The New York Times called the Florida GOP presidential primary for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney at the moment the polls closed in the western part of the state.
As of 8:29 pm EST, with 63% of the results reported, Romney leads former House Speaker Newt Gingrich 47% to 31%. Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum has 13.2% of the preliminary count and Texas Congressman Ron Paul 6.9%.
The Times reported that Santorum, the winner of the Iowa caucuses has started running ads in Nevada targeting Gingrich’s Tea Party support, saying the Speaker’s policies, including support of Wall Street bailouts mirror those of another former Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, and President Barack Obama.
A tongue in cheek post about who the Democrats could get to challenge Senator Joe Kyrillos when their endorsed candidate failed to submit his nominating petitions, generated more calls from Trenton than any other post of the year.
The worst joke of the month has consequences that will last at least a decade. “Continuity of representation,” a political value in the mind of Rutgers professor Alan Rosenthal, trumped competitiveness and the state constitution in determining the lines of the new gerrymandered legislative map.
The stakes were so high that Governor Christie got personally involved in the negotiations regarding the map. But Rosenthal’s was the only vote that counted. The professor was not persuaded by the governor.
The map was so gerrymandered for the Democrats that Christie and the Republicans did not even try to win control of the legislature. The governor, who came into office vowing to “turn Trenton upside down” transformed into the “compromiser in chief” in order to salvage what he could of his reform agenda.
While Rosenthal preserved the status quo for the Trenton trough swilling class, he unwittingly contributed to the creatation of a national Republican rock star, as Christie, freed up from having to work to win control of the legislature transferred his political attentions to the national stage.
Ocean County Republican Chairman George Gilmore told MMM that the Democrats put Singer and Kean in the same district in the hopes that the GOP would waste resources on a contentious primary in a safe district. The real reason was that the Democrats were horrified at the prospect of Dan Jacobson returning to the legislature in the upper house.
Jacobson was preparing a fanatasy Republican primary challenge to Kean for Senate should Wall and Asbury Park remain in the same district. The Democrats, who have never understood Monmouth County, didn’t realize the futility of such an endeavor. But they knew Jacobson and they weren’t taking any chances. So they put Senator Jennifer Beck in the same district as Jacobson, knowing that he would never challenge her in a primary. Jacobson, through his newspaper, created Jennifer Beck. Just ask him.
The new 11th district would be represented by Beck in the Senate and Mary Pat Angelini and Caroline Casagrande in the Assembly. A district represented by three women. A historic first.
Assemblyman Dave Rible, formerly of the 11th, was now in the 30th with Singer and Kean.
The new 12th district provided brief drama due to the fact that the lines created a senate vacancy. Sam Thompson of Middlesex County and Ronald Dancer of Ocean County were the incumbent Assemblymen in the predominently Western Monmouth district. The Monmouth GOP wanted to keep three senators. Thompson wanted to move up. Freeholder Director Rob Clifton had long eyed Thompson’s seat in the assembly, but the senate vacancy presented an unexpected opportunity. Always level headed and not one to needlessly rock the boat, Clifton let the Monmouth, Ocean, Middlesex and Burlington chairmen figure it out. Thompson got the senate nod and Clifton joined the ticket with Dancer running for assembly.
The 13th district became even safer for Senator Joe Kyrillos. Assemblyman Declan O’Scanlon of Little Silver joined Kyrillos and Assemblywoman Amy Handlon in representing the district. Marlboro Mayor Jon Hornick, a Democrat, had his ambitions put on hold by the map makers who put Marlboro into the 13th.
The Democrats did the best they could, but only put up nominal opposition in the Monmouth legislative districts and on the county level.
Former Howell Chair Norine Kelly passed away in April.
Rick Perry trails the president by 53%-35%, Michele Bachman tails by 57% to 30%.
The nationwide poll of 855 registered voters says that 70% of voters say the United States is on the wrong track. 46% of the respondents disapprove of Obama’s performance. 45% approve.
In seven five weeks New Jersey voters will have the opportunity to elect an entirely new state legislature.
Patrick Murray’s Monmouth University/Neptune Nudniks poll conducted in August indicates that New Jersey voters disapprove of their legislature by a 48%-35% margin. Democrats disapprove by 45%-38%. Independents, the majority, disapprove by a whopping 50%-28%. Surprisingly, Republicans approve of the legislature by a 45%-41% margin. Public workers disapprove by 55%-26%.
Based solely on those poll results, one might expect that we’d be in the middle of a spirited campaign with Democrats and public workers rallying to throw the Republicans out of office. Obviously that is not the case. Democrats control the legislature that their base and Independents disapprove of strongly.
Due to Dr. Alan Rosenthal’s decision that New Jersey voters are better off being continuously represented by legislators they don’t know, there are only a handful of competitive legislative races. The Democrats will continue to control the legislature for the next two years. Probably the next ten years.
Part 3
Now that Governor Christie has put an end to the presidential speculation and passionately reitierated his commitment to fixing our broken state, one might think that an election with every seat in the legislature up for grabs coming up in five weeks would be an opportunity for Christie to foward his fixes by picking up support in the legislature. Christie’s poll numbers are surging in New Jersey. An FDU poll last week indicated that 54% of New Jersey voters approve of the job he is doing. FDU also indicated that 47% of New Jersey voters disapprove of President Obama’s performance, down from dramatically from a May poll after Bin Laden was killed that indicated 56% of New Jerseyans approved of Obama.
Yet Christie apparently doesn’t see an opportunity. During the Q&A of his press conference yesterday the Governor said that he doesn’t see the upcoming legislative election as a referendum on his performance “given the map.” Once again the conventional wisdom is that the only vote that really mattered in this legislative election, and the next four, was the vote that Dr. Alan Rosenthal cast as the tie breaking member of the Legislative Reapportionment Commission adapting the Democratic gerrymandered map that assured “continuity of representation.”
Now that Christie is focused only on New Jersey maybe he will launched an unexpected campaign to defy conventional wisdom and the Rosenthal/Democratic map. During his fund raising trip last week the New Jersey GOP was one of the beneficiaries of his efforts. Christie has moved the electorate in unexpected ways previously. During the 2010 school board elections he called for New Jersey to defeat school budgets in towns where teachers would not agree to contribute to their healthcare. Could that be done in a legislative general election against a gerrymandered map? Its wishful thinking on my part. I would love to see him try it but would be more surprised if he did than if he didn’t.
12th Legislative District
Like the 11th and 13th districts, the 12th has more registered Democratic voters than Republicans, according to Labels and Lists. The district is compromised of the northern part of Burlington County (6,448 registered voters), Old Bridge in MiddlesexCounty (34,626 registered voters) Western Monmouth County (43,861 registered voters) and the Ocean County towns of Jackson and Plumsted (36,656 registered voters).
Despite a voter registration edge for the Democrats, 29,702 to 27,482 Republicans and 64,407 Independents, the district is considered among the safest of Republican districts. On the September 14 Real Jersey Guys Radio Show political strategist Chris Kniesler called the district “deep red.”
The Republicans expected to cruise to victory on November 8th are Assemblyman Sam Thompson, Old Bridge in the old 13th district ,who is running for Senate, Assemblyman Rondal Dancer, Plumsted of the old 30th district, and Monmouth County Freeholder Director Rob Clifton, Matawan, running for Assembly.
I honestly didn’t know that names of the Democratic Assembly candidates before reading The Asbury ParkPress’s write up on the district. They are Catherine Tinney Rome and William Spedding. The Asbury Park Press didn’t say where they are from.
The Democratic Senate candidate is Robert Brown of Old Bridge. Politikernj describes Brown as a “veteran loser.” He ran against Thompson for Assembly in the old 13th in 2007 and in 2009. In 07 his running mate was Middletown’s Patricia Walsh. In 09 he ran with Middletown’s Jim Grenefage.
While Brown doesn’t stand a chance against Thompson, he is providing some comic entertainment to the campaign. He has forsaken his liberal Democratic bonafides and is attempting to run to the right of Thompson. He has a Republicans for Brown website and has attempted to use twitter to bait this website and Save Jersey into supporting his candidacy.
Brown wants the campaign to be about Thompson’s state pension. He contends Thompson, 76 years old, is “double-dipping” because he is collecting his legislative salary and the pension he receives as a result of working for state health department for 22 years and the NJ Turnpike Authority for 3 years. Brown says he will give up his $14K per year police disablity pension if elected to the Senate where he would earn a $49K salary. He says Thompson should give up his $49K pension. Thompson says he won’t.
Brown collects a disablity pension as the result of an 1981 incident where he was shot in his hand and shoulder. He killed the perp who shot him. Brown recovered from his wounds and went back to work with the Old Bridge Police Department for five years when he requested a disability pension due to lingering physical and psychological disabilities. He finally retired from the Old Bridge PD in 1988, seven years after the shooting, and litigated his pension for another 11 years before prevailing in the NJ Superior Court Appellate Division.
In response to Brown’s numerous tweets trying to bait me into his nonsense, I tweeted back that he must not have recovered from his psychological disablities because he is crazy if he thinks I am going to help him get elected. I have no doubt that if Brown were a Senator he would recover his Democratic roots and do whatever Steve Sweeney told him to do.
While Brown wants the election to be about Thompson’s pension and his own heroism which he has been trying to parlay into a political career for years, The Asbury Park Press decided the campaign is about the horse racing industry.
In reality, unless something very unexpected happens, the 12th district race is a campaign about nothing as the Republicans will win a low turnout election easily with no credible opposition.
Newsmax is reporting that Governor Chris Christie is reconsidering his decision not to be a presidential candidate in 2012 and will make his new decision within days.
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is reconsidering his decision not to enter the 2012 presidential race — and he says he will let top Republican donors know within days about his plans, Newsmax has learned.
During the past few weeks, several leading Republican donors and fundraisers have been urging the popular Republican governor to reconsider his decision not to run and to enter the GOP primary.
These Christie supporters note that significant GOP support has remained on the sidelines of the primary fight. Many leading fundraisers have yet to commit to any current primary contender, including frontrunners Rick Perry and Mitt Romney.
Newsmax has learned that the effort to draft Christie culminated in a hush-hush powwow held in the past week with Christie and several notable Republican billionaires.
A source familiar with the meeting suggested that Christie seemed inclined to enter the race but said he needed more time.
Christie promised to make a final decision “within two weeks,” the source said.
Another source involved in GOP fundraising tells Newsmax that that uncommitted fundraisers and donors have been receiving phone calls from top political aides to Christie, seeking their feedback about his possible entry into the race.
In what is being viewed as a stinging rebuke to President Obama, the largely Jewish 9th Congressional District of New York elected Republican Bob Turner to the House of Representatives yesterday in a special election to replace disgraced former Congressman Anthony Weiner.
The congressional seat had previously been held by Chuck Schumer and Geraldine Ferraro. The seat has been filled by a Democrat since 1923.
A MMM reader wrote:
You do not know how important this was. I lived in that district. When Schumer ran he would get 88-90 percent of the vote. R’s would put up a token. This is like a D winning in Rumson. This district is so ingrained with the New Deal it shows that Obama is very vulnerable because the district voters were not voting against Weprin or voting for Turner. They were voting against the Big “O.”
A Quinnipiac poll released this morning indicates that Governor Chris Christie’s approval numbers have rebounded since their June 21 poll. Today New Jersey narrowly approves of the Governor’s performance, 47%-46%. In June Christies’s approval rating was upside down, 44%-47%.
“By a 50-35 percent margin, New Jersey voters like Gov. Christie as a person,” said the Quinnipiac release.
As opposed to what? An alien? A pet? A superhero? Christie did not have to provide a copy of his birth certificate to earn that popularity.
Obama in trouble
President Obama’s approval ratings have taken a huge 10 point negative swing in New Jersey since the June 21 Quinnipiac poll.
In June New Jersey voters approved of the President’s performance, 50-46 percent. Today New Jersey voters disapprove of how the President is doing his job by 52-44 percent. These are Obama’s worst numbers ever in New Jersey.
Unless Obama’s New Jersey numbers improve, Senator Robert Menendez’s reelection prospects are in jeopardy. Menendez’s numbers have been anemic and are declining. In June only 45% of NJ voters approved of Menendez vs 38% who disapproved. Today 39% approve vs 42% who disapprove. Only 41% say Menendez deserves to be reelected vs 43% say he does not. Yet, by a 45-39 percent margin voters say they would back him over an unnamed Republican. Republicans need to nominate a named candidate.
Senate President Stephen Sweeney and Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver should thank the Lord that their positions are not subject to a statewide ballot.
Sweeney’s numbers are 23% approve to 40% disapprove. He has suffered a 10 point drop since June.
Oliver fares better only because 54% of New Jersey voters don’t know who she is. 21% of voters approve of the Speaker’s performance and 25% disapprove. Oliver has suffered a 6 point drop since June.
Gender Gap
Men approve of Christie 58-36 percent while woman disapprove of him 55-37 percent.
Women approve of Obama 51-44 percent. Men disapprove 60-37 percent.
MMM accepts responsibility for the gender gap. According to the web tracking site alexa.com, MMM’s audience is overwhelmingly men with children and graduate degrees. We need a female writer or two.
It’s not the economy. It’s not foreign policy. It’s not the failure of Washington to function. It’s not the loss of respect for America and the strength of America. It’s not the failure to improve the educational system. It’s not unemployment or the downgrading of our debt. Obama’s greatest failure transcends the Presidency. His greatest failure is an affront to the fundament of our society.Lessons often come not from a single event, but from a juxtaposition of events. The riots in London, and the flash mobs in Philadelphia come during a week when Obama has blamed Congress, the system, the Tea Party, the Arab Spring and, in what is surely to become a historical reference for excuses, the Japanese Tsunami, for his inability to get a handle on the economy and unemployment.
The lesson here is not about a President blaming others for his failures. That surely is not unique. The lesson here relates to an historically squandered opportunity. Obama’s rise to the Presidency is a compelling story. Abandoned by his father at an extremely young age, he was raised by his mother and, in his words, white racist grandmother. So many young people and adults have used such a background as an excuse for failure. But Obama did not use it as an excuse. He strengthened himself by this adversity rising to the very top in spite of ample opportunity to blame his others for any inability to succeed. Psychiatrists’ couches are filled with adults bemoaning their fate and blaming their parents for their own failures. So many young people rely on the ability to blame one or both parents or their neighborhoods for justification for their failure. Obama’s rise to the Presidency against overwhelming odds is the quintessential American story. He would have been a beacon to those who have a choice between overcoming obstacles to succeed, and using the obstacles as a convenient excuse for failure. The rioters in London blame others for their financial circumstance. The flash mobs in Philadelphia blame others for their feelings of disenfranchisement. And Obama blames the Tsunami, as if G-d himself wanted not only to assure Obama’s failure, but to do it in a clandestine manner, on the other side of the globe.
By overcoming the harshest of circumstances, Obama earned the opportunity to tell the young people of America, the minorities in America, the urban disenfranchised in America that there is no obstacle that could not be overcome. He didn’t blame his father or his grandmother or anyone else. He rose above his circumstances. He reached the ultimate pinnacle of his journey with a campaign motto that was, after all, “Yes, we can.” That in the three years of his Presidency this motto has evolved into “everyone and everything is conspiring to prevent me from succeeding” is Obama’s greatest failure.
