Booker is not a lock

By Alan Steinberg

Don’t believe for one minute that Cory Booker’s victory in the U.S. Senate Democratic primary in August is a lock.

Let me say that Cory Booker is a good friend of mine.  He and I had an excellent personal and working relationship while I served as Region 2 EPA Administrator under President George W. Bush.  I actually think that he would make an outstanding U.S. Senator.

There must be something in the poll data, however, that makes both Rush Holt and Frank Pallone think that they can defeat Booker in the August primary. I would say that Booker’s chances of winning the primary are 65 per cent, but no greater.  If Democratic Speaker of the Assembly Sheila Oliver runs, Booker’s chances of a primary victory will be reduced – by how much I do not know.

If Cory Booker wins the August primary, however, he will be elected U.S. Senator in October and will be there for life.

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Seemingly conflicting laws create uncertainty over when Lautenberg’s replacement will have to face the voters

If Governor Chris Christie appoints someone to fill the U.S. Senate vacancy caused by Senator Frank Lautenberg’s death, there will either be a special election this year for the remainder of the term, or next November, depending on who’s interpretation of seemingly conflicting paragraphs in Title 19.

Christie has the power to appoint a replacement, but is not required to do so. He very likely will.

The Office of Legislative Services has issued an opinion stating that the Governor can appoint a replacement who will serve until November of 2014.  The winner of the November 2014 election would serve the remaining two months of the term and a full term to start in January of 2015.

Christie could also call a special general election to fill the remainder of the term, which would be proceeded by a special primary election.

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Pallone Says Booker Is Withholding Funds For AIDS Patients

Plainfield Today photo

Congressman Frank Pallone fired the first salvo of the 2014 Democratic U.S. Senate primary with a “scathing letter” sent to Newark Mayor Cory Booker complaining that the city of Newark is not fulfilling its obligations to the Hyacinth AIDS Foundation, a New Brunswick based non-profit that services patients with HIV/AIDS, according to a report in The Star Ledger.

The Star Ledger received a copy of the letter dated on Friday, May 10, before Booker received the original.

Booker’s staff dismissed the letter they haven’t seen yet, telling the Ledger that Hyacinth’s funding is working its way through the Newark bureaucracy and will be paid out this year earlier than it was last year.

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Could Sanford’s Victory Lead To A McGreevey Comeback?

Former Gov Jim McGreevey. Wikipedia photo

Former South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford overcame the scandal of his marital infidelity and abandoning his state.  He was elected in a special election to the U.S House of Representatives last night.

Could former New Jersey Governor Jim McGreevey launch a similar comeback?

Sanford won by 9 points in a district that went for Mitt Romney by 18 points last November.  Nate Silver argues that 13% of South Carolina’s 1st district voters withheld their support of Sanford over his sex scandal.  McGreevey lives in Rush Holt’s 12 Congressional District of New Jersey.  McGreevey could win that seat if it was open, unless Scott Sipprelle was the GOP nominee, but he wouldn’t challenge Holt in a primary.

But what about U.S. Senate?  Senator Frank Lautenberg announced he is retiring.  Newark Mayor Cory Booker won’t say if he is running, officially. Booker strung the Democratic Party along for too long before announcing he wouldn’t run for governor this year.   McGreevey wouldn’t really be stepping on Booker’s toes if he announced a candidacy for U.S. Senate.

Congressman Frank Pallone says he wants Lautenberg’s job. He wouldn’t be too happy if McGreevey entered the senate race. But McGreevey offered Pallone the opportunity to become a senator in 2002 when Senator Robert Torricelli dropped out of his reelection campaign.  McGreevey doesn’t owe Pallone anything.

Gay Rights is the progressive social issue of our day.  Who would be a better standard bearing for Gay Rights in a New Jersey U.S. Senate race.  Booker, Pallone or McGreevey?

McGreevey will appear with Governor Christie at the Hudson County Jail this morning.  They are holding a press conference about the work that McGreevey is doing as a minister to incarcerated women.  There will probably be YouTubes and spots on the evening news.

Timing is everything, they say, in politics.  A governor driven from office in a sex scandal being elected to congress is good timing for McGreevey.

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Cory Booker Endorses Incumbent Team In Asbury Park Municipal Election

Newark Mayor Cory Booker brought his 2014 U.S. Senate exploration to Congressman Frank Pallone’s backyard by endorsing ‘Forward Asbury Park,‘ the slate of mostly incumbents running in the May 14 municipal election in Asbury Park.

Booker and Pallone both want U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg’s job when he retires at the end of his current term.   The seat is up for grabs in the November 2014 election.  Booker and Pallone are unofficially competing for the Democratic nomination.

Pallone has so far stayed out of the Asbury Park municipal election.  Booker’s endorsement is a boost for the ‘Forward’ team.  If they win, it will be a boost for him in his contest against Pallone.

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Where In The World Is Cory Booker?

Newark Mayor Cory Booker is not officially a candidate for U.S. Senate, but his Booker for Senate exploratory fund is raking in the Hollywood cash.

Last night Booker had a $5,000 per person fundraiser at the Beverly Hills home of producer Jerry Weintraub and Susan Elkins.  Jersey guy Bruce Willis was on the host committee, as were the Capshaw-Spielbergs and Meathead.

Tonight Booker raises funds in the office of prominent San Francisco law firm Keker & Van Nest.

Next week Booker is off to Chicago for two fundraisers scheduled to overlap on Tuesday.

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Lautenberg ailing…..what if he retires early?

U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg missed work, on doctors orders, for the entire month of March.  On Friday he released a statement saying he will not return to Washington on Monday as the Senate convenes after a two week recess, according to reports in The Star Ledger and Politico.

“I regret that I will not be returning to Washington next week as I continue  treatment for, and recuperate from, muscle weakness and fatigue. My physician  continues to advise me to work from home and not travel at this time,”  Lautenberg said in a statement issued by his office.

Lautenberg added: “I am disappointed I will not be present for the opening of  the debate on gun legislation in the Senate. It is an issue I am deeply  passionate about, and my victories over the gun lobby are among my proudest  accomplishments. I am, however, gratified that my legislation to ban  high-capacity ammunition magazines will be one of the key amendments offered to  this bill.”

Lautenberg will also miss the confirmation of U.S. Magistrate Patty Shwartz to the Third Circuit Court of Appeals, a nomination that was initially blocked by New Jersey’s junior senator, Bob Menendez.

“I have worked hard since Judge Shwartz’s nomination by President Obama toward her confirmation, and I am confident that she will be confirmed by a strong majority of my colleagues,” Lautenberg said.

Lautenberg, 89, announced in February that he would not seek reelection in 2014.

Should the senate seat become vacant on or before August 27, New Jersey’s election law requires that a successor be elected in the November general election.   If a vacancy occurs after August 27,  the next election for the seat would be on schedule in November of 2014, unless the governor calls for a special election sooner.  Governor Christie could appoint a temporary senator or leave the seat vacant.

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FDU Public Mind Poll is bad news for Frank Pallone and the politicos who want to replace him

The hopes of Middlesex and Monmouth County mayors, freeholders and legislators hoping to move to Washington in early 2015 as the newly elected representive of the 6th Congressional district were set back a bit this morning by a new FDU Public Mind Poll that shows Newark Mayor Cory Booker dominating the Democratic field to replace Senator Frank Lautenberg.

Congressman Frank Pallone has been considered Booker’s main competition for the 2014 Democratic U.S. Senate nomination among the media and political establishment.  However,  12th District Congressman Rush Holt has almost twice the support among self identified Democrats than Pallone does, according the FDU survey.

FDU surveyed its respondents cable news viewing habits, polling the trustworthiness of CNN, FoxNews and MSNBC.  Given Holt’s surprising showing, they should have surveyed how many of their respondents are Jeopardy fans.  Holt is famous for being a five time Jeopardy winner and beating IBM’s supercomputer, “Watson,” on the TV trivia game show.

Booker leads the Democratic U.S. Senate field with 50% support. Pallone got only 4% and Holt 7%. 32% of the respondents are unsure and are probably Wheel of Fortune fans.

Frank Pallone aged 30 years

Unless Booker becomes incapacitated running into fire, shoveling snow, or leaping a tall building in a single bound, Pallone is likely to remain in the House of Representatives until he’s Launtenberg’s age.

Monmouth Democratic Chairman Vin Gopal, Marlboro Mayor Jon Hornik, former Edison Mayor Jun Choi and Carteret Mayor Dan Reiman best hopes for becoming a congressman is if Gerald Rivera manages to beat Booker next year in the general election and then Pallone beating Rivera in 2020. But that is not much of a hope, as FDU says Booker will beat Geraldo 52%-21%.

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Lautenberg will not seek another term

New Jersey’s senior U.S. Senator, Frank Lautenberg, will not seek reelection when his term expires in 2014.

The Star Ledger broke the story with a statement from the senator:

“I am not announcing the end of anything. I am announcing the beginning of a two-year mission to pass new gun safety laws, protect children from toxic chemicals and create more opportunities for working families in New Jersey,” Lautenberg told The Star-Ledger. “While I may not be seeking re-election, there is plenty of work to do before the end of this term and I’m going to keep fighting as hard as ever for the people of New Jersey in the U.S. Senate.”

Lautenberg will be 91 when his term expires.  Recent independent poll have indicated that New Jersey voters favor Newark Mayor Cory Booker heading to the Senate.

Congressman Frank Pallone is said to be ready to challenge Booker for the Democratic nomination in 2014.   State Senate President Steve Sweeney and Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver have also indicated interest in the Democratic nomination.

Marlboro Mayor Jon Hornik said he will not be a candidate.

TV and radio personality Geraldo Rivera is the only Republican who has publically expressed an interest in competing for the Senate seat.  State Senators Tom Kean, JR,  and Joe Kyrillos have been mentioned as possible candidates, as has Assembly Minority Leader Jon Bramnick, Lt. Governor Kim Guadango, and bio-tech executive/Navy Intelligence Officer John Crowley.  New Jersey has not had a Republican in the U.S. Senate since 1974.

In a statement issued to the media, Governor Chris Christie said, “Frank Lautenberg and I have had our differences through the years, but I’ve always respected him for his tenacity, devotion to the people of New Jersey and his love for and commitment to public service. I will always be grateful for his doggedness in fighting with me and the delegation to ensure congressional passage of an aid package after Hurricane Sandy that is delivering necessary assistance to our residents. I wish him the best in his retirement.”

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Geraldo Rivera Outlines Why He’s Mulling Senate Bid

By Geraldo Rivera, reprinted from FoxNewsLatino

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