Quinnipiac Poll: Women will put Booker of the top

Lonegan camp says its a 3 point race

GOP nominee for U.S. Senate Steve Lonegan is leading Democratic nominee Cory Booker among Independent voters, 50%-44%, and Republicans, 87%-10%, but women in all demographics are breaking strongly for Booker, 62%-31%, giving the Newark mayor an overall 12 point lead, 53%-41%, in the race to be New Jersey’s next U.S. Senator, according to a Quinnipiac poll of likely released this morning.

Booker’s lead is unchanged since a September 24 Quinnipiac poll that energized Lonegan supporters.  The 12 point lead in September revealed the race to be a lot closer the 30%+ margins most were expecting for Booker.

The poll of 899 likely voters was conducted between October 5 and 7.  If the Senatorial debate between the candidates moved the needle either way, it is not likely to be reflected in these numbers. The debate was held on the fourth, but not broadcast until the 6th.

There is some indication that Quinnipiac may be over weighting Democrats or under weighting Independents in their turnout assumptions. The poll indicates that NJ voters favor ObamaCare by a 51%-44% margin.  Yet Independents oppose ObamaCare by 56%-38%.  Democrats support ObamaCare, 92%-4%. Republicans oppose it 87%-8%. Lonegan has been campaigning against ObamaCare as strongly as he has been attacking Booker’s record in Newark.

In a general election, Independents are usually the largest percentage of voters.  With Independents breaking for Lonegan and against ObamaCare, it is surprising that Democratic voters are predicted to carry the day.  But nobody knows who will turnout for a Special Election on the third Wednesday in October.

Quinnipiac’s assumptions could be on the money.  Democratic turnout in the August 13 primary was higher than expected by most.

The Lonegan campaign continues to believe the race is within three points.  Strategist/pollster Rich Shaftan, who celebrated the Quinnipiac poll in September, posted the following critiques on facebook this morning:

Q-Poll is not a registered voter poll. It is a random digit dial survey where the results are weighted to the 2012 turnout model. They are weighting the numbers because they have too many Republicans completing the surveys and not enough Democrats. This the opposite of what happened in 2012, leading people to claim “the polls” were “skewed.” Pollsters should look at the raw data and not weight it for what they believe turnout will be.

Just spoke to Douglas Schwartz at the Quinnipiac Poll.  He admitted to me they upweight African-Americans, Hispanics and Asians to match the 18+ Census Data.  If he released the unweighted raw data it would show a 3 point race.  And that doesn’t account for their sample being drawn from random phone numbers, instead of registered voters or better yet, registered voters who have voted in two of four general elections.

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Kindler, Gentler Chris Christie Wins First Debate by Not ‘Losing It’

Kindler, Gentler Chris Christie Wins First Debate by Not ‘Losing It’ (via NJSpotlight)

With polls consistently showing him leading Democrat Barbara Buono by anywhere from 19 to 35 points, the only thing Gov. Chris Christie had to do to “win” his debate against Buono last night was not to “lose it” – his temper, that is. To the…

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The First Buono-Christie Debate

In case you missed it.

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FDU Poll: Most voters aren’t paying attention

Booker, Christie maintaining strong leads.  Most New Jersey voters favor Gay marriage

Fairleigh Dickinson University released a Public Mind poll this morning that indicates that 62% of New Jersey registered voters agree that gay marriage should be legal, that 45% favor Cory Booker for U.S. Senate over 29% who favor Steve Lonegan and that Governor Chris Christie is leading State Senator Barbara Buono in the gubernatorial race by 33 points, 58%-25%.

Only 33% of the respondents could name both candidates for U.S. Senate.  23% could name Booker. 3% could name Lonegan.  40% did not known who the candidates are or refused to answer the question.

15% said they are following the Senate race closely. 32% somewhat closely. 27% said they are following the Senate race just a little and 24% said not at all.

At least 26% lied.

76% could not say where Booker stands on the National Security Agency’s practice of monitoring domestic phone calls and emails.  75% could not say where Lonegan stands on the issue. 55% could not say where Booker stands on stricter gun control. 73% could not say where Lonegan stands on gun control.

Similarly, majorities could not say where Christie or Buono stand on gun control or the minimum wage.  61% do not know where Buono stands on gay marriage. 57% know that Christie is opposed to gay marriage.

FDU did not poll New Jersey’s attitude about Miley Cyrus or twerking.

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Hazlet Municipal Race: Meet the Candidates

Courtesey of John Schneider, JerseyBayShore.com

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Russell and Gopal On The Elections

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D.C. super PAC lashes out at opponents of N.J. Democrats through TV ads

D.C. super PAC lashes out at opponents of N.J. Democrats through TV ads (via NJ.com)

TRENTON — Democratic state lawmakers whose seats are in jeopardy this year are aligning themselves with popular Republican Gov. Chris Christie and snubbing their own party’s nominee, Barbara Buono, in TV ads that began airing over the last month…

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Storms and Fires Aren’t the Only Disasters Our Governor Has Led Us Through

By Assembly Declan O’Scanlon

While storms and fires can’t be ignored or missed as we go through the motions of our daily lives, one of the biggest threats to the well-being of our state was silently ignored – or even enhanced – by the folks supposedly in charge for the 8 years preceding Governor Christie’s election.  When Governor Christie took office our state was on the precipice of insolvency.  Governor Corzine and the folks leading the legislature – Barbara Buono amongst them – continued, either blindly or incompetently, to steer us toward utter disaster.  Some of you public workers still upset over the pension and benefits reforms that helped to dramatically turn our outlook around?  Get real.  The only alternative would have been huge, economy-strangling tax increases, or insolvency.  You don’t want to imagine the negative impact on your pensions – or our state’s economy – had that outcome become reality.

Yet that is exactly the outcome Governor Corzine and the Democrat legislative leadership were opting for.  Barbara Buono herself voted against the unquestionably necessary Christie administration reforms that have helped save our state.  She was also the Senate Budget Chairperson that authored resoundingly irresponsible budget after budget during the Corzine era – digging the hole deeper every step of the way.

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Monmouth Poll: Christie will be re-elected The only question is by how much

“Christie’s level of firm support means the eventual winner is not in question. The only unknown is the final margin of victory,” ~ Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Governor Christie meeting with business owners at McLoone’s Pier House in Long Branch, April 18, 2013. Photo by Art Gallagher

New Jersey’s gubernatorial election is more than a month away and Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray has called the race for Governor Chris Christie.

In a survey conducted last week and released this morning, Christie leads challenger State Senator Barbara Buono 56%-37%, a nearly identical margin to the August Monmouth poll of 56%-36%.

80% of likely voters say they won’t change their mind on who to vote for on November 5.  60% of Independents, 89% of Republicans and 25% of Democrats say they will vote to give the Republican governor another four years.  There is no gender gap. 56% of men and 55% of women say they will vote for Christie.

Buono’s name recognition has improved significantly since the August poll, but as voters get to know her, they are not impressed. 67% have an opinion of Buono, up from 52% in August, but more than half of those opinions are negative. 38% still don’t know enough about Buono to form an opinion.

Posted: October 2nd, 2013 | Author: Art Gallagher | Filed under: 2013 Election, 2013 Gubernatorial Politics, Barbara Buono, Chris Christie, Monmouth University Poll, Patrick Murray | Tags: Barbara Buono, Chris Christie, Monmouth Poll, Patrick Murray | Comments Off on Monmouth Poll: Christie will be re-elected The only question is by how much

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Monmouth Poll: Booker holding a 13 point lead

Lonegan team says it’s a single digit race

With two weeks left in the special election campaign for U.S. Senate, Newark Mayor Cory Booker’s lead over former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan in down to 13 points, from 16 points in August, according to a Monmouth University poll of likely voters released this morning.

Despite holding his lead within the margins of error in the Monmouth polls, Booker’s favorability rating has taken a 20 point hit since August.  The percentage of those who view Booker favorably dropped 7% while those who view him unfavorably increased by 13%.

Lonegan’s overall favorability rating declined 4%.  35% said they view Lonegan favorably, up from 31% in August.  28% said they viewed Lonegan unfavorably, up 8% since August.

Lonegan’s name recognition has jumped 11% since August when 49% said they had no opinion of him.  38% said they have no opinion of him in today’s survey.

Booker has widened his lead with Independent voters from 2% in August to 6% today.  Monmouth Polling Director Patrick Murray said this figure is statistically insignificant.

Lonegan has shored up his support among Republicans a bit.  83% of Republican likely voters say they will vote for Lonegan, up from 79% in August.  14% of Republicans said they would vote for Booker, down from 16% in August.

Lonegan’s strategist and pollster Rick Shaftan says his man is down by only 6%, 48-42.   Shaftan thinks Booker’s shallow support in his base will translate into a lower turnout among Democratic voters than Republcans and conservatives. “Maybe I’m undercounting African-Americans who I have at 8% of the turnout,”Shaftan said,  “I know others expect more.  I do not.”  Shaftan said that the African-American vote was 12% of the turnout in last year’s election in New Jersey.

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