Remember Chris Daggett?

He ran for Governor last year as an Independent.  MoreMonmouthMusings broke the story that the Democrats paid for robo calls for Daggett in the closing days of the 2009 campaign.  Shameless and desperate, the Dems kept making those calls even after it was all over the news that they were paying for them and after Daggett himself condemned them for doing so.

There are plenty of signs that the Democrats are equally shameless and desperate this year as the GOP is poised to take control of the New Jersey Congressional delegation with victories in the 3rd, 6th and 12th districts.

In the 3rd district, the press has finally confirmed what everybody knew.  The Democrats put a 3rd party “Tea Party” candidate on the ballot to syphon votes away from Republican Jon Runyan in order to help freshman Democratic Congressman John Adler retain his seat in a traditionally Republican district.

The biggest indicator that Scott Sipprelle is winning in the 12th district is that Rush Holt has agreed to debates.  Holt doesn’t even like to take live questions from his constituents.  Rush is probably taking comfort from the fact that liberal Ben Dworkin of Rider University is moderating.  Dworkin proclaimed his liberalness on his facebook page until very recently. He used to be the Assistant Director of Research for NJ Democratic Assembly Office.

Who would have thought that Anna Little would have been within single digits of Frank Pallone 4 weeks before election day?  Who besides me, Mike Laffey, Dwight Kehoe, Bob Gordon, Barbara Gonzalez and Brian Hegarty?  Russ Cote.  Maybe Mickey Gooch too.  He’s got 5-1 odds on Little.

Pallone hasn’t been in a competitive race in 22 years.  He cut his dirty trick budget after the primary, figuring he could cruise to victory and save is $4 million war chest for a U.S. Senate race.  Now he’s resorting to buying everyone pancakes and pleading for help because, in his own words, he “can’t possibly get across the finish line on November 2nd without your continued support.”

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Real Clear Politics: CD-6 A Toss UP!? APP: Pallone Leads By Nearly 2-1

Murray’s Poll Means Different Things To Different People

Real Clear Politics looked at the Monmouth University poll released yesterday and moved the NJ-6 race between Frank Pallone and Anna Little from “Likely Dem” to “Toss Up” . 

Meanwhile, the APP ( All Phoney Palloney?) read Patrick Murray’s poll and wrote a headline claiming that Pallone is leading Little “by nearly 2-1.”   2-1?  Murray said Pallone has a 12% lead.   2-1 would be a 33% lead. 12% is not nearly 33%.

Even my own analysis on Murray’s poll has been bothering me:

Murray classifies a likely voter as someone who has voted in 2 of the last four general elections.  Of the 333,519 registered voters in CD-6, 60,053 voted in 2 of the four last general elections; 23,750 (40%) Democrats, 27,791 (46%) Independents and 8,512 (14%) Republicans, according to GOP records of voter activity.

CD-6 has 333,544 registered voters.  In the last five elections, an average of 157,000 people voted.  The average is 144,000 if you don’t count the 2008 presidential election (254,543 voters) and the 2007 state legislative election(96,950 voters).  Yet, only 60,053 people voted in 2 of the last four elections, the criteria Murray used to select “likely voters.”   Granted, Murray used a different list than I did to measure who voted in 2 of the last 4 elections.  If there is a wide disparity between the two, my analysis of his poll is as flawed as the APP headline.  I think I’ll ask him about his list.

Incidentally, Real Clear Politics also rates the CD-3 race between Jon Runyan and John Adler as a toss up.  RCP rates Scott Sipprelle’s race against Rush Holt as “Leans Dem.”  I find the CD-12 rating hard to believe.  I’m not on the ground in CD-12 as much as I like to be, but I wake up every morning to “I’m Scott Sipprelle and I approved this message.”

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How Low Will They Go?

Adler volunteer, a 64 year old social worker, caught photographing Runyan’s 8 year old daughter

Democrats are appearing increasingly desperate to maintain their power and the money that comes along with it.

We expect them to lie about their opponents and to make silly negative commercials that reveal how stupid they think voters are.

We expect them to play the race card and the scare the bejesus out of senior citizens card.

We’ve gotten used to lawn signs being stolen.

This year it looks like it is going to be worse.  It is only September 15 and there are reports in Middletown of stolen signs and vandalism.

But the lowest of the low (so far) is Mr. Fredric C. Samson of Mt. Holly in Burlington County.  Samson, a 64 year old licensed social worker photographed CD-3 GOP candidate Jon Runyan’s 8 year old daughter while she was playing in her front yard!    Congressman John Adler’s campaign admits to sending a volunteer to photograph Runyon’s house!  What for?  The Adler campaign is already running commercials with picture of Runyan’s house in them.

You would think a social worker would be sensitive enough or smart enough to go get a cup of coffee and come back and shoot the photos when the your girl was not in the picture.

Samson is no political novice. The Courier-Post reports that he is a Burlington County Democratic Committeeman.  He’s a member of the Mt. Holly Historic Preservation Commission.

I’ve got $50 bucks that say he’s a social worker employed by the government.

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