena in favor of Continental Airlines and later Izod who both paid handsomely for the naming rights.

Glassboro State College was renamed Rowan University after Mr. Rowan donated $100 million.

The State and New Jersey’s counties and municipalities could benefit greatly by selling naming rights to businesses and philanthropists.

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Does Congressional Seniority Matter? Should It Trump Competitiveness?

In a piece published at Politickernj and on his Real Numbers blog, Monmouth University Polling Director Patrick Murray argues that district competitiveness should be less of a consideration in drawing the new congressional map than he argued it should have been in the state legislative map.

Murray says that no other state uses competitiveness as a criteria for drawing their maps and that New Jersey would be at a disadvantage if it did so.

“If you were expecting me to argue the same for the Congressional redistricting process, though, you would be wrong.  The influence of any state’s delegation is based largely on their influence with the upper echelons of Congressional leadership.  Absolute seniority in itself is not important, but some degree of longevity is necessary for members of our delegation to establish those important relationships.

Since few other states use competitiveness to guide their redistricting process, New Jersey would be put at a disadvantage if it did.  Even if it made a concerted effort, our commission could probably only create 3 to 5 truly competitive districts – out of 435 nationwide.  While that might boost voter turnout in those districts, it would do little to increase the influence of New Jersey as a whole. Influence that we sorely need, considering how little we get back in federal spending for every tax dollar we send to Washington.”
 

While this argument is consistent with conventional thinking about congress, I’m not sure that it matches up with the current reality in Washington. 

It certainly does not match up with the current reality of the New Jersey congressional delegation, by Murray’s own words in the last sentence.  If we are getting so little back from Washington with our current delegation, most of whom have significant longevity, what good is their seniority doing us?  Would be do much worse, or any worse, with a bunch of freshmen?

In the current congress, the freshmen are running the show, much to the chagrin of the left wing media, the White House and everyone else who thinks congressmen should go to Washington to compromise rather than to do what they promised their constituents they would do during the campaigns.

New Jersey congressmen have an inauspicious history of leadership and influence.  Donald Payne and Frank Pallone are the most senior Democrats in the New Jersey delegation.  Neither have ever been leaders of note in Washington. Neither has an impressive record of getting legislation passed.

Republican Chris Smith is the longest serving member of the New Jersey delegation.  No one can deny that Smith is a leader.  He has had more legislation passed that any other member of congress.  His influence as a human rights advocate and champion of the unborn is global.  However, he is not a congressional leader.  Even with his 30 years on the hill and Republicans back in power, he is not a committee chairman or even a sub-committee chairman.

Robert Menendez has been an exception to New Jersey’s lack of congressional leadership.  He catapulted over Pallone, Payne and many other Democrats throughout the country in establishing himself as a congressional leader, eventually becoming the third highest ranking Democrat in congress before moving up to the Senate.

Worse for New Jersey residents than the lack of influence in congress that our representatives have, is some members’ lack of concern for the will of their constituents.  As Murray said during his appearance on the Real Jersey Guys Radio show on August 2, New Jersey members of congress vote however they want, regardless of how constituents feel about an issue, because gerrymandering has made their jobs so safe.

This is clearly the case in Monmouth County, the majority of which is divided between Frank Pallone’s 6th district and Rush Holt’s 12th.  Murray accurately portrays the 6th and 12th as among the most gerrymandered districts.  As a result of how these districts have been drawn in the past, much of Monmouth County is essentially disenfranchised from congressional representation.  One could easily make an argument that the suburban areas of Pallone and Holt’s districts do not have a congressman, while the urban areas have two.

Murray and I agree that congressmen need incentive to serve and represent their constituents.  There is no incentive like competition.   The congressional redistricting commission should make competiveness a prime consideration in drawing the new map.  Without competition, seniority is not all that is cracked up to be, as New Jersey’s congressional delegation has clearly demonstrated.

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Democrats Mum On Schlossbach’s Replacement

Monmouth County Democrats have shrouded the selection of an Assembly candidate to replace Marilyn Schlossbach in the 11th legislative district in more secrecy than a Koch Brothers convention.

They won’t even say where and when the convention to vote on a candidate will be.  Campaign Manager Vlad Gutman said the convention will be “on Wednesday, somewhere in the district.” 

MMM has learned that the convention will be Wednesday, 6:30PM at the Asbury Park VFW.

Democratic County Committee members from the district are being called and urged to attend the convention which requires, under Title 19, a quorum of 50% plus 1 of the committee members in order to select a candidate.  While they are scrambling to get a quorum, the Democrats are also scrambling to find a candidate.  No mention of potential candidates is being made on the calls to the committee members and no one will say who is under consideration or who has thrown their hat into the ring.

Schlossbach’s withdrawal was a big blow to the Democrats’ slim hopes of picking up Assembly seats in Monmouth County.  An internal Democratic poll indicated that Schlossbach had the highest name recognition of all Assembly candidates, including incumbents Mary Pat Angelini and Caroline Casagrande.  While Schlossbach’s name recognition was superior, the poll indicated that the Republican team of Senator Jennifer Beck, Angelini and Casagrande are heavy favorites to win in November.  Beck’s name recognition and favorables in the district are huge.

Despite a voter registration advantage in the district, the Democrats have a very thin bench.  Elected officials like Red Bank Councilman Michael Dupont, Long Branch Councilman John Pallone (brother of the congressman), Neptune Township Deputy Mayor Randy Bishop and Eatontown Mayor Gerald Tarantolo all declined to run for the legislature back in April when the slate of Ray Santiago for Senate, Schlossbach and Vin Gopal for Assembly, all seeking their first elected office, was chosen by the party.  Now that the summer fund raising season has past and polling has been done, the district looks less winnable for Democrats than it did it April, making it less likely that an experienced politico with a base will step up to replace Schlossbach.

Also complicating the Democrats task of finding an Assembly candidate, Santiago and Gopal have made support of gay marriage a central theme of their campaign.  If marriage equality is a litmus test, finding a new candidate will be even more difficult.

Fund raising will be difficult whoever the Democrats nominate, with the possible exception of John Pallone who could tab his brother’s special interest supporters.  Beck is dominating the fund raising race in the district by both raising money for her team and discouraging donors from contributing to her opponents.  Beck called Cory Booker this week to express her displeasure over the fact that the Newark Mayor is headlining a fundraiser for Gopal later this month in Colts Neck.

The Democrats will probably come up with a nominee, if they get a quorum at the convention.  Whoever it is will be taking one for the team and will probably get a new job or appointment some time in the next year.

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A Case For Competitive Congressional Districts

By Art Gallagher

Giving credit where it is do, The Asbury Park Press Editorial Board got one right in their recent editorial lamenting the closure of Fort Monmouth’s commissary.  They give a quick summary of the disaster the closure of Fort Monmouth is and how the entire BRAC decision to close the fort was based on faulting economic and home security data.

Fort Monmouth’s closure and the move of its operations to Aberdeen Maryland was a huge waste of money that compromised national security.  An investigative series by Asbury Park Press reporters Bill Bowman and Keith Brown (which is no longer linkable) documented the waste and fraudulent numbers that BRAC gave Congress to justify the closure.

In their editorial, The Asbury Park Press accurately lays the blame:

The closing of the base was based on faulty economic and security research in the first place, and yet even with the facts on their side, Reps Frank Pallone and Rush Holt, along with Sens. Lautenberg and Menendez could not carry the day.

That is largely due to the fact that the faulty economic and security data was uncovered by Bowman and Brown after Congress had already voted to close the fort.  Pallone, Holt, Lautenberg and Menendez didn’t have the juice to uncover that data before or during the BRAC hearings when it might have made a difference.  Worse, the didn’t have the juice needed with their congressional colleagues to keep the fort in New Jersey.  Maryland’s delegation had the juice.

This latest insulting failure is just one in a decades, maybe centuries, long example of ineffective congressional representation from New Jersey.  Not just Pallone, Holt, Lautenberg and Menendez, but most of the delegation. Every two years during congressional elections challengers complain that New Jersey only gets a fraction of the money we send to Washington sent back, but it never changes.  Has there ever been a House Speaker from New Jersey?  Name on U.S. Senator from New Jersey who could be considered a historic figure.

As Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray indicated during his interview on the LaRossa and Gallagher Radio Show two weeks ago, New Jersey Congressmen have little incentive to represent the interests or philosophies of their constituents.  They vote how ever they want and work on, or don’t work on, whatever they want without regard for the good of their constituents because no matter what they do, their jobs are safe.  Historically, gerrymandering as assured that an incumbent member of congress will be reelected time after time except in the rarest or circumstances.

A competitive congressional district map could go a long way to improving the quality of representation New Jersey gets from the people we send to Washington.  Currently, Congressmen face no consequences for failures like the BRACing of Fort Monmouth.  Despite the rants of congressional challengers every two years about the about of money that New Jersey sends to Washington vs the amount of money that comes back, that situation never changes and our representitives have little incentive to work to change it.

If competitive congressional elections were the norm, rather than a rare exception, New Jersey would get better representation and better results.

New Jersey’s Redistricting Commission has a huge opportunity to create an environment that could lead to an major improvement in the quality of our representation in Washington over the next decade.  If past is prelude, the Democrats and Republicans on the commission will spend the process jockeying for influence with the “13th tie breaking” member.  The commission will predictably produce a winning map for one party which will be a losing map for the other party. 

For New Jersey to have a “winning map” would require at least one party to propose a competitive map based upon population and geography only without regard for the residency of incumbents or the historical voting trends of residents, and for the “13th member,” former Attorney General and Acting Governor for ninety minutes, John Farmer Jr, to do the right thing.

Otherwise, it won’t really matter much which party “wins” the redistricting battle.  New Jersey’s representation in Washington will not likely improve if the people will send there have little incentive to work for it.

By the way, Lautenberg and Pallone are scheduled to make a “surprise announcement” in Belmar tomorrow. 

Pray for rain. 

Maybe Lautenberg is announcing his retirement and endorsing Pallone to replace him.  Not likely, but one can hope.

More likely they will announce some legislation they are sponsoring that will probably never become law or some appropriation they are proposing or maybe even secured that will not have nearly postive impact on New Jersey that the negative impact that the closure of Fort Monmouth will have.

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Pallone’s FEC Report

By Art Gallagher

Frank Pallone at 2010 Highlands Clamfest. This year's Clamfest is August 4-7

Congressman Frank Pallone raised $206,050.06 for his 2012 reelection effort during the quarter that ended on June 30, 2011.  His campaign spent $111,008.79 in the quarter, earned interest of $1080.13 and ended the quarter with $3,223,144.24 in cash, according to the Pallone for Congress FEC Form 3 filed on July 15.

Among the campaign’s expenditures is a $614 per month auto lease, gas and tolls.  Someone apparently had a fender bender with the $614 per month car.  The campaign spent over $900 at Tony’s Auto Body in Long Branch.

Former Governor Jon Corzine’s campaign contributions have not entirely dried up.  Corzine gave Pallone $2500 in the quarter.

One of Pallone’s contributors raised my eyebrows.  Jacob “Josh” Elkes, a stalwart Monmouth GOP supporter and Acting Chairman of Brookdale Community College gave Pallone $250 in June. 

Eileen Kean, former President of the Neptune Township Republican Club and sister of State Senator Sean Kean, gave Pallone $250.   As a lobbyist, campaign contributions are part of the cost of doing business for Kean.

(Blogger’s note:  This is the 1000th post on MMM since the site was relaunched at this domain in September of last year.  Thank you readers, advertisers, contributors and commenters.)

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