Legislative Redistricting Could Create Havoc For Incumbents

By Art Gallagher

The New Jersey Legislative Reapportionment Commission has until April 3rd to produce a new map of legislative districts.  Candidates for State Senate and Assembly from the major parties will have to submit their nominating petitions during the week of April 11th, unless there is legislation that changes the date of the petition submission and/or the primary.

Patrick Murray of the Monmouth University Polling Institute has produced two maps for columns he has written at Politickernj.  Both his “Constitutional” map, which Murray concedes is only almost constitutional as conflicting standards make a purely constitutional map impossible, and his “Competitive” map would create conflicts among Monmouth County incumbent legislators based upon their residency.

Murray’s “constitutional map” (town list here) would put Assemblymen Declan O’Scanlon (Little Silver) and Dave Rible in the 11th district, based upon their respective residencies, and move Assemblywoman Mary Pat Angelini (Ocean Township) into the 9th where there would be a seat available as Murray’s constitutional map moves Assembly incumbents Brain Rumpf and Diane Grove into the 2nd district. 

Senators Jennifer Beck and Joe Kyrillos would be competing for the Senate seat in the 13th.  Robert Singer would become the incumbent Senator in the 12th district (Beck’s seat) and there would be an Assembly vacancy in 12.  The 12th vacancy would presumably be filled by a resident of Colts Neck, Farmingdale, Howell, Jackson or Lakewood.   Lakewood would be the largest town in the district by population.

Murray’s “competitive” map (town list), like his “constitutional” map also puts Red Bank and Middletown in the 13th district, pitting Beck and Kyrillos against each other.  The competitive map moves Old Bridge out of the 13th into a newly constituted 40th district comprised of Middlesex County towns.  This moves Sam Thomspon (Old Bridge) into a more competitive district.  Declan O’Scanlon (Little Silver) would be an incumbent in the new 13th.

Caroline Casagrande (Colts Neck) in the only incumbent in Murray’s competitive 12th.  Casagrande could step up and seek the Senate seat, creating two Assembly vacancies.  Look for Freeholder Director Rob Clifton (Matawan) to seek a seat in the legislature in this scenario.  Freeholder Lillian Burry (Colts Neck) could be a contender too.  On the Democratic side, Marlboro Mayor Jon Hornick would be a likely contender for a vacant seat.  A Casagrande vs. Hornick battle for Senate could be a classic race. 

All incumbents are safe in Murray’s competitive 11th.

One source close to the redistricting process told me that Murray’s maps are a “nice rainy day read,” and that neither the Democrats or Republicans proposed maps are close to his scenarios.  I guess that makes this piece a nice rainy day read too.

There will be a great deal of uncertainty and speculation until the actual new map is released.  And there is uncertain information about how incumbent conflicts based upon residency would be handled. One GOP leader told me that “he thought” that someone could run for a seat in a district that they don’t live in, but would have to move into the district within one year if they won.   Another official said there in no residency requirement in the State Constitution and that statutes governing residency could be easily changed after the new map is released.

Whatever happens there will be a lot of moving and shaking during the first couple of weeks in April, and a lot of hair pulling until then.

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NJ Population Shifts to Central and South Jersey

Captiol Quickies reports that one third of New Jersey’s 40 legislative districts will have to be redrawn under a new map due to the 2010 Census data delivered to state officials today.

The average population of the legislative districts is to be 220,000 people.

In Monmouth County,  the population of the 12th district, which also includes parts of Mercer County, has grown and the district will have to be contracted geographically.  Senator Jennifer Beck and Assembly Members Caroline Casagrande and Declan O’Scanlon represent the 12th.

The 30th district which includes Allentown, Farmingdale and Howell in Monmouth, and portions of Burlington, Mercer and Ocean counties will be contracted substantially as the population of Lakewood in Ocean County exploded by 54% from 60,352 in the 2000 census to 92,843 in 2010.  The 30th is represented by Senator Robert Singer and Assemblymen Joseph Mallone and Ronald Dancer.

The 13th district, which includes the Monmouth County bayshore and Old Bridge in Middlesex County has a population of 219,564 in the new census and could remain as drawn in the 2000 map.  Senator Joe Kyrillos and Assembly Members Amy Hanlon and Sam Thompson represent the 13th.  Thompson is also the Middlesex County GOP chairman.

The population of the 11th district, coastal Monmouth from Atlantic Highlands south to Brielle (with the exception of Manasquan which is in the 10th) has declined, which will require the district to be expanded geographically.  The 11this currently the only legislative district with is comprised exclusively on Monmouth County towns.  It is represented by Senator Sean Kean and Assembly Members Dave Rible and Mary Pat Angelini.

The 10th district includes Manasquan in Monmouth County and the northern coastal sections of Ocean County.  Its population has also declined which will require the district to be expanded geographically.  The 10th is currently represented by Senator Anthony Ciesla and Assemblymen David Wolfe and James Holzapfel.  Ciesla has announced that he will not seek another term.

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Census Data Due Today

Internal State Population Data Will Be Used By Redistricting Commission To Draw New Legislative District Map

By Art Gallagher

The U.S. Census Bureau sent local 2010 Census data to New Jersey officials yesterday, according to a media advisory.

Upon confirmation of receipt, the Census Bureau data will be available for download here.

The data will include summaries of population totals, as well as data on race, Hispanic origin and voting age. These data will be presented for multiple geographies within the state, such as census blocks, tracts, voting districts, cities, counties and school districts.

The bi-partisan Redistricting Commission, 5 Democrats and 5 Republicans, are charged with creating a new legislative map based on the new population figures within 30 days.  Should they fail to agree on a map, which is usually the case, the State Supreme Court Justice Stuart Rabner will appoint an 11th member of the commission and 30 additional days are provided to construct a map.

Various citizens groups, including the Bayshore Tea Party,  are expected to construct maps and submit them for consideration to the Redistricting Commission for consideration.

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Gifts For Trenton Dems, Rivera-Soto and The NJEA

By Art Gallagher

Assembly Minority Leader Alex DeCroce simultaneously played the roles of Scrooge and Santa Claus this week.

With his inartful comments about people receiving unemployment benefits, and his equally ignoble apology wherein he tried to deflect the attention to the dual office holding of the Legislature’s Democratic leadership and accused Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver of playing the race card in her criticism of his remarks, DeCroce appeared as Scrooge to “these people” on the unemployment dole and Santa to the Trenton Democrats, Supreme Court Justice Rivera-Soto and the NJEA.

While the Legislature should be focused on reforming civil service and COAH before the 2 % property tax increase cap takes effect on January 1, the leadership was engaged in what Governor Christie called a “food fight” over DeCroce’s gaffes.

Rather than drawing attention to dual office holding and Oliver’s willingness to play the race card, DeCroce deflected media attention away from the controversy over Rivera-Soto’s unwillingness to participate in State Supreme Court decisions so long as a temporary justice is sitting on the court.  The NJEA was really let off the hook by DeCroce’s remarks as the main stream media apparently completely missed the explosive videosreleased by citizen journalist James O’Keefe that expose union leaders promising to protect teachers who engage in sexual behavior with students.

The gift that DeCroce gave the Democrats may well keep giving throughout 2011 when the entire legislature will be on the November ballot.  

If the Legislative Redistricting Commission draws an equitable map New Jersey should have the first competitive legislative elections in 12 years. For most of the last decade New Jersey cast more Republican votes than Democratic votes for legislators, yet Democrats have dominated the Senate and the Assembly due to gerrymandering of the districts.  A new district map is due this coming winter.

If the coming election appears to be competitive and if DeCroce is effectively running for Assembly Speaker, count on the New Jersey Democratic machine running against DeCroce in much the same way the GOP ran against Nancy Pelosi in the recent national election.

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Grading the Governor

By Art Gallagher

Tom Moran is the editorial page editor of the Star Ledger and the reporter who unwittingly made Governor Chris Christie a YouTube sensation.

Moran decided that its time to grade the Governor.  In a column published on Sunday, the pernicious pundit acknowledges that independent polls indicate that the voters are rating the Governor with A’s and B’s. He spends the rest of the column telling the voters (us) why they (we) are wrong about Christie. Moran say Christie only gets a C.

It’s a good thing that New Jersey pays little heed to Moran. If we did, Chris Daggett would be Governor and Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver would be taken seriously.

Moran gives Christie high marks for courage, calling the Governor a cage fighter for his cause.  Despite this A, Moran gives Christie demerits for failing to compromise.  This has been a theme of Moran’s throughout the year. Christie came to Trenton promising to turn the place upside down.  Moran wants him to be nice while breaking the furniture.

Moran even gives the Governor a B on the budget, even though he calls Christie’s claim that he plugged an $11 billion budget hole “farcical.”

On the 2% property tax cap, Moran says Christie will earn a spot on the honor roll if it works, but so far it hasn’t. Duh. It hasn’t even gone into effect yet, and the “tool kit” negotiations with the Democratic legislative leadership are ongoing. Moran criticises Christie for not caving and accepting Oliver’s and Senate President Steve Sweeney’s first offer.

Moran takes Christie to task for calling Oliver a liar over her assertion that she tried to meet with Christie over the “tool kit.”

Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver was shocked when she learned that the governor had accused her of lying.

“That has irreparably affected my ability to work with this governor,” she says. “For him to cast aspersions on my integrity and say I would lie? That did it. That showed me I really cannot have a trusting relationship with this governor. Because he will distort the truth. He will stand up and lie.

“It was a game changer for me, a total game changer.”

Will Oliver’s resignation as Speaker be forthcoming?  If she can’t or won’t work with the Governor she has no business being Speaker.   Oliver should be grateful that the Governor and most of the media gave her (and Moran) a pass when she called the Governor racist in an earlier Moran column.

Moran seems to think it is a problem for Christie that Oliver and U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg “hate his guts.” 

U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg felt this sting as well. After he criticized the governor for killing the Hudson River tunnel project, the governor lashed out.

“All he knows how to do is blow hot air,” Christie said. “So I don’t really care what Frank Lautenberg has to say about much of anything.”

This is the downside of the governor’s straight talk. He has to work with Oliver and Lautenberg, like it or not. And now they both seem to hate his guts.

“Look, I worked with Tom Kean and Christie Whitman, and had no problems,” Lautenberg says. “This is really unusual. There’s been hardly any communication from his office, and I’m on the Appropriations Committee. I put my heart and soul into this, and to have someone calling me names and trying to shame me? It’s incomprehensible.”

Lautenberg is old and has been very sick for most of the year. He can be forgiven for not noticing that Christie is not Tom Kean or Christie Whitman.  Now that he’s woken up, he’ll start comprehending, if his heart and soul are really in his job.  How effective has he been for us on the Appropriations Committee anyway?

Moran is right about one thing.  Christie hasn’t delivered yet.  But that is not the measure by which to grade a Governor 11 months into his term.  Moran is a liberal ideologue masquerading as a moderate.  Like ideologues on the right who are critical of Christie because he hasn’t fixed all the inequities of New Jersey government in 11 months, he is driven only by his own narrow agenda.

The NJEA is having a news conference in Trenton today to propose education reforms including “significant reform of the tenure system.”   That is remarkable.  Even if the proposed reforms are full of loop holes, which as a Jersey cynic I suspect they will be, the fact that the NJEA has entered the reform conversation is truly remarkable.  Chris Christie made that happen.

Civil Service and binding arbitration is going to be reformed.  Mayors and councils are going to be unbound from the ties that have driven property taxes to catastrophic levels and be empowered to truly manage their communities rather than rubber stamp state mandates. That is unbelievable. Chris Christie made that happen.

The 2% property tax cap, even with its exceptions, will truly force a reduction in the size of government, especially when inflation kicks in. Share services will become a reality out of necessity, rather than something community leaders pay lip service to during elections.

Chris Christie has changed the tone and transformed the direction of government in New Jersey. “Changed has arrived” he declared in his inaugural address.  He is deliverying change.  Trenton is not quite upside down yet, but it is surely tilted.  He can’t be graded by the old score card, because he has changed the game in New Jersey and given Governors throughout the nation, and our leaders in Washington new rules.

Rather than a report card, lets judge Christie with a scorecard.

Christie is leading by a wide margin as the first quarter of his term comes to a close.  Yet, the opposition of special interests and trough swillers have been studying the films and making adjustments.  The final minutes of the quarter are critical as the effectiveness of the tool kit will be determined.  Next year, the second quarter, is when the real heavy lifitng will start. Legislative redistricting, the budget and the legislative election will dominate the agenda.  Municipal budgets drawn under the 2% cap will dominate the news.  As the economy improves, if it does, “we don’t have the money” will not work as well in forcing reforms.

Christie gets an A for his first year.  Next year will be the real test.  Mid-terms will be in November.  If the voters give Christie and A or B in the form of a Republican legislature, we’ll find out what “turning Trenton upside down” really means.

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Trenton Democrats Need To Get Busy On Christie’s “Tool Kit”

The Democratic leadership of the State Legislature went along with Governor Chris Christie in capping NJ’s property tax increases at 2%  last July with the understanding that they would get to work on and pass the governor’s “tool kit” which enables municipal leaders to responsibly reduce the cost of local government in September.

Rather than focusing on municipal government reform,  the Democratic leadership is focusing on the Christie administrations failed “Race to the Top”  application for $400 million in federal education dollars.  Nothing that the Democrats discover in their “Race to the Top” circus will bring NJ the $400 million the Christie administration applied for.  That $400 million is not coming, just as Frank Pallone’s $400 million to count fish is not coming.

Trenton Democrats need to put policy over politics.  They can hold hearings on the Race to the Top snafu after they have passed the tool kit.  They will get just as much political mileage and just as much money (none) from Race to the Top hearings held in December or January as they will from hearings held now.

Failure to pass the tool kit will lead to massive municipal layoffs and service cuts throughout New Jersey while property taxes increase by 2%.   This week, just in Monmouth County, we have seen two clear examples of why the tool kit is necessary.  In Belmar a mediator awarded the police department a 15% salary increase while Highlands announced that they might layoff 12 of their 53 employees, including three police officers.  There will be literally hundreds of stories like this throughout the state if the legislature doesn’t pass the tool kit legislation before municipal leaders start crafting their 2011-2012 budgets.

Maybe that is what Senate President Steve Sweeney and Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver want to happen.  Maybe their focus is on next year’s state legislative elections and they think they have a better chance of keeping control of the legislature if New Jersey’s municipalities are in chaos next year with rising crime and garbage piling up on the streets because only the most highly paid municipal employees are still working while their former junior colleagues are collecting unemployment or moving out of state to take lower paying government jobs elsewhere.

Sweeney and Oliver wouldn’t do that, would they?  Will it work if they do?  I don’t think so.

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